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Trading Lessons

Germany Could Pull Out of the Euro Before Spain is Even “Saved”

Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis Jun 23, 2012 - 09:18 AM GMT

By: Graham_Summers

Interest-Rates

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs I’ve assessed in earlier pieces, neither the Fed, nor the IMF, nor the EFSF, nor the ECB has the firepower or the political backing to prop up Spain or the EU.

This ultimately leaves the ESM, the permanent European Stability Mechanism… which technically doesn’t even exist yet (it’s supposed to be ratified by July 2012).


That’s right… the bailout fund which is meant to SAVE Europe doesn’t even exist yet. And it’s not clear that it will anytime soon either…

Indeed, in order for the ESM to be ratified it needs the individual EU member states that will contribute 90% of its capitalization to first ratify it on an individual basis.

Here’s the list of countries that represent that 90% of capital as well as the status of their individual ratifications and the percentage of funding they are to provide.

Country

Ratified?

Percentage of Capital

Germany NO 27%
France YES 20%
Italy NO 18%
Spain NO 12%
Netherlands YES 6%
Belgium NO 3%
Greece YES 3%
Austria NO 3%
Portugal NO 2%
Finland NO 2%
Ireland NO 1%
Slovakia NO 0.8%
Slovenia YES 0.5%
Luxembourg NO 0.2%
Cyprus NO 0.1%
Estonia NO 0.1%
Malta NO 0.07%

To summate the above chart succinctly… only four of the required 17 countries have even ratified the ESM (it’s supposed to be completely ratified in July 2012).

Moreover, you’ll note that the PIIGS as a whole are meant to contribute 36% of the ESM’s FUNDING!!!! Spain and Italy alone are meant to contribute 30%!!!!

So… Spain is supposedly going to be bailed out by an entitythat doesn’t even exist yetfor which Spain is mean to contribute 12% of the funding. And to top it off… Spain hasn’t even ratified the fund itself!!!

More importantly, neither has Germany. And it’s not clear that it will either.

To whit, Germany’s ratification of the ESM is buried in legislature that includes, among other things, the proposal of a financial transaction tax, which is extremely popular with the Social Democrat Party (SPD), the main opposition party to Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

Thanks to recent elections, which saw Merkel’s CDU party get trounced (again, German voters are FED UP with bailouts), the SPD now controls 11 of Germany’s 16 states.

This is a big deal because the SPD is playing hardball regarding the passage of the ESM legislation due to the fact that Merkel is not viewed to have been serious about implementing the transaction tax proposal (which the SPD is pushing for along with various other growth measures for the Germany economy).

Merkel is scheduled to meet with the opposition leaders tomorrow. If they cannot strike a deal it is quite possible that Germany won’t be able to ratify the ESM legislation before the July 1 deadline.

The SPD made it clear that it is willing to risk this just a few weeks ago:

German SPD Pushes Growth Saying Merkel’s Crisis Policy Failed

The timetable for passing the fiscal pact and associated legislation to set up the permanent bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, is “completely unrealistic,” Steinmeier told reporters in Berlin today. The government underestimated the mechanics of getting the two-thirds majority in parliament needed to pass the legislation and it is “very ambitious to assume” both bills pass before the summer recess, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-15/german-spd-pushes-growth-saying-merkel-s-crisis-policy-failed.html

As I have stated many times in the past, politics trumps financial and economic issues in Europe. Germany’s next Federal Election is scheduled for the autumn of 2013. And it is clear that the SPD is viewing the ongoing EU Crisis as a platform with which to claim Merkel’s policies have failed (much as Francois Hollande did to Nicolas Sarkozy in France).

So, we have to consider that the SPD may in fact be willing to let Germany get an international black eye by failing to ratify the ESM legislation by its required deadline (in order to further tarnish Merkel’s image).

By the look of things, this may be the case:

German court may delay Europe’s new bailout fund

The German government and opposition reached a deal on Thursday on growth that will allow parliament to approve the euro zone’s permanent bailout scheme next week, but Germany’s top court may delay the rescue fund’s start date scheduled for July 1.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/21/us-eurozone-germany-esm-idUSBRE85K0LU20120621

Folks, this is not gloom and doom… it is reality. The mega-bailout fund which is supposed to backstop the EU doesn’t exist yet and is likely not to exist for several months as various countries legislative bodies work through the paperwork and legal ramifications.

I don’t know how else to put this, but Europe is finished. There simply is not enough capital to meet the demands (Spain alone needs €300+ billion just to recapitalize its banks). And that’s just Spain. Throw in Italy, Greece (which continues to be a blackhole for bailout funds) and France (which is going to be facing its own fiscal cliff in the near future) and it’s GAME OVER.

Months ago, I forecast that Germany will walk before it goes “all in” on the EU to prop up everyone else. I believe that day is fast approaching. Unless Angela Merkel wants to commit political suicide, she will be forced to protect Germany’s domestic issues. Whether this comes as a result of Germany pre-emptively leaving the Euro or doing so after one of the PIIGS has already left remains to be seen. But in the end, Germany WILL WALK IF IT HAS TO.

On that note I believe we have at most a month or two and possibly even as little as a few weeks to prepare for the next round of the EU Crisis.

Those investors looking for actionable investment ideas could also consider our Private Wealth Advisory newsletter: a bi-weekly detailed investment advisory service that distills the most important geopolitical, economic, and financial developments in the markets into concise investment strategies for individual investors.

To learn more about Private Wealth Advisory and how it can help you navigate the markets successfully…

Click Here Now!!!

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Good Investing!

http://gainspainscapital.com

PS. If you’re getting worried about the future of the stock market and have yet to take steps to prepare for the Second Round of the Financial Crisis… I highly suggest you download my FREE Special Report specifying exactly how to prepare for what’s to come.

I call it The Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival Kit. And its 17 pages contain a wealth of information about portfolio protection, which investments to own and how to take out Catastrophe Insurance on the stock market (this “insurance” paid out triple digit gains in the Autumn of 2008).

Again, this is all 100% FREE. To pick up your copy today, got to http://www.gainspainscapital.com and click on FREE REPORTS.

Graham also writes Private Wealth Advisory, a monthly investment advisory focusing on the most lucrative investment opportunities the financial markets have to offer. Graham understands the big picture from both a macro-economic and capital in/outflow perspective. He translates his understanding into finding trends and undervalued investment opportunities months before the markets catch on: the Private Wealth Advisory portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 three of the last five years, including a 7% return in 2008 vs. a 37% loss for the S&P 500.

Previously, Graham worked as a Senior Financial Analyst covering global markets for several investment firms in the Mid-Atlantic region. He’s lived and performed research in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the United States.

© 2012 Copyright Graham Summers - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Graham Summers Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments


24 Jun 12, 02:20
Germany Could Pull Out of the Euro

Back in August 2009, you said "Stocks Bear Market NOT Over, Stocks WILL Crash this Fall! " and it simply never did. In fact the market went up by 20% !!


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