Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.BrExit House Prices Crash, Flat or Rally? UK Housing Market Affordability Crisis - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Stocks Bull Market Climbs Wall of Worry, Bubble? When Will it End? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Gold Price Is Now On Its Way To All-Time Highs - Hubert_Moolman
4.Deutche Bank Stock Price Crash - The EU Has Problems Far Beyond the Brexit - Harry_Dent
5.UK interest Rate PANIC CUT! As Banks Prepare to Steal Customer Deposits - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Gold and Silver Bull Phase 1 : Final Impulse Dead Ahead - Plunger
7.Central Bankers Fighting An Unprecedented Global Economic Slowdown - Gordon_T_Long
8.Putin Hacking Hillary for Trump, Russia's Manchurian Candidate? - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Stock Market Insiders Are Secretly Selling, Cycle Top Next Month - Chris_Vermeulen
10.Gold Sector - Is it time to Back up the Truck? – Mortgage the Farm? - Peter_Degraaf
Free Silver
Last 7 days
Have The Markets Become Too Big to Fail? - 29th Aug 16
Pakistan Booming House Prices Housing Market Mania Kabza Mafia Warning! - 29th Aug 16
Post Yellen = Market Confusion - 28th Aug 16
Theresa May Instructs Police, NHS Gp's, Public Sector To Stop Racial Discrimination in Service Delivery - 28th Aug 16
Ignore Yellen and Buy the Dip in Precious Metals - 27th Aug 16
SPX Downtrend Should be Underway - 27th Aug 16
Unraveling the Secular Economic Stagnation Story - 27th Aug 16
The Precious Metals Sector and the Fed. . . - 27th Aug 16
Stock Market - All Is Calm, All Is Not Right - 27th Aug 16
Gold Junior Stocks Q2 2016 Fundamentals - 26th Aug 16
Buy Gold’s August Dip? Gold’s Monthly Sweet Spot In September - 26th Aug 16
The IMF’s Internal Audit Reveals Its Incompetence and Massive Rule Breaking - 26th Aug 16
Commodities Are the Best Bargain Now—Here’s What to Buy - 26th Aug 16
Why I Left Canada and Became A Citizen of the Dominican Republic - 26th Aug 16
The GLD vs GOLD - 26th Aug 16
Can Stocks Survive Without Stimulus? - 25th Aug 16
Why Putin Might Be on His Way Out - 25th Aug 16
Bond Guru Gary Shilling - The Bond Market Rally of a Lifetime - 25th Aug 16
A Zombie Financial System, Black Swans and a Gold Share Correction - 25th Aug 16
OPEC’s Output Freeze: What Has Changed Since Doha? - 25th Aug 16
Merkel Prepares For a Deliberate Crisis While White House Plans For a Disastrous Succession - 24th Aug 16
Suspicious Reversal in Gold Price - 23rd Aug 16
If Trump Can’t Pull Off a Victory, Expect a Civil War - 23rd Aug 16
Ceding ICANN and Internet Control to Globalists - 23rd Aug 16
How to Spot an Oversold Stock Market - 23rd Aug 16
Gerald Celente Sees Worst Market Crash, New Military Conflict, Gold Spike to $2,000/oz - 23rd Aug 16
EU Olympics Medals Table Propaganda Includes BrExit Britain - 22nd Aug 16
BrExit Win's Britain Olympics Success Freedom Dividend, Economy Next - 22nd Aug 16
Stock Market Top Forming, but Slowly - 22nd Aug 16
(Really) Alternative Banking Systems - 22nd Aug 16
Vauxhall Zafira Fires - Second Recall Issued - Inspection Before Bursting into Flames? - 21st Aug 16
Will the Stock Market Bubble Pop Regardless if the FED Never Raises Rates? - 21st Aug 16
US Government Spending - 3 Big Stories Not Being Covered – Part III - 21st Aug 16
Silver Analysis - 20th Aug 16
SPX New Highs, Correction Next? - 20th Aug 16
Housing Bubble - The Marginal Buyer Holds The Pin That Pops Every Asset Bubble - 20th Aug 16
Gold Miners Q2 2016 Fundamentals - 19th Aug 16
Which Price Ratio Matters Most in a Fiat Ponzi? - 19th Aug 16
Big Policies, Bigger Failures - 19th Aug 16
Higher Crude Oil’s Prices and USD/CAD - 19th Aug 16
Here’s Why You Should Look for Dividend Stocks and How - 19th Aug 16
Deglobalization Already Underway — 4 Technologies That Will Speed It Up - 19th Aug 16
These 6 Charts Show Why the Average American Is Fed Up - 18th Aug 16
SPX Easing Lower - 18th Aug 16
Low / Negative Interst Rate’s Legacy - 18th Aug 16
The 45th Anniversary of The Most Destructive Event In Modern Monetary History - 18th Aug 16
USDU - An Important Perspective on the US Dollar - 17th Aug 16
SPX Completes Wave 1 Decline - 17th Aug 16
How to Quickly Spot Common Fibonacci Ratios on a Chart - 17th Aug 16
When Does a Forecast Become a Trade? - 17th Aug 16
Kondratiev Wave - The Financial Winter Is Nearing! - 17th Aug 16
Learn "The 4 Best Elliott Waves to Trade -- and How to Trade Them" - 16th Aug 16
Stock Market Bears Turning Bullish At New All Time Highs - Time to Get Worried? - 15th Aug 16
Job Seekers Sacrificed to the Inflation Gods - 15th Aug 16
A Look At Commodities and Financial Markets Trading Week Ahead - 15th Aug 16
Stock Market New Top Forming? - 15th Aug 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

US Economy - 3 Secret Charts

What Would Happen in a Stock Market Crash?

Stock-Markets / Financial Crash Nov 16, 2012 - 07:13 AM GMT

By: Money_Morning

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShah Gilani writes: Hang onto your hats. It's getting windy out there. Stuff is blowing all over the place.

Oh, that's not wind! That's a giant fan. Well then, that must be why this "stuff" stinks so bad.


What stuff?

How about the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling more than 1,000 points from multi-year highs reached only a few weeks ago?

Or that the Dow has nosedived 5%, ever since the fateful morning last week when we found out that polls don't mean anything, that Republicans don't have memories like elephants, and that Obamarama is still the game we're playing?

Or that the Nasdaq - you know, that tech bellwether index that a lot of analysts believe is our economic canary in the coalmine - is down 10.6% (technically in "correction" territory) since reaching its highs back in late September? Or that it's down 5.5% since the elation, I mean election?

That's not only stinky stuff; it is scary stuff.

Supposedly the reason the market is going down is that we're nearing the fiscal cliff and may be heading over it. But that outcome doesn't worry me.

My colleague Martin Hutchinson - a brilliant banker - isn't worried about it either.

He just came out yesterday morning with the following reality check: "Contrary to all of the media caterwauling, [the fiscal cliff is] not a dreadful fate. In fact, it is exactly what we ought to be doing, since it solves 77% of the deficit problem in one fell swoop."

You can follow Martin's argument for facing the fiscal cliff right here.

Even Warren Buffett said yesterday that going over the fiscal cliff wouldn't be as bad as everyone is making it out to be, and that if we go over it we'll bounce back like we're attached to a giant bungee cord. That's comforting - to Warren, that is. That's because he likes to buy when things hit bottom. He's a clever one, that Warren.

What Would Happen in a Stock Market Crash?
Here's a heads-up for you: The biggest "cliff" we have to worry about is the market falling.

After all, the market has been the primary instrument of interest and intention, as far as the Federal Reserve's articulated policy of pumping it up with cheap money (that's also known as leverage, people), so we all feel good about our pensions and 401(k)s and all our investments.

Then, when we're brimming with confidence, we will all go out and consume again, and again, and again, and borrow to do it - kind of exactly like what our government does.

And then there's the Fed's other policy prescription: massive giveaways to banks to buy the government's debts. (Hey, isn't that what they're doing over in Europe?)

Banks then "repo" that debt (that's short for "repurchase agreement," which is when you lend your treasury bills and bonds and get cash, and agree to repurchase your collateral later to close the loan) to get more money to buy more treasuries, and so on and so on.

Oh, and sometimes they lend out some of their money. After all, they are banks, not hedge funds, you silly people.

So what happens if the market does fall off a cliff?

What's the Fed going to do then to build up our confidence? Are they going to pay off the margin calls we get when our brokers call us for more dope because we were on dope when we believed the Fed could engineer a rising market with leverage but no downside?

The Fed is out of bullets. If the market crashes, we are in deep doo-doo.

Big Trouble at the FHA
You know what else stinks? This $100 billion shortfall at the FHA.

The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) - speaking of a canary in a coalmine - is in dire straits. That spells another round of trouble for real estate. No, we're not out of those woods yet.

When the mortgage crisis hit and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had to be bailed out, the whole game of the government backstopping, aiding, and abetting mortgage origination and dissemination came to a grinding halt.

Things were so bad that the government decided to do something about it. So they punted all the problems Fannie and Freddie created, but couldn't stomach, over to the FHA.

The FHA doesn't lend money. It insures lenders against borrowers defaulting on the mortgages they get. Since lenders weren't able to originate mortgages and sell them off to Fannie and Freddie, everyone was afraid there would be no mortgage money and, therefore, no homebuyers. So the FHA was told to take in the poor, tired, and broke potential homebuyers by insuring lenders who gave them money to buy homes.

What's interesting about the FHA is that they are there to insure mortgages for people who have a hard time getting mortgages. Which happens to be pretty cool now that everyone has a hard time getting a mortgage.

You only have to put down 3.5% when you get an FHA-insured mortgage. And you don't have to have a good credit score, either. It used to be you could get away with a 550 FICO score. (It's a little higher now.) That's what I call a score!

But, best of all, new legislation allowed the FHA to raise the amount of a loan they can insure from the previous level of $362,790 to a new total of $729,750.

I want my MTV and my McMansion!

Anyway, the FHA has been insuring lenders right and left. They have insured something like $1.1 trillion worth of mortgages. But, alas, now it seems that close to 10% of the mortgages that the FHA insures are seriously (90 days and more) delinquent.

Let's see, 10% of $1.1 trillion is a little more than $100 billion, right? So the FHA could potentially have to back lenders to the tune of how much, $100 billion? And how much do they have in their reserve tank? Oh, that would be about zero. They're supposed to have at least 2% in reserves, but they haven't had that in more than four years now.

Don't worry, the FHA can borrow as much as they want from the Treasury, so they're cool. Don't you feel better already?

But what is happening with delinquencies on new mortgages is not cool.

The FHA hitting the spotlight, in a dark way, brings into question once again what the heck the government is doing in the mortgage business in such a big way when they have no idea how to fix, sell, or dismantle Fannie and Freddie. And it could put another dagger into the back of housing... just as it tries to climb out of the hole it's been in.

This all stinks. And there's more. But this column is getting long, and you're getting scared.

You should be.

P.S. I promised I'd follow up with you soon on prepaid cards and the like... and I will. I haven't forgotten. It's just that this other stuff hitting the fan is more important right now.

Source :http://moneymorning.com/2012/11/16/with-the-fed-out-of-bullets-a-stock-market-crash-will-really-hurt/

Money Morning/The Money Map Report

©2012 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201, Email: customerservice@moneymorning.com

Disclaimer: Nothing published by Money Morning should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investent advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication, or after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Money Morning should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Money Morning Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife