Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Stock Market in DANGER of Strangling the Bears to Death - Nadeem_Walayat
2. Germany Pivoting East, Exit US Dollar, Enter Gold Standard - Jim_Willie_CB
3.Flight MH17 – Kiev Flash Mob's Last False Flag? - Andrew_McKillop
4.Stock Market Crash Nightmare! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold - The Million DOLLAR Question... - Rambus_Chartology
6.Gold And Silver – BRICS And Germany Will Pave The Way - Michael_Noonan
7.The Jewish Selfish Gene, People Chosen by God, Everyone Else is Goyim to Kill - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Israeli Promised Land Dream - The Criminal Roadmap Towards “Greater Israel”? - Felicity Arbuthnot
9.Which Way is Inflation Blowing? Watch Commodities - Gary_Dorsch
10.U.S. Economy Quarterly Review and Implications for 2014-2015 - Lacy Hunt
Last 5 days
Gaza Death Cloud Hangs Over Sheffield Eid Festival 2014 at Millhouses Park - 1st Aug 14
Israels Final Solution of Turning Gaza Concentration Camp into a Grave Yard - 31st July 14
US Failure: Unintended Consequence - 31st July 14
Stock Market Breakdown! - 31st July 14
Echoes Of The Great War – Only An Echo In The Elite Mind - 31st July 14
This is Bad News for U.S. Economy and Stock Markets - 31st July 14
The Important Impact of This “Secret” Gold Agreement - 31st July 14
The Something For Nothing Society Death Spiral - 31st July 14
The Social Memory Dump, Shredding Society - 31st July 14
How Safe Are Unallocated Gold Bullion Accounts? - 31st July 14
USDJPY Big Bear Market - 31st July 14
No More School in Gaza Because All the Children are Dead Chant Israel's Jewish Fundementalists - 31st July 14
The Iron Dome Inside The Heads of Israel’s Leaders - 31st July 14
You Know a Politician or Talking Head is Clueless When….. - 31st July 14
Don't Get Married to Your Gold Stocks—It's a Performance-Based Relationship - 31st July 14
Stock Market Parabolic Collapse - Sowing the Seeds of the Next Depression - 30th July 14
How to Profit from the Russia Ukraine Conflict - 30th July 14
Greenspan: U.S. Economy Running Out of Buffer; Stock Market to See Significant Correction - 30th July 14
Rogue States And Loony Tunes - 30th July 14
Anne Elk’s Theory On Brontosauruses - 30th July 14
Our Totalitarian Future - Totalitarianism NOW! - 30th July 14
Stocks Bear Market Formation Revealed - 30th July 14
We Just Found “The Future” - 30th July 14
What the “Steak Bandit” Says About Asset Values - 30th July 14
Designer War By Default - Seven Types of Elite Madness - 30th July 14
Death of the U.S. Dollar? Gold an Inflation Hedge? Really? - 29th July 14
We’re Ready to Profit in the Coming Gold Price Correction—Are You? - 29th July 14
Their Economy Will Collapse, Including Ours - 29th July 14
Silver Prices – Megaphone Patterns - 29th July 14
Real U.S. Interest Rates - Fed Exit a Blue Pill? - 29th July 14
Why Israel Should NOT Exist, Just Like Any Other Rogue State - 29th July 14
Gold Still Looking Good - 29th July 14
Silver Price Set To Star - 29th July 14
Our Population Growth Totalitarian Future - 29th July 14
World War 1 Cause and Consequences - The Planned Destruction of Christendom - 29th July 14
Will Crashing Commodities Crash the Stock Market? - 29th July 14
Ukraine MH17 - Washington Thinks Americans Are Fools - 29th July 14
Stock Market Bubble Warning - 29th July 14
Gold Price and U.S. Dollar’s July Rally - 28th July 14
Second Quarter Corporate Earnings: Marching Toward a Strong Economic Recovery - 28th July 14
Time to Put a New Economic Tool in the Box - 28th July 14
Mossad in Gaza, Ukraine and the Cult Of The All-Powerful Elite - 28th July 14
Elliott Wave Gold Price Projection Since 1970 - 28th July 14
Investors Remain Uncertain As Stock Fluctuate Near Long-Term Highs - Will The Uptrend Extend? - 28th July 14
The Mass Psychology Of Decline - 28th July 14
Will the US Destroy the World? - Don’t Expect to Live Much Longer - 28th July 14
GDM and GDXJ Gold Stocks In-depth Look - 28th July 14
Stock Market One FINAL High? - 28th July 14
What It Means - Paradigm Collapse And Culture Crisis - 27th July 14
Wall Street Shadow Banking: You Can’t Taper a Ponzi Scheme: “Time to Reboot” - 27th July 14
6 Tips for Picking Winning Gold Mining Stocks - 27th July 14
Israel's War on Children, Exterminating the Palestinians Future - 27th July 14
Guilt By Insinuation - How American Propaganda Works - 26th July 14
Surprise Nuclear Attack On Russia To Liberate Ukraine - 26th July 14
Use "Magic" Of Gold/Silver Ratio To Greatly Increase Your Physical Holdings - 26th July 14
Derivatives Market Species Origins - Abuse, Props and Risks - 26th July 14
Stock Market Manipulation and Technical Analysis - 26th July 14
China’s Stock Market Finally Looks Like A Buy - 26th July 14
Ed Milliband Fears Israel Jewish Fundamentalist Gaza War Massacres Backlash - 26th July 14
The Big Energy = Power Battle Is Coming - 25th July 14
USrael - Zionists in Control of America's Goyim Brainwashed Second Coming Slaves - 25th July 14
More Weakness Ahead for Gold Miners - 25th July 14
Gold Price Strong Season Starts - 25th July 14
Geopolitics and Markets Red Flags Raised by the Fed and the BIS on Risk-taking - 25th July 14
Gold Lockdown Until Options Expiry - New Singapore Gold Contract Threatens Price Manipulation - 25th July 14
The Bond Markets, Black Swans, and the Tiny Spirit of Santo - 25th July 14
No Road Map For Avoiding The Future - 25th July 14
Israeli War Machine Concentrating Women and Children into UN Schools Before Killing Them - C4News - 25th July 14
Israeli Government Paying Jewish Fundamentalist Students to Post Facebook Gaza War Propaganda - 25th July 14
Why the Stock Market Is Heading For A Fall - This Time Is Not Different - 25th July 14
An Economic “Nuclear Strike” on Moscow, A “War of Degrees” - 25th July 14
BBC, Western Media Working for Israeli Agenda of Perpetual War to Steal Arab Land - 25th July 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The Biggest lie in Stock Market History Revealed

Crude Oil Price Forecast 2013

Commodities / Crude Oil Dec 12, 2012 - 06:05 AM GMT

By: Money_Morning

Commodities

Dr. Kent Moors writes: One of the most important topics we discussed in Moscow last week were the various forecasts of where crude oil prices are likely to be in 2013.

These 2013 oil price forecasts were all over the place, owing to the high level of uncertainty on a number of basic elements.


According to the Russian Ministry of Energy, or Minenergo, the "official" government estimate has oil prices low - at about $80 a barrel in 2013.

However, there were other estimates floating about. The Ministry of Finance (MinFin) set up what can only be described as a recession approach. That figure puts oil prices at $62-$65 a barrel.

Then there was the Ministry of Economic Development (MED). MED considered both domestic and external trade considerations. The estimate coming from this ministry was lower than that of Minenergo, but at $75 a barrel was higher than that of MinFin.

Against this backdrop of competing forecasts made by battling Russian ministries, estimates from the outside including my own are much, much different-as in decidedly to the upside.

Granted, all of the non-Russian suggestions cite the three unknowns limiting the cost of crude elsewhere: the fiscal cliff, the Eurozone debt crisis, and the expected levels of productivity and demand coming from China.

Nonetheless, a strong consensus did emerge from North American and European experts during our sidebar conversations in Moscow.

The overwhelming view was that oil prices will be moving higher next year, although the continuing volatility will guarantee that this is hardly going to be a straight line advance.

Even still, there will be a number of factors that will push Brent and WTI prices as much as 20% higher next year-particularly in the first quarter.

Here's why oil will still remain a "must-have" investment next year.

2013 Oil Price Forecast: Oil Prices Are Set to Rise
First, attendant to the three concerns mentioned above, we all noted the following. There is little likelihood shared by anybody I spoke to that the "bickering children" inside the Beltway would actually allow the U.S. market to fall off the fiscal cliff.
There will be a more or less cosmetic remedy arrived at setting the stage for more substantive decisions later. Much of this is not going to be received well by the stock market, but that will work itself out in short order.

On the European scene, I must admit that the optimism witnessed in Frankfurt and Warsaw a few weeks ago was more pronounced in Moscow among the Europeans there.

Nobody believes the softness in the continental economy will be disappearing anytime soon. But the stark fears of a collapse in the Eurozone, so much a staple of the talking heads repertory on TV throughout much of 2012, is simply absent as we move to the end of the year.

As for China, we all agreed that this has been much ado about nothing.

The Chinese economy has "cooled" to an annual rise in excess of 7%. The demand level is still there and so is the enticement level expected from a quickly expanding Chinese middle class.

These three elements, therefore, are converging in a way more supportive of higher crude prices. All of them are on the demand side of the equation. As each improves, so also will the projections for oil and oil product volume.

Supply Fundamentals Will Drive Oil Prices Upward
On the supply side, we continue to witness rising costs in both conventional and unconventional crude production.

This development largely results from the smaller fields, inferior quality crude, and accelerating infrastructure expenses associated with drilling. Combined with these are the ever-present geopolitical problems in the Persian Gulf, Syria and North Africa.

These considerations translate into higher crude prices in the first half of 2013.

At this point, we had some divergence on what those prices would be. At a minimum, all agreed that Brent would be at no less than $115, and WTI no less than $95 by the end of the first quarter.

My view, on the other hand, puts both a bit higher - Brent at $127 and WTI at $105 by March 31. Most of this should be fueled by rising indicators of economic recovery (even sluggish signals) on both sides of the Atlantic.

Should the Iranian situation deteriorate, or the standoff between Iraqi central forces and Kurdish provisional militia (the peshmerga) worsen, the situation in the Persian Gulf alone would add a risk premium to both benchmarks as well.

All of these factors will continue to make oil one of the top profit plays next year.

Source :http://moneymorning.com/2012/12/12/2013-oil-price-forecast-why-oil-remains-a-must-have-profit-play-next-year/

Money Morning/The Money Map Report

©2012 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201, Email: customerservice@moneymorning.com

Disclaimer: Nothing published by Money Morning should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investent advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication, or after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Money Morning should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Money Morning Archive

© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014