Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Bitcoin War Begins – Bitcoin Cash Rises 50% While Bitcoin Drops $1,000 In 24 Hours - Jeff_Berwick
2.Fragile Stock Market Bull in a China Shop -James_Quinn
3.Sheffield Leafy Suburbs Tree Felling's Triggering House Prices CRASH! - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Bank of England Hikes UK Interest Rates 100%, Reversing BREXIT PANIC Cut! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Government Finances and Gold - Cautionary Tale told in Four Charts - Michael_J_Kosares
6.Gold Stocks Winter Rally - Zeal_LLC
7.The Stock Market- From Here to Infinity? - Plunger
8.Ethereum (ETH/USD) – bullish breakout of large symmetrical triangle looks to be getting closer - MarketsToday
9.Electronic Gold: The Deep State’s Corrupt Threat to Human Prosperity and Freedom - Stewart_Dougherty
10.Finally, The Fall Of The House Of Saud - Jim_Willie_CB
Last 7 days
Universal Credits Christmas Scrooge Nightmare for Weekly Pay Recipients - 18th Nov 17
Perspective on the Gold/Oil Ratio, Macro Fundamentals and a Gold Sector Bottom - 18th Nov 17
Facebook Traders: Tech Giant + Technical Analysis = Thumbs Up - 18th Nov 17
Games Betting System For NCAA Basketball Sports Betting - Know Your Betting Limits - 18th Nov 17
Universal Credit Doomsday for Tax Credits Cash ISA Savers, Here's What to Do - 18th Nov 17
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals Q3 2017 - 17th Nov 17
The Social Security Inflation Lag Calendar - Partial Indexing - 17th Nov 17
Mystery of Inflation and Gold - 17th Nov 17
Stock Market Ready To Pull The Rug Out From Under You! - 17th Nov 17
Crude Oil – Gold Link in November 2017 - 17th Nov 17
Play Free Online Games and Save Money Free Virtual Online Games - 17th Nov 17
Stock Market Crash Omens & Predictions: Another Day Another Lie - 16th Nov 17
Deepening Crisis In Hyper-inflationary Venezuela and Zimbabwe - 16th Nov 17
Announcing Free Trader's Workshop: Battle-Tested Tools to Boost Your Trading Confidence - 16th Nov 17
Instructions to Stop a Dispossession Home Sale and How to Purchase Astutely at Abandonment Home - 16th Nov 17
Trump’s Asia Tour: From Old Conflicts to New Prospects - 16th Nov 17
Bonds And Stocks Will Crash Together In The Next Crisis (Meanwhile, Bond Yields Are Going Up) - 16th Nov 17
A Generational Reset That Will Redistribute Wealth to the Bottom 60% Is Near - 16th Nov 17
Ethereum (ETH/USD) – bullish breakout of large symmetrical triangle looks to be getting closer - 16th Nov 17
Gold’s Long-term Analogies - 16th Nov 17
Does Stripping Streets of ALL of their Trees Impact House Prices (Sheffield Example)? - 15th Nov 17
The Trump Administration’s IP Battle Against China - 15th Nov 17
5 Ways Bitcoin can Improve its Odds of Becoming the Future of Money - 15th Nov 17
These Headlines Say Gold is Building a Base for Something Big - 15th Nov 17
Protect Your Savings With Gold: ECB Propose End To Deposit Protection - 14th Nov 17
Gold on the Ledge, Trend Forecast - 14th Nov 17
The Unbearable Slowness Of Fourth Turnings - 14th Nov 17
Silver Sign’s Confirmation & More - 14th Nov 17
Could This Be The End for Tesla? - 14th Nov 17
Harry Dent’s Fourth Cycle: More Evidence of Stock Market Downturn - 14th Nov 17
Why Having Good Credit Is Important If You Want to Invest - 14th Nov 17
The Bitcoin Bubble Explained in 4 Charts - 13th Nov 17
How the US Has Secretly Subsidized China to Produce Eco-Unfriendly Solar Panels - 13th Nov 17
The Increasingly Unstable Middle East Must Be On Every Investor’s Radar - 13th Nov 17
Stock Market Critical Supports are Being Challenged - 13th Nov 17
The One Chart All Investors Should See Before 2018 - 13th Nov 17
Short-Term Stock Market Uncertainty Following Recent Rally, Will Stocks Continue Higher? - 13th Nov 17
Is Hillary Just the “Fall Guy” for the Intel Agencies and their Moneybags Bosses? - 12th Nov 17
Stock Market Correction Phase - 12th Nov 17
Finally, The Fall Of The House Of Saud - 12th Nov 17
Bitcoin War Begins – Bitcoin Cash Rises 50% While Bitcoin Drops $1,000 In 24 Hours - 11th Nov 17
E-franc, E-krona... E-volution? - 11th Nov 17
Gold Investment Stalled - 11th Nov 17
Smart Ways to Get Loans Online - 11th Nov 17
What Can Pot Teach Us About Economics and Government? - 10th Nov 17
Can Stocks and Bonds go Down at the Same Time? - 10th Nov 17
Gold Market 2017 Will We See a Replay of 2015 and 2016? - 10th Nov 17
Oil markets turn bullish with shift to backwardation - 10th Nov 17
The Strange Behavior of Gold Investors from Monday to Thursday - 10th Nov 17
Where to Start Your Cryptocurrency Company - 10th Nov 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Forex Trading Free Week

Sector Rotation for Recession - Lessons from the Business Cycle

Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis Feb 06, 2008 - 12:40 AM GMT

By: Donald_W_Dony

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn their never ending pursuit to uncover the next undervalued company, portfolio managers and investors often forget how equities, as a whole, fit into the stock market and business cycles. Though it is important to focus on the individual issues, it is never wise to forget about the surrounding environment and its positive or negative influences.

The basic pattern of the business or economic cycle has four steps. These steps, though never exactly unfold the same during each cycle, the basic structure remains firm and should be remembered.


1. Recession. A decline in the real GDP that occurs for at least two or more quarters. Recessions feed on themselves. During a recession, business people spend less than they once did. Because sales are failing, businesses do what they can to reduce their spending. They lay off workers, buy less merchandise, and postpone plans to expand. When this happens, business suppliers do what they can to protect themselves. They too lay off workers and reduce spending. Unemployment starts to rise (Chart 2).

As workers earn less, they spend less, and business income and profits decline still more. Businesses spend even less than before and lay off still more workers. The economy continues to slide.

2. Low Point, or Depression. State of the economy where there are large unemployment rates, a decline in annual income, and overproduction. The time at which the real GDP stops its decline and starts expanding; the lowest point. Sooner or later, the recession will reach the bottom of the business cycle. How long the cycle will remain at this low point varies from a matter of weeks to many months. During some depressions, such as the one in the 1930s, the low point has lasted for years.

3. Expansion and Recovery. A period in which the real GDP grows; recovery from a recession. When business begins to improve a bit, firms will hire a few more workers and increase their orders of materials from their suppliers. Increased orders lead other firms to increase production and rehire workers. More employment leads to more consumer spending, further business activity, and still more jobs. Economists describe this upturn in the business cycle as a period of expansion and recovery.

4. Peak. The point at which the real GDP stops increasing and begins its decline; the highest point. At the top, or peak, of the business cycle, business expansion ends its upward climb. Employment, consumer spending, and production hit their highest levels. A peak, like a depression, can last for a short or long period of time. When the peak lasts for a long time, we are in a period of prosperity.

The stock market (Chart 3) is a well proven leading indicated on the business cycle and normally leads by 6-9 months. The rise and fall of sectors within the equity markets provides ample clues to the investor of the correct phase of the business cycle.

For example, if a time slice from the last 2-3 months were examined closely, the following economic and stock sector evidence would be found. Interest rates are now falling (Chart 1). Gold and oil are making all-time highs. Defensive groups such as health care and staples are some of the top performing groups. Financials and discretionaries have started declining months ago (both are leading indicators on the stock market). Basic materials and consumer goods are trading flat. All of this data would suggest a peak in the economy has developed and that the stock market (usually 6-9 months behind the economy) has already topped. Technical models indicate the crest for global markets was in October.

Bottom line: The current fundamentals of a company can be greatly influenced by the surrounding economy. By understanding the basic structure of the business cycle, investors can determine the present position of the cycle and anticipate a weaker or stronger economy in the near future. The business cycle has one of the strongest influences on the present and future earnings of a organization.

Investment approach: Portfolios should be weighted toward sectors that have proven strength in economic contraction periods. This includes defensive groups, utilities and pharmaceuticals. Investors should also consider under weighting transportation, technology, basic industry and capital goods. These last groups usually perform poorly during economic slowdowns.

Additional information about the economy, global equity markets and commodities can be found in the February newsletter.

Your comments are alway welcomed.

By Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA
www.technicalspeculator.com

COPYRIGHT © 2008 Donald W. Dony
Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA has been in the investment profession for over 20 years, first as a stock broker in the mid 1980's and then as the principal of D. W. Dony and Associates Inc., a financial consulting firm to present.  He is the editor and publisher of the Technical Speculator, a monthly international investment newsletter, which specializes in major world equity markets, currencies, bonds and interest rates as well as the precious metals markets.   

Donald is also an instructor for the Canadian Securities Institute (CSI). He is often called upon to design technical analysis training programs and to provide teaching to industry professionals on technical analysis at many of Canada's leading brokerage firms.  He is a respected specialist in the area of intermarket and cycle analysis and a frequent speaker at investment conferences.

Mr. Dony is a member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA).

Donald W. Dony Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

ken
18 Jan 09, 08:03
Not a typical recession

I don't think we are in a typical recession -- I think we are in period not seen in our life times -- The Fed Funds rate has been dropped to zero -- many banks that have existed for more than 50 years have been bankrupted --- the fed is buying bad mortgage pools from banks at par --- the gov't is probably going to spend more than a trillion a year to boost the economy -- I think we are in a 10-15 year period which will be as bad as the depression -- we are seeing currencies debased and only hard assets are going to hold their value. Therefore I think your chart is not going to be a good predictor of what the future holds.

Take care,

ken


Russ Story
02 Sep 09, 22:19
It's Different this Time

These are the 4 most dangerous words in investing....

"It's Different This time"

The business cycle is still inforce. The moves are just more intense...


radhika jadhav
10 Nov 11, 23:54
business cycle

want some more information on business cycle.....elobrative explanation and defination byexperts...


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife