Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Is Crude Oil Firmly on the Upswing Now? - 20th Feb 20
What Can Stop the Stocks Bull – Or At Least, Make It Pause? - 20th Feb 20
Trump and Economic News That Drive Gold, Not Just Coronavirus - 20th Feb 20
Coronavirus COVID19 UK Infection Prevention, Boosting Immune Systems, Birmingham, Sheffield - 20th Feb 20
Silver’s Valuable Insights Into the Upcoming PMs Rally - 20th Feb 20
Coronavirus Coming Storm Act Now to Protect Yourselves and Family to Survive COVID-19 Pandemic - 19th Feb 20
Future Silver Prices Will Shock People, and They’ll Kick Themselves for Not Buying Under $20… - 19th Feb 20
What Alexis Kennedy Learned from Launching Cultist Simulator - 19th Feb 20
Stock Market Potential Short-term top - 18th Feb 20
Coronavirus Fourth Turning - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 18th Feb 20
The Stocks Hit Worst From the Coronavirus - 18th Feb 20
Tips on Pest Control: How to Prevent Pests and Rodents - 18th Feb 20
Buying a Custom Built Gaming PC From Overclockers.co.uk - 1. Delivery and Unboxing - 17th Feb 20
BAIDU (BIDU) Illustrates Why You Should NOT Invest in Chinese Stocks - 17th Feb 20
Financial Markets News Report: February 17, 2020 - February 21, 2020 - 17th Feb 20
NVIDIA (NVDA) GPU King For AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 17th Feb 20
Stock Market Bubble - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 17th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020 - 16th Feb 20
SAMSUNG AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 16th Feb 20
Ignore the Polls, the Markets Have Already Told You Who Wins in 2020 - 16th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic WARNING! Sheffield, Manchester, Birmingham Outbreaks Probable - 16th Feb 20
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 15th Feb 20
Gold Stocks Still Stalled - 15th Feb 20
Is The Technology Stocks Sector Setting Up For A Crash? - 15th Feb 20
UK Calm Before Corona Virus Storm - Infections Forecast into End March 2020 - 15th Feb 20
The Growing Weaponization of Space - 14th Feb 20
Will the 2020s Be Good or Bad for the Gold Market? - 14th Feb 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests Gold Price Will Break Above $1650 Within 15~30 Days - 14th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Trend Forecast 2020 - 14th Feb 20
Coronavirus, Powell and Gold - 14th Feb 20
How the Corona Virus is Affecting Global Stock Markets - 14th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend and Elliott Wave Analysis - 13th Feb 20
Owning and Driving a Land Rover Discovery Sport in 2020 - 2 YEAR Review - 13th Feb 20
Shipping Rates Plunge, Commodities and Stocks May Follow - 13th Feb 20
Powell says Fed will aggressively use QE to fight next recession - 13th Feb 20
PALLADIUM - THIS Is What a Run on the Bank for Precious Metals Looks Like… - 13th Feb 20
Bitcoin: "Is it too late to get in?" Get Answers Now - 13th Feb 20
China Coronavirus Infections Soar by 1/3rd to 60,000, Deaths Jump to 1,367 - 13th Feb 20
Crude Oil Price Action – Like a Coiled Spring Already? - 13th Feb 20
China Under Reporting Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections, Africa and South America Hidden Outbreaks - 12th Feb 20
Will USD X Decline About to Trigger Precious Metals Rally - 12th Feb 20
Copper Market is a Coiled Spring - 12th Feb 20
Dow Theory Stock Market Warning from the Utilities Index - 12th Feb 20
How to Get Virgin Media Engineers to FIX Hub 3.0 Problems and NOT BS Customers - 12th Feb 20
China Under Reporting Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections by 66% Due to Capacity Constraints - 12th Feb 20
Is Coronavirus the Black Swan That Takes Gold To-Da-Moon? - 12th Feb 20
Stock Market 2020 – A Close Look At What To Expect - 12th Feb 20
IBM AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 11th Feb 20
The US Dollar’s Subtle Message for Gold - 11th Feb 20
What All To Do Before Opening A Bank Account For Your Business - 11th Feb 20
How and When to Enter Day Trades & Swing Trade For Maximum Gains - 11th Feb 20
The Great Stock Market Dichotomy - 11th Feb 20
Stock Market Sector Rotation Should Peak Within 60+ Days – Part II - 11th Feb 20
CoronaVirus Pandemic Stocks Bear Market Risk 2020? - Video - 11th Feb 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Silver Overall Trend Remains Bullish

Commodities / Gold & Silver Feb 20, 2008 - 08:24 AM GMT

By: Roland_Watson

Commodities

This is a copy of the last update on silver sent out to subscribers at the weekend. Explanatory notes are added in italics.

Here are the numbers for this week past:

London Silver Fix Price: $17.38 (+$0.43 on week)
NYMEX Spot Price: $17.06 (-$0.12)
US Dollar Index: 76.21 (-0.61)


Silver RSI: 60.80 (-6.75) ( 70 overbought/30 oversold )
US Dollar RSI: 49.38 (-8.59) ( 70 overbought/30 oversold )

RMAR: 1.02 (+0.02) ( 1.30 overbought )
NYMEX SLI: 1.24 (+0.05) (1.80 overbought)
GOLD SILVER RATIO: 52.50 (-1.56) (15 overbought)

Silver 50 day moving average: $15.92 (+0.29)

Silver Velocity since bottom (16th August 2007 184 days ago): 3.08 cents per day
Silver velocity at same point in 2004 spike (01/12/03): 0.51 cents per day
Silver velocity at same point in 2006 spike (01/03/06): 1.66 cents per day

(The silver velocity numbers indicate how "fast" the current up leg in silver is moving compared to the last two bulls which spiked in 2004 and 2006. The average cents per day progress is shown for the same time into each bull since their corresponding breakout. Clearly this new bull move is far stronger than the previous two moves!)

As discussed last week we had a gap on the 8th which would be bullish if not filled in quickly. The gap was not filled over the subsequent week even though silver was consolidating sideways. However our suggested strong move up for the week ahead was indeed dampened by the US Dollar Index breaking its 50 day moving average. Not surprisingly (going by past form), the dollar has dropped back below its 50 dma which to me is bullish for silver.

The attached silver chart however shows the upward trend is intact and indeed has accelerated to a steeper gradient. So far that trendline is finding support at $17.00 whilst our longer term 50 day moving average offers support at just under $16.

The RMAR and SLI make progress towards their sell trigger points with 0.02 and 0.05 moves respectively on the week. As a guide to future expectations, if silver blew off to a sell point in mid-May, the RMAR and SLI on average would have to progress about 0.02 and 0.04 each week, so those are the kind of numbers we are looking for if a sell signal is to be anticipated.

So the overall trend is still intact and bullish.

A short word to close on something a few subscribers have mentioned and that is the proposed IMF sale of 400 tonnes of gold. Is it bearish for gold and by how much?

Firstly, note that the US Congress may block the proposed sale again as they did in 1999. However, that was done at a time when gold was at major low prices and further sales would have been seen as too disruptive to already suffering gold producers. With gold near $1000, they may not be so concerned about revenues of gold producers.

Secondly, if it proceeds, the sales will be staged in a manner similar to the 500 tonnes quotas of the Washington Agreement. In other words, it won't be dumped on the markets in one go and that was a specific concern that accompanies any major government gold sales. Indeed, there is an opinion that none of the gold will see public sales but be snapped up by governments who are quite prepared to shore up central bank reserves or sovereign wealth funds with some inflation proof assets.

So, the impact to me will be minimal. In fact, the markets may already be discounting these gold sales in the current price of gold which may partly explain why silver is outperforming gold and may well continue to do so.

In fact, I suspect when the auctions proceed, gold will jump in value (sell the rumour and buy the news). And remember that the Washington Agreement never put any serious brakes on the gold bull.

Finally, the less gold in government hands the better in my opinion!

 

By Roland Watson
http://silveranalyst.blogspot.com

Further analysis of the SLI indicator and more can be obtained by going to our silver blog at http://silveranalyst.blogspot.com where readers can obtain the first issue of The Silver Analyst free and learn about subscription details. Comments and questions are also invited via email to silveranalysis@yahoo.co.uk .

Roland Watson Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules