Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets - 23rd Oct 21
Easy PC Upgrades with Motherboard Combos - Overclockers UK Unboxing - MB, Memory and Ryzen 5600x CPU - 23rd Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks Q3 2021 - 23rd Oct 21
Gold calmly continues cobbling its Handle, Miners lay in wait - 23rd Oct 21
US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008 - 22nd Oct 21
Extreme Ratios Point to Gold and Silver Price Readjustments - 22nd Oct 21
Bitcoin $100K or Ethereum $10K—which happens first? - 22nd Oct 21
This Isn’t Sci-Fi: How AI Is About To Disrupt This $11 Trillion Industry - 22nd Oct 21
Ravencoin RVN About to EXPLODE to NEW HIGHS! Last Chance to Buy Before it goes to the MOON! - 21st Oct 21
Stock Market Animal Spirits Returning - 21st Oct 21
Inflation Advances, and So Does Gold — Except That It Doesn’t - 21st Oct 21
Why A.I. Is About To Trigger The Next Great Medical Breakthrough - 21st Oct 21
Gold Price Slowly Going Nowhere - 20th Oct 21
Shocking Numbers Show Government Crowding Out Real Economy - 20th Oct 21
Crude Oil Is in the Fast Lane, But Where Is It Going? - 20th Oct 21
3 Tech Stocks That Could Change The World - 20th Oct 21
Best AI Tech Stocks ETF and Investment Trusts - 19th Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Will Investors Dump the Laggards? - 19th Oct 21
The Most Exciting Medical Breakthrough Of The Decade? - 19th Oct 21
Prices Rising as New Dangers Point to Hard Assets - 19th Oct 21
It’s not just Copper; GYX indicated cyclical the whole time - 19th Oct 21
Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia, VIES - Variable Interest Entities - 19th Oct 21
Inflation Peaked Again, Right? - 19th Oct 21
Gold Stocks Bouncing Hard - 19th Oct 21
Stock Market New Intermediate Bottom Forming? - 19th Oct 21
Beware, Gold Bulls — That’s the Beginning of the End - 18th Oct 21
Gold Price Flag Suggests A Big Rally May Start Soon - 18th Oct 21
Inflation Or Deflation – End Result Is Still Depression - 18th Oct 21
A.I. Breakthrough Could Disrupt the $11 Trillion Medical Sector - 18th Oct 21
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 17th Oct 21
The Gold Price And Inflation - 17th Oct 21
Went Long the Crude Oil? Beware of the Headwinds Ahead… - 17th Oct 21
Watch These Next-gen Cloud Computing Stocks - 17th Oct 21
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? - 16th Oct 21
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 16th Oct 21
How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
The Only way to Crush Inflation (not stocks) - 14th Oct 21
Why "Losses Are the Norm" in the Stock Market - 14th Oct 21
Sub Species Castle Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 14th Oct 21
Which Wallet is Best for Storing NFTs? - 14th Oct 21
Ailing UK Pound Has Global Effects - 14th Oct 21
How to Get 6 Years Life Out of Your Overclocked PC System, Optimum GPU, CPU and MB Performance - 13th Oct 21
The Demand Shock of 2022 - 12th Oct 21
4 Reasons Why NFTs Could Be The Future - 12th Oct 21
Crimex Silver: Murder Most Foul - 12th Oct 21
Bitcoin Rockets In Preparation For Liftoff To $100,000 - 12th Oct 21
INTEL Tech Stock to the MOON! INTC 2000 vs 2021 Market Bubble WARNING - 11th Oct 21
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Wall of Worry Meets NFPs - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Continues - 11th Oct 21
China / US Stock Markets Divergence - 10th Oct 21
Can US Save Taiwan From China? Taiwan Strait Naval Battle - PLA vs 7th Fleet War Game Simulation - 10th Oct 21
Gold Price Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US - 10th Oct 21
US Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Housing Market Mortgage Interest Rates - 10th Oct 21
US China War over Taiwan Simulation 2021, Invasion Forecast - Who Will Win? - 9th Oct 21
When Will the Fed Taper? - 9th Oct 21
Dancing with Ghouls and Ghosts at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 9th Oct 21
Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
Scan Computers - Custom Build PC 6 Months Later, Reliability, Issues, Quality of Tech Support Review - 8th Oct 21
Gold and Silver: Your Financial Main Battle Tanks - 8th Oct 21
How to handle the “Twin Crises” Evergrande and Debt Ceiling Threatening Stocks - 8th Oct 21
Why a Peak in US Home Prices May Be Approaching - 8th Oct 21
Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post Pandemic Frights Begin, What it's Like to Enter Scarefest 2021 - 8th Oct 21
AJ Bell vs II Interactive Investor - Which Platform is Best for Buying US FAANG Stocks UK Investing - 7th Oct 21
Gold: Evergrande Investors' Savior - 7th Oct 21
Here's What Really Sets Interest Rates (Not Central Banks) - 7th Oct 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Euro-zone Trauma Means Stock Market Technical Weakness Continues

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Nov 13, 2012 - 07:44 AM GMT

By: Christopher_Quigley

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe technical picture in the market continues to deteriorate. The divergence between the Dow Transports and the Dow Industrials has been resolved with both indices now adopting a bearish stance. The Dow 30, the Dow 20 and the NASDAQ are all trading below their 200 day moving averages. The S & P 500 is only 3 points above this important technical level. In addition, with regard to market breath, the 20 day moving average has crossed the 50 day moving average on the McClennan Summation and the NYSE Advance/Decline Line. I am a great believer in market breath indicators so I reckon we are on the cusp of a bear trend turning into a bear market. It is all in play as we speak but for me the deciding indicator will be the Dow Transports. As mentioned in the October brief, should this index break below the 4850 level decisively, in all probability the bear trend will have gained "legs to last".


Many reckon that the "fiscal cliff" will be quickly sorted and that the positive trend in the American economy will resume. I am not so sure. This was no "ordinary" election. The Republican Party, following the "tea party revolution", is not the "normal" Republican Party. The issue is no longer simply economic. It has become one of identity and meaning, thus the party has become "evangelical". Previously a democratic president could always rely on doing a deal with some breakaway republicans to swing a mandate. Not so today. Any republican that breaks ranks will be seen as a total traitor to a higher cause and banished. This was why there was no fiscal breakthrough last year. The same dynamic will make it even more difficult to negotiate a resolution this second time around.

The closer the economy gets to the cut-off date the more volatile the situation is going to become and I read in the technicals that the market sees a difficult time ahead. I hope I am wrong and that the Transport Index holds.

Dow Industrials: Daily


Dow Transports: Daily


NASDAQ: Daily


S & P 500; Daily


European Trauma:
The European saga with regard to austerity continues apace making one wonder what American and Chinese politicians think of the sham that is Eurozone "financial management".

Spiegel Online: 11th. Nov.
"The disbursement of the next loan tranche to Greece will be significantly delayed, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Scheuble confirmed.

"At the moment I do not see how we can come to a decision on Greece and with Greece at the end of next week, it would be too early," Scaeuble told an economics forum in Hamburg. “We are not out of the woods with Greece yet,” he said, according to news agency Reuters.

Last week, the German minister had said that the troika still has plenty of unanswered questions on Greece and that its work is far from over. According to Reuters, Schauble added that for a large majority of eurozone countries a debt restructuring for Greece is not legally possible.

EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn also stressed on Thursday last that there remained a few more steps to take before the Eurogroup makes its final decision on Greece. “There is no denying that it [Greece's debt] is increasingly unsustainable without further measures”, Rehn told reporters in Brussels.

Earlier in the week, in an interview with Reuters, Rehn had said that the IMF, EC and ECB troika were working with the Greek government to find a way to cut the debt to a more sustainable level.

"It is important to look at ways and means to reduce the debt burden of Greece. We are currently doing this together with the IMF and the Greek government and it may be a combination of factors related to the length of maturities and level of interest rates of official loans," Rehn said.

"However, no haircuts of official loans are on the agenda and they are not necessary," Rehn added."

Greece needs a reprieve in the next few days else its public employee and bond interest cheques will start to bounce. The European Commission will do anything to keep Greece in the Euro and is thus in favor of granting her longer repayment terms and debt write-off. Yet Germany refuses to publicly consider a new bailout. The IMF is also on the side of maintaining original terms. Somebody will have to square all this by the end of the week. It's my guess that Germany and the IMF will be brought to heel, as the formal bankruptcy of Greece would lead to its immediate departure from the Euro and this cannot be contemplated. There is nothing like the abyss to open folk's minds and wallets.

Meanwhile in Spain the austerity measures continue to tear the social fabric apart. 400,000 homes are in foreclosure with no end in sight. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy held emergency meeting with banks yesterday to try to implore them to become more lenient with borrowers. This initiative was forced on him following widespread outrage when Amaia Egana, a 53 year old woman from the Barcalda district, committed public suicide when banks tried to force her from her property.

In the Catalonia region of North Eastern Spain things have become so bad that there is now a growing movement to secede from the Spanish state. Regional president Arthur Mas, who favors secession and wants to hold a referendum, is expected to be re-elected November 25th. King Carlos had stated that secession could lead to the total breakup of Spain and a collapse of the Catalonian economy. He has vowed to prevent it. The Catalonian populace, in the majority, wants to withdraw from the Spanish state but remain in the Euro. The European Commission has gone on the record saying that this would not be possible.

In France, Great Britain and Italy authorities are getting tough with large American public corporations that use strident tax avoidance measures to mitigate taxes. The representatives of entities such as Google, Amazon, Ebay and Starbucks have retorted that what they do is totally legal and within the remit of current international tax treaties between the US and the Eurozone. One British parliamentarian who was interviewing these corporate executives in London yesterday went on the record saying; "yes your actions may be legal but they are not moral".

I reckon that as austerity measures continue to bite across Euroland we will see more and more attacks on favorable tax avoidance measures. This trend can only adversely affect the profitability of international corporations operating throughout Europe, bringing with it more uncertainty, instability and risk to corporate financial planning and assessment.

Charts: Courtesy Of StockCharts.com

By Christopher M. Quigley

B.Sc., M.M.I.I. Grad., M.A.
http://www.wealthbuilder.ie

Mr. Quigley was born in 1958 in Dublin, Ireland. He holds a Bachelor Degree in Accounting and Management from Trinity College Dublin and is a graduate of the Marketing Institute of Ireland. He commenced investing in the stock market in 1989 in Belmont, California where he lived for 6 years. He has developed the Wealthbuilder investment and trading course over the last two decades as a result of research, study and experience. This system marries fundamental analysis with technical analysis and focuses on momentum, value and pension strategies.

Since 2007 Mr. Quigley has written over 80 articles which have been published on popular web   sites based in California, New York, London and Dublin.

Mr. Quigley is now lives in Dublin, Ireland and Tampa Bay, Florida.

© 2012 Copyright Christopher M. Quigley - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Christopher M. Quigley Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in