Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 Implications for Stock Market - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Odds of Winning Walkers Crisps Spell & Go olidays K, C and D Letters - Sami_Walayat
3.Massive Silver Price Rally During The Coming US Dollar Collapse - Hubert_Moolman
4.Pope Francis Calls For Worldwide Communist Government - Jeff_Berwick
5.EU Referendum Opinion Polls Neck and Neck Despite Operation Fear, Support BrExit Campaign - Nadeem_Walayat
6.David Morgan: There Will Soon Be a Run to Gold Like You've Never Seen Before - Mike Gleason
7.British Pound Soars on BrExit Hopes Despite Remain Establishment Fear Mongering - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Gold Price Possible $200 Rally - Bob_Loukas
9.The Federal Reserve is Not Going To Raise Interest Rates and Destroy Gold - Michael_Swanson
10.Silver Miners’ Q1’ 2016 Fundamentals - Zeal_LLC
Free Silver
Last 7 days
The Worst Urban Crisis in History Could be Upon Us - 24th May 16
Death Crosses Across The Board Are IRREFUTABLE Stock Market Sell Signals - 24th May 16
Bitcoin Trading Alert: Bitcoin Price Stays below $450 - 24th May 16
Stock Market Crash Death Cross Doom Prevails - 23rd May 16
Did AMAT Chirp? Implications for the Economy and Gold - 23rd May 16
Stocks Extended Their Rebound On Friday - Will They Continue Higher? - 23rd May 16
UK Treasury Propaganda Warns of 3.6% Brexit Recession, the £64 Billion Question? - 23rd May 16
Stock Market Support Breached, But Not Broken! - 23rd May 16
George Osborne Warns of 18% Cheaper House Prices - BrExit for First Time Buyers - 22nd May 16
Gold Bull-Phase I Continues to Confound (The Trek to “Known Values”) - 22nd May 16 r
Avoiding a War in Space - 22nd May 16
Will Venezuela Be Forced to Embrace the US Dollar? - 21st May 16
Danish Central Bank Stumbles with Its Currency Peg to the Euro - 21st May 16
SPX Downtrend Underway - 21st May 16
George Osborne Warns of More Affordable UK Housing Market if BrExit Happens - 21st May 16
Gold And Silver 11th Hour: Globalists 10 v People 0 - 21st May 16
David Morgan: There Will Soon Be a Run to Gold Like You've Never Seen Before - 21st May 16
Gold Stocks Following Bull Analogs - 20th May 16
The Gold Chart That Has Central Banks Extremely Worried - 20th May 16
Silver Miners’ Q1’ 2016 Fundamentals - 20th May 16
Stock Market Rally At the End of the Road? - 20th May 16
British Pound Soars on BrExit Hopes Despite Remain Establishment Fear Mongering - 20th May 16
NASDAQ 100, FTSE, and British Pound - When Rare Market Data Screams, Listen  - 20th May 16
Unintended Consequences, Part 1: Easy Money = Overcapacity = Deflation - 19th May 16
The Federal Reserve is Not Going To Raise Interest Rates and Destroy Gold - 19th May 16
Stock Market Final Supports Are Broken - 19th May 16
Gold - Pro-Inflation? Anti-USD? - 19th May 16
Further Stock Market Uncertainty As Indexes Gained On Friday, Will Uptrend Resume? - 19th May 16
What This U.S. Presidential Election Tells Us About Her Millennial Generation - 18th May 16
Stock Market Trendline Broken on Fed Announcement - 18th May 16
An Incredibly Simple, Rarely Used Way to Book 170% Investing Gains - 18th May 16
Statistically Significant Stock Market Death Cross? - 18th May 16
Precisely Wrong on US Dollar, Gold? - 18th May 16
What You Can Gain From One Tech CEO's $355 Million Loss - 18th May 16
The ‘Tide’ has turned… NEGATIVE For STOCKS!!! - 18th May 16
Goldman Sachs's - Regulatory Climate is Chilling Deals; Hatzius Not Worried About a Recession - 18th May 16
Bitcoin Price Remains above $450 - 18th May 16
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 Implications for Stock Market - 17 May 16
Could the National Debt Really Grow as High as $31 Trillion by 2023? - 17 May 16
Gold Price Possible $200 Rally - 17 May 16
Crisis Investing - Jim Rogers on “Buying Panic” - 17 May 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

Stock Market Crash to Start This Morning!

Stock-Markets / Financial Crash Nov 16, 2012 - 03:34 AM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

The fractals are getting shorter, which means that the market is gaining momentum as it declines.  Let’s examine the fractals making up the waves in the chart. 

First, a point of clarification.  I view the October 5 high as the Orthodox high, although the cycles called for the high on September 14.  In my opinion, the Elliott Waves fell in line by producing a truncated 5th wave on October 5.


Starting from the September 14 high, there were 3 fractals to October 5.  Their lengths were 34 hours, 43 hours and 26 hours.

From October 5 to October 18 there were two fractals, the first was 34 hours and the second was 30 hours.

From October 18 to November 1, there were two fractals of 21 hours each.

Since November 1, there have been five fractals, each at 17 hours duration.  The last one peaked at 2:00 pm Eastern time today. 

Today is another Pivot day, so we may see a further change in the fractals going forward.  They might compress to 12.9 hours, 11 hours or possibly 8.6 hours.  The next Pivot day is Tuesday, November 20.  The one following is on Friday, November 23.  This leaves us with the probability of taking profits most likely on Tuesday or Wednesday early morning.  If the decline lasts until Thanksgiving day, November 22, there will probably be a hue and cry for the Fed to do something about it, so I don’t expect the decline to last after next week…the worst that may happen is that it could last until the Friday after Thanksgiving.  Pray that the officials don’t close the market for more than 15 minutes or a half hour.  That would make these calculations a bit more difficult.

I expect the crash to start tomorrow morning.  A panic situation usually resolves in three days.  My best guess is that, if the fractals measure 8.6 hours each, we should be done by Tuesday morning, with the brunt of the crash on Monday.  12.9 hour fractals may prolong the crash until Wednesday morning.  The May 6, 2010 Flash Crash fractal was exactly 8.6 hours long.  Last year’s August 1 through August 9 Flash Crash consisted of 4 fractals in the following order; 21 hours, 11 hours, 9 hours and 6 hours. 

There is no telling what combination we may see, so I will simply have to monitor the fractals to gauge the time.  The wave structure suggests there may be at least 3-4 more fractals left in this decline, so compression will be the name of the game next week.

In regards to distance, I fully expect to meet or exceed the October 2011 low at 1974.77.  However, there are some additional issues in regards to the Yen, the Euro and High Yield markets that may put even more liquidity demands on the market. Plus margin calls…you get the picture.  Again, my model suggests that, if the SPX declines beneath 1100, there may be yet another 200-point drop in store.   That may mean the fractals may be shorter in time, but longer in distance as the crash persists.

I have just about worn out this topic, so I’ll call it a day.

Regards,

Tony

Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web

We are in the process of updating our website at www.thepracticalinvestor.com to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.

If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at tpi@thepracticalinvestor.com .

Anthony M. Cherniawski, President and CIO http://www.thepracticalinvestor.com

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife