Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.UK House Prices BrExit Crash NOT Likely Despite London Property Market Weakness - Nadeem_Walayat
2.BrExit Morning - New Dawn for Britain, Independence Day! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.LEAVE Wins EU Referendum - Sterling and FTSE Hit Hard, Pollsters, Bookies and Markets All WRONG! - Nadeem_Walayat
4.BrExit Implications for UK Stock Market, Sterling GBP, House Prices and UK Politics... - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Trading BrExit - Stocks, Bonds, Sterling, Opinion Polls, Bookmaker Odds and My Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
6.FTSE and Sterling Brexit Trading, Deconstruction of the EU Referendum Result - Nadeem_Walayat
7.UK Interest Rate Cut to 0.25% Imminent and More QE Money Printing - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Trading BrExit - British Pound Plunges, FTSE Stock Futures Slump on LEAVE Shock Referendum Win - Nadeem_Walayat
9.The Stock Market is Reading it Wrong! - Chris_Vermeulen
10.Breakouts Galore in Gold and Silver - Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Free Silver
Last 7 days
Stock Market Insiders Are Secretly Selling, Cycle Top Next Month - 28th July 16
FOMC Interest Rates and Their Impact on the US Economy - 28th July 16
The State Of The Economy - 28th July 16
Elliott Wave Crash Course - 3 Ways the Elliott Wave Principle Enhances Your Trading - 28th July 16
Japan's "Helicopter Money" Play: Road to Hyperinflation or Cure Debt Deflation? - 27th July 16
Monetary Zika - The Insidious Nature of Credit Expansion - 27th July 16
Gold and Pork Bellies - 27th July 16
Silver Is Insurance Against The Worst Part Of This Depression - 27th July 16
Don’t Buy The SPX Hope Stock Market Rally! - 27th July 16
Bitcoin $650 Still in Play - 26th July 16
Deutche Bank Stock Price Crash - The EU Has Problems Far Beyond the Brexit - 26th July 16
The Forex Markets Are Getting Exciting! - 26th July 16
Underpriced Silver Is the “Rip Van Winkle” Metal - 25th July 16
Declines in Multiple Market Indexes - 25th July 16
Retailers Are Doomed as Most Americans Are Too Poor to Shop - 25th July 16
Here’s One Currency That Could Go to Zero - 25th July 16
Stock Market Top is Expanding - 25th July 16
Silver Manipulation – Because They Needed the Eggs - 25th July 16
Silver Market COT Stuns: What's Going On Here? - 24th July 16
Gold Demand Remains Stable During Sector Weakness - 24th July 16
Sernova, Diabetes and Haemophilia - 24th July 16
Russia: Tensions, Turmoil, and Western Hubris - 24th July 16
Soybean Commodity Price to Soar Again - 23rd July 16
SPX Stock Market Uptrend Continues - 23rd July 16
Gold And Silver – Debt Addiction Will Carry Precious Metals Higher, Guaranteed - 23rd July 16
Pokemon Go - How to Play, First Use, Balls, Stops, Catching Pokemon's... Great Excercise! - 23rd July 16
7 Signs That the Gold Market Remains Resilient - 23rd July 16
Basic Income in The Time of Crisis - 23rd July 16
Silver Bull Faces Correction - 22nd July 16
The Serious Warning No One’s Talking About - 22nd July 16
Stock Market Insight from Greed, Volatility, and Put/Call Ratio - 22nd July 16
What Will Happen To the Stock Market When Interest Rates Rise? - 22nd July 16
How to Escape the World’s Biggest Ponzi Scheme - 22nd July 16
Addicted to Debt - We Can’t Borrow from the Future Anymore - 21st July 16
Not Everything Is Bullish for Gold - 21st July 16
Don’t Get Sucked Back Into the Stock Market - The Big Picture Hasn’t Changed - 21st July 16
Silver – Caught Inside - 21st July 16
Forex: "The Markets Are Getting Exciting!" - 20th July 16
China Economic Troubles - Is Kyle Bass Finally Getting His Revenge? - 20th July 16
Why Lithium Will See Another Price Spike This Fall - 20th July 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The Power of the Wave Principle

Good Jobs...Bad Jobs.... Stock Market Still Lateral.....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Dec 08, 2012 - 07:21 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

The Government came out with their bag of tricks this morning pre-market, telling us that jobs increased by 146,000, which was much better than expected. What they failed to tell you was that the jobs market lost 122,000 people when their claims ran out with the Government--the new math, apparently. So in the end the report was actually worse than expected, but they want you to believe that things are actually improving.


I guess they think we're all dopes. It's the same way they choose to look at inflation. They count everything except food and energy. Seriously? Outside of health care costs going through the roof, what else is there really, other than the inflation caused by our most used daily products of food and energy. We seem to accept all this garbage, but in the end, the number today was not nearly as good as that which was reported, and for once the market didn't buy it at all.

The market rose early on with those futures blasting up initially. The S&P 500 was up over a ten handle. Nice action. It opened with a four handle and ultimately went red as the day wore on. It went back and forth from red to green, but in the end, the report wasn't accepted as many thought it might be. Fool me once...! The market simply went back to its usual behavior we've been seeing for far too long now. Whipsaw is the name of the game, which is what I've been warning you about for some time now. There's nothing out there to change this behavior as we tinker on the edge of recession, until we get a resolution from the fiscal cliff. It's really that simple. Today was the same old. You start one way and end another with many head fakes in between. The new normal for now.

Playing this type of market is what has everyone so baffled and unhappy. There really isn't a strong strategy to be honest. The market is whipped about due to the uncertainty it's facing, and due to the words spoken from both political sides on an almost daily basis. It's almost impossible to play this way. Unless you choose to wait for oversold to very oversold conditions, or on the other hand, overbought to very overbought conditions, there really isn't much there.

The problem is waiting and getting those oversold and overbought conditions to take place. They don't that frequently on the daily charts. Far more often on the short-term sixty-minute charts, but unless you're a day trader, it's imperative you wait for the daily set-ups. It ultimately means you're likely doing a lot less trading than you'd like. It's frustrating and disappointing. I get it but, if you don't obey the rules laid out in front of you here, you're likely to have a lot of bad experiences. Less is sadly more for now with there being no sign of that changing the rest of this month as the two political sides play hard ball with each other, and thus, with all of us. Adjust accordingly.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is in a longer-term down trend that's been completely confirmed technically when it failed on its back test of the 50-day exponential moving average with a black candle. It has been down hard ever since. It has set up shop with clear support and resistance levels. 555.00 is now the first area of tough resistance followed by the wall at 569.00, or the recent gap down. Support is at 518.00 followed by 505.00. Below 505.00 is 460.00. AAPL is the leader and needs the right type of news to break this continuing down trend it has been in for a long time now. If AAPL can find a bottom then the market is likely to find it as well. Remember that AAPL is very heavily weighted and if it's struggling so will the necessary market leader, the Nasdaq markets are healthiest when froth or the Nasdaq leads.

Look folks, in the end it's about the resolution or lack of one regarding the fiscal cliff. The market is anxious, and that's why you get the whipsaw. The reason it doesn't tank to this point is because there's really nowhere else to put your dollars. Interest rates are too low. With this in mind, the market players are looking for safety in lower beta, lower P/E stocks found in the Dow and S&P 500. Always exceptions to that rule, but the overall behavior of the indexes shows this to be the case. The Nasdaq is not that desirable to the masses for now. It will become desirable once again when the fiscal cliff has been resolved. This tells you that cash is basically best with only very tiny exposure from time to time. Nothing wrong with being completely cash if need be.

Be peaceful and wait for resolution. The market should become more directional at that time.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2012 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife