Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.The Brexit War! EU Fearing Collapse Set to Stoke Scottish Independence Proxy War - Nadeem_Walayat
2.London Terror Attack Red Herring, Real Issue is Age of Reason vs Religion - Nadeem_Walayat
3.The BrExit War, Game Theory Strategy for What UK Should Do to Win - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Goldman Sachs Backing A Copper Boom In 2017 - OilPrice_Com
5.Trump to Fire 50 US Cruise Missiles To Erase Syrian Chemical Attack Air Base, China Next? - Nadeem_Walayat
6.US Stock Market Consolidation Time - Rambus_Chartology
7.Stock Market Investors Stupid is as Stupid Goes - James_Quinn
8.Gold in Fed Interest Rate Hike Cycles- Zeal_LLC
9.The BrExit War - Britain Intelligence Super Power Covert War With the EU - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Marc Faber: Euro to Strengthen, Dollar to Weaken, Gold and Emerging Markets to Outperform - MoneyMetals
Last 7 days
Damn the Deficits, Huge Trump Tax Cuts Ahead! - 29th Apr 17
Gold Hostage to Stocks - 29th Apr 17
Warren Buffett Hates Gold… But Here’s Five Reasons You Need To Own It - 29th Apr 17
Stock Market Sentiment, Re-Fueled Along the Way - 28th Apr 17
Calling out the Central Bankers - 28th Apr 17
Fed's Third Inetrest Rate Hike and Gold - 28th Apr 17
USD/CAD - Invalidation of Breakout or Further Rally? - 28th Apr 17
What Happened to the Stock Market Crash Experts Were Predicting - 28th Apr 17
Earth Overshoot Day - Human Population Growth - 28th Apr 17
Misunderstanding GDXJ: Why It’s Actually Great News For Junior Miners - 28th Apr 17
What Makes Bitcoin Casinos So Remarkable? - 28th Apr 17
Financial Markets Improvised Explosives - 27th Apr 17
More Stock Market Short-Term Uncertainty As Stocks Get Close To Record High - 27th Apr 17
Elliott Wave Theory: Is Elliott’s Theory Enough? - 27th Apr 17
Billionaire Investor Paul Tudor Jones Says Stock Market Valuation Is “Terrifying” And He Is Right - 26th Apr 17
The Great BrExit Divides - Britain, USA and France - 26th Apr 17
10 Facts That Show Our Taxes Are Worse Than You Thought - 26th Apr 17
What Trump’s Next 100 Days Will Look Like - 26th Apr 17
G20: SURPASSING THE 2nd GLOBAL STEEL CRISIS - 26th Apr 17
What A War With North Korea Would Look Like - 25th Apr 17
Pensions Are On The Way Out But Retirement Funds Are Not Working Either - 25th Apr 17
Frank Holmes : Gold Could Hit $1,500 in 2017 Amid Imbalances & Weak Supply - 25th Apr 17
3 Reasons Why “Spring Forward, Fall Back” Also Applies To Gold - 25th Apr 17
SPX may be Aiming at the Cycle Top Resistance - 25th Apr 17
Walmart Stock Extending Higher - Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 25th Apr 17
Google Panics and KILLS YouTube to Appease Mainstream Media and Corporate Advertisers - 25th Apr 17
Gold Price Is 1% Shy of Ripping Higher - 25th Apr 17
Exchange-Traded Funds Make Decisions Easy - 25th Apr 17
Trump Is Among The Institutionally Weakest National Leaders In The World - 25th Apr 17
3 Maps That Explain the Geopolitics of Nuclear Weapons - 25th Apr 17
Risk on Stock Market French Election Euphoria - 24th Apr 17
Fear Campaign Against Americans Continues Nuclear Attack Drills in New York City - 24th Apr 17
Is the Stock Market Bounce Over? - 24th Apr 17
This Could Be One Of the Biggest Winners Of The Electric Car Boom - 24th Apr 17
Le Pen Shifts Political Landscape- The Rise of New French Gaullism  - 24th Apr 17
IMF Says Austerity Is Over - Surplus or Stimulus - 24th Apr 17
EURUSD at a Critical Point in Wave Structure - 23rd Apr 17
Stock Market Grand Super Cycle Overview While SPX Correction Continues - 23rd Apr 17
Robert Prechter Talks About Elliott Waves and His New Book - 23rd Apr 17
Le Pen, Melenchon French Election Stock, Bond and Euro Markets Crash - 22nd Apr 17
Why You Are Not An Investor - 22nd Apr 17
Gold Price Upleg Momentum Building - 22nd Apr 17
Why Now Gold and Silver Precious Metals? - 22nd Apr 17
4 Maps That Signal Central Asia Is at Risk of War - 22nd Apr 17
5 Key Steps For A Comfortable Retirement From Former Wall Street Trader - 22nd Apr 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

Gold - It's Time to Climb the 'Golden Staircase'

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 May 02, 2012 - 08:01 AM GMT

By: Money_Morning

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWilliam Patalon III writes: When U.K. subscriber John M. wrote in this week, he got right to the point.

Asked John: "What's happening to gold prices? Why are they dropping?"


For an answer, I speed-dialed Real Asset Returns Editor Peter Krauth - our resident expert on mining and precious metals.

Peter is based in Canada, which keeps him close to the natural-resource companies that proliferate north of the border. He gave me a detailed and insightful answer to John M.'s question.

And he recommended three ways to profit - including an ETF he says is perfect for first-time gold investors.

To explain what's happened with the "yellow metal" - and to project where gold prices will go next - Peter invented a pricing theory that he christened the "Golden Staircase."

"The bottom line, Bill, is that the price of gold has simply entered a consolidation phase - much like it has done numerous times since it entered this secular bull market back in 2001," he told me.

Gold futures were at $1,662.40 an ounce yesterday - well off the yellow metal's high. Here's why.

"If you think back, when gold hit its all-time high of $1,900 last August, we were in the midst of wild speculation that the U.S. government wouldn't resolve its debt-ceiling crisis," Peter explained. "A deal in Congress was reached in time, but Standard & Poor's went on to downgrade the nation's credit rating for the first time in history. Since then, there's been considerable apathy towards gold by the general investing public, pushing its price down about 13%. What's more, government-calculated inflation looks benign, taking away from gold's luster."

And here's where it gets interesting.

Gold Prices, Inflation and the "Golden Staircase'
You see, as we've detailed to you a number of times, inflation is much, much worse than Washington would have us believe.

The consumer price index (CPI) - the "official" gauge of U.S. inflation, fell to 2.7% in March. But the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) says everyday prices - the ones that matter most to working Americans - are up a good 8% over the past year.

"Don't be fooled by the "official' numbers," Peter said. "What this means is that the "real' rate of interest (the interest rate you can earn on the safest investment minus inflation) is down around negative 3%. That scenario has typically kept gold in a bull market. That's why I still expect that we'll see $2,000 gold by late this year or early 2013."

To forecast the timing of that rebound, Peter invoked his "Golden Staircase" theory.

"Since the beginning of gold's secular bull, the "Golden Staircase' has demonstrated that it typically takes 12 to 18 months for gold to establish a new price high once it retreats from a strong run-up. Eight months have already passed since gold reached $1,900. The "Golden Staircase' theory tells us that it will take between four and 10 months to see new highs."

Here are three ways to position your portfolio to profit from this rebound:

•If you're a newcomer to the gold market - or you are somewhat risk-averse - Peter suggests the physically backed Sprott Physical Gold Trust ETV (NYSE: PHYS).
•If you're game for somewhat more leverage, Peter likes Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM). It's currently yielding 3%, is stable and well-diversified, and its dividend is linked to the price of gold, Peter said.
•If maximum profits are your goal, Peter's favorite play - and his personal pick for the Private Briefing report "The Five Stocks You

Have to Own in 2012" - is Sandstorm Gold Ltd. (TSXV: SSL). This streaming-gold company is the riskiest of the three. But it's up 39% since Peter recommended it, and forecasts call for years of rapid growth.
So, yes, gold prices are down lately. But don't expect the downturn to last.

[Editor's Note: Since its launch, Private Briefing has delivered as many as 45 winners. Two dozen of them have been double- or triple-digit gainers--all in just eight months.

With his 24/7 access to stock market gurus like Martin Hutchinson, Keith Fitz-Gerald, Shah Gilani and Dr. Kent Moors, Bill is able to provide Private Briefing subscribers with an inside look at some of their key recommendations.

To learn more about Private Briefing, click here.]

Source :http://moneymorning.com/2012/05/02/gold-prices-how-to-climb-the-golden-staircase/

Money Morning/The Money Map Report

©2011 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201, Email: customerservice@moneymorning.com

Disclaimer: Nothing published by Money Morning should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investent advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication, or after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Money Morning should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Money Morning Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife