Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22
How to Profit from 2022’s Biggest Trend Reversal - 11th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Ready To Drop To 4400SPX? - 11th Jan 22
What's the Role of an Affiliate Marketer? - 11th Jan 22
Essential Things To Know Before You Set Up A Limited Liability Company - 11th Jan 22
NVIDIA THE KING OF THE METAVERSE! - 10th Jan 22
Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived - 10th Jan 22
The Meteoric Rise of Investing in Trading Cards - 10th Jan 22
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK! - 9th Jan 22
WARNING Failing NVME2 M2 SSD Drives Can Prevent Systems From Booting - Corsair MP600 - 9th Jan 22
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history - 9th Jan 22
NVME M2 SSD FAILURE WARNING Signs - Corsair MP600 1tb Drive - 9th Jan 22
Meadowhall Sheffield Christmas Lights 2021 Shopping - Before the Switch on - 9th Jan 22
How Does Insurance Work In Europe? Find Out Here - 9th Jan 22
MATTERPORT (MTTR) - DIGITIZING THE REAL WORLD - METAVERSE INVESTING 2022 - 7th Jan 22
Effect of Deflation On The Gold Price - 7th Jan 22
Stock Market 2022 Requires Different Strategies For Traders/Investors - 7th Jan 22
Old Man Winter Will Stimulate Natural Gas and Heating Oil Demand - 7th Jan 22
Is The Lazy Stock Market Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - 7th Jan 22
METAVERSE - NEW LIFE FOR SONY AGEING GAMING GIANT? - 6th Jan 2022
What Elliott Waves Show for Asia Pacific Stock and Financial Markets 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
Why You Should Register Your Company - 6th Jan 2022
4 Ways to Invest in Silver for 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
UNITY (U) - Metaverse Stock Analysis Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 5th Jan 2022
Stock Market Staving Off Risk-Off - 5th Jan 2022
Gold and Silver Still Hungover After New Year’s Eve - 5th Jan 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? - 5th Jan 2022

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Silver Market Supplies in Surplus?

Commodities / Gold & Silver Jan 28, 2008 - 02:21 PM GMT

By: Roland_Watson

Commodities

I want to address a recent publication which has raised concerns amongst silver investors. It is The Silver Book for 2008 published by the VM Group.

The main item I want to address is the statement in that document that the silver market was in surplus in 2007 by 6,141 tonnes or over 197 million ounces. That is a lot of silver; in fact it constitutes about 18% of their estimated mine and scrap supply for 2007. Does this seem a lot of silver to you? It certainly did to me!


Subsequent to that report being published, I received emails from fellow silver investors asking "Is this bad for silver?" My answer is "No" and I will give two reasons for that.

Firstly, there is no such thing as a silver surplus. In the days when the US Government used to hold billions of ounces of silver in stockpile, we could say "Yes". But now with even the US government tapped out of silver and having to purchase on the open markets, silver is no longer drip fed or dumped onto the markets by big holders as of old.

Indeed, the definition VM Group give of a surplus is a dynamic one. It is the difference between 2007 supply from mines, scrap and governments and that of demand be it industrial, cosmetic or investment. So nothing to do with big stockpile sales here. However, this is still not a surplus. If you think a surplus is 6,141 tonnes of .999 silver sitting around with no one wanting to buy it then think again!

The truth is that supply and demand are in near perfect balance. If more silver comes to market in the absence of new buyers the price is bid down. If less comes in the absence of new sellers, it is bid up. Mines do not overproduce silver as a primary or secondary product; they just sell it on to the market at the best price. If they do store it, it is done in the most efficient way and that is by not mining it out of the ground. In the case of silver produced as a by-product, it is just put on the market for the best bid. It is not stored away in giant ore heaps waiting for a better price - it is just sold!

And if someone buys it then that means demand and that means balance is struck at a new price.

So where did this extra supply come from? Looking at page 13 of the report you get a 2002-2007 breakdown of supply and demand. Photographic recycling is not surprisingly down but not dramatically from 2002 levels. But in general the various sources of supply do not change much apart from one and that is recycled silver from "Other Industrial" sources. This has more than doubled from 2920 to 6360 tonnes in five years. How that number is arrived at I am not sure but in the long run it does not matter and that brings me to my second reason.

Look at the bottom of page 13 and note the stated "surplus" (or "Residual") for each year since 2002. According to this, silver has been in surplus by thousands of tonnes for 5 continuous years! But wait a minute, hasn't the price of silver more than trebled in that time? Yes it has which means that this surplus figure has nothing to do with the silver bull market. Look at the numbers again.

In 2004, the stated silver surplus was bigger than 2007 at 6,828 tonnes yet silver in that year ran up a 100% price increase.

In 2006 the surplus was 5,283 tonnes but again silver ran up in price more 100%!

In fact, the surplus as a percentage of total supply was greater in 2004 at 20%. So what is the problem here? The answer is there is no problem. The price of silver is set at the margin by investors and speculators and all silver is not only being absorbed worldwide but to the extent that the price continues to be bid up and will continue to do so - not when a perceived surplus gets "too big" but when investors try to take their profits en masse.

By Roland Watson
http://silveranalyst.blogspot.com

Further analysis of the SLI indicator and more can be obtained by going to our silver blog at http://silveranalyst.blogspot.com where readers can obtain the first issue of The Silver Analyst free and learn about subscription details. Comments and questions are also invited via email to silveranalysis@yahoo.co.uk .

Roland Watson Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in