Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.US Dollar Crashes, Gold And Bitcoin Skyrocket As Economic Recovery Lie Is Exposed - Jeff_Berwick
2.Now Obama Warns Americans to ‘Be Prepared’ for Disaster… What Does He Know? - Jeff_Berwick
3.EU Referendum - Britain's Immigration / Migrant Crisis Explained - Nadeem_Walayat
4.EU Referendum - British People vs Establishment Elite, Vote LEAVE an Act of Defiance! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Prominent Billionaire Investors Warn of Financial Crash, Quietly Position Themselves - MoneyMetals
6.Bankers Warn of BrExit Financial Armageddon if British People Vote for Freedom - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bad U.S. Jobs Report Prompts Stocks Bear Market Rally Towards New All Time Highs! - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Gold And Silver – Friday May Have Marked A Pivotal Turnaround - Michael_Noonan
9.EU Referendum - British People vs Establishment Elite, the Illusion of Democracy and Freedom - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Felix Zulauf: Monetary Stimulation Creates Bubbles, Not Prosperity Nor Growth - GoldandLiberty
Free Silver
Last 7 days
Venezuela vs. Ecuador (Chavismo vs. Chavismo Dollarized) - 25th June 16
Gold, Silver And PM Stocks Summer Doldrums Risk - 24th June 16
Here’s Why China “Economic Hard-Landing” Worries Are Overblown - 24th June 16
Jubilee Jolt: Markets Crash, Gold Skyrockets as Britain Takes Brexit - 24th June 16
BrExit Morning - New Dawn for Britain, Independence Day! - 24th June 16
LEAVE Wins EU Referendum - Sterling and FTSE Hit Hard, Pollsters, Bookies and Markets All WRONG! - 24th June 16
Trading BrExit - British Pound Plunges, FTSE Stock Futures Slump on LEAVE Shock Referendum Win - 24th June 16
EU Referendum Shock Results Putting BrExit LEAVE in the Lead Hitting Sterling Hard - 24th June 16
Final Opinion Poll Gives REMAIN 52% Lead, Bookmakers, Markets and Pollsters ALL Back REMAIN Win - 23rd June 16
Does BREXIT Matter? Outlook for Sterling - 23rd June 16
Keep Calm and Vote BrExit - Last Chance to Break Free of EU Superstate - 23rd June 16
Here’s the Foreign Policy Trump and Clinton Really Want - 23rd June 16
Details Behind Semiconductor Stocks Leadership - 23rd June 16
Trading BrExit - Stocks, Bonds, Sterling, Opinion Polls, Bookmaker Odds and My Forecast - 23rd June 16
BrExit Looks Set to Win EU Referendum, Final Opinion Polls Give LEAVE Lead Over REMAIN - 22nd June 16
Proof that the Gold Bears are Wrong - 22nd June 16
Here’s a Trillion-Dollar Investment Opportunity for Those Few with No Debt - 22nd June 16
BrExit to Save Europe from Climate Change Refugee Migration Apocalypse - 22nd June 16
Increase In U.S. Rig Count Will Not Cap Oil Prices - 22nd June 16
Are Copper and China Stocks Set to Rally? - 22nd June 16
SPX May Break Its Trendline - 22nd June 16
Believe it or Not: More Kids Live At Home Now than Since The Great Depression - 21st June 16
EU Referendum Latest Opinion Polls Show LEAVE Halting REMAINs Surge - 21st June 16
British Pound Outlook - BREXIT, Europe and You - Does your vote matter? - 21st June 16
Fascist Victory Behind the European Union - 21st June 16
EU Referendum Opinion Polls Analysis Shows Strong Momentum in REMAINs Favour - 21st June 16
Is It Time to Dump Gold and Buy Platinum? - 21st June 16
Could Central Bankers Be Gold and Silver's BIGGEST Allies? - 20th June 16
Words Still Mean Things – Brexit With Graham Mehl - 20th June 16
Baroness Warsi the Manchurian Candidate Quits LEAVE for REMAIN, Boris Johnson Next? - 20th June 16
FTSE Soars, Stock Markets Bounce on LEAVE Polls Surge, Bookmakers Widen BrExit Odds - 20th June 16
Brexit Would Trigger Devolution of Europe - 20th June 16
Stock Market Week Of Uncertainty - 20th June 16
Will Gold’s Bullish Price Chart Outperform Gold’s 5 Bearish Indicators? - 20th June 16
Bonds And Stocks At All-Time Highs: Are Markets Confused Or Broken? - 20th June 16
Silver Sleeping On the Job - 19th June 16
BrExit Odds Sink, REMAIN Polls Boost by Jo Cox Killing by Radical Right Extremist, Conspiracy? - 19th June 16
How Elliott Waves Tell You When to "Jump In" & When to "Jump Out" of Markets - 18th June 16
Stock Market Inflection Point During Bifurcation - 18th June 16
Gold And Silver – Insanity Is World “Norm.” Keep Stacking! - 18th June 16
Gold Stocks - Bull Markets that Follow Epic Bears - 18th June 16
The Fed Giveth and the Gold Bullion Banks Taketh Away… - 17th June 16
Brexit: "The Vote Heard Around the World" - 17th June 16
Gold Stocks Summer Breakout? - 17th June 16
Stock Investors Get Higher Returns and More Dividend Income - In Less Time With Less Risk - 17th June 16
How to Use the Gold-to-Silver Ratio? - 17th June 16
Inflation, Deflation & Associated Trading Prospects - 17th June 16
Overnight Markets Struggling to Stay Flat - 17th June 16
Gold Price Surges to Highest in Nearly Two Years On Central Bank and Brexit Haven Demand - 17th June 16
Stock Market Thinking Upside Down; Dow 18k Still Key - 17th June 16
Jo Cox MP Terror Attack Killing Claimed for "Britain First" - Witness Report - 17th June 16
Stock Market, Iron Ore, Bitcoin – Is Silver Next for Chinese Momentum Investors? - 16th June 16
EU Referendum Campaigning Suspended Following Shooting of MP Jo Cox, Suspect Named as Tommy Mair - 16th June 16
Why People are Migrating to the UK, Illegal Immigration, Housing Crisis Consequences - 16th June 16
Stocks Fluctuate Following Recent Decline - Bottom Or Just Pause Before Another Leg Down? - 16th June 16
The US Consumer-Driven Economy Has Hit a Brick Wall - 16th June 16
Bitcoin Price Going Parabolic Again, Now At $730 and Up 60%+ In Last Three Weeks - 16th June 16
China's Hard Landing Has Already Begun! - 16th June 16
Crude Oil Price - Oil Bears vs. Support Zone - 16th June 16
Central Bankers Are Wrong About Inflation and Deflation - 15th June 16
Alignment Of The Dow, Interest Rates, Debt and Silver Cycles Will Deliver A Fatal Blow - 15th June 16
Stock Market Bounce May be Over - 15th June 16
EU Referendum: Have the Bookmakers Got it Wrong? LEAVE Opinion Polls Lead - 15th June 16
Gold Price Rally - 15th June 16
How to Invest for Brexit Report - 15th June 16
Stock Market Short of the Decade? - 15th June 16
Stock Market Sell Off Coming! - 14th June 16
QE - The Good, Bad & Ugly - 14th June 16
This Demographic Shift Makes Our Social Security Useless - 14th June 16
Gold Stocks Ultimate Objective in a World of Monetary Transition - 14th June 16
Philosophy of the New World Order - 14th June 16
The Brexit Game - Boris Johnson vs David Cameron EU Referendum Zombies - 14th June 16
EU Referendum: LEAVE Opinion Poll Lead of 51% to 49% Whilst Bookmaker Odds Still Strongly Favour REMAIN - 14th June 16
George Soros Making Big Bets on Gold - 14th June 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

Euro-zone Trauma Means Stock Market Technical Weakness Continues

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Nov 13, 2012 - 07:44 AM GMT

By: Christopher_Quigley

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe technical picture in the market continues to deteriorate. The divergence between the Dow Transports and the Dow Industrials has been resolved with both indices now adopting a bearish stance. The Dow 30, the Dow 20 and the NASDAQ are all trading below their 200 day moving averages. The S & P 500 is only 3 points above this important technical level. In addition, with regard to market breath, the 20 day moving average has crossed the 50 day moving average on the McClennan Summation and the NYSE Advance/Decline Line. I am a great believer in market breath indicators so I reckon we are on the cusp of a bear trend turning into a bear market. It is all in play as we speak but for me the deciding indicator will be the Dow Transports. As mentioned in the October brief, should this index break below the 4850 level decisively, in all probability the bear trend will have gained "legs to last".


Many reckon that the "fiscal cliff" will be quickly sorted and that the positive trend in the American economy will resume. I am not so sure. This was no "ordinary" election. The Republican Party, following the "tea party revolution", is not the "normal" Republican Party. The issue is no longer simply economic. It has become one of identity and meaning, thus the party has become "evangelical". Previously a democratic president could always rely on doing a deal with some breakaway republicans to swing a mandate. Not so today. Any republican that breaks ranks will be seen as a total traitor to a higher cause and banished. This was why there was no fiscal breakthrough last year. The same dynamic will make it even more difficult to negotiate a resolution this second time around.

The closer the economy gets to the cut-off date the more volatile the situation is going to become and I read in the technicals that the market sees a difficult time ahead. I hope I am wrong and that the Transport Index holds.

Dow Industrials: Daily


Dow Transports: Daily


NASDAQ: Daily


S & P 500; Daily


European Trauma:
The European saga with regard to austerity continues apace making one wonder what American and Chinese politicians think of the sham that is Eurozone "financial management".

Spiegel Online: 11th. Nov.
"The disbursement of the next loan tranche to Greece will be significantly delayed, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Scheuble confirmed.

"At the moment I do not see how we can come to a decision on Greece and with Greece at the end of next week, it would be too early," Scaeuble told an economics forum in Hamburg. “We are not out of the woods with Greece yet,” he said, according to news agency Reuters.

Last week, the German minister had said that the troika still has plenty of unanswered questions on Greece and that its work is far from over. According to Reuters, Schauble added that for a large majority of eurozone countries a debt restructuring for Greece is not legally possible.

EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn also stressed on Thursday last that there remained a few more steps to take before the Eurogroup makes its final decision on Greece. “There is no denying that it [Greece's debt] is increasingly unsustainable without further measures”, Rehn told reporters in Brussels.

Earlier in the week, in an interview with Reuters, Rehn had said that the IMF, EC and ECB troika were working with the Greek government to find a way to cut the debt to a more sustainable level.

"It is important to look at ways and means to reduce the debt burden of Greece. We are currently doing this together with the IMF and the Greek government and it may be a combination of factors related to the length of maturities and level of interest rates of official loans," Rehn said.

"However, no haircuts of official loans are on the agenda and they are not necessary," Rehn added."

Greece needs a reprieve in the next few days else its public employee and bond interest cheques will start to bounce. The European Commission will do anything to keep Greece in the Euro and is thus in favor of granting her longer repayment terms and debt write-off. Yet Germany refuses to publicly consider a new bailout. The IMF is also on the side of maintaining original terms. Somebody will have to square all this by the end of the week. It's my guess that Germany and the IMF will be brought to heel, as the formal bankruptcy of Greece would lead to its immediate departure from the Euro and this cannot be contemplated. There is nothing like the abyss to open folk's minds and wallets.

Meanwhile in Spain the austerity measures continue to tear the social fabric apart. 400,000 homes are in foreclosure with no end in sight. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy held emergency meeting with banks yesterday to try to implore them to become more lenient with borrowers. This initiative was forced on him following widespread outrage when Amaia Egana, a 53 year old woman from the Barcalda district, committed public suicide when banks tried to force her from her property.

In the Catalonia region of North Eastern Spain things have become so bad that there is now a growing movement to secede from the Spanish state. Regional president Arthur Mas, who favors secession and wants to hold a referendum, is expected to be re-elected November 25th. King Carlos had stated that secession could lead to the total breakup of Spain and a collapse of the Catalonian economy. He has vowed to prevent it. The Catalonian populace, in the majority, wants to withdraw from the Spanish state but remain in the Euro. The European Commission has gone on the record saying that this would not be possible.

In France, Great Britain and Italy authorities are getting tough with large American public corporations that use strident tax avoidance measures to mitigate taxes. The representatives of entities such as Google, Amazon, Ebay and Starbucks have retorted that what they do is totally legal and within the remit of current international tax treaties between the US and the Eurozone. One British parliamentarian who was interviewing these corporate executives in London yesterday went on the record saying; "yes your actions may be legal but they are not moral".

I reckon that as austerity measures continue to bite across Euroland we will see more and more attacks on favorable tax avoidance measures. This trend can only adversely affect the profitability of international corporations operating throughout Europe, bringing with it more uncertainty, instability and risk to corporate financial planning and assessment.

Charts: Courtesy Of StockCharts.com

By Christopher M. Quigley

B.Sc., M.M.I.I. Grad., M.A.
http://www.wealthbuilder.ie

Mr. Quigley was born in 1958 in Dublin, Ireland. He holds a Bachelor Degree in Accounting and Management from Trinity College Dublin and is a graduate of the Marketing Institute of Ireland. He commenced investing in the stock market in 1989 in Belmont, California where he lived for 6 years. He has developed the Wealthbuilder investment and trading course over the last two decades as a result of research, study and experience. This system marries fundamental analysis with technical analysis and focuses on momentum, value and pension strategies.

Since 2007 Mr. Quigley has written over 80 articles which have been published on popular web   sites based in California, New York, London and Dublin.

Mr. Quigley is now lives in Dublin, Ireland and Tampa Bay, Florida.

© 2012 Copyright Christopher M. Quigley - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Christopher M. Quigley Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife