Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Junior Gold Miners: New Yearly Lows! Will We See a Further Drop? - 23rd Jul 21
Best Forex Strategy for Consistent Profits - 23rd Jul 21
Popular Forex Brokers That You Might Want to Check Out - 22nd Jul 21
Bitcoin Black Swan - Will Crypto Currencies Get Banned? - 22nd Jul 21
Bitcoin Price Enters Stage #4 Excess Phase Peak Breakdown – Where To Next? - 22nd Jul 21
Powell Gave Congress Dovish Signs. Will It Help Gold Price? - 22nd Jul 21
What’s Next For Gold Is Always About The US Dollar - 22nd Jul 21
URGENT! ALL Windows 10 Users Must Do this NOW! Windows Image Backup Before it is Too Late! - 22nd Jul 21
Bitcoin Price CRASH, How to SELL BTC at $40k! Real Analysis vs Shill Coin Pumper's and Clueless Newbs - 21st Jul 21
Emotional Stock Traders React To Recent Market Rotation – Are You Ready For What’s Next? - 21st Jul 21
Killing Driveway Weeds FAST with a Pressure Washer - 8 months Later - Did it work?- Block Paving Weeds - 21st Jul 21
Post-Covid Stimulus Payouts & The US Fed Push Global Investors Deeper Into US Value Bubble - 21st Jul 21
What is Social Trading - 21st Jul 21
Would Transparency Help Crypto? - 21st Jul 21
AI Predicts US Tech Stocks Price Valuations Three Years Ahead (ASVF) - 20th Jul 21
Gold Asks: Has Inflation Already Peaked? - 20th Jul 21
FREE PASS to Analysis and Trend forecasts of 50+ Global Markets by Elliott Wave International - 20th Jul 21
Nissan to Create 1000s of jobs with electric vehicle investment in UK - 20th Jul 21
Bitcoin Halvings Price Forecast and Stock to Flow Analysis - 18th Jul 21
Dell S3220DGF Unboxing and Stand Assembly - 32 Inch 165hz Curved Gaming Monitor Amazon Discount - 18th Jul 21
What Does The Fed Mean By “Transitory Inflation” And Why Is It Important To Understand? - 18th Jul 21
Will the US stock market’s worsening breadth matter? - 18th Jul 21
Bitcoin Halving's Price Projection Forecasts Trend Trajectory - 18th Jul 21
Dell S3220DGF Price CRASH to £305! 32 Inch 165hz Curved Gaming Monitor Amazon Bargain - 16th Jul 21
Google, Amazon and Netflix are Scrambling For This Rare Gas - 16th Jul 21
Sheffield Millhouses Park New Children's Play Area July 2021 Vs Old Play Area - Better or Worse? - 16th Jul 21
Inflation Soars, Powell Remains Unmoved. What about Gold? - 16th Jul 21
Goldrunner: Gold Could Jump To $1,900-$2,100 In Next 30 days – Here’s Why - 15th Jul 21
Tips For Finding The Right Influencers - 15th Jul 21
ECB Changed Monetary Strategy. Will It Alter Gold’s Course? - 15th Jul 21
NASA And Big Tech Are Facing Off Over This Rare Gas - 15th Jul 21
Will the U.S. Dollar Lose Momentum In the Second Half of 2021? - 15th Jul 21
Bitcoin Stock to Flow Model Forecasts Infinity and Beyond! - 14th Jul 21
Proteomics: The Next Truly Massive Investing Opportunity - 14th Jul 21
Massive Solar Storm to Hit Earth 2025, Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) Danger and Protection Solutions - 14th Jul 21
Is This The Best Way To Play The Coming Helium Boom? - 14th Jul 21
Meet SuperMania and its Ever-Present Sidekick, SuperMeltdown - 14th Jul 21
How NFTs Are Shaking Up Arts Trading - 14th Jul 21
Gold: High Time to Move Out of the Penthouse - 13th Jul 21
Climb Aboard! Silver Should Run Up To $38 In Next 30 Days - 13th Jul 21
How Will Remote Work Impact the U.K. economy? - 13th Jul 21
Why Helium Stocks Are Set To Soar in 2021 - 13th Jul 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Northern Rock Bank Nationalised- Which Bank will be Next?

Companies / UK Banking Feb 18, 2008 - 01:13 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Companies Best Financial Markets Analysis Article

On Sunday Gordon's Darling released the statement that the UK Government would nationalise Northern Rock Bank before Mondays stock market open, as the two takeover proposals virtually guaranteed huge profits for the bidders such as Branson's Virgin group, whilst the government would have been stuck with the debt of as much as £50 billions, sat to wait patiently for upwards of 25 years for the debt to slowly be repaid if at all.

At mid-day today, Gordon Brown the British Prime minister waded in to support the decision to nationalise the bank in the face of shareholder protests, and said that the delays were necessary so as to weigh potential private sector alternatives to nationalisation.


Therefore, as I have pointed out several times over the last few months, under the circumstances the government had very little option but to nationalise the bank with a view to seeking the revenues to primarily concentrate on the repayment of the government debt as well as seeking to sell off significant chunks of the bank to hasten the process and therefore as long as there is no meltdown in the UK housing market, the government would aim to get back all of its cash over the next 3 to 4 years. Something that would not have happened with either of the private bidders.

The tactics that the Northern Rock Bank could use to cut the amount it owes to the government is to raise the mortgage interest rates on borrowers which will force the prime mortgage borrowers to remortgage elsewhere at lower interest rates and therefore clearing their mortgage debt with Northern Rock Bank. However this will result in mortgage interest rates rising across the UK mortgage sector despite Bank of England interest rate cuts as Northern Rock Bank accounts for a fifth of the UK's mortgage business.

However, the risk now is which other banks will follow Northern Rock into the arms of the Government. The UK Government has in effect increased the national debt by about £50 billions, the impact of which has been directly felt in the foreign exchange markets with the pound plunging from a high of £/$ 2.13 to the current lows of £/$ 1.94 on fears that further bailouts will lead to a surge in bond issues and hence resulting in higher long-term interest rates coupled with falling bond prices.

The reason why there will be further bank failures is because the global credit crisis is deepening as the US monoline debt default insurers face failure and thus magnify the original estimates of total bank losses of $140 billion to potentially ten fold ! That's well over $1 trillion in losses, more than enough to wipe out the capital base of many of Britain's and the worlds biggest banks! This regardless of good money thrown after bad by the Sovereign Wealth Funds.

The real initial losers are the shareholders who will probably see little more than the 90p the shares closed at last Friday. Many are declaring intentions of suing the government demanding compensation of as much as £4.25. Especially vocal are the two hedge funds that scaled into Northern Rock following the share price crash at an average price of £2.50 per share.

The prospects for the UK mortgage sector looks increasingly dire, with the UK housing market having barely begun to feel the impact from the credit crisis, lagging some 12 months behind the US in terms of the housing market trend. Mortgage banks such as Bradford and Bingley, Alliance and Leicester and even the mighty HBOS will feel the pain from a forecast downtrend of a 15% drop over 2 years as of August 2007.

By Nadeem Walayat

Copyright © 2005-08 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading, analysing and forecasting the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 120 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in