Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Halifax Stopping Customers Withdrawing Funds Online - UK Brexit Banking Crisis Starting? - 21st July 19
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021 - 20th July 19
MICROSOFT Cortana, Azure AI Platform Machine Intelligence Stock Investing Video - 20th July 19
Africa Rising – Population Explosion, Geopolitical and Economic Consquences - 20th July 19
Gold Mining Stocks Q2’19 Results Analysis - 20th July 19
This Is Your Last Chance to Dump Netflix Stock - 19th July 19
Gold and US Stock Mid Term Election and Decade Cycles - 19th July 19
Precious Metals Big Picture, as Silver Gets on its Horse - 19th July 19
This Technology Everyone Laughed Off Is Quietly Changing the World - 19th July 19
Green Tech Stocks To Watch - 19th July 19
Double Top In Transportation and Metals Breakout Are Key Stock Market Topping Signals - 18th July 19
AI Machine Learning PC Custom Build Specs for £2,500 - Scan Computers 3SX - 18th July 19
The Best “Pick-and-Shovel” Play for the Online Grocery Boom - 18th July 19
Is the Stock Market Rally Floating on Thin Air? - 18th July 19
Biotech Stocks With Near Term Catalysts - 18th July 19
SPX Consolidating, GBP and CAD Could be in Focus - 18th July 19
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis - 17th July 19
Financial Crisis Stocks Bear Market Is Scary Close - 17th July 19
Want to See What's Next for the US Economy? Try This. - 17th July 19
What to do if You Blow the Trading Account - 17th July 19
Bitcoin Is Far Too Risky for Most Investors - 17th July 19
Core Inflation Rises but Fed Is Going to Cut Rates. Will Gold Gain? - 17th July 19
Boost your Trading Results - FREE eBook - 17th July 19
This Needs To Happen Before Silver Really Takes Off - 17th July 19
NASDAQ Should Reach 8031 Before Topping - 17th July 19
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator - 16th July 19
Could Trump Really Win the 2020 US Presidential Election? - 16th July 19
Gold Stocks Forming Bullish Consolidation - 16th July 19
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like 1995 or 2007? - 16th July 19
Red Rock Entertainment Investments: Around the world in a day with Supreme Jets - 16th July 19
Silver Has Already Gone from Weak to Strong Hands - 15th July 19
Top Equity Mutual Funds That Offer Best Returns - 15th July 19
Gold’s Breakout And The US Dollar - 15th July 19
Financial Markets, Iran, U.S. Global Hegemony - 15th July 19
U.S Bond Yields Point to a 40% Rise in SPX - 15th July 19
Corporate Earnings may Surprise the Stock Market – Watch Out! - 15th July 19
Stock Market Interest Rate Cut Prevails - 15th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State July 2019 Video - 15th July 19
Why Summer is the Best Time to be in the Entertainment Industry - 15th July 19
Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks - 14th July 19
Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold - 14th July 19
The Problem with Keynesian Economics - 14th July 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Gold Long Term Bull Market

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Sep 26, 2012 - 12:17 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePatrick McGough writes: The Gold Bull market started during the first quarter of 2001, and has now been in play for approximately 11 1/2 years. Commodity cycles tend to have 13 year bull markets and 21 year bear markets. This completes a 34 year cycle and for the moment Gold appears to be in the last 1-1 1/2 years of this cycle. Fortunately for us traders this tends to be the most explosive part of the cycle. In the actual economy Gold really does not serve as a commodity but as a currency. If this were not the case why do central banks accumulate or hold gold as reserves? The yellow metal is truly the currency of last resort.


We have been counting Gold as a large impulse, but if one looks at the 1967-1980 bull market the count was certainly corrective. Furthermore no currency or commodity market moves with a long term impulse. The two other major Precious metals Platinum and Silver do not have long term impulses, so with that in mind the gold count was changed to reflect a long term corrective count. This does not change the long term targets, but only seeks to try and represent Gold’s true Elliott Wave (EW) nature.

Before moving down to the daily charts let’s take a look at two basic details in the weekly chart. When looking at waves for EW it is critical to remember the impulse numbers (5, 9, 13, 17, 21, 25, etc). First notice that Major a/Primary A completed with 17 waves up, and Major c/Primary A completed with 13 waves up. It would seem that Major c/Primary A “cycled” down one wave set. If this were to occur for Primary C we should expect 9 waves up for the final Major c.

The second detail is just some basic Fib projections.

Major a / Primary A (2001-2004) = 69%

Major c / Primary A (2004-2008) = 178%

Major a / Primary C (2008-2011) = 183%

Each of the major waves have approximately a 2.618 extension to the first major wave in the bull market. This leads to a rather simple bull market top projection (69% = $2580 & 180% = $4,270). As mentioned above these targets should be hit in the next 1 – 1 1/2 years. After this it may not be very wise to be long gold.

Medium Term

The current uptrend began in late June and ended an ~ 8 1/2 month correction from $1923 – $1526 (21%). From the truncated low of $1547 Gold has risen 16% to $1790. Notice there are two resistance pivots at $1793 and $1804. This area should prove to be an issue for Gold over the next few weeks.

Currently Gold has a significant negative divergence and looks like we could get a bearish MACD cross. We should expect Minor 4 to correct anywhere between $35 – $65, and the uptrend should then resume. Gold could potentially make a new high during this uptrend, but the $1800 – $1830 level should provide stiff resistance. First target for Intermediate i = $1820 – $1830 and second target new bull market highs ($1920-$1950).

Short Term

The shorter term charts tend to offer many more probabilities, so let’s try to view this time frame in the proper prospective. This impulse wave can be counted in a few different ways, but we try to stick to the most obvious count. The GLD recently ran into resistance at the March 2012 and November 2011 highs, and for the moment it appears Minor 4 started on Friday last week. Minor 4 should find support around the $1690-$1660 level in GLD.

Alternate Count

The truncated wave in late June causes technicians a minor problem. Was it really a truncated wave or a true uptrend? For the moment the best answer is that we can’t be 100% sure either way. For this reason an alternate count will be included on the GPX chart.

This count would mean Gold is most likely in Minor 1 up of a potentially extending Intermediate iii wave. The next correction will give us some clues as to whether or not this alternate count is viable. Enjoy the rest of this Gold bull market, since late next year will most likely end up marking the end of what has been a very nice bull run for the yellow metal.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/...

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2012 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules