Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 Implications for Stock Market - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Odds of Winning Walkers Crisps Spell & Go olidays K, C and D Letters - Sami_Walayat
3.Massive Silver Price Rally During The Coming US Dollar Collapse - Hubert_Moolman
4.Pope Francis Calls For Worldwide Communist Government - Jeff_Berwick
5.EU Referendum Opinion Polls Neck and Neck Despite Operation Fear, Support BrExit Campaign - Nadeem_Walayat
6.David Morgan: There Will Soon Be a Run to Gold Like You've Never Seen Before - Mike Gleason
7.British Pound Soars on BrExit Hopes Despite Remain Establishment Fear Mongering - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Gold Price Possible $200 Rally - Bob_Loukas
9.The Federal Reserve is Not Going To Raise Interest Rates and Destroy Gold - Michael_Swanson
10.Silver Miners’ Q1’ 2016 Fundamentals - Zeal_LLC
Free Silver
Last 7 days
The Numbers Add Up to Vindication for a Cautious Gold Bull. . . - 1st June 16
Will the Fed be Blind Sided by Stagflation? - 31st May 16
Gold Price Not Ready for a Final Intermediate Cycle Low - 31st May 16
EU Referendum - British People vs Establishment Elite, Vote LEAVE an Act of Defiance! - 31st May 16
Gold - Mr. Cool Cucumber is starting to Sweat - 31st May 16
AMAT Chirps, b2b Ramps, Yellen Hawks and Gold’s Fundamentals Erode - 31st May 16
Stock Market Re-Testing Overhead Resistance - 30th May 16
David Cameron Questioned on Out of Control Immigration at TEN TIMES Conservative Election Pledges - 30th May 16
Bitcoin Price Skyrockets And Is Now Up More Than 100% This Jubilee Year - 30th May 16
This Is Not The America My Parents Immigrated To In 1957 - 30th May 16
“Debt, Not The Economy, Reaches Escape Velocity” With Graham Mehl - 29th May 16
EU Referendum, Black Vote LEAVE or REMAIN? Which is Worse for Racism for Britain's Ethnic Minorities? - 29th May 16
Billionaire Gross: Jubilee Debt Relief as Prelude to New Global Economic Order - 29th May 16
Wargaming North Korea - Assessing the Threat - 29th May 16
EU REMAIN Population Forecasts - England 4.1 million Explosion, London Migration Crisis - 28th May 16
A Guide to the Trump-Sanders Debate - 28th May 16
Gold And Silver – At Significant Support. New “Story” Developing - 28th May 16
The Next Systemic Lehman Event - New Scheiss Dollar & Gold Trade Standard - 27th May 16
Energy and Debt Crisis Point to Much Higher Silver, Metals Prices - 27th May 16
Gold Junior Stocks Q1 2016 Fundamentals - 27th May 16
These Crisis Markets Are Primed to Deliver Big Gains, Platinum Never Cheaper! - 27th May 16
Operation Black Vote BrExit Warning for the Wrong EU Referendum - 27th May 16
UK Immigration Crisis Hits New Extreme, Catastrophic ONS Migration Stats Ahead of EU Referendum - 27th May 16
Many of the World’s Best Investors Made Their Fortunes This Way…And You Can Too - 27th May 16
The Ugly Truth About Stock Market Manipulation and Gold Prices - 27th May 16
Gold Price Looking Vulnerable While Gold Stocks Correct - 27th May 16
The 5 Fatal Flaws of Trading - 27th May 16
The Next Big Crash Of The U.S. Economy Is Coming, Here’s Why - 27th May 16
A New Golden Bull or Has the Market Gone Too Far Too Fast? - 27th May 16
It Feels Like Inflation - 26th May 16
Negative Interest Rates Set to Propel the Dow Jones to the Stratosphere? - 26th May 16
S&P Significant Low has Occurred – Not Likely! - 26th May 16
Statistics for Funeral Planning in UK Grave - 26th May 16
Think Beyond Oil And Gold: Interview With Mike 'Mish' Shedlock - 26th May 16
Hard Times and False Mainstream Media Narratives - 26th May 16
Will The Swiss Guarantee 75,000 CHF For Every Family? - 26th May 16
Is There A Stocks Bear Market in Progress? - 26th May 16
Billionaires Are Wrong on Gold - 26th May 16
How NOT to Invest in the Gold Market - 26th May 16
The Black Swan Spotter...Which Saw the Oil-Crash coming; now says the “Invisible Hand” will push Brent to $85 by Christmas - 26th May 16
U.S. Household Debt Still Below 2008 Peak - 25th May 16
Brexit: Wrong Discussion, Wrong People, Wrong Arguments - 25th May 16
SPX is at Strong Resistance - 25th May 16
US Dollar, Back From the Grave? - 25th May 16
Gold : Just the Facts Ma’am - 25th May 16
The Worst Urban Crisis in History Could be Upon Us - 24th May 16
Death Crosses Across The Board Are IRREFUTABLE Stock Market Sell Signals - 24th May 16
Bitcoin Trading Alert: Bitcoin Price Stays below $450 - 24th May 16
Stock Market Crash Death Cross Doom Prevails - 23rd May 16
Did AMAT Chirp? Implications for the Economy and Gold - 23rd May 16
Stocks Extended Their Rebound On Friday - Will They Continue Higher? - 23rd May 16
UK Treasury Propaganda Warns of 3.6% Brexit Recession, the £64 Billion Question? - 23rd May 16
Stock Market Support Breached, But Not Broken! - 23rd May 16
George Osborne Warns of 18% Cheaper House Prices - BrExit for First Time Buyers - 22nd May 16
Gold Bull-Phase I Continues to Confound (The Trek to “Known Values”) - 22nd May 16 r
Avoiding a War in Space - 22nd May 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

Can Gold Keep Its Luster in 2013?

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Dec 07, 2012 - 03:01 AM GMT

By: Clif_Droke

Commodities

Gold took a double hit recently based partly on a news item from the rumor mill that a large fund in Asia was selling to "run the stops."

"The sale looks like a carefully crafted trade prepped and successfully executed by a well known $14b US fund," according to one source. "Prior to the sale there had been an unusually large purchase of gold 'puts' - a leveraged options play that profits from a downward spike in prices. There had also been some early selling on the overnight electronic platform presumably to test the waters before the big guns fired a devastating salvo."


The short sell at the opening bell last week had the desired effect on prices, as the $1,730 level was breached where it triggered stops. The reason behind the trade is a matter of speculation with no clear motive. One source believed the selling was a bet that the U.S. "fiscal cliff" will be averted and that both sides of the Congressional isle will be able to reconcile their differences long enough to meet the upcoming deadline for the expiration of the Bush tax cuts.

This brings up another question concerning the 2013 outlook for gold. Pundits believe that if the fiscal cliff is averted and the U.S. economy picks up steam in the coming months that it could put downside pressure on the yellow metal.

Many analysts have also called into question whether the 17% year-over-year compounded rise in the gold price over the past decade can be sustained going forward. Perhaps not, but as Sharps Pixley points out, "Some bulls now seem to see single digit growth as a bear market." The point here being that even a single digit gold price increase in 2013 would still be preferable to an outright bear market and is still an attainable gold.

Analysts' median forecast for the 2013 year-end gold price has risen from $1,832 as of September to $1,850 currently. Commerzbank expects gold to reach $2,000/oz next year, citing supporting factors such as additional central banks buying due to ultra-loose monetary policy or addition to reserves, more active Indian buyers, continued low real interest rates, a rebound in Chinese growth rate. Deficits in the gold supply are also expected to continue into 2013.

From a technical perspective, the 10-month gold price oscillator showed some improvement in early December from last month, falling back from the "overbought" red zone shown in the following graph to a neutral reading in the yellow zone. That should help gold to stabilize a bit in the coming days and weeks as the metal tries to establish support and chew its way through the supply overhang created by recent selling.

10-Month Gold Oscillator

It should be noted that despite the recent sell-off, gold is currently showing a net gain for the year-to-date (as of Dec. 4). The iShares Gold Trust (IAU), our proxy for gold, is above its opening level from the start of 2012 as you can see here. But it's also below its 30-day moving average, and this important trend line also has a downward slope. It's also below the 60-day MA. This signifies that the interim trend is still sketchy and the buyers haven't regained control of the market yet. The best trading signals - the ones that signal a sustainable rally has begun - are when the gold ETF is above the rising 30-day and 60-day moving averages.

IAU Daily Chart

U.S. Economy

A few weeks ago our New Economy Index (NEI) was looking dicey. I even speculated that by December we might even see a "sell" signal in the NEI - the first one since 2010. But as the latest NEI update shows the U.S. retail economy is still managing to maintain its intermediate-term rising trend and shows no sign of breaking down.

New Economy Index

As you can see, the index remains above its rising 12-week and 20-week moving averages as well as staying above the interim uptrend line (see below). That means that the outlook for U.S. retail sales in the near term future is still positive, and it practically guarantees a fairly strong holiday sales trend for December. So it looks like Santa is coming to the rescue this year once again for retailers.

2014: America's Date With Destiny

Take a journey into the future with me as we discover what the future may unfold in the fateful period leading up to - and following - the 120-year cycle bottom in late 2014.

Picking up where I left off in my previous work, The Stock Market Cycles, I expand on the Kress cycle narrative and explain how the 120-year Mega cycle influences the market, the economy and other aspects of American life and culture. My latest book, 2014: America's Date With Destiny, examines the most vital issues facing America and the global economy in the 2-3 years ahead.

The new book explains that the credit crisis of 2008 was merely the prelude in an intensifying global credit storm. If the basis for my prediction continue true to form - namely the long-term Kress cycles - the worst part of the crisis lies ahead in the years 2013-2014. The book is now available for sale at: http://www.clifdroke.com/books/destiny.html

Order today to receive your autographed copy and a FREE 1-month trial subscription to the Gold & Silver Stock Report newsletter. Published twice each week, the newsletter uses the method described in this book for making profitable trades among the actively traded gold mining shares.

By Clif Droke
www.clifdroke.com

Clif Droke is the editor of the daily Gold & Silver Stock Report. Published daily since 2002, the report provides forecasts and analysis of the leading gold, silver, uranium and energy stocks from a short-term technical standpoint. He is also the author of numerous books, including 'How to Read Chart Patterns for Greater Profits.' For more information visit www.clifdroke.com

Clif Droke Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife