Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Stock Market Uptrend Continues? - 4th Aug 20
The Dimensions of Covid-19: The Hong Kong Flu Redux - 4th Aug 20
High Yield Junk Bonds Are Hot Again -- Despite Warning Signs - 4th Aug 20
Gold Stocks Autumn Rally - 4th Aug 20
“Government Sachs” Is Worried About the Federal Reserve Note - 4th Aug 20
Gold Miners Still Pushing That Cart of Rocks Up Hill - 4th Aug 20
UK Government to Cancel Christmas - Crazy Covid Eid 2020! - 4th Aug 20
Covid-19 Exposes NHS Institutional Racism Against Black and Asian Staff and Patients - 4th Aug 20
How Sony Is Fueling the Computer Vision Boom - 3rd Aug 20
Computer Gaming System Rig Top Tips For 6 Years Future Proofing Build Spec - 3rd Aug 20
Cornwwall Bude Caravan Park Holidays 2020 - Look Inside Holiday Resort Caravan - 3rd Aug 20
UK Caravan Park Holidays 2020 Review - Hoseasons Cayton Bay North East England - 3rd Aug 20
Best Travel Bags for 2020 Summer Holidays , Back Sling packs, water proof, money belt and tactical - 3rd Aug 20
Precious Metals Warn Of Increased Volatility Ahead - 2nd Aug 20
The Key USDX Sign for Gold and Silver - 2nd Aug 20
Corona Crisis Will Have Lasting Impact on Gold Market - 2nd Aug 20
Gold & Silver: Two Pictures - 1st Aug 20
The Bullish Case for Stocks Isn't Over Yet - 1st Aug 20
Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse - Part 2? - 1st Aug 20
Will America Accept the World's Worst Pandemic Response Government - 1st Aug 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More – Part II - 1st Aug 20
Trump White House Accelerating Toward a US Dollar Crisis - 31st Jul 20
Why US Commercial Real Estate is Set to Get Slammed - 31st Jul 20
Gold Price Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On - 31st Jul 20
Is Crude Oil Price Setting Up for a Waterfall Decline? - 31st Jul 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More - 30th Jul 20
Why Big Money Is Already Pouring Into Edge Computing Tech Stocks - 30th Jul 20
Economic and Geopolitical Worries Fuel Gold’s Rally - 30th Jul 20
How to Finance an Investment Property - 30th Jul 20
I Hate Banks - Including Goldman Sachs - 29th Jul 20
NASDAQ Stock Market Double Top & Price Channels Suggest Pending Price Correction - 29th Jul 20
Silver Price Surge Leaves Naysayers in the Dust - 29th Jul 20
UK Supermarket Covid-19 Shop - Few Masks, Lack of Social Distancing (Tesco) - 29th Jul 20
Budgie Clipped Wings, How Long Before it Can Fly Again? - 29th Jul 20
How To Take Advantage Of Tesla's 400% Stock Surge - 29th Jul 20
Gold Makes Record High and Targets $6,000 in New Bull Cycle - 28th Jul 20
Gold Strong Signal For A Secular Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Anatomy of a Gold and Silver Precious Metals Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Shopify Is Seizing an $80 Billion Pot of Gold - 28th Jul 20
Stock Market Minor Correction Underway - 28th Jul 20
Why College Is Never Coming Back - 27th Jul 20
Stocks Disconnect from Economy, Gold Responds - 27th Jul 20
Silver Begins Big Upside Rally Attempt - 27th Jul 20
The Gold and Silver Markets Have Changed… What About You? - 27th Jul 20
Google, Apple And Amazon Are Leading A $30 Trillion Assault On Wall Street - 27th Jul 20
This Stock Market Indicator Reaches "Lowest Level in Nearly 20 Years" - 26th Jul 20
New Wave of Economic Stimulus Lifts Gold Price - 26th Jul 20
Stock Market Slow Grind Higher Above the Early June Stock Highs - 26th Jul 20
How High Will Silver Go? - 25th Jul 20
If You Own Gold, Look Out Below - 25th Jul 20
Crude Oil and Energy Sets Up Near Major Resistance – Breakdown Pending - 25th Jul 20
FREE Access to Premium Market Forecasts by Elliott Wave International - 25th Jul 20
The Promise of Silver as August Approaches: Accumulation and Conversation - 25th Jul 20
The Silver Bull Gateway is at Hand - 24th Jul 20
The Prospects of S&P 500 Above the Early June Highs - 24th Jul 20
How Silver Could Surpass Its All-Time High - 24th Jul 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Stock Market Update: Blemishes on the Bears' Elliott Wave Count

Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory Feb 17, 2008 - 09:15 PM GMT

By: Dominick

Stock-Markets Another week is now history and the bear case is looking worse for it. Not that the market can't go down from here, but if it does, it won't be the impulsive 3 rd wave for which so many have been waiting and waiting and waiting.


Readers will remember I've never been completely convinced the October high is THE top in this market, though for a few months now it's been practically gospel that it is. The market has yet to commit to one direction or the other, but the chart below shows the bullish and bearish cases and why unbiased Elliott wave analysis has to have at least serious doubts about the bear count.

First, the move from the August low to the October high has the look of a three-wave advance, and impulses do not end in three-wave moves. Then, wave i of wave 3 in the bear case, starting on December 11 , also appears to be three-waves on a 60-minute timeframe, making an impulse down problematic.

On the other hand, the bulls may have a perfect w-x-y correction complete from the October highs to the January lows, our 1256 target. We can even allow for another slight new low being made without invalidating the bull count, but, while bull count remains intact, my rally to new highs is a distinct possibility.

Stocks reached an important juncture at the end of January and have been struggling to dictate the wave count ever since. The break of the large triangle from the summer '07 highs signaled a down turn in the market and actually foreshadowed the massive SocGen related selling in January. It's hard to blame anyone that shorted that hole, since it did resemble a real breakdown.

But TTC did not fall for it – in fact, we bought the exact bottom and have been trading our proprietary targets ever since. We continue to see exponential growth in our membership, to the extent that we will probably be forced to close our doors to new members this year, precisely because we do not color our analysis with bias, or manipulate our counts to match our favored outcomes. Unfortunately, too much of the analysis community fails to live up to this basic standard and Elliott wave analysis has lost the prestige it once had as a result.

Simply put, as an Elliott wave purist, it's impossible for me to ignore the faults in the bear case shown above. This unbiased view has allowed TTC members to respect the indecisive nature of the current environment and participate on both sides of the market.

Looking ahead my view against the bear case is corroborated by extremely bearish sentiment on the Street, which would tend to prevent huge declines, and the DJ Transports, which have now rallied off of a three-wave decline, suggesting impulsiveness to the upside. But I'm not suddenly now going to rest on my laurels or marry a particular outlook. Next week we'll be looking for the market to verify our analysis early in the week with a Tuesday or Wednesday rally, or else we continue to slide sideways or down.

Seeing this week close near our 1352 target makes that work even easier next week: either we gap above or trade above that level to confirm a more long term bullish outlook or we don't. Getting below 1308 would begin to raise serious questions about current count, but even if the market does move lower, it will not be in the impulsive bear case shown above, which so much of the web's analysts have clung to week after week against all reason. And ultimately, even if we are moving lower, having the correct chart will eventually make all the difference for the future moves.

Don't forget to join now before we close membership to new retail traders.

Have a profitable and safe week trading, and remember:
"Unbiased Elliott Wave works!"

By Dominick , a.k.a. Spwaver
www.tradingthecharts.com

This update is provided as general information and is not an investment recommendation. TTC accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses resulting from action taken based on the contents of its charts, commentaries, or price data. Securities and commodities markets involve inherent risk and not all positions are suitable for each individual. Check with your licensed financial advisor or broker prior to taking any action.

Dominick Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules