Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Ukraine Preface, the Emerging Dynamics Of Petro-Yuan Standard - Jim_Willie_CB
2. Speculations Reversed - Gold Price Stealth Rally 2014 - Peter_Schiff
3.Bubbleberg News Drivel Masquerading as Financial Reporting - David A. Stockman
4.Nationwide UK House Prices 9.5% Inflation, Housing Market on Steroids, Help to Buy Anniversary - Nadeem_Walayat
5.How to Profit from Palladium Huge Price Surge… - Peter Krauth
6.UK Home Solar Panel Installations Good or Bad for House Buying and Selling? - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Global Gold Manipulation Update - MAP Wave Analysis - Marc_Horn
8.Ukraine Capital Controls and 200% Inflation But Still In Better Shape Than US! - Jeff_Berwick
9.The Rise of a Euro-Chino-Russian Superpower - Stephan Bogner
10.Across Europe Secession Movements Intensify - BATR
Last 72 Hrs
Glaring Q.E. Failure Spotted - Money Velocity Is Falling Rapidly - 16th Apr 14
High-Frequency Insider Trading - 16th Apr 14
Gold Prices 2014: Do What Goldman Does, Not What It Says - 16th Apr 14
These CEOs Will Make Investors Rich - 16th Apr 14
Climate Change, Central Banking And The Faustian Bargain - 16th Apr 14
Every Central Bank for Itself - 16th Apr 14
Social Security, U.S. Treasury Stealing Every Last Penny From Americans - 16th Apr 14
Ukraine Falling to Economic Warfare and Its Own Missteps - 16th Apr 14
Silver and Gold Miners Still Disappoint - 16th Apr 14
Silver, Gold, and What Could Go Wrong - 15th Apr 14
How I Intend to Survive the Meltdown of America - 15th Apr 14
France Wakes Up To The Multicultural Multi-Threat - 15th Apr 14
The Real Purpose Of QE - It’s Not Employment - 15th Apr 14
Peak Coal - 15th Apr 14
Flash Crash, Rigged Markets - What’s the Frequency Zenith? - 15th Apr 14
Forecasting U.S. GDP Growth: A Look at WSJ Economists’ Collective Crystal Ball - 15th Apr 14
Stock Market - Is Something Nasty About to Happen? - 15th Apr 14
How to Trade Your Way To Freedom - 15th Apr 14
Understanding (and Ignoring) the Media Bandwagon Against Gold - 15th Apr 14
When Stock Market Bubble Crashes, Take Refuge in Gold Stocks - 15th Apr 14
Bitcoin Price Strong Appreciation to Be Followed by Declines? - 14th Apr 14
Greece, Turkey, We're Shuffling The Cards on Our Europe Investing Play - 14th Apr 14
Silver Price Ultimate Rally: When Paper Assets Collapse - 14th Apr 14
Get Your Share of an Extra Trillion Euros Money Printing - 14th Apr 14
Fourth Reversals in The Gold and Silver Charts - 14th Apr 14
Stock Market Nearing Rally in a Downtrend - 14th Apr 14
London House Prices Bubble, Debt Slavery, Crimea 2.0 - Russia Ukraine Annexation - 14th Apr 14
Four Horsemen - Top Economists Explain the Source of Our Economic Crisis - Video - 13th Apr 14
Peak Oil And Global Warming – A Question Of Culture - 13th Apr 14
The Global Banking Game Is Rigged, and the FDIC Is Suing - 13th Apr 14
College Degree Earnings Propaganda - 13th Apr 14 - Andrew Syrios
Stock Market Potential Diagonal Triangle Pattern Forming - 12th Apr 14
Ukraine Crisis – Military Flash Drive Thinking - 12th Apr 14
Gold And Silver – 2014 Coud Be A Yawner; Be Prepared For A Surprise - 12th Apr 14
Gold Preparing to Launch as U.S. Dollar Drops to Key Support - 12th Apr 14
Manipulated Stocks Markets And The Empty Bag - 12th Apr 14
Stock Market - It’s Not Time to Panic… It’s Time to Buy - 12th Apr 14
Doctor Doom on the Fiat Money Empire Coming Financial Crisis - 12th Apr 14
Sheffield, Rotherham Roma Benefits Plague, Ch5 Documentary Gypsies on Benefits & Proud - 11th Apr 14
This Bitcoin Price Rally Might Be a Fake One - 11th Apr 14
GDX Gold Stocks Benchmark - 11th Apr 14
Silver Price Finally Outperforms – How Bullish Is That? - 11th Apr 14
Limits to Employment Participation, and Societal Change - 11th Apr 14
US Moves To Restrict Travelers Taking International Flights - 11th Apr 14
Bill Gross to El-Erian: 'Come on, Mohamed, Tell Us Why' You Resigned PIMCO - 11th Apr 14
British Pound GBP/USD - Double Top or Further Rally? - 11th Apr 14
Don't Miss the Boat on Big Biotech Catalysts: Keith Markey - 11th Apr 14
Russia Invaded Crimea and These US Energy Companies Made a Killing - 11th Apr 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How Spanish Debt Default Would Trigger an Epic Financial Crash

Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis Nov 22, 2012 - 08:59 AM GMT

By: Graham_Summers

Interest-Rates

Over the last week I’ve introduced the concept of collateral: the little known basis for the entire financial system. We’ve also addressed why any EU sovereign default would bring about an epic meltdown as EU bonds, particularly those of Spain and Italy are the collateral underlying hundreds of trillions of Euros worth of trades for EU banks.

Again, the most important issue for the financial system is the search for high quality collateral.


Indeed, it is the search for high grade collateral that has caused such periodic spikes in Treasuries, German Bunds, French sovereign bonds, and Japanese bonds (all of these have yielded 0% or even negative yields in the last five years). Big banks are moving away from PIIGS bonds into safer havens.

This is also why the Fed isn’t touching Treasuries with QE3 and why it won’t touch short-term Treasuries with Operation Twist 2 (this program sees the Fed selling short-term Treasuries to buy long-term Treasuries): the Fed wants to keep as much good quality collateral in the system as possible (long-term Treasuries are problematic because institutions know it’s highly likely the US will default within the next 30 years).

However, even this move is problematic because much of the Treasury market is locked up with governments both foreign and domestic.

Total US Sovereign Debt $16 trillion
Foreign Nation holdings $5 trillion
Intergovernmental holdings $4.8 trillion
US Federal Reserve $1.5 trillion
Remaining $4.7 trillion

Again, this is why clearinghouses (which oversee the derivatives markets) are now allowing Gold as collateral: they know that eventually sovereign bonds will be worth less or even worthless. And they want access to their clients’ Gold for when this happens.

With that in mind, the countries that will ultimately be considered safe havens when the BIG collapse starts are those with the largest Gold reserves.

Country Gold Holdings % of Foreign Reserves in Gold
The US 8,133 tonnes 75.1%
Germany 3,395 tonnes 71.9%
Italy 2,451 tonnes 71.3%
France 2,435 tonnes 71.6%
China 1,054 tonnes 1.6%
Switzerland 1,040 tonnes 14.2%
Russia 918 tonnes 9.2%
Japan 765 tonnes 3.1%
Netherlands 612 tonnes 60.2%
India 557 tonnes 9.8%

I’m not going to get into the issue of whether this Gold exists still (many commentators claim that Central Banks have in fact sold much of this) as I have no way of proving it. The key issue is that the financial elite are now trying to get their hands on Gold as collateral because they realize that sovereign paper based collateral from the EU will soon be worth much less or even worthless.

It is no coincidence that Germany floated the idea of accepting other EU nation’s Gold in exchanged for bailouts back in May 2012 when Europe teetered on the brink of collapse:

Europe’s debtors must pawn their gold for Eurobond Redemption

Southern Europe’s debtor states must pledge their gold reserves and national treasure as collateral under a €2.3 trillion stabilisation plan gaining momentum in Germany.

The German scheme — known as the European Redemption Pact — offers a form of “Eurobonds Lite” that can be squared with the German constitution and breaks the political logjam. It is a highly creative way out of the debt crisis, but is not a soft option for Italy, Spain, Portugal, and other states in trouble.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9298180/Europes-debtors-must-pawn-their-gold-for-Eurobond-Redemption.html

It’s also not coincidental that Germany is performing an audit of its Gold holdings today, either.

Bundesbank Says NY Fed to Help Meet Gold Audit Request

The Bundesbank said the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will help it meet auditing requirements related to its gold reserves that were demanded by Germany’s Audit Court.

“We have been in discussions with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York about the Bundesbank’s holdings of gold,” the Bundesbank said yesterday in a letter to the German parliament’s budget committee. “The discussions have been fruitful and the Federal Reserve has expressed a commitment to work with the Bundesbank to explore ways to address the audit observations, consistent with its own security and control processes and logistical constraints.”

The agreement is part of a compromise between the German central bank and the Audit Court, which has called on the Bundesbank to take stock of its gold holdings outside Germany, saying it has never verified their existence.

The Bundesbank distributed the letter to reporters after board member Carl-Ludwig Thiele and the Audit Court’s head Dieter Engels testified to budget committee lawmakers in the lower house of parliament in Berlin.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-25/new-york-fed-to-help-bundesbank-meet-gold-audit-requirements.html

I realize that the last few essays have been pretty dense. So I’ll summate everything here:

1)   The #1 issue for the financial world is too little quality collateral backing too many trades.

2)   The search for good collateral has lead investors to seek high grade sovereign bonds (Treasuries, German bunds, French bonds, Japanese bonds) as a safe haven between 2008-the present.

3)   The folks who monitor the derivatives market (the large clearing houses) realize that sovereign bonds are not going to be a safe haven for much longer and so are looking at Gold as a new form of collateral for trades (this has NEVER been the case before).

4)   Germany and other nations will be increasingly looking to audit and accumulate their Gold holdings.

Keep all of this in mind at all times going forward. This is the BIG picture for the financial world.

This is why I’ve been warning that 2008 was just the warm-up. What is coming will be far far worse: the collateral crunch that will ensue when Spain or Italy defaults (they have €1.78 trillion and €1.87 trillion in external debt respectively) will be absolutely massive. At a minimum it will be multiples of times larger than what followed Lehman’s bankruptcy.

To learn more about Private Wealth Advisory and how it can help you navigate the markets successfully…

Click Here Now!!!

Graham Sumers

Chief Market Strategist

Good Investing!

http://gainspainscapital.com

PS. If you’re getting worried about the future of the stock market and have yet to take steps to prepare for the Second Round of the Financial Crisis… I highly suggest you download my FREE Special Report specifying exactly how to prepare for what’s to come.

I call it The Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival Kit. And its 17 pages contain a wealth of information about portfolio protection, which investments to own and how to take out Catastrophe Insurance on the stock market (this “insurance” paid out triple digit gains in the Autumn of 2008).

Again, this is all 100% FREE. To pick up your copy today, got to http://www.gainspainscapital.com and click on FREE REPORTS.

Graham also writes Private Wealth Advisory, a monthly investment advisory focusing on the most lucrative investment opportunities the financial markets have to offer. Graham understands the big picture from both a macro-economic and capital in/outflow perspective. He translates his understanding into finding trends and undervalued investment opportunities months before the markets catch on: the Private Wealth Advisory portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 three of the last five years, including a 7% return in 2008 vs. a 37% loss for the S&P 500.

Previously, Graham worked as a Senior Financial Analyst covering global markets for several investment firms in the Mid-Atlantic region. He’s lived and performed research in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the United States.

© 2012 Copyright Graham Summers - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Graham Summers Archive

© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014