Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.US Dollar Crashes, Gold And Bitcoin Skyrocket As Economic Recovery Lie Is Exposed - Jeff_Berwick
2.Now Obama Warns Americans to ‘Be Prepared’ for Disaster… What Does He Know? - Jeff_Berwick
3.EU Referendum - Britain's Immigration / Migrant Crisis Explained - Nadeem_Walayat
4.EU Referendum - British People vs Establishment Elite, Vote LEAVE an Act of Defiance! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Prominent Billionaire Investors Warn of Financial Crash, Quietly Position Themselves - MoneyMetals
6.Bankers Warn of BrExit Financial Armageddon if British People Vote for Freedom - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bad U.S. Jobs Report Prompts Stocks Bear Market Rally Towards New All Time Highs! - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Gold And Silver – Friday May Have Marked A Pivotal Turnaround - Michael_Noonan
9.EU Referendum - British People vs Establishment Elite, the Illusion of Democracy and Freedom - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Felix Zulauf: Monetary Stimulation Creates Bubbles, Not Prosperity Nor Growth - GoldandLiberty
Free Silver
Last 7 days
Gold And Silver: Security, And BREXIT - 25th June 16
Dow, Euro & Brexit Recap - 25th June 16
Resistance Holding Gold Stocks after Brexit - 25th June 16
Venezuela vs. Ecuador (Chavismo vs. Chavismo Dollarized) - 25th June 16
Gold, Silver And PM Stocks Summer Doldrums Risk - 24th June 16
Here’s Why China “Economic Hard-Landing” Worries Are Overblown - 24th June 16
Jubilee Jolt: Markets Crash, Gold Skyrockets as Britain Takes Brexit - 24th June 16
BrExit Morning - New Dawn for Britain, Independence Day! - 24th June 16
LEAVE Wins EU Referendum - Sterling and FTSE Hit Hard, Pollsters, Bookies and Markets All WRONG! - 24th June 16
Trading BrExit - British Pound Plunges, FTSE Stock Futures Slump on LEAVE Shock Referendum Win - 24th June 16
EU Referendum Shock Results Putting BrExit LEAVE in the Lead Hitting Sterling Hard - 24th June 16
Final Opinion Poll Gives REMAIN 52% Lead, Bookmakers, Markets and Pollsters ALL Back REMAIN Win - 23rd June 16
Does BREXIT Matter? Outlook for Sterling - 23rd June 16
Keep Calm and Vote BrExit - Last Chance to Break Free of EU Superstate - 23rd June 16
Here’s the Foreign Policy Trump and Clinton Really Want - 23rd June 16
Details Behind Semiconductor Stocks Leadership - 23rd June 16
Trading BrExit - Stocks, Bonds, Sterling, Opinion Polls, Bookmaker Odds and My Forecast - 23rd June 16
BrExit Looks Set to Win EU Referendum, Final Opinion Polls Give LEAVE Lead Over REMAIN - 22nd June 16
Proof that the Gold Bears are Wrong - 22nd June 16
Here’s a Trillion-Dollar Investment Opportunity for Those Few with No Debt - 22nd June 16
BrExit to Save Europe from Climate Change Refugee Migration Apocalypse - 22nd June 16
Increase In U.S. Rig Count Will Not Cap Oil Prices - 22nd June 16
Are Copper and China Stocks Set to Rally? - 22nd June 16
SPX May Break Its Trendline - 22nd June 16
Believe it or Not: More Kids Live At Home Now than Since The Great Depression - 21st June 16
EU Referendum Latest Opinion Polls Show LEAVE Halting REMAINs Surge - 21st June 16
British Pound Outlook - BREXIT, Europe and You - Does your vote matter? - 21st June 16
Fascist Victory Behind the European Union - 21st June 16
EU Referendum Opinion Polls Analysis Shows Strong Momentum in REMAINs Favour - 21st June 16
Is It Time to Dump Gold and Buy Platinum? - 21st June 16
Could Central Bankers Be Gold and Silver's BIGGEST Allies? - 20th June 16
Words Still Mean Things – Brexit With Graham Mehl - 20th June 16
Baroness Warsi the Manchurian Candidate Quits LEAVE for REMAIN, Boris Johnson Next? - 20th June 16
FTSE Soars, Stock Markets Bounce on LEAVE Polls Surge, Bookmakers Widen BrExit Odds - 20th June 16
Brexit Would Trigger Devolution of Europe - 20th June 16
Stock Market Week Of Uncertainty - 20th June 16
Will Gold’s Bullish Price Chart Outperform Gold’s 5 Bearish Indicators? - 20th June 16
Bonds And Stocks At All-Time Highs: Are Markets Confused Or Broken? - 20th June 16
Silver Sleeping On the Job - 19th June 16
BrExit Odds Sink, REMAIN Polls Boost by Jo Cox Killing by Radical Right Extremist, Conspiracy? - 19th June 16
How Elliott Waves Tell You When to "Jump In" & When to "Jump Out" of Markets - 18th June 16
Stock Market Inflection Point During Bifurcation - 18th June 16
Gold And Silver – Insanity Is World “Norm.” Keep Stacking! - 18th June 16
Gold Stocks - Bull Markets that Follow Epic Bears - 18th June 16
The Fed Giveth and the Gold Bullion Banks Taketh Away… - 17th June 16
Brexit: "The Vote Heard Around the World" - 17th June 16
Gold Stocks Summer Breakout? - 17th June 16
Stock Investors Get Higher Returns and More Dividend Income - In Less Time With Less Risk - 17th June 16
How to Use the Gold-to-Silver Ratio? - 17th June 16
Inflation, Deflation & Associated Trading Prospects - 17th June 16
Overnight Markets Struggling to Stay Flat - 17th June 16
Gold Price Surges to Highest in Nearly Two Years On Central Bank and Brexit Haven Demand - 17th June 16
Stock Market Thinking Upside Down; Dow 18k Still Key - 17th June 16
Jo Cox MP Terror Attack Killing Claimed for "Britain First" - Witness Report - 17th June 16
Stock Market, Iron Ore, Bitcoin – Is Silver Next for Chinese Momentum Investors? - 16th June 16
EU Referendum Campaigning Suspended Following Shooting of MP Jo Cox, Suspect Named as Tommy Mair - 16th June 16
Why People are Migrating to the UK, Illegal Immigration, Housing Crisis Consequences - 16th June 16
Stocks Fluctuate Following Recent Decline - Bottom Or Just Pause Before Another Leg Down? - 16th June 16
The US Consumer-Driven Economy Has Hit a Brick Wall - 16th June 16
Bitcoin Price Going Parabolic Again, Now At $730 and Up 60%+ In Last Three Weeks - 16th June 16
China's Hard Landing Has Already Begun! - 16th June 16
Crude Oil Price - Oil Bears vs. Support Zone - 16th June 16
Central Bankers Are Wrong About Inflation and Deflation - 15th June 16
Alignment Of The Dow, Interest Rates, Debt and Silver Cycles Will Deliver A Fatal Blow - 15th June 16
Stock Market Bounce May be Over - 15th June 16
EU Referendum: Have the Bookmakers Got it Wrong? LEAVE Opinion Polls Lead - 15th June 16
Gold Price Rally - 15th June 16
How to Invest for Brexit Report - 15th June 16
Stock Market Short of the Decade? - 15th June 16
Stock Market Sell Off Coming! - 14th June 16
QE - The Good, Bad & Ugly - 14th June 16
This Demographic Shift Makes Our Social Security Useless - 14th June 16
Gold Stocks Ultimate Objective in a World of Monetary Transition - 14th June 16
Philosophy of the New World Order - 14th June 16
The Brexit Game - Boris Johnson vs David Cameron EU Referendum Zombies - 14th June 16
EU Referendum: LEAVE Opinion Poll Lead of 51% to 49% Whilst Bookmaker Odds Still Strongly Favour REMAIN - 14th June 16
George Soros Making Big Bets on Gold - 14th June 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

Stock Market Forecasts for Dow, Dax, FTSE, Kospi and ASX

Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets Nov 10, 2012 - 12:14 PM GMT

By: Manas_Banerji

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAfter an election, we may expect one thing that there will not much window dressings but that is only an expectation, not guarantee. In this moment it will be hard job for US to balance between reduction in budgetary deficit and corresponding imminent recession which experts are talking about. Experts and media may talk about many things that is threatening global growth but I do feel that debt loads (especially for nations with big debt market) is one of the biggest matter that are hampering global growth, both directly and indirectly.


The way 10-year US Treasury yield is going, it looks to me that Yield may drop around 1.40 range in coming future but I am not sure whether it is going do that in coming week or later. If 10-year US Treasury yields breaks around 1.60 support ranges and visits such lower position then that may not be good for stock market. On the other hand Euro is also in a bear phase so unless market is getting some positives from these things I do not think stock indexes will see more up moves from here.

Most of the stock indexes are moving on a same range that is quite possible when it is trying to test higher ranges but during last few weeks they are making multiple lows and later days of this week most of these stock indexes were threatening to break recent lows which may create problem if they follows the same trend in coming week. As those stock indexes are still holding their recent lows so there is a possibility that they may again bounce in the upside to follow the same trend which they are doing during last few weeks or months.

Most of the experts are seeing that market is going to crash in coming days but are not we listening this same music again and again either in form of US fiscal cliff or Euro zone fever!  Market is in over-bought zone but was not that in past! So there is nothing new. It is true that in these circumstances it will be hard for general investors to hold long positions but being a day trader I love this type environment.

Let talk about stock indexes,

During last few weeks I was talking about medium term bearish pattern of Dow Jones I.A.  and now finally this week it reacts to some extent on that. During last two days it looks to me that Dow is trying to make a base here so in early days of the coming week Dow may try to reverse from this range but I will be confident about Dow if it breaks 13000 levels. In fact chance of making couple of flat early days may not be ruled out.

But if Dow does not able to hold this level or it drops in the middle days of the coming week then around 12400-12500 will be a good support for Dow.

Dow did not drop much in the last day so the short-term bullish pattern which I talked about though that is not clear yet but that option is still there. I think that picture will be clear if Dow tests around 13200 in coming future.

German DAX is in a position where it has the option of testing around 7000 levels but as we are seeing recent trends, it is not dropping much. In the last day its close was better from its low so it may again reverse from here. Last week I was not confident about creating probable bullish pattern and after this week it is technically out of that but the way Dax is moving in 7200-7400 range, we may get different options. I think if Dax tests 7400 range in the upside then that picture will be clear.

Dax is testing 7400 range during couple of months but during last couple of week it is making lower lows that is not a good sign. This week it faces 3 straight negative days though last day was better but if it again continues that trend in coming week then we may see it testing 7000 level.

If in coming few weeks Dax does not break 7400 ranges then there is a chance of change in environment. Long-term position of Dax is not totally clear, it has both the options open so taking a decisive call is difficult. If we go with long-term reversals then it may drop up to around 6730 level (around 50.0% reversal).

FTSE 100 is still moving in that 5800-5900 ranges. In later days of this week it was trying to break 5800 levels but it is hard to predict from it, especially its close in the last day. If I consider that Ftse is making a base at around 5780 then it may try to reverse from that range in coming week. In the upside it has multiple options but all depend upon breaking 5900 levels in the upside.

Last week I was talking that I may change my opinion about probable bearish pattern of Ftse if it does not drop below 5800 though it did not break it but Ftse is in a position where I have to still hold my past opinions about that medium-term bearish pattern. Though its last day was better but if it fails to hold that gain then there is a chance that Ftse may break around 5700 levels.

On longer time basis its moves in last few weeks are quite expected and I am still hopeful about the upside movement so long it maintains around 5800 ranges in the downside. It is very necessary for Ftse to break around 6150 level to avoid the long-term bearish pattern.

South Korean KOSPI is threatening to make a medium term bearish pattern and as I was expecting it showed little up move this week. Its last day’s move was not good yet if it maintains levels above 1920 then there is a chance that it may test higher levels. Even if coming week becomes good for Kospi but still there will be the chance of creating bearish pattern unless it breaks around 2000 levels in the upside.

Kospi is making lower highs and lower lows and in a medium term bullish situation that is not bad but it is very hard to define any time. For any kind of up moves Kospi needs to break around 1960 in the upside. Earlier I was talking about a short-term bullish pattern for Kospi, though in last week it revealed nothing on this matter but in coming week if Kospi tests 1960 levels then we may get more information on that. In fact in the upside Kospi has multiple opportunities.

At past I told that Kospi is trying to break an initial uptrend line and now it is completely out of that. In coming week if Kospi breaks around 1880-1900 support ranges then it may react on its bearish pattern which may take Kospi towards around 1800 ranges.

Last week I was expecting that if S&P/ASX 200 failed to test 4525 levels then it may drop but it is good to see that again it is maintaining 4450 levels.

Last day’s close was better and in last week it was also looking for support in these ranges but considering the top it made this week I am not very pleased with S&P/ASX. There is a chance that it may break 4450 levels and if it drops from here then 4350 level may act as a good support area though it has initial support level at around 4420 ranges. As I said in past that chance of making medium term bearish pattern is still there if S&P/ASX tests below 4300 level in the downside.

On the other hand if it again reversed from 4450 support level then S&P/ASX needs to first break the 4525 resistance range which it failed to break in last few weeks. If S&P/ASX again tests around 4525 range then there is a good chance that it may make a very short-term positive pattern which may take it towards around 4600 levels.

If we consider that S&P/ASX is in a medium term bullish phase then sometime these types of small corrections (or lower lows) are good sign. Here it is important matter whether S&P/ASX will drop more or it will reverse from this level. I think early days of the coming week may give us a good indication of that and special attention should be given on 4450 level for downside and 4525 level for upside.

Reports due in coming days (from US)

Tuesday, 13th November, 2012 – Small Business Optimism Index

Wednesday, 14th November, 2012 – Producer Price Index, Retail Sales, FOMC minutes.

Thursday, 15th November, 2012 – Unemployment Claims, Consumer Price Index, Empire State Mfg Index, Phila Fed Index.

Friday, 16th November, 2012 – Industrial Production

Others

Monday, 12th November, 2012 – Japanese industrial production, German WPI.

Thursday, 15th November, 2012 – German GDP

About me : I am an active stock trader, I trade on Indian market. I am not a writer but in weekends, I love to spend sometime with it. Though it is an Equity market blog but it also covers Bond & Treasury market as well as currency market.

NOTE :  Disclaimer of my blog www.worldequitymarket.blogspot.com is also applicable to the above writing.

© 2012 Copyright Manas Banerji - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife