Category: Crude Oil
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, April 01, 2023
Crude Oil: Will "Banking Crisis Send Prices Even Lower"? Ha! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
SVB failed in March. Oil was destined to fall as early as February – here’s why;
The failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank have prompted a lot of discussion about the potential of a domino effect. People are wondering "what's next?"
The financial press is linking just about every downward price move in just about every financial market to the woes in the banking sector.
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Sunday, February 26, 2023
Oil Price Rises Despite Larger US Crude Stocks. Russian Production Worries / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
The two global crude benchmarks are still enjoying momentum that began on Thursday – despite larger-than-expected US crude inventories – following reports from the financial press that Russia will cut oil exports from its western ports by 25% per month in March compared to February in response to Western sanctions.These claims, however, have not yet been confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Energy.
The western ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk export around 2.5 million barrels of crude a day. Therefore, a 25% reduction would imply a reduction in exports of 625,000 barrels per day, or about 0.6% of the world oil supply.
This contraction would thus exceed that announced by the Russian Deputy Prime Minister in charge of Energy, Alexander Novak, earlier in February by 500,000 barrels per day.
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Thursday, January 19, 2023
Why Oil Prices Fell in the Face of "Supply Shock" / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
"Crude should be at the forefront of a..."Looking back on 2022, one of the biggest fears about oil was that prices would skyrocket even more than they did due to a disruption in supply from Russia.
Of course, Russia has been a major world supplier of oil, but after Russia invaded Ukraine, many global financial institutions refused to back transactions involving Russian oil.
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Thursday, December 08, 2022
Crude Oil Drops to a New Year Low – What’s Happening? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Paul_Rejczak
Here’s how to make sense of the different figures reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Macroeconomics
From a macroeconomic point of view, the US dollar index (DXY or USDX) has maintained its downward trend within its recent regression channel, probably still eyeing the next quarterly S2 pivot just located at the $100 mark.
Tuesday, November 29, 2022
Crude Oil: Why You Should Look Beyond Supply / Demand / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
The primary regulator of the rises and falls in oil's prices is market psychology
As I write on the morning of Friday, Nov. 18, crude oil is on track for its second weekly decline.
The financial media usually finds "reasons" for a market's price action that are rooted in "market fundamentals," and this decline in oil's price was no exception.
On Thurs., Nov. 17, a CNBC headline noted:
Oil falls on easing geopolitical tension, China demand outlook
The gist of the story was that a rising number of COVID-19 cases in China would contribute to a lower demand for crude oil in the world's second largest economy; hence, the falling prices.
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Thursday, November 24, 2022
Crude Oil Price Predicis the US Economy and Stocks / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Rambus_Chartology
Oil, like just about everything else that is related to the markets, bottomed around the March / April 2020 pandemic crash low. The oil complex had been one of the worst performing areas even underperforming the PM complex if that is possible. When oil did bottom it did so in dramatic fashion capitulating hard to the downside in one last climatic thrust.
I built a few new combo chart this weekend, related to oil sector, to see if I could paint a more clearer picture of what is taking place. Since the 2020 crash low the USO, US oil fund, has had a very strong rally with the high being made back in the middle of June around 93 or so. The USO has been forming a new trading range since the June high and is currently testing the top rail of the blue falling wedge and the bottom trendline the 2020 uptrend channel. So the moment of truth has arrived.
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Wednesday, November 09, 2022
What the USDX Shows Will Happen to Crude Oil Price Soon / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Less than a month from now – on December 5 – an embargo on maritime exports of Russian crude oil to the European Union will come into force, as I explained in my last article.
As a result, global oil supply is expected to tighten significantly, with Russia being the world’s largest exporter of oil and fuels.
Therefore, energy markets are bracing for turbulence, as they may face a new storm of volatility.
On the macroeconomic view, the US Dollar Currency Index – still weakening against a basket of major currencies – starts looking down from the balcony to revisit some lower floors:
Friday, November 04, 2022
Is Crude Oil Switching into Bullish Territory Now? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Paul_Rejczak
Oil prices are trading this Friday at their highest in nearly a month, benefiting from the looming tighter supply as an effect of market speculation around potential zero-Covid policy relief in China.
Available to premium subscribers only – New trading projections on Crude Oil Futures DEC22
In addition to the reduction in the OPEC+ production target of 2 million barrels per day for the month of November, the EU embargo and the planned cap on the price of Russian oil add to the pervasive tension in the market.
In addition, the G7 member countries and Australia have agreed to set a fixed cap for the price of Russian oil rather than a variable rate in the interests of clarity, while the United Kingdom has aligned itself with the European Union by prohibiting British ships and service providers from contributing to the maritime transport of Russian oil sold above the fixed price set by the G7 and Australia.
Sunday, October 23, 2022
WTI Crude Oil Is Stuck in a Choppy Trading Range / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Oil prices ended the week caught between the headwinds of a tighter global supply and a lacklustre economic outlook eroding consumers' purchasing power.
Macroeconomics
On Thursday, the greenback took off over the value of 150 Japanese yen – a symbolic price mark – for the first time since the 1990s.
Thursday, September 15, 2022
Bearish Signals Remain for Brent and WTI Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
After the bearish progress, oil prices slipped slightly as worries about the global growth outlook overtook fears about the supply shortage.
Macroeconomics
On the macroeconomic view, the greenback found support on its 50-Day Moving Average (DMA) at the beginning of the week before resuming its rally upward and approaching its monthly highs of $110-110.50. Will the quarterly R3 pivot ($115) be reached anytime soon, or will the $110.50 level be left as its two-decade high?
Friday, July 08, 2022
Crude Oil Is Caught Between Recession Fears and Supply Cuts / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Oil prices fluctuated on fears of a recession and a contraction in demand. What are the main figures to observe in this critical month?
Crude oil prices hovered between red and green on Thursday after two days of steep losses this week, still plagued by fears of a global economic recession that could threaten demand but also supply cuts in a tight market.
New Lockdown and Restrictions for the Chinese Panda
On the Asian continent, several million people may again suffer from strict restrictions because of China’s “zero-Covid policy” because of this epidemic rebound, which raises fears of the return of restrictions in Shanghai a month after the lifting of a long and grueling lockdown.
Thursday, July 07, 2022
Crude Oil Collapsed Below $100PPB – Has The US FED Broken Inflation? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
On Tuesday, July 5th, Crude Oil collapsed very sharply, down over 10% near the lows, in an aggressive breakdown of the price. The $97.43 lows reached that day were more than -14% from recent highs (set on June 29, 2022) and more than -21% from highs set on June 14, 2022.
Consumer Discretionary Spending Likely To Fall Further
In a recent research article (published June 9, 2022: CRUDE OIL PRICE AND CONSUMER SPENDING – HOW THEY ARE RELATED), we shared a similar breakdown that took place in Crude Oil in 2009 and how tightening consumer spending often correlates with peaks in Crude Oil when crisis events happen.
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Wednesday, June 29, 2022
Rebounding Crude Oil Gets Far Away from the Bearish Side / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Demand for crude oil is accelerating – a bullish sign for its prices. What may the current energy market environment say about the black gold’s outlook?
A Chinese Panda’s Appetite
On the Asian continent, the lifting of health restrictions in China could signal resuming oil demand for the world’s top consumer. Given the context of tight supply, this has partially triggered a rebound in crude while driving prices higher.
Geopolitical Scene
The Libyan National Oil Company (NOC) warned that they could declare a state of "force majeure" on the facilities in the Gulf of Sirte – blocked due to the political crisis that has been hitting the country for months.
In Ecuador as well, the spectre of a halt in oil production is becoming clearer following the blockades and demonstrations initiated by a movement protesting the rise in the cost of living.
Saturday, June 25, 2022
Crude Oil Price Forecast - Trend Breaks Downward – Rejecting The $120 Level / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The recent downward Crude Oil trend may have caught many traders by surprise. Just before the US Fed raised interest rates on June 15, 2022, Crude oil was trading above $120ppb. Less than 5 days later, it collapsed -12% and has continued to trend lower. Currently, Crude Oil is near -17% lower than recent highs.
It appears Crude Oil has confirmed resistance near $120 and is devaluing as consumers pull away from traditional driving/spending habits while the Fed aggressively attempts to burst the inflation bubble. This type of contraction in Crude Oil is very similar to what happened in 2008-09 when the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) hit – Crude Oil collapsed more than -70% after IYC started trending lower in 2007.
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Friday, June 10, 2022
Crude Oil Price Trend Trajectory / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Donald_W_Dony
Buoyed by tight world supply and higher demand, Light crude oil prices are expected to reach the first resistance level of $124.50 over the next few weeks. WTI prices are being driven by several factors. First, the summer driving season in the US, and second by the relaxation of China's Covid curbs (Chart 1).
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Friday, June 10, 2022
How Will Rising Crude Oil Prices Affect Demand and Gasoline? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
What are the new fundamentals for crude oil to look at this week? Could Asian demand be slowed down by Saudi Arabia raising its prices?
Crude oil prices soared earlier this week after Saudi Arabia said on Sunday it would raise crude oil prices for most regions except the United States. Just days after opening the floodgates a little wider (as announced last week following an OPEC+ meeting), Saudi Arabia wasted no time in raising its official selling price for Asia, its main market. It is worth noting that the country is one of the few OPEC members that has spare oil capacity. Thus, this decision to raise prices happens just when demand, especially in Asia, is increasing.
In the prediction contest, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the price of a barrel of Brent to $135 by the end of the year.
Saturday, May 21, 2022
Why Is Crude Oil Ignoring US Inventories? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
While the current pull-back on black gold is fundamentally triggered by different forces, where is the prevailing wind coming from that is pushing prices lower?
On Wednesday, the day after the US Fed’s Chair Powell showed a more hawkish tone, crude oil prices dropped 2.5% following profit-takings on most commodity markets - new fears emerged that a world economic slowdown combined with rising interest rates could negatively impact the global demand. By the way, talking about profit-takings, our subscribers took theirs on Monday within the last phases of the strong rally in crude oil that hit our last projected targets.
Saturday, May 14, 2022
Futures Contract – Trading Crude Oil With USO / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Crude oil, like most commodities, is not priced as a single data point like a stock. Instead, commodities, like oil, trade via futures contracts. A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a particular commodity or security at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future. Futures contracts are standardized for quantity and quality specifications to facilitate trading on a futures exchange.
Unlike options, futures contracts do not have a time value component in their pricing. Each futures contract is a standalone contract with its own ending date, supply and demand, and market-determined price for the underlying product. Another key difference between options and futures is that while an option gives the holder a right to buy or sell at a specific price, exercising that right is optional. A futures contract is a legal contract for delivering an underlying physical product or, in some cases, a cash equivalent. Futures contract performance is a legally binding agreement and is not optional.
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Wednesday, April 27, 2022
Crude Oil Is Holding Its Breath As China Fears COVID Again / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
While China plans to implement lockdowns for fear of an epidemic, concerns about the coronavirus are taking a toll on the oil market. Will it escalate?
Crude oil prices remained lower on Tuesday, after significant losses suffered the day before. They are still weighed down by fears of a general lockdown in Beijing, the capital of China, as well as in Shanghai, thus risking a demand reduction for black gold.
The concern also affects industrial metals, of which China is a major consumer. They recorded substantial price drops on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on Monday. As per the below chart, the LMEX, an index that incorporates the prices of aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc traded on the LME, posted 4,864.9 points on Monday, erasing all its gains from March and April:
Friday, March 18, 2022
Crude Oil Prices Keep Falling. Is It Time to Get Long on Black Gold? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Crude oil continues to decline due to lowered demand, and the petrodollar seems threatened, losing interest. What is the best strategy to take now?
Oil prices kept falling this week, driven by potential progress in Ukraine-Russia talks and a potential slowdown in the Giant Panda’s (China) economic growth due to epidemic lockdowns in some regions where a surge of Omicron was observed.
As I mentioned in my previous article, India considers getting Russian crude oil supplies and other commodities at a reduced price by settling transactions through a rupee/rouble payment system. Meanwhile, we keep getting rumors – notably reported by The Wall Street Journal – that Saudi Arabia and China are also currently discussing pricing some Saudi oil exports directly in yuan. The Chinese are actively seeking to dethrone the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and this latest development suggests that the petrodollar is now under threat.
Monday, March 07, 2022
Sanctions Threat Already Wipes Out Almost all Russian Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Crude Oil Climbs High. Is It Enough to Enjoy a Better View?
The threat of sanctions caused a stir in the markets: WTI spiked above $130 and Brent is nearing the $140 mark. Where is crude oil going next?
A possible Western embargo on Russian oil caused oil prices to soar again on Monday, as stock markets feared persistent inflation and a consequent economic slowdown.
On the US dollar side, the continued rally of the greenback has propelled the dollar index (DXY) towards higher levels, as it is now approaching the three-figure mark ($100), even though it has not had a huge impact on crude oil, other petroleum products, or any other commodities in general. What we rather witness here is the greenback’s safe haven effect attracting investors, much like gold would tend to act in a “store of value” role.
Thursday, January 20, 2022
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Crude oil prices closed yesterday near their 7-year highs. What do you think are the main price drivers prevailing for this surge on crude oil prices?
Geopolitical Situation
Crude oil prices closed yesterday near their 7-year highs, as an attack on an oil site in Abu Dhabi further strained an already tense market. The concern about the deterioration of the situation between Ukraine and Russia, which has been occurring for several days, has been overtaken by the attack on the infrastructures of the United Arab Emirates. On Monday, an attack probably committed by drones blew up three tank trucks near the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC)’s reservoirs.
Saturday, December 18, 2021
WTI & Brent Crude Oil – How Will Inflation Impact Energy Prices? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Once inflation is set free, it never returns to the previous state. The fight requires fast thinking, but major banks still sit on the fence.
On the global economic scene, major central banks still don’t really know which pedal to use - either the one to fight inflation (tapering) or the other one to keep taking their shoot of quantitative easing (money-printing) policies. Inflation, however, is like toothpaste: once you got it out, you can’t get it back in again. So, instead of squeezing the tube too strongly, both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are likely to maintain an accommodating tone this week, which could eventually benefit the price of black gold.
Crude oil prices were looking for a direction to take on Tuesday, after mixed reports emerged, one rather pessimistic on global demand (published by EIA) and the other, more optimistic over sustained demand, from the OPEC group. Indeed, the first report came from the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday morning. It slightly lowered its forecast of world oil demand for 2021 and 2022, by 100,000 barrels per day on average, mainly to consider the lower use of air fuels due to new restrictions on international travel.
Sunday, November 28, 2021
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
It appears that the US markets didn’t find the Thanksgiving turkey very tasty this year.
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Friday, November 05, 2021
Where is Crude Oil Price Headed? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
With the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday, oil looks to be in a corrective phase, as pressure is on for more crude. Are we looking at bearish winds ahead?
Crude oil prices have started their corrective wave, as we are approaching the monthly OPEC+ group meeting on Thursday, with some market participants now considering the eventuality of a larger-than-expected rise in production.
Friday, October 29, 2021
Shrinking US Crude Reserves Might Confirm the Trend Now! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Oil prices rose again on Tuesday, approaching multi-year highs amid concerns over steadily shrinking US crude reserves.
Fundamental Analysis
U.S. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock:
Wednesday, October 20, 2021
Crude Oil Is in the Fast Lane, But Where Is It Going? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
What’s the price level exit for the black gold?
The new front month contract (as we switched now to Dec’21) for WTI Crude Oil futures closed the week at $82 per barrel on Friday (Oct. 15th).
Fundamentally, nothing seems to be able to stop, in the short term, the surge in crude oil prices which continued to rise on Friday amid concerns over supply, since the WTI hit a new high in almost seven years.
In addition, the slight decline of the US dollar may signify a more marked optimism of the markets in the perspectives of a gradual recovery of the global economy.
Sunday, October 17, 2021
Went Long the Crude Oil? Beware of the Headwinds Ahead… / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Falling oil demand and bearish US inventories are not of any good to WTI investors. However, a deeper slide might be a great place to enter the trade…
Fundamental Analysis
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has downgraded its estimate of world oil demand for 2021. The demand has been lower than expected so far despite strong prospects for the end of the year.
In fact, in its monthly report, the cartel estimates that oil demand will rebound by 5.82 million barrels per day (mb/d) this year, while it forecast 5.96 mb/d last month.
Saturday, September 25, 2021
Crude Oil Price Piercing the Sky: Where Will We See the Black Gold by Xmas? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Paul_Rejczak
Knock, knock? Is it already the sky, or just a ceiling? Either way, oil has risen substantially — how high can it go?
Fundamental Updates
The crude closed on highs on Thursday thanks to optimism about demand as well as the remaining tight supply. In fact, this increase is driven by a general market sentiment that is relatively favorable to the macroeconomic situation and the conviction that supply should remain tight until the end of 2021.
The WTI crude oil futures rose 1.5% - more than $1 compared to Wednesday's close. Like Wall Street, the oil market has also been sensitive to more and more reassuring tone of messages from China about the situation of real estate developer Evergrande, which is on the verge of default. In addition, the acceleration of air travel caused by Washington lifting restrictions on entry into the United States could also boost demand for kerosene. And finally, while natural gas prices are hanging from the ceiling, we could see a shift in demand from gas to oil happening, which would obviously boost the barrel rally in Q4!
Friday, September 03, 2021
Will Crude Oil Prices Skyrocket in the Aftermath of Hurricane Ida? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
"Supply and demand" does not always determine the price trend of crude oil
As you probably know, Hurricane Ida hit Louisiana on August 29, the exact date that Hurricane Katrina made a Louisiana landfall sixteen years earlier.
On August 30, the Wall Street Journal said:
Oil Industry Surveys Damage After Hurricane Ida Slams Louisiana
The storm disrupted fuel supplies, and the speed of the recovery will depend on how long it takes for refineries to come online amid flooding and power outages
Did oil prices skyrocket due to the disruption in oil production? Well, Bloomberg reported (August 30) that prices initially fell 1.6% [as Ida made landfall] before they "edged" higher.
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Thursday, April 08, 2021
You're invited: Spot the Next BIG Move in Oil, Gas, Energy ETFs / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
Dear reader,
Almost exactly a year ago, oil prices went negative $40.
Today, with crude trading at $60, you're hearing lots of opinions as to what's next.
"Electric car revolution" ... "reopening economy" ... "end of commute" ... "start of travel season"
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Tuesday, November 03, 2020
Determining the Crude Oil Price Next Big Move / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil started this week with a bearish price gap and a breakdown below the September and October lows. This is an extremely valuable indication. The black gold seems to have finally decided what the next big move is going to be, and by breaking lower, it effectively “agreed” with our expectations.
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Thursday, October 22, 2020
Natural Gas/UNG Stepping GAP Patterns Suggest Pending Upside Breakout / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
An upward stepping GAP pattern for UNG and Natural Gas has our research team believing a strong upside price breakout may be pending. We believe the open gap patterns, which are below the current price levels, represent a building momentum based/bottom that has setup in UNG. This pattern, if we are correct, may prompt a big breakout move in the near future.
THREE GAPS PATTERN & MOMENTUM BASE COMPLETE – WHAT NEXT?
These GAP patterns are similar to a Japanese Candlestick pattern called “Three Gaps”. A Three Gaps pattern is typically associated with trending and suggests an exhaustion top may be near. It is represented by three very clear open price gaps in a defined trend (up or down), as can be seen in the chart below.
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Wednesday, October 21, 2020
Crude Oil Price Stalls In Resistance Zone / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
CLEAR PRICE CHANNEL MAY PROMPT BIG BREAKOUT OR BREAKDOWN MOVE IN OIL
In this report, I discuss the recent price action in crude oil and how economic conditions and the pennant flag chart pattern is indicating a big price move is about to take place over the next few weeks. While some of you may want a clear, bold prediction as to whether a breakout or breakdown may happen, as technical traders, our job is to predict different possible setups and identify the criteria that will tell us when to enter the trade upon confirmation. Read below to learn more.
Crude Oil has continued to retest the $41.75 to $42.00 resistance level over the past 30+ days. My research team believes this represents a very clear indication that further failure to advance above this level will prompt a moderate price decline – likely breaking below the $36.00 ppb price level.
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Sunday, September 27, 2020
China Ramps Up U.S. Crude Oil Imports As Elections Near / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
China has been buying a lot of U.S. crude oil lately, perhaps in a belated attempt to fulfill some of the energy import quotas agreed with Washington last year or perhaps in a bid to take advantage of supercheap U.S. crude. But the buying spree is about to end.
This month alone, China could import between 867,000 bpd, according to Reuters' Refinitiv data, and 900,000 bpd, according to oilfield services company Canary. And then the flow of U.S. oil into China will decline, and it will decline sharply, Reuters' Clyde Russell wrote this week. The reason as simple as it is worrying. The U.S. crude that has been going into China since July—and reaching major records in terms of volume, with the July daily average alone up 139 percent on the year—was bought much earlier, in April, May, and June. This was oil bought when West Texas Intermediate was trading at multi-year lows. By June it had recovered to about $40, Russell notes, so purchases since then have been more modest.
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Sunday, September 20, 2020
Crude Oil – A Slight Move Higher Has Not Reversed The Bearish Trend / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
At last, crude oil moved a bit higher, so you might be asking yourself if the trend has reversed or is this just a pause before the moves continue.
In short, we think the latter is much closer to the truth.
The fact remains that in a global and hyperconnected economy such as today, no market can sustain complete independence of the rest of the world. Crude oil, as the most versatile marketplace commodity, is not excluded from that reality.
Namely, the two markets that the black gold often looks up to the most are stocks and currencies. In today’s analysis, we’ll focus on the latter.
The black gold upswing has been relatively modest, and parallels with a similar pause in the USD Index. To validate this, let’s take a look at the following charts for more details.
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Friday, September 11, 2020
Crude Oil – The Bearish Outlook Remains / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil declined quite substantially this week, and it doesn’t look that the decline will be over just yet.
After a given market clearly moves in a certain direction, corrective moves are bound to happen. After all, no market can move in a straight line up or down. But still, this assumption might be misleading in case of the current situation in black gold. Obviously, it is taking a breather right now after declining several dollars. But, that doesn’t mean that any sizeable rebound is going to happen.
As a matter of fact, based on how crude oil behaved before the decline, we believe that it’s going to slide even further.
In today’s globalized and interconnected economy, no market moves completely independently from the rest of the world. Crude oil, as the most versatile commodity in the market, is definitely not an exception.
Friday, September 11, 2020
Crude Oil Breaks Lower – Sparking Fears Of Another Sub $30 Price Collapse / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- Breakdown in Crude Oil sparks talk of sub $30 price targets.
- Initial support likely near $32 to $33.
- Predictive Modeling suggests deeper price lows may be reached before November 2020.
Have you been paying attention to Crude Oil recently? Prices have collapsed over -15% from the recent highs near $43.78. You may remember a research article I posted originally in July 2019 suggesting a big breakdown in Crude Oil was going to take place in early 2020 and extreme volatility was likely between February 2020 and April 2020. Our researchers predicted the following within that research article:
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Friday, July 31, 2020
Is Crude Oil Price Setting Up for a Waterfall Decline? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts oil and discusses what he sees ahead for the commodity.
Compared to the wild volatility that we witnessed back in the spring, trading in oil has become very light and subdued, with volatility in it dropping to a very low level, and as a result many traders are losing interest in it. It is quiet—too quiet—and complacency towards it is now rife, but as we will see, there are signs that this may all be about to change, and fast.
We'll start by looking at the year-to-date arithmetic chart for Light Crude on which we can see all of the dramatic developments this year. After deteriorating early in the year, the oil price accelerated to the downside, plunging early in March with a big gap down and then it continued to weaken into mid-April when a sudden huge drop left some contracts not just worthless, but actually having negative worth, meaning that if you took delivery you had to in effect pay someone to take it away, for an amount that exceeded what the oil was actually worth. Clearly, this was a situation that was untenable because so much depends on the oil price, so the Fed and the Military–Industrial complex worked all the levers at their disposal to get the price back up again, which of course included creating trillions of new dollars to throw at the problem, and to throw at the markets generally, especially the "window dressing" FAANG stocks. Up to now this has worked and we have seen a recovery rally of astounding proportions in the stock markets, especially the tech sector, and a respectable recovery in the oil price, and what makes all this even more astounding is that it has happened as the real world economy has been frozen by widespread lockdowns, the main purpose of which is to kill the velocity of money so that the Fed can print trillions and buy up everything without it feeding through immediately into hyperinflation—that will come later.
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Sunday, July 12, 2020
Getting Ahead of the Game: What Determines the Prices of Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Dylan_Moran
Oil is a commodity that plays an indisputable role in the global economy. At the start of the 20th century, the oil industry went into mass production, thus giving birth to what we refer to as the modern era of oil consumption. Gradually, coal was starting to take a backseat to it and oil became the world’s #1 fuel source and the undisputed king of commodity trading.
To this very day, this remains unchanged. The only question is, what drives the prices of oil?
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Tuesday, July 07, 2020
Saudi Arabia Eyes Total Dominance In Oil And Gas Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz claimed last week that the Kingdom will be the world’s biggest hydrocarbon producer “even” in 2050.
“I can assure that Saudi Arabia will not only be the last producer, but Saudi Arabia will produce every molecule of hydrocarbon and it will put it to good use … It will be done in the most environmentally sound and safe way and the most sustainable way,” Abdulaziz said when asked about the oil market outlook in 2050 during a virtual conference convened by Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative Institute (FII-I).
Abdulaziz added that Saudi Arabia “will be the last and biggest producer of hydrocarbon even then,” referring to 2050.
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Saturday, June 27, 2020
Crude Oil Price Meets Key Resistance / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil moved above the previous highs and at the moment of writing these words, it’s testing the upper border of the March price gap. And given the fundamental news that are reaching (and likely to reach) the market – the increasing Covid-19 cases in the U.S. and globally – it seems that black gold might not have enough strength to keep pushing higher.
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Tuesday, June 23, 2020
Making Sense of Crude Oil Price Narrow Trading Range / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
We previously wrote that while it was tempting to bet on crude oil’s prices due to their weakness, it was not a good idea from the risk to reward point of view, as black gold didn’t invalidate the breakout above the early-March high. And it was definitely a good idea not to enter a short position then either – crude oil moved higher since that time.
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Tuesday, June 16, 2020
Stocks Bulls Beware: A Dark Cloud Is Forming Over Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Bullish sentiment appears to have returned to the stock markets with a vengeance. In a historic rally that has taken even die-hard bulls by surprise, the S&P 500 has managed to claw back all of its 2020 losses, taking just 53 sessions for the index to fully restore the nearly $10T in value it shed in an epic bear market. The oil markets have been nearly as impressive.
After entering negative territory for the first time in history, U.S. WTI prices have briefly touched $40/bbl amid record production cuts and an uptick in global demand. Oil and gas stocks have doubled from their March 23 nadir, marking a sharp reversal from the precipitous drop that wiped out nearly two decades of gains.
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Wednesday, May 27, 2020
Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
Though gasoline demand remains historically weak, commuters are beginning to head back to their offices, opting for the isolation of their personal vehicles and abandoning public transit, reports McAlinden Research.
Saudi Arabia enhanced their commitment to OPEC+ supply cuts as the Kingdom said they'd shut production of additional 1 million barrels of crude oil per day next month. Most of the OPEC+ countries have already come close to compliance with the deal that took effect this month and cuts from non-member states like Norway, Brazil, Canada, and the US are compounding the already steep curbs on production. Though gasoline demand remains historically weak, commuters are beginning to head back to their offices, opting for the isolation of their personal vehicles and abandoning public transit.
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Wednesday, May 20, 2020
It’s Make Or Break For the Crude Oil Bulls / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Just like the precious metals market, black gold ended the previous week with a sizable upswing. The rally continued in the early Monday trading, as crude oil moved decisively above its previous April highs.
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Tuesday, May 19, 2020
Is Crude Oil On the Way Up Now? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil soared higher yesterday and also in today’s pre-market trading, which shows you why it was a good idea to remain cautious yesterday, even despite crude oil’s breakdown below the rising support line.
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Sunday, May 10, 2020
Forecasting Crude Oil: This Method Has Been the Undefeated Champion Since 1998 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
The battle between Elliott waves and supply/demand forecasting approach continuesIn case you just landed on Earth via Martian spaceship, 2020 has seen the biggest crash in oil prices ever.
This chart captures crude's three-month, 80%-plus nosedive to 3-decade lows. (Price data as of May 1, 2020 and does not reflect the unprecedented April 20 plunge into negative territory at -$40.32. Yes, minus $40.32).
Saturday, May 09, 2020
Silver Offers A Great Opportunity / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Hubert_Moolman
The stock market has had a great run during the last decade. It has made some people a good stack of money.
However, the March crash has many wondering what it will do next. Will it continue to crash, or will it continue the bull market?
Is it really worth spending time and effort contemplating its next move? I think not.
The market is currently presenting a great opportunity to lock in those stock market profits, and then even growing it much more.
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Thursday, May 07, 2020
Light Crude oil prices have bottomed and starting to rise / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Donald_W_Dony
Light Crude oil prices have dropped an alarming 68 percent since the start of 2020. Brent prices are down 60 percent over the last four months. But recent price action appears to show that the worst of oil's decline is likely over.
As the world economies are still being mauled by the effects of COVID-19, there are growing signs that oil prices are starting to recover.
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Saturday, May 02, 2020
Crude Oil Prices Go NEGATIVE! What's Next? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Negative oil prices is another corona consequences that no one saw coming. A 30% drop in world oil demand due to the corona lockdown's resulting in demand falling to 70m barrels per day, whilst the producers are pumping out over 90mbd meant that storage faculties had become saturated, thus nowhere to transport new supply to.
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Sunday, April 26, 2020
What’s Next for Crude Oil Price? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
From the unimaginable lows, crude oil is shaking off the dust. Moving higher, can it rise like a phoenix?
Before moving to the technical part of today’s analysis, it seems that a quote from yesterday’s Oil Trading Alert would be appropriate:
Crude oil was just trading below 0. Well, not completely, but the nearest futures contract was trading below 0 for the first time ever.
In case you missed it, here’s the screenshot from finance.yahoo.com and yesterday’s price quote as it was falling.
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Tuesday, April 07, 2020
Crude Oil's 2020 Crash: See What Helped (Some) Traders Pivot Just in Time / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
The coronavirus wasn't the cause of oil's 70% collapse. This was
Let's start by establishing that the stock market is not driven by the news. Aggregate stock prices are driven by waves of optimism and pessimism -- which go from one extreme to another -- as reflected by the Elliott wave model. That's what makes the stock market predictable.
Hence, Elliott wave analysis is at the core of EWI's stock market forecasts.
Having said that, sentiment indicators are also valuable in providing clues about "what's next."
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Friday, March 13, 2020
What's Next for Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
When it comes to our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system, we get asked questions from our friends and followers about how it could predict a virus event or how it could predict a price event so far out into the future. The truth of the matter is the ADL predictive modeling system doesn’t predict unknown virus, banking or other types of events.
What it does do, quite well we might add, is identify historically accurate price events (almost like unique DNA markers) and attempts to identify future price events that align with recent price bar (DNA) setups. In other words, it maps the markets highest probability outcomes by studying past price activity and using a unique DNA-like mapping system. Once this analysis is complete for any chart, we can ask it what is likely to happen in the future.
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Thursday, February 27, 2020
Oil Price Is Now More Volatile Than Bitcoin / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
You know that the oil markets have truly gone to the dogs when they are suddenly riskier than one of the world’s most volatile commodities: bitcoin.
Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies are synonymous with extreme bouts of volatility. However, it’s crude oil that is now earning that dubious distinction after exhibiting price swings wilder than even the leading cryptocurrency.
On February 10, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil’s one-month realized, or historical, price volatility stood at 105.3%. In contrast, bitcoin's historical volatility clocked in at 42.3%, its lowest reading since September, according to Skew Markets.
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Thursday, February 20, 2020
Is Crude Oil Firmly on the Upswing Now? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
It appeared that the bears firmly took the reins of yesterday’s session, but most of their gains were history before the closing bell. Have we seen an important turning point for oil?
Let’s start with the daily chart examination (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com and http://stooq.com ).
Crude oil opened yesterday’s session with the green bullish gap that’s slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Although the bulls took the commodity a bit higher after the market open, this strong resistance encouraged the sellers to act.
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Thursday, February 13, 2020
Crude Oil Price Action – Like a Coiled Spring Already? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading slightly above the $50 mark, crude oil hasn’t made a decisive move either way so far. Yesterday’s bullish session has brought us new clues. Let’s dive and examine the strength of the evolving oil move higher.
We’ll start by taking a closer look at the daily chart (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Sunday, January 26, 2020
The "Twin Threats" Facing Big Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The global oil and gas industry is facing the "twin threats" of the loss of profitability and the loss of social acceptability as the climate crisis continues to worsen. The industry is not adequately responding to either of those threats, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
"Oil and gas companies have been proficient at delivering the fuels that form the bedrock of today's energy system; the question that they now face is whether they can help deliver climate solutions," the IEA said.
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Wednesday, January 08, 2020
The All-Out View of Crude Oil’s Spike / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Let’s put the geopolitical gyrations in oil into a proper perspective by taking a look at the monthly chart. The overall situation hasn’t changed much as crude oil is still trading inside the blue consolidation below three very important resistances (the red and orange bearish gaps and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement), which form the key resistance zone for the coming week(s).
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Tuesday, January 07, 2020
Crude Oil Price Reverses Lower Again After US Missile Attack / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Normally, after tensions between Iran/Iraq and the US flare-up, Oil and Gold rally quite extensively but reversed sharply lower by the end of the session.
Yes, Gold is 1% higher today and was up over $35 overnight, but Crude Oil has actually moved lower today which is a fairly strong indication that disruptions in oil supply from the Middle East are not as concerning as they were 10+ years ago. Traders and investors don’t believe this isolated targeted missile attack will result in any extended aggression between the US and Iran.
When past conflicts in the Middle East happened, Oil would typically rally and Gold would spike higher as well. Consider this a reflex action to uncertain oil supply issues and concerns that global market uncertainty could crash the markets. Gold seems like an easy expectation related to this type of uncertainty as it continues to act as a hedge against many risks like missiles/war, financial uncertainties etc…
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Saturday, January 04, 2020
Crude Oil Prices Have Peaked / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Donald_W_Dony
Following the December 18, 2019 Market Minute titled "Are oil prices at a crest?" oil prices (WTI and Brent) are both finding increasing selling pressure as they moved to the top of their trading range.
Light crude oil found solid selling pressure around $62 and Brent at about $67 (Charts 1 & 2).
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Friday, January 03, 2020
Crude Oil Price Reverses Lower Faster Than You Can Blink / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Although oil bulls managed to push the futures higher and broke above the upper border of the rising green trend channel during yesterday’s session, Monday’s upswing turned out only temporary.
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Monday, December 30, 2019
Crude Oil Bulls Again Rejected At the Resistance / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil futures extended gains, breaking above the upper border of the rising green trend channel during yesterday’s session. This upswing took the futures right to the red gap. Let’s see how this has reflected upon the daily indicators.
They look quite extended, suggesting that the space for additional gains may be limited and that a reversal is probably just around the corner.
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Monday, December 23, 2019
Crude Oil Bulls Keep Trying But the Technical Headwinds Are Stiff / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil futures moved higher once again during yesterday’s session, overcoming the upper border of the rising green trend channel for the third time in a row. While the futures finished the day above this resistance, the bulls didn’t manage to hold gained ground in full.
Earlier today, the futures opened with the red gap. This bearish development means invalidation of yesterday’s breakout, which doesn’t bode well for the bulls.
The daily indicators are still very extended, also supporting the likelihood of upcoming reversal to the downside.
Should the futures extend losses from here, the initial downside target for the sellers will be the Friday’s green gap.
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Tuesday, December 03, 2019
Crude Oil Price Sliding Faster Than You Can Blink / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil futures declined sharply on Friday. The steep slide’s result was a breakdown below the lower border of the rising green trend channel. As the prices closed the day below the formation, it’s clearly a bearish development.
Despite this setback, the bulls opened the week with a green gap, which has triggered modest improvement in the following hours. The bulls are fighting to invalidate the earlier breakdown below the green trend channel, and have reached the lower border of the blue consolidation on intraday basis. Prices have pulled back since though, and are currently trading at around $56.00.
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Friday, November 22, 2019
The Worst Is Over For Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Some analysts see the world dodging a recession next year, which provides some upward room for oil prices.
Last week, the IEA warned last week that “the hefty supply cushion” building up in the first half of 2020 will cause OPEC+ problems as the group tries to balance the oil market. Part of the reason for another potential surplus is the steep drop in demand growth this year, forcing oil forecasters to make multiple downward revisions to their projections.
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Thursday, November 21, 2019
Crude Oil Price Begins To Move Lower / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, we posted a multi-part research post suggesting a collapse in Crude Oil could be setting up and how we believe this decline in energy prices may lead to a broader market collapse in the near future. Crude oil fell more than 3% on November 19 in what appears to be a major price reversal. On November 20, inventory levels and other key economic data will be presented – could the price of oil collapse even further over the next 60+ days?
Here is a link to our most recent multi-part article about Crude Oil from November 13 (just a week ago): https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/what-happens-to-the-global-economy-if-oil-collapses-below-40-part-i/
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Sunday, November 17, 2019
When the Crude Oil Price Collapses Below $40 What Happens? PART III / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This, the final section of this multi-part research article, will continue our exploration of the consequences that may result from our ADL predictive modeling system’s suggestion that Oil may continue to fall to levels below $40 over the next few months.
In Part I and Part II, we’ve highlighted what we believe to be very compelling evidence that any continue oil price decline from current levels may be setting up the global markets for a massively volatile price reversion – similar to what happened in 1929.
Prior to the stock market collapse in 1929 and the start of the Great Depression, commodity prices collapsed in 1921 and again in 1930. This commodity price collapse was the result of over-supply and a dramatic change in investor mentality. The shift away from tangible items and real successful investing/manufacturing and towards speculation in the housing markets and stock market.
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Friday, November 15, 2019
What happens To The Global Economy If Oil Collapses Below $40 – Part II / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the first part of this research article, we shared our ADL predictive modeling research from July 10th, 2019 where we suggested that Oil prices would begin to collapse to levels near, or below, $40 throughout November and December of 2019. Our ADL modeling system suggests that oil prices may continue lower well into early 2020 where the price is expected to target $25 to $30 in February~April 2020.
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Thursday, November 14, 2019
What Happens To The Global Economy If the Oil Price Collapses Below $40 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Currently, commodity prices are the cheapest they’ve been in over 40 years compared to equity prices. US Equities have continued to rise over the past 7+ years due to a number of external processes. QE1, 2, 3, and Fed Debt Purchases Share Buy-Backs and creative credit facilities. Only recently have investors really started to pile into the US stock market (see charts below). Global investors were very cautious throughout the rally from 2011 to 2016. In fact, the amount of capital invested within the US money market accounts was relatively flat throughout that entire time.
It was only after the 2016 US presidential election that investors really began to have confidence in the global economy and started piling into the US stock market and money market accounts. This was also after the time that Oil began to collapse (2014~16) as well as the deflation of Emerging Markets rallies. With all this new money having entered the global markets and equities being extremely overbought currently, what would happen is Oil collapsed below $40 and the global economic outlook soured headed into the 2020 US presidential election?
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Thursday, November 14, 2019
The EIA Is Grossly Overestimating U.S. Oil Shale / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The prevailing wisdom that sees explosive and long-term potential for U.S. shale may rest on some faulty and overly-optimistic assumptions, according to a new report.
Forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), along with those from its Paris-based counterpart, the International Energy Agency (IEA), are often cited as the gold standard for energy outlooks. Businesses and governments often refer to these forecasts for long-term investments and policy planning.
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Saturday, November 09, 2019
Oil Price Reversal in Progress / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Let's take a closer look at the chart below (chart courtesy of www.stooq.com ) and assess the likely crude oil price path ahead.
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Thursday, October 24, 2019
Making Money Trading Oil: A Slippery Investment or Black Gold? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
...
Wednesday, October 16, 2019
Where Next for Oil After Its Double Reversal? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Crude oil bounced from its yesterday’s lows, and the oil bulls rebuffed another attempt to move lower earlier today. Does that mean that the upswing can continue now, or a cautious approach would win the day?
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Wednesday, October 09, 2019
USO United States Oil Fund Longer Term Cycles & Elliott Wave / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ElliottWaveForecast
Firstly the USO instrument inception date was 4/10/2006. CL_F Crude Oil put in an all time high at 147.27 in July 2008. USO put in an all time high at 119.17 in July 2008 noted on the monthly chart. The decline from there into the February 2009 lows was in three swings. An a-b-c in red although it was a very steep pullback.
The bounce from the 2009 lows is a complex double three combination with a triangle “y”. This is w-x-y in red to end the blue wave (x). In either a bullish or bearish market this particular structure always makes a high or low in the initial wave “w”. Structures like this will be followed by a contracting or running triangle. In this case the structure ended in June 2014. The decline from those highs were very sharp again. However, this was in three swings again a-b-c in red to end the blue wave (y). This completed a three swing correction (w)-(x)-(y) in blue from the July 2008 highs. That is labeled ((b)) in black at the February 2016 lows.
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Friday, October 04, 2019
ADL Predicts Crude Oil Prices Will Fall Below $40 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
There are times when our research team interprets our advanced predictive modeling systems so well that we call a move in the markets 3 to 10+ months in advance of the move actually happening. It has happened for our team of research so often lately that we are somewhat used to the accolades we receive from our followers and members. Our October 2018 Gold price predictions are still playing out accurately and continue to amaze people – even though we made these predictions over 12 months ago.
Today, we wanted to highlight our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling systems expectations for Crude Oil, but before we get into the details be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter. The research post we made on July 10, 2019 (see below). At that time, we warned that Crude Oil was about to head much lower and that our ADL modeling system was suggesting that Oil prices would rotate between $47 and $64 before breaking much lower in November 2019. Ultimately, Oil prices will fall below $40 ppb following our timeline and could begin a broader downside move before the end of October 2019. Read our full prediction/research report from the link below.
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Sunday, September 29, 2019
Trump: Transform The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Into An Oil Bank / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Following the attacks on key crude oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia, President Donald Trump announced the authorization of the release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to keep the market well supplied. This move changes nothing in the way the SPR is governed. The market, not the President, should determine the release of the massive SPR.
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Sunday, September 29, 2019
Saudi Oil Shock: Who Wins, Who Loses / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Steve_H_Hanke
On September 14th, drones targeted Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil refinery and Khurais oil field. The strikes reportedly knocked out more than half of Saudi Arabia's total output. That amounts to a whopping 6-7% of the global daily oil supply. Not surprisingly, before the dust had settled, the press sounded an alarm and spread fear. Then, President Trump jumped in, claiming the attack “won't affect us and ultimately I don't think it will affect the world either.” Well, let’s take a look at the data.
Brent crude prices surged by 15%, from $60/bbl on September 13th to $69/bbl on the 16th, the first trading day after last weekend’s drone attacks. Brent crude is now trading at $65/bbl. While a significant increase, the response to this incident has kept oil in what Arend Kapteyn of the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) deems to be in a safe zone ($50-$75/bbl). When prices are in this sweet spot, the “gains” and “losses” from oil price changes are roughly balanced, so the global economy can hum along without missing a beat.
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Tuesday, September 24, 2019
Crude Oil Price Volatility Returns / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Avi_Gilburt
By Andy Hecht: Crude oil is the energy commodity that powers the world. Over half of the world’s petroleum reserves are in the Middle East, which is the most turbulent political region on the face of the earth. Meanwhile, the United States is the leading consumer of crude oil.
For many years, the US dependence on Middle Eastern oil contributed to its price variance. The Arab-Israeli War in the 1970s led to an oil embargo and gasoline shortages in the US. When I first got my driving license, the US was on a program where gas was only available on alternate days each week depending on if a license plate had an odd or an even last digit. In 1979, the Islamic revolution in Iran led to a hostage crisis and supply concerns in the oil market.
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Tuesday, September 17, 2019
What Are The Real Upside Targets For Crude Oil Price Post Drone Attack? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After the news of the drone attack on the Saudi Arabia oil refinery, traders knew this week would be full of bigger price moves, reversals and some real opportunity for profits. We were also well aware of the risks of engaging in these market moves prior to fully understanding the dynamics of this event. We heard from many of our friends in the industry about open positions that were not properly scaled to deal with risk – and we know some of our friends took a hit early today.
The real questions before skilled technical traders are:
What will happen with Oil and where will price find the first level of resistance?
What will happen to the US and foreign major markets related to this supply disruption?
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Friday, September 13, 2019
Crude Oil Price Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Crude Oil has been trading in a fairly narrow range since mid-August – between $52 and $57 ppb. Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system suggested the downside price move in late July/early August was expected and the current support aligns very well with our ADL predictions of higher price rotation throughout most of September/October. Please take a minute to review the original research post below :
Friday, September 13, 2019
Weakening Shale Productivity "VERY Bullish" For Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
After years of improvements in drilling techniques and impressive "efficiency gains," there is now evidence that the U.S. shale industry is reaching the end of the road on well productivity.
A report earlier this month from Raymond James & Associates finds that the U.S. shale industry may struggling to achieve further productivity gains. If these improvements begin to fizzle out, it could result in "an inflection point in future global oil supply/demand balances," the investment bank said.
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Friday, September 06, 2019
Can Crude Oil Price Stay Above $50 To Support Producers Expectations? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recent news suggests that oil producers are attempting to increase production levels after failing to attempt to push prices higher by cutting production levels. Globally, oil producers want to see oil prices rise above $65 ppb in an effort to support profit and production cost expectations. The real issue for the nation/states that rely on oil production/sales is that the global economy may not cooperate with their expectations over the next 24+ months. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.
On August 6th, 2019, we posted this article suggesting that Natural Gas and Crude Oil were setting up diverging trades.
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Sunday, September 01, 2019
Crude Oil’s Failure Leads to a Profitable Opportunity / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil moved sharply higher yesterday, almost touching the previous August highs, but it didn’t manage to break above them. The resistance that we outlined in the previous Oil Trading Alerts kept the rally in check, and we already see the result. Crude oil simply declines. What’s next? How far can it decline?
In short, the previous outlook remains up-to-date, simply because the situation developed in tune with what we wrote.
Of course, a daily rally appears bullish at the first sight, especially for the inexperienced traders, but this is a false signal. To be clear, a daily rally is not bearish on its own, but it’s not enough to make the situation bullish either. Let’s keep in mind that price tops have to – by definition – happen after a rally, not after a decline… So why is the something-rallied-so-it’s-going-to-rally-again way of thinking so popular? It’s easy to extrapolate the most recent trends into the future as that’s what makes sense… Emotionally. And that’s exactly what makes this business hard in the long run. One of the most difficult trading tips one needs to adhere to in order to make money is that one usually needs to act against what seems so obvious at the first sight.
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Friday, August 23, 2019
U.S. To “Drown The World” In Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The U.S. could “drown the world in oil” over the next decade, which, according to Global Witness, would “spell disaster” for the world’s attempts to address climate change.
The U.S. is set to account for 61 percent of all new oil and gas production over the next decade. A recent report from this organization says that to avoid the worst effects of climate change, “we can’t afford to drill up any oil and gas from new fields anywhere in the world.” This, of course, would quickly cause a global deficit, as the world continues to consume around 100 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil.
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Tuesday, July 30, 2019
Crude Oil Should Breakdown to $51 This Week / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is predicting that Crude Oil will break recent support levels near $55 and move very quickly down to levels near $50 to $51 before August 2nd, 2019. The move to near the $50 price level is likely to be a 100% measured Fibonacci price extension related to the initial downside move from $61 to $55 earlier in July 2019.
After this new downside move completes, we expect Crude Oil will form a short-term price base just above $50 that may last many days or weeks. Our earlier analysis of Oil called this move and we outline our future oil expectations. For more information about this call, please review the following research posts.
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Tuesday, July 16, 2019
What Would Happen If Venezuela & the Middle East Couldn’t Access Oil? / Politics / Crude Oil
By: Rodney_Johnson
We’re hyper-focused on politics at the moment because, well, Trump. If he weren’t the president, with unshakeable support from one faction while inducing loathing from another, then the 2020 election cycle might be a touch less fanatical. But he is the president, and we’ve got Democratic hopefuls pummeling each other as they move to the left, promising many nw programs with questionable funding sources.It’s as if the laws of supply and demand have been suspended.
Maybe they have when it comes to politics, but back in the real world, supply and demand do matter. And this cold reality could put the energy market in the deep freeze over the next 12 months.
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Thursday, July 11, 2019
Predictive Modeling Suggest Oil Price Headed Much Lower / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive price modeling system is suggesting Crude Oil will likely continue to find resistance near $64 as a price ceiling and trend lower over the next 3 to 5 months – eventually breaking below the $40 price level near the end of 2019 or in early 2020.
Our research team believes this move could very well be contingent on a continued decline in global economic activity as well as our research suggesting that global currencies could be setting up for a breakdown event.
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Wednesday, July 10, 2019
Crude Oil Prices and the 2019 Hurricane Season / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted a near-normal 2019 hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.
But, the season got off to an early start with the short-lived sub-tropical storm Andrea on May 20.
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Thursday, July 04, 2019
Crude Oil Price Pummeled, Where Is It Going Next? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
On Tuesday, July 2, 2019, the price of Crude Oil fell over -4.5% on continued expectations of global economic weakness and supply gluts. We found this interview rather interesting because it attempts to suggest a narrative that ignores Iranian issues while pushing the supply side fundamental for the current price decline (Source: CNBC).
Back on May 21, 2019, we shared a post that is still very relevant today. The same price pattern is still in place and the same type of price action is working through the completion of an extended Pennant/Flag formation. We suggest all our follower read this May 21 post to catch up to current market levels.
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Thursday, July 04, 2019
Crude Oil’s Reversal Sparks Our New Trading Decision / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Yesterday’s oil session was indeed heavy on action. The initial upswing gave way to a reversal lower, leaving black gold to close almost unchanged. Well, it finished a bit lower than it opened the day actually. Does this signify something important? That important that it would make us act? You bet – let’s dive in to the juicy details.
Let’s take a closer look at the chart below (chart courtesy of www.stooq.com ).
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Monday, July 01, 2019
The Oil Crisis Saudi Arabia Can't Solve / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Saudi Arabia’s CEO Amin Nasr’s message to the press that oil flows to the market are guaranteed, should be taken with a pinch of salt.
Looking at the current volatility in the Persian/Arabian Gulf and the possibility of a temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Aramco CEO’s message might be a bit overoptimistic. In reality, Aramco will not be able to keep the necessary crude oil and products volumes flowing to Asian and European markets in the case of a full Strait of Hormuz blockade. Even that Aramco owns and operates a crude oil pipeline with a capacity of 5 million bpd, carrying crude 1,200 kilometers between the Arabian Gulf and Red Sea, much more is needed to keep the oil market stable.
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Friday, June 28, 2019
Can the Crude Oil Bulls Extend the Sputtering Rally? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
The series of higher oil prices appears to be over as today, we might see the bulls’ power tested. Where can the bears aim realistically and what is most likely to happen next? These are certainly valid questions as the oil price has reached an important resistance and appears hesitating today. Will some geopolitical news come to the rescue? High time to dive in...
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Saturday, June 01, 2019
Told You So: The Bearish Momentum in Crude Oil Accelerates / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Oil price is melting down like there’s no tomorrow. How else could we describe the bloodbath? Fresh monthly lows being hit on a daily basis. Slicing through important supports. With such a weak close to the trading week, how will black gold fare the next one? Clearly, the most recent Mexico tariff announcement hasn’t helped and it’s widely felt in the markets, including this one. Better news on the horizon?
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Wednesday, May 29, 2019
Are We Looking at a Dead Cat Bounce in Crude Oil Price? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Oil bulls look to have arrested the slide as there hasn’t been a down day since Thursday. One could easily expect a more vigorous rebound, however. The nearby resistances remain and black gold has hardly gone anywhere today so far. After the long weekend, will the bulls muster more strength, or does the technical picture favor another trip south in the coming days? The answer isn’t as easy as might be inferred from the Alert’s title...
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Sunday, May 26, 2019
An Oil Shock Could Be the Black Swan That Finally Drives Gold Higher / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up the top trends forecaster Gerald Celente of the Trends Journal joins me to discuss a myriad of topics. Gerald gives us more insight on why the precious metals are struggling, why he recently changed his economic forecast and also shares why he believes a continuation of the rising tensions in both Venezuela and the Middle East could lead to a spike in oil prices that the world simply cannot afford. Don’t miss another wonderful interview with the great Gerald Celente, coming up after this week’s market update.
As global stock and commodity markets gyrate, gold and silver markets are gaining some safe haven strength.
Gold prices moved back into positive territory on Thursday but is little changed for week now. The yellow metal is up a slight 0.4% since last Friday’s close to trade at $1,284 per ounce.
Silver has been beaten down this spring but is at least showing some signs of life here during the later part of the week, or at the very least has appeared to stabilize a bit. The white metal is now up a 0.9% for the week to bring spot prices to $14.61 an ounce.
Turning to the platinum group metals, platinum registers a weekly loss of 2.2% to trade at $805. And finally, palladium shows a 0.7% decline to come in at $1,332 per ounce as of this Friday morning recording.
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Sunday, May 26, 2019
Crude Oil Bulls, Are You Serious About Arresting the Slide? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
We have said the bulls had a bad day on Wednesday. How would you rate their yesterday’s performance? Heck, they are not having a good day today either. Black gold is heading for the biggest weekly loss in 2019. Has the support fallen out from below? Where can we expect the decline to stop?
Let’s take a closer look at the chart below (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Friday, May 24, 2019
Downward Reversal in Oil Is Knocking on the Door / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil hasn’t closed higher yesterday and the previous series of rallies appears to face stiff headwinds. Is this it, or can the oil bulls pull a rabbit out of their hats? After all, they’ve reversed Monday’s downswing already. Or does the prospect of wide spectrum U.S. - China uncertainties have the upper hand? It’s making itself heard across the board and crude oil is no exception. Let’s assess the technical picture now.
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Wednesday, May 22, 2019
Global Economic Tensions Translate Into Oil Price Volatility / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our continued efforts to alert and assist fellow traders to the incredible setups that are currently happening throughout the globe with regards to increased global economic tensions are starting to take root. We are hearing from our readers and follower and we love the comments we are receiving. Near April/May 2018, we started predicting that the end of 2018 and almost all of 2019/2020 were going to include incredible opportunities for skilled traders. We made these predictions at about the same time that we issued a series of incredible calls regarding the future market moves in 2018 & 2019.
Wednesday, May 22, 2019
Crude Oil, Hot Stocks, and Currencies – Markets III / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In our continued effort to help skilled traders/investors understand the future risks associated with geopolitical market turmoil, the EU Elections next week and the continued US/China trade war, this Part III of our Sector Rotation article will highlight certain sectors that we believe may continue to perform over the next 12 to 24+ months and help traders/investors survive any extended price volatility/rotation over that same time. Read Part I, and Part II.
Currently, the US stock market has weathered a bit of a jolt in terms of price rotation. After many stock indexes reached new all-time highs, the news of Iran Oil Sanctions, US/China trade talks failing and the political turmoil in DC as an incredible 2020 US Presidential election cycle heats up, investors are watching the markets for any signs of strength or weakness. Meanwhile, the US Dollar continues to strengthen against other global currencies in an incredible show of “King Dollar” strength and dominance. All of this plays into one of our favorite narratives that we started discussing over 30 months ago – the Global Capital Shift.
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Wednesday, May 15, 2019
Crude Oil Price Fails At Critical Fibonacci Level / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Crude Oil recently rallied up to the $63 level and failed. This level is a key Fibonacci price level based on our proprietary adaptive Fibonacci price modeling system. It represents a Fibonacci Long Trigger Level that would suggest that a new bullish price trend could setup if and when the price of Crude Oil rallies and closes above this level.
The fact that Crude Oil rallied above this level early on Monday, May 13, and failed to hold above this level suggests this is a failed price rally and a failed attempt to rotate higher. The failure of this price move suggests that Crude Oil may fall below current support, near $61, and begin a new downside price leg over the next 10+ trading sessions.
This Daily Crude Oil chart highlights the narrow price range, between $61 and $64.75, where a range of support and resistance levels are found with our proprietary Fibonacci modeling system. The fact that this failed price rally cleared the $63 level, then fell sharply afterward suggests that support for any upside price rally in Crude Oil is very weak. We would expect the price to rotate lower and retest the $61 level before breaking this level and moving much lower to find ultimate support.
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Wednesday, May 15, 2019
Crude Oil Bulls Attempt to Repair Yesterday’s Damage / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
We have seen a pretty sharp oil reversal yesterday. The U.S. session sent oil bulls packing. Not giving up, they’re attempting a comeback today. Geopolitical news to their rescue: the drone attacks on key Saudi pipelines. Emboldened by this tailwind, do the oil bulls stand a chance of reversing the tide of recent declines?
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Wednesday, May 08, 2019
Do the Crude Oil Bulls Have Any Aces Left Up Their Sleeves? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil has had an eventful session yesterday. It has closed the opening gap and the bulls have been building upon their gains till the session’s close. Earlier today however, the price appears to be rolling over and heading south. Is all hope for higher oil lost? The bulls have shown to be quite tireless. Can they pull a rabbit out of their hats shortly?
Let’s take a closer look at the chart below (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Sunday, May 05, 2019
Looking At Crude Oil Price Corrective Upswing, Is the Bottom In? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
It looks like crude oil is set for a sizable weekly decline. After yesterday’s plunge, the market looks to have stabilized today. But is it really so? In today’s analysis, we’re bringing you the details. We objectively reveal what to expect next. Either the bulls or the bears won’t like it. Who do you think it’ll be?
Let’s take a closer look at the chart below (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Wednesday, April 24, 2019
Can Saudi Arabia Still Sway The Oil Market? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter and OPEC's largest producer, has influenced the oil market and oil flows since the middle of the 20th century.
Shortly after the 21st century began, one of Saudi Arabia's key customers made its first steps toward becoming one of the Kingdom's main competitors on the global oil market: the United States began fracking for oil in the mid-2000s. By the end of the 2010s, the U.S. is now the world's biggest crude oil producer, having surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia to claim the crown.
Sure, Saudi Arabia is one of the most important factors in global crude trade and oil market participants are lapping up every word and hint from the top oil officials in the Kingdom.
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Monday, April 15, 2019
Oil Price May Be Setup For A Move Back to $50 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
US Gasoline prices have shot up 15% to 30% or more over the past 4 weeks as the Summer Blend hits the markets and consumers continue to stay shocked at the increase. In California, prices shot up from near $3 per gallon to over $4 a gallon over a 7-day span. Every year, when the Summer Blend of Gasoline hits the markets, we expect a price increase that is associated with this change. But this year, the price increase has really shocked consumers to the point that they are altering their travel plans and cutting extra spending in an attempt to deal with the new gasoline prices.
This data graph from the US Energy Information Administration shows just how dramatic the price increase has been over the past 3+ weeks.
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Wednesday, April 10, 2019
Smart Money Is Piling Into Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil prices jumped to five-month highs this week, pushed higher by a bullish cocktail of supply outages, geopolitical unrest and a sputtering shale sector.
The most recent factor is the sudden eruption of the long simmering feud in Libya between rival factions. The attack on Tripoli by the Libyan National Army (LNA), a militia led by Khalifa Haftar, led to a spike in oil prices on Monday as the market priced in the possibility of supply outages.
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Sunday, March 17, 2019
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
The oil bull still managed to score another day of gains yesterday. A meager advance but still an advance, one could say. And be forgiven, as they would not have had examined the full picture. Are we just teasing you now? Come on, there can’t be possibly more to the story... There is. The scenario that we wrote about exactly to the day two weeks ago, has come to fruition. The implications are far-reaching. Time to share.
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Friday, March 15, 2019
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
- There is a sense of triumphalism in the tag-line, “U.S.A. is now a net oil exporter”. Reminiscent of “Mission Accomplished”; first it’s not true, second; what’s hiding in the wings is sinister.
- In February, in the Permian, Initial Production net Legacy-Loss (IPnL), which measures change in production capacity, was down 42% on the peak in May 2018
- 98.5% of changes in IPnL can be explained by changes in trailing average oil price. That sounds blindingly obvious; but there’s a catch.
- Shale oil output-growth affects oil prices; so there’s negative feedback-loop. What happened was legacy-loss in shale caught up, shale is still a “swing producer”; but soon they will need $70 WTI.
- Ten years ago the Saudi’s said $70-to-$80 Brent was “fair”, that’s what the world could afford, and what producers needed to bring in new oil, they said. They may get that, and more, soon.
Saturday, March 02, 2019
Is the Worst Behind for Crude Oil Bears? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil made yesterday another hesitant move higher. Also yesterday, we mentioned here the saying regarding gravity. Sometimes, it takes patience for the underlying forces to win out. Or, doesn't the oil market rather remind you more of a coiled spring actually? Accordingly, what is the position favored most by the odds right now?
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Wednesday, February 27, 2019
The $32 Trillion Push To Disrupt The Entire Oil Industry / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Global oil and gas companies are increasingly facing an uphill battle as global warming policies are taking their toll. Most analysts and market watchers are focusing on peak oil demand scenarios, but the reality could be much darker. International oil companies (IOCs) are likely to face a Black Swan scenario, which could end up being a boon for state-owned oil companies (NOCs).
Increased shareholder activism, combined with global warming policies of institutional investors and NGOs, are pushing IOCs in a corner, constricting financing options for oil companies.
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Wednesday, February 06, 2019
Crude Oil – The Ground Is Starting to Shake / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Yesterday we witnessed a good attempt to move to the downside. The sellers were partially rebutted. How did the big picture stand the test of yesterday and what are we to do about it?
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Friday, February 01, 2019
Crude Oil – How Many Minutes to Midnight Before We Act? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Yesterday, some might have wondered where is the limit to the upswing in oil. It would be natural to expect it to catch up to e.g. gold and silver upswings. Would be, could be. We just saw something that made us act. Diligently, with foresight and confidence – when the odds are with us. It’s time to share it with you.
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Wednesday, January 30, 2019
Oil Majors Near Inflection Point As Spending Rises / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil prices are still down sharply from the highs of October 2018, but the industry may still increase spending this year. The cost of developing new projects might rise along with higher spending levels.
A survey of top industry executives by DNV GL suggests that capital spending on oil and gas could rise in 2019. Of the 791 senior professionals in the energy industry surveyed by DNV GL, 70 percent said they plan on either maintaining or increasing capex this year. That is up significantly from the 39 percent who said the same in 2017.
“Despite greater oil price volatility in recent months, our research shows that the sector appears confident in its ability to better cope with market instability and long-term lower oil and gas prices,” said Liv Hovem, the head of DNV’s oil and gas division, according to Reuters. “For the most part, industry leaders now appear to be positive that growth can be achieved after several difficult years.”
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Monday, January 28, 2019
Will Crude Oil Find Support Above $50? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recent global news regarding Venezuela, China, and global oil supply/production have resulted in the price of Oil pausing over the past few weeks near $53 to $55 ppb. We believe the continued supply glut and uncertainty will result in oil prices falling, briefly, back below $50 ppb before any new price rally begins. Our researchers at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com believe historical resistance near $54~55 is strong enough to drive prices lower before new momentum picks up for a renewed price rally.
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Friday, January 25, 2019
Saudi Arabia Warns: We’ll Pump The World’s Very Last Barrel Of Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Saudi Arabia isn’t buying the peak oil demand narrative.
OPEC’s largest producer continues to expect global oil demand to keep rising at least by 2040 and sees itself as the oil producer best equipped to continue meeting that demand, thanks to its very low production costs.
Saudi Arabia will be the one to pump the last barrel of oil in the world, but it doesn’t see the ‘last barrel of oil’ being pumped for decades and decades to come.
“I don’t see peak [oil] demand happening in 10 years or even by 2040,” Amin Nasser, president and chief executive officer of Saudi oil giant Saudi Aramco told CNN Business’ Emerging Markets Editor John Defterios on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos this week.
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Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Huge Backlog Could Trigger New Wave Of Shale Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The number of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) in the U.S. shale patch has skyrocketed by roughly 60 percent over the past two years. That leaves a rather large backlog that could add a wave of new supply, even if the pace of drilling begins to slow.
The backlog of DUCs has continued to swell, essentially uninterrupted, for more than two years. The total number of DUCs hit 8,723 in November 2018, up 287 from a month earlier. That figure is also up sharply from the 5,271 from the same month in 2016, a 60 percent increase. The EIA will release new monthly DUC data on January 22, which will detail figures for December.
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Friday, January 18, 2019
Crude Oil Price Will Find Strong Resistance Between $52~55 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our Adaptive Fibonacci modeling system is suggesting Crude Oil may have already reached very strong resistance levels just above $50 ppb. It is our opinion that a failed rally above $55 ppb will result in another downward price move where prices could retest the $42 low – or lower.
You can see from this Daily Crude oil chart that price has formed a consolidated price channel between $50 and $53 ppb. This price channel aligns with a November 2018 price consolidation zone. It is our belief that any advance above $55~56 ppb, will result in a new upward price move to $64-65 ppb.
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Friday, January 04, 2019
Oil Is At The Mercy Of Financial Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil prices regained more ground on Wednesday, pushed higher after equity markets rebounded from an initial selloff at the start of 2019 trading.
The price gains are not entirely convincing. WTI and Brent posted strong gains, each up more than 3 percent by midday in New York, but come largely after U.S. equity markets shook off an earlier bout of pessimism.
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Friday, December 07, 2018
These Oil Stocks Are a Ticking Time Bomb / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
I don’t blame you.The yields on energy master limited partnerships (MLPs) are very tempting.
If you’re not sure what these are, energy MLPs are companies that own the pipelines that transport oil and natural gas around the US.
And they often pay huge dividend yields. The top five oil MLPs have an average dividend yield of 5.3%. That’s more than twice the S&P 500 dividend yield of 1.9%.
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Tuesday, December 04, 2018
The Saudi Dilemma: To Cut Or Not To Cut / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
To cut and push up prices or not to cut and preserve market share, this is the question that Saudi Arabia is facing ahead of this year’s December OPEC meeting. It seems like just yesterday when OPEC met in 2016 and decided to cut production by 1.8 million barrels daily, including from Russia, to reverse the free fall of oil prices. At the time, it worked because everyone was desperate. Now, many OPEC members are both desperate while not yet recovered from the 2014 blow. Saudi Arabia is not an exception.
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Monday, December 03, 2018
Crude Oil After November’s Declines / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
November was the worst month for oil bulls since July 2016. Over the past few weeks, the price of black gold has dived deeply, sometimes dropping even under the barrier of $50. What impact did this price action have on the long-, medium- and short-term picture of the commodity?
Let's start today’s alert with the long-term chart (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Friday, November 30, 2018
What the Oil Short-sellers and OPEC Don’t Know about Peak Shale / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
A Black Swan is when something dramatic happens that most people did not expect, like when house prices went down, not up...remember that?
Last week on Bloomberg News, Javier Blas wrote of a new “Shale Boom” that could...create “OPEC’s Worst Nightmare”. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-21/opec-s-worst-nightmare-the-permian-is-about-to-pump-a-lot-more
That sentiment reflects a broad consensus of opinion that has driven oil prices down 30% in two months. The central theme of the article was that the spike in year-on-year change of U.S. production of “oil, condensate, and natural gas liquids”, to 3.0 million barrels per day (MBPD) in August 2018, was proof of shale-oil’s continuing resurgence.
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Why the Crude Oil Price Collapsed to $50 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
From a high of $77 barely 6 weeks ago the crude oil price has been on a relentless downwards slide, slicing through key support levels all the way to a new low for the year of just $50! A move that NO ONE saw coming! With the key triggering price point coming late October when the oil price failed to hold support at $64.
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Tuesday, November 20, 2018
Can We Expect A Major Rebound In Crude Oil Prices? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
After declining by more than 20 percent from the October peak, oil prices are showing some signs that they have now bottomed out.
WTI hit a low point at $56 per barrel on Wednesday and Brent hit a low just below $65 per barrel. Both crude benchmarks regained some ground at the end of the week, despite the huge increase in U.S. crude oil inventories. In fact, rising prices in the face of the 10-million-barrel increase in crude stocks suggests that oil may have already hit a bottom. “[Y]esterday’s price reaction to the US inventory data shows that negative news is now largely priced in,” Commerzbank said in a note. “This is the only way to explain why an increase in US crude oil stocks of a good 10 million barrels failed to put further pressure on prices.”
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Tuesday, November 13, 2018
Why the End of the Longest Crude Oil Bull Market Since 2008? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the past two years, crude oil has steadily advanced, supported by global recovery. But in just 10 days, oil has posted the longest losing streak since mid-1984 – thanks to overcapacity and the Trump trade wars.
Half a year ago, crude oil prices were expected to climb from $53 per barrel in 2017 to $65 per barrel by the year-end and to remain around that level through 2019. By mid-October, crude had soared to $75 and the rise was expected to continue.
Tuesday, November 13, 2018
Will Crude Oil Price Find Support Near $60? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team warned of this move in Crude Oil back on October 7, 2018. At that time, we warned that Oil may follow a historical price pattern, moving dramatically lower and that lows near $65 may become the ultimate bottom for that move. Here we are with a price below that level and many are asking “where will it go from here?”.
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Wednesday, November 07, 2018
Is Oil's Freefall Over? Here's a FreePass to Find Out NOW / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
Dear Investor,
While most traders have been watching the S&P, oil plunged 18% in October. In the process, crude broke below a key long-term trendline. You know what that means: It's an exciting potential opportunity.
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Tuesday, November 06, 2018
Positive Implications for Gold Miners if Crude Oil Breaks Down / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Gary_Tanashian
It’s an over obsessed upon commodity, previously hyped for its (Hubbert’s) “peak” status by “experts” like T Boone Pickens and a whole clown show of promoters amplified by the media at the time.
Now WTI Crude Oil has reached a thick resistance zone (as managed in NFTRH for the last couple of years) and may be breaking down from a peak of a whole other kind. Here is the monthly chart we use.
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Saturday, October 13, 2018
Next Points for Crude Oil Bears / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Paul_Rejczak
Thanks to yesterday’s session crude oil lost 3% and approached the previously-broken barrier of $70. In this area oil bears met several other short-term supports, but are they stable enough to stop the sellers in the coming days?
Let’s take a look at the charts below (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Wednesday, October 10, 2018
Oil Price Rally Boosts Electric Car Sales / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Tesla’s competition is about to get more crowded next year with many legacy automakers and luxury brands launching a record number of battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids.
All EV makers will have one common element that could help lift demand for battery vehicles—rising oil prices leading to fuel prices at four-year highs, which could turn consumers towards EVs.
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Tuesday, October 09, 2018
Will Crude Oil Follow Historical Patterns? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team, at Technical Traders Ltd., has been very interested in Oil recently as the current rally appears to have rotated lower near a top. Our predictive modeling systems, predictive cycle analysis and other tools suggest Oil/Energy may be setting up for a downward price trend. This may be an excellent opportunity for skilled traders to identify profitable trades as this trend matures.
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Tuesday, October 09, 2018
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2018 Update / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is an update to my crude oil price trend forecast for 2018. So firstly a recap of my forecast for for 2018 which since the start of this year has been for the oil price to target a trend to $80.
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Friday, October 05, 2018
Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
TREND CHANNELS - The oil price for the whole of the 2018 has been trading within the upper band of trend channel that extend towards a high of $80 by the end of 2018, which is the primary reason for my original forecast target.
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Monday, October 01, 2018
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2018 Current State / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here is an update to my crude oil price trend forecast for 2018.
Firstly a recap of my forecast for the crude oil price for 2018 which since the start of this year has been for the oil price to target a trend to $80.
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Wednesday, September 26, 2018
Crude Oil Price $100 Is A Distinct Possibility / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
An oil price spike is starting to look increasingly possible, with a rerun of 2008 not entirely out of the question, according to a new report.
The outages from Iran are worse than most analysts expected, and bottlenecks in the U.S. shale patch could prevent non-OPEC supply from plugging the gap. To top it off, new regulations from the International Maritime Organization set to take effect in 2020 could significantly tighten supplies.
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Tuesday, September 18, 2018
Omanization: a 20-year Process to Fight Volatile Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Ben_Jardine
The stark realisation that the oil industry, with its volatile fluctuations, is an unreliable source of income for the Sultanate of Oman, has encouraged its leaders in 1988 to introduce what is commonly referred to as the ‘Omanization’ of its economy. In short, this means that through its National Program for Enhancing Economic Diversification (Tanfeeth), the Omani government has decided to develop the following sectors: manufacturing, transport, logistics, and tourism. This they hope, will transform its economy from one that is less reliant on its oil reserves and expat workers, to one that is self-sufficient at its core.
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Tuesday, September 11, 2018
The Downside For Oil Price Is Limited / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
More than two weeks of nearly uninterrupted price gains for crude oil ended this week, with the rally running out of steam. The question is what happens next?
Oil prices posted steep losses just as the bulls were back on the march. WTI briefly topped $70 per barrel in recent days and Brent was flirting with $80. But the rally was kneecapped by a variety of factors, and it could be challenging to break above those key pricing thresholds in the near future.
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Thursday, September 06, 2018
Crude Oil Price Likely To Find Support In Uptrend / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I have focused my attention on the recent price rotation in the Crude Oil market. I believe the recent downside rotation in price, while technically still in a bullish trend, is an excellent opportunity for traders to identify entry positions for a potential price rally to levels near of above $70~71 ppb.
My proprietary price modeling systems and price cycle systems are clearly illustrating that Oil prices should find support, bottom and rotate higher within the next 5~7+ days. I rely on these proprietary indicators and modeling systems to help understand when opportunities exist in the markets. When I can determine that price is moving counter to a primary trend and creating what I call a “price anomaly”, where enhanced opportunity exists for a profitable outcome, I attempt to determine if this trigger warrants alerting our followers. In this case, I believe the opportunity for upside price action following this price rotation is exceptional.
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Friday, August 24, 2018
A Saudi-Iran Oil War Could Break Up OPEC / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
When OPEC and Russia shook on increasing crude oil production by a million barrels daily to stop the oil price climb that had begun getting uncomfortable for consumers from Asia to the United States, there was no sign of what was to come just two months later: slowing demand in Asia, ample supply, and a brewing price war between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
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Saturday, August 18, 2018
Why Oil Prices Fell -- Stockpiles or Price Pattern? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
You be the judge...
Let's cut right to the chart below. The shaded triangle highlights the dramatic price action in crude oil prices on August 15, when crude plummeted 3% to its lowest level in over nine weeks.
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Wednesday, August 15, 2018
Saudi Arabia And Iran Reignite The Oil Price War / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran is becoming increasingly evident in the oil pricing policies of the two large Middle Eastern producers. The two countries are currently reigniting the market share and pricing war ahead of the returning U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil.
Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest producer, has been boosting oil production to offset supply disruptions elsewhere, including the anticipated loss of Iranian oil supply after U.S. sanctions on Tehran return in early November. The Saudis are also cutting their prices to the prized Asian market to lure more customers as they increase supply.
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Wednesday, August 01, 2018
Coke, Meth And Booze: The Flip Side Of The Permian Oil Boom / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The fastest-growing oil region in the U.S. is fueling not only the second American shale revolution—it’s fueling a subculture of drug and alcohol abuse among oil field workers.
The Permian shale play in West Texas is once again booming with drilling and is full of oil field workers, some of which are abusing drugs and alcohol to help them get through long shifts, harsh working conditions, and loneliness and isolation.
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Sunday, July 29, 2018
Conflicting Views on Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Recent days were good for oil bulls. Thanks to their action, the price of the commodity came back to around $70 and one of the daily indicators even generated a buy signal. Did the outlook turn to bullish? In our opinion, it didn’t. Furthermore, it seems that a fresh July low is still ahead of us. Why? The answer is quite simple - an analogy to the past.
Saturday, July 28, 2018
Strong US Dollar Could Cap Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The strength of the U.S. dollar poses an obstacle to further gains in oil prices.
President Trump's trade war with China, which is still in its early stages, has already battered the yuan. The dollar has gained more than 8 percent against the Chinese currency since March. As Reuters points out, in dollar terms the price of Brent oil has climbed 9 percent this year, but in yuan terms oil is now nearly 14 percent more expensive.
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Tuesday, July 17, 2018
What Did Crude Oil - Platinum Link Tell Us Last Week? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
The first session of this week was undoubtedly dominated by the sellers. Thanks to their sharp attack, black gold lost over 4%, making oil bears’ short positions even more profitable. Will it still be possible to earn money on crude oil in the coming week?
Let’s examine the charts below to find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Tuesday, July 17, 2018
Crude Oil May Not Find Support Above $60 This Time / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Crude Oil has been a major play for some traders over the past few months. With price, rotation ranges near $5~$7 and upside pressure driving a price assent from below $45 to nearly $75 peaks. This upside price move has been tremendous.
Over the past few weeks, many things have changed in the fundamentals of the Oil market. Supply continues to outpace demand, trade tariffs and slowing global economies are now starting to become real concerns, foreign suppliers have continued to increase production, US Dollar continues to strengthen and social/political unrest is starting to become more evident in many foreign nations.
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Monday, July 09, 2018
Crude Oil Possibly Setting Up For A Big Downside Move / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has identified a potential major price rotation setup in Crude Oil that may be one of the biggest opportunities for traders in a long while. Traders need to be aware of this potential move because it could coincide with other news related to foreign markets/economies as well as supply/demand issues throughout the rest of this year.
Demand for Oil is tied to the economic activities throughout much of the globe. When demand for Oil is high, one can perceive the global economy to be performing well and consumer demand for oil-based products rather high. When demand for oil subsidies, it is usually due to economic constraints as a result of slower consumer and industrial demand. The only time demand for oil typically skyrockets are when massive supply disruption takes place or war breaks out.
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Friday, July 06, 2018
Crude Oil and Its Another Interesting Relationship / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Tuesday's unsuccessful attempt to break above upper borders of the rising trend channels cost oil bulls more than many buyers expected. Their weakness was quickly detected by therivals, who took control during yesterday's session. The effects of their attackare seen not only on the crude oil charts, because they also affected the pronunciation of our next interesting ratio. Is it possible that the relationship betweenblack gold and the general stock market will give us valuable tipson the future of light crude as it happened many times in the past?
Tuesday, July 03, 2018
Crude Oil – Precious Metals Link and Its Implications / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
In recent days, oil bulls have accustomed us to fresh peaks. However, when we look more closely at the volume, their actions lose some of the glow. When we add the picture, which emerges from the relationship between crude oil and precious metals, doubts about the strength of the rally are getting even bigger. Is it possible that this interesting link tells us more about the future of black gold?
Friday, June 29, 2018
Why the Saudis Won’t Prevent The Next Oil Shock / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Saudi Arabia is starting to panic, and is growing concerned that the growing number of supply disruptions around the world could cause oil prices to spike. Saudi Arabia is moving quickly to head off a supply crunch, aiming to dramatically ramp up production to a record high 11 million barrels per day in July, according to Reuters.
The increase, if it can be pulled off, would be an incredibly rapid ramp up in output, up more than 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) from May levels.
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Wednesday, June 20, 2018
Crude Oil Price May Have Turned Down for Good! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Enda_Glynn
Hi everyone,
Hope the day went well for you.
Tomorrow,
the big three central bank heads,
will open their mouths and potentially cause havoc!
I am on record with my recommendations for how central bank chair persons should be treated when entering office.
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Wednesday, June 20, 2018
The Fed Is Driving Down Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The U.S. dollar has jumped to its strongest level in nearly a year, raising questions about how a strong greenback could act as a drag on debt and oil demand in much of the world.
The U.S. Federal Reserve announced another rate hike a few days ago, which helped edge up the dollar to a new high for the year.
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Tuesday, June 19, 2018
Major Turnaround in Crude Oil’s Price / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil’s Friday’s huge daily decline was not followed by yet another daily slide, but by a profound reversal. The price has surely turned by 180 degrees, but can we say the same thing about the outlook for the following days?
No. The volume doesn’t support this outcome and as you’ve seen in the previous several days, indications and confirmations from volume are very important. In fact, the low volume was one of the key reasons that made us open the short position at $66.78 on Wednesday.
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Friday, June 15, 2018
Can Saudi Arabia Prevent The Next Oil Shock? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The ongoing speculation online about the future of cooperation between Russia and OPEC seems to be a little one-sided. The main point of discussion up until now has been the fact that, due to international pressure (such as Trump’s Twitter diplomacy, perceived Russian willingness to open up the taps and pressure from Asian consumers) Saudi Arabia will be willing to revoke its current production cut stance.
Current volatility in the global oil market is, according to most analysts, due to fears that markets are facing a severe threat. A doomsday scenario is being painted in the media which suggests that oil prices will collapse as Moscow and Riyadh allow for OPEC compliance to slip, and that a glut of Saudi crude will be hitting the market. This has been the leading theme in the last couple of days, after reporters stated that Moscow and Riyadh are ready to assist the market.
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Thursday, June 14, 2018
Crude Oil Price Targeting $58 ppb Before Finding Support / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
With the G7 meeting concluding and the world about to start reacting to what was said and what was heard, it is time to take a look at the Crude charts with our Advanced Fibonacci price modeling system.
Our research team, at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, believes Crude will continue to drift lower over the next few weeks testing the $60 ppb level before breaching this support level and ultimately targeting $58 or lower. Lacking a real resolution to the trade and other global issues, we believe continue global economic pressures will drive oil prices dramatically lower over time – at least through the Summer months.
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Friday, June 08, 2018
Crude Oil Bullish Weekly Reversal vs. Bearish Monthly Reversal / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil moved significantly lower after topping at long-term retracement levels and since the monthly decline took place on big volume (biggest in almost a year), the black gold should move lower. But instead of moving lower this week, it seems to be forming a weekly bullish reversal. The individual daily volume levels were not low this week, so if the bullish reversal does indeed form, we’ll have a quite reliable bullish signal. Will the monthly bearish sign be invalidated? Will crude oil rally shortly?
Saturday, June 02, 2018
Crude Oil Price Bulls’ Wishes vs. Reality / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Wednesday’s rally that followed Tuesday’s reversal gave hope for a sustainable move higher. But only to those, who focus on the daily price movement only, without taking bigger picture into consideration. As we explained last Friday, there were bearish implications of the weekly candlestick pattern even before it was completed. In the following analyses we wrote the same about the monthly candlestick and since May is over, the candlestick is completed, and we can say that our previous expectations were met. What do the more long-term patterns indicate for the crude oil’s future and how much can we trust the recent rally?
Thursday, May 31, 2018
Emerging Market Meltdown Could Undermine Oil Price Rally / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Saudi Arabia and Russia just destroyed the oil price rally, potentially putting an end to all the speculation about what the group might do next. But higher production doesn’t necessarily mean higher oil prices are entirely out of the question, and in fact, the oil market is still faced with a ton of uncertainty.
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Friday, May 25, 2018
Crude Oil: It’s Here! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
In the previous alerts we let you know how the situation in the crude oil was becoming increasingly bearish, but that it was not yet bearish enough to justify any action regarding the price. The risk was still too high to do so, and we explained that waiting for the confirmation was the preferable course of action. The confirmation has arrived.
Tuesday, May 22, 2018
How Close Are We to Oil Independence? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Rodney_Johnson
Almost two years ago, the Saudis acknowledged they had a problem. The price of oil was too low.The oil-rich county had fought a surge in supply from American frackers by opening the taps, and the move pushed oil prices to their lowest level in decades.
Even though the Saudis and other OPEC members still held onto market share, they were bleeding cash because their government budgets were modeled on oil closer to $80 than $30.
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Thursday, May 17, 2018
IEA: High Oil Prices “Taking A Toll” On Demand / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Geopolitics has taken over the oil market, driving oil prices up to three-year highs. The inventory surplus has vanished, and more outages could push oil prices up even higher. Yet, there are some signs that demand is starting to take a hit as oil closes in on $80 per barrel.
In the IEA’s May Oil Market Report, the agency said that OPEC might be needed to step in and fill the supply gap if a significant portion of Iran oil goes offline. Saudi Arabia suggested shortly after the U.S. announced its withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal that OPEC would act to mitigate any supply shortfall should it occur.
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Saturday, May 12, 2018
Trump’s Iran-Decision Did-not and Won’t Affect Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
:Unless U.S.A. decides to go to War to Impress Stormy Daniels.
- By some reports, President Trump’s Iran-decision caused oil prices to “jump 3%”. Actually that was intra-day; the change day-on-day was 1.7%. The probability the mini-jump was not caused by the announcement is 59%; since the null-hypothesis needs less than 5% to be called “statistically-significant”, that’s not. The probability is 86% if you do four-day changes, i.e. even less probable.
- The day after Benjamin Netanyahu made his presentation on Iran, oil prices dropped 2.8%; which, intriguingly, is “statistically significant” (P>[t]=0.0438*); perhaps the markets’ take; was that they figured the likelihood of an interruption in Iranian oil supplies, or a war, was less likely, after they heard the presentation?
Friday, May 11, 2018
Navigating The Bullish Crude Cycle / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Science_Investing
From A Technical Analysis PerspectiveCrude remains short-term bullish as long as the nearest WTI contract trades above the blue dotted horizontal support region.
Oil ran up and made higher highs inside the pale blue trend channel. The progress got confirmed by geopolitical newsflow. Moreover, the most important commodity price gained despite a stronger US dollar. A breakout above the January 2018 high got further traction after being retested at the end of April 2018. Oil prices surpassed the solid blue trendline spanning back to June 2016 this trading week. We asses that as a fake breakout as part of a leading diagonal. Oil prices are likely to correct into the 66.50-67.00 region before resuming the uptrend.
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Saturday, April 21, 2018
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi Arabia $80 ARAMCO Stock IPO Target / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The crude oil price started 2018 with a BANG rising from an opening $60 to a January peak of $67, a gain of 12% in less than 1 month! Whilst February saw the oil price give up all of Januarys gains by falling from $67 to $58 before recovering towards the top of the emerging $67 - $58 trading range for March which set the scene for the current rally to a 3 year high of $69. Whilst new has emerged that the Saudi's are actively pursuing lifting the oil price to at least $80 in support of their mega $1 trillion+ ARAMCO IPO.
Friday, April 20, 2018
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi's Want $100 for ARAMCO Stock IPO / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The crude oil price started 2018 with a BANG rising from an opening $60 to a January peak of $67, a gain of 12% in less than 1 month! Whilst February saw the oil price give up all of Januarys gains by falling from $67 to $58 before recovering towards the top of the emerging $67 - $58 trading range.
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Wednesday, April 18, 2018
The Bullish And Bearish Case For Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil prices could rise due to the “perfect storm of stagnant supply, geopolitical risk, and a harsh winter,” according to an April 12 note from Barclays.
Geopolitical events specifically could help keep Brent above $70 through April and May, which comes on the back of a substantial decline in oil inventories.
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Tuesday, April 17, 2018
Crude Oil Price As Bullish as it Seems? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
A fresh 2018 high, an unbroken resistance and negative divergence. What does this interesting mix tell us about oil bull’s strength and further increases?
Technical Analysis of Crude Oil
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Saturday, April 14, 2018
The Oil Trade May Be Coming Alive / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: WMA
In all asset classes, following a major bear market, prices tend to stumble along at depressed levels – sometimes for years. Negative sentiment permeates across all types of investors, from the short-term traders to long-term retail investors. Once everyone is convinced that the paradigm has changed for the asset and prices at depressed levels are the “new normal”, the seeds will have been sown for the next bull market.
Wednesday, April 04, 2018
Crude Oil Price Bears - Stay the Course / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
What a day! The beginning of the new quarter, the new month and the new week was undoubtedly the triumph of oil bears. Thanks to their attack crude oil lost almost 3% in one day, which was the biggest decline since weeks. What impact did this drop have on the short-term outlook? Where are the nearest supports? For these and other questions you will find answers in today's alert.
Tuesday, April 03, 2018
Crude Oil Price Rally Is Likely / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil prices seesawed at the start of the week before jumping close to multi-year highs on geopolitical concerns, with Brent hitting $70 and WTI at $65. However, geopolitical pressure is only able to influence oil prices to such a degree because the market is fundamentally getting tighter.
Ongoing declines in Venezuela and concerns about heightened tension between the U.S. and Iran have significantly raised the risk premium for oil, even as some short-term factors recently pushed up prices.
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Thursday, March 29, 2018
Oil Prices Vs. Production: See the "Elephant" Almost Everyone Ignores / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
If production drives prices, how does oil rise 14x when production trends sideways for 10 years?
There's a widespread assumption that supply and demand drive oil prices. Almost all economists base their oil forecasts entirely on this premise, and so do many speculators.
If the oil industry ramps up production and increases supply, economists expect a drop in oil prices. If production decreases, or some other factors hint at supply constraints, they anticipate a rise in oil's price.
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Wednesday, March 28, 2018
Petroyuan and Gold - The Single Biggest Change in Capital Markets of All Time / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Michael_J_Kosares
“China’s launch on Monday of its crude futures exchange will improve the clout of the yuan in financial markets and could threaten the international primacy of the dollar, argues a new report by Hayden Briscoe, APAC head of fixed income at UBS Asset Management. ‘This is the single biggest change in capital markets, maybe of all time,’ Briscoe said in a follow-up telephone interview.” – Kate Duguid, Reuters, 3-26-2018
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Friday, March 16, 2018
Crude Oil Price – Who Wants the Triangle? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Thursday crude oil wavered between small gains and losses, but finished the day only 23 cents above Wednesday closing price. Such small daily changes that we observe recently don’t look too encouraging for oil bulls or for the bears. However, to dispel boredom, we rummaged deeper in the charts and we found something that may interest both sides of the market’s battle. Curious?
Nevertheless, before we get to our little surprise, we would like to draw your attention to news from the IEA. Yesterday, the International Energy Agency said that global oil supply increased by 700,000 barrels per day from a year ago in the previous month. Additionally, we find out that supplies from producers outside of the OPEC will grow by 1.8 million bpd this year versus an increase of 760,000 bpd last year (mainly due to the rapidly growing production in the U.S.).
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Friday, March 02, 2018
Crude Oil Market Fears: War, Default And Nuclear Weapons / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The U.S. is one of the few areas of the world in which there is an energy investment boom underway, a development that could smooth out the uncertainties of geopolitical events around the world. At the same time, outside of the U.S., there is a deterioration of stability in many oil-producing regions, aggravating risks for both oil companies and the oil market, according to a new report.
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Friday, March 02, 2018
Crude Oil – It Smells Like… Profits / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Although oil bulls pushed black gold higher after yesterday market’s open, their triumph was very short-lived. Looking at the daily chart, it even tempts to say that their rally took place on an empty tank. Why? Because thanks to yesterday’s decline oil bears not only made short positions more profitable, but also gained next pieces to their puzzle. Let's check them together in today's alert.
Today's alert will start a little differently than usual, because we will take you on a small journey to the past and we’ll recall the quote from our Oil Trading Alert posted on Friday:
(…) In our opinion, the pro-bearish scenario is also reinforced by the fundamental factors. (…) EIA data showed that the U.S. output remains above 10 million barrels per day, which keeps domestic production on track to meet the earlier estimate for an increase to 11 million barrels per day in late 2018. If American drillers will not let down, the U.S. will overtake Russia in crude oil production and become the largest global supplier. Such development will likely not please Saudi Arabia and may thwart OPEC efforts to reduce black gold’s stockpiles, increasing worries over another crude oil glut. In such an environment oil bulls could have problems keeping the price not only above $60, but also above the psychological barrier of $50.
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Tuesday, February 27, 2018
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast for March 2018 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The crude oil price started 2018 with a BANG, rising from an opening $60 to a January peak of $67, that's a 12% gain in less than 1 month!
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Friday, February 23, 2018
Relationship Between Crude Oil and U.S. Dollar in February 2018 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Thursday, the price of black gold moved higher after the EIA weekly report showed an unexpected decline in crude oil inventories. Is this one bullish factor strong enough to push light crude higher in the following days? What did the buyers miss?
Yesterday, the Energy Information Administration reported that crude oil inventories declined by 1.6 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 16, beating expectations for a gain of around 1.8 million barrels. This first in four weeks decline in crude oil stocks in combination with a smaller than expected increase in gasoline inventories and drop in distillates supplies encouraged oil bulls to act. As a result, the price of black gold climbed to an intraday high slightly above $63, but did this increase change the short-term outlook for crude oil?
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Saturday, February 17, 2018
Crude Oil Prices: A Case of Dueling Narratives? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: WMA
There are indications Crude Oil prices are going lower. There are also indications that it’s going higher. Which narrative do you believe?
Oil Bears point to what they believe is over-supply caused by soaring US production, mostly from shale fields. With production increasing over +20% in less than two years, and drill rigs on the rise, the US now produces about as much Oil as the industry leaders, Saudi Arabia and Russia. According to the Oil Bears, the Saudi-Russia pact to restrain global production and export levels will break down in 2018, thereby leading to more supply than demand, causing lower prices. Moreover, the Bears are confident that alternative energy supply (e.g., solar/battery and uranium) will eventually win out as it is a cheaper and cleaner power source, and that Electric Vehicles are increasingly favored by consumers.
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Wednesday, February 14, 2018
Understanding Crude Oil Behavior / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Monday, oil bulls extended gains after Friday's invalidation of the breakout, which together with the buy signal generated by the Stochastic Oscillator suggest further improvement. A least at the first sight. But does watching the room through the keyhole give us a full picture of what's inside? We also think so, therefore, we invite you to analyze a broader picture of crude oil.
Let’s analyze the charts below (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Friday, February 09, 2018
Crude Oil $100 Price in 2019? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
The stock market is a dangerous place to be right now. Watching VIX spiked from 17 to 50+ then crashing back to 30 within two days can certainly cause a cardiac arrest or two. What’s even worse is that investors took this little dip as a buying opportunity throwing more good money at this deformed market. On Tuesday U.S. stocks rebounded to post the biggest rally in 15 months. We have discussed many times that stocks have a long way to go before any normalcy may be restored. On that note, let’s move to the oil/gasoline market instead.
Wednesday, February 07, 2018
Oil Prices Ravaged By Financial Turmoil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil prices fell back suddenly over the last few trading sessions, dragged down by some forces beyond the oil market.
The steady decline of the U.S. dollar has helped drive up crude prices for weeks, but that came to an abrupt halt last week. A rebound for the greenback led to a steep decline in oil prices on Friday.
At the same time, sudden turmoil in the broader financial system also bled over into the oil market. Volatility in the stock market flared up on Friday, sparking the sharpest single-day upheaval in years.
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Tuesday, January 30, 2018
Why Is The Shale Oil Industry Still Not Profitable? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Echoing the criticism of too much hype surrounding U.S. shale from the Saudi oil minister last week, a new report finds that shale drilling is still largely not profitable. Not only that, but costs are on the rise and drillers are pursuing “irrational production.”
Riyadh-based Al Rajhi Capital dug into the financials of a long list of U.S. shale companies, and found that “despite rising prices most firms under our study are still in losses with no signs of improvement.” The average return on asset for U.S. shale companies “is still a measly 0.8 percent,” the financial services company wrote in its report.
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Friday, January 26, 2018
What Could Push Crude Oil To $100? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
If anyone thought the latest oil market outlooks of the EIA and the IEA are upbeat, here’s an even more upbeat one from Energy Aspects: The consultancy expects crude demand this year to grow by 1.7 million bpd, and says Brent could touch above $100 a barrel in 2019.
According to Energy Aspects, the reason for the further jump in prices will be a drop in new production outside the U.S. shale patch. It’s a little hard to buy that, however, if one remembers that there is 1.8 million bpd in production capacity ready to be tapped again once OEPC and Russia taper their production cuts. That alone should take care of the demand growth that the consultancy predicts for this year. That is, unless it booms by 2 million bpd, which is the top of the range forecast by Energy Aspects. But even then, the U.S. and Russia alone could take care of it: The Russian state majors are itching to expand production in eastern Siberia.
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Monday, January 22, 2018
Who Will Take Control in Crude Oil Market? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Although the EIA weekly report showed that crude oil inventories dropped for a ninth straight week and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected, U.S. production outweighed positive news. But did yesterday price action change anything in the technical picture of black gold?
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Thursday, January 18, 2018
Crude Oil Sweat, Blood and Tears / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Tuesday, crude oil hit a fresh 2018 high of $64.89, but then reversed and declined very quickly, erasing most of Friday increase. What encouraged oil bears to act and how did this decline affect the short-term picture?
Yesterday, the Energy Information Administration said that U.S. oil output is expected to continue its rise to 6.55 million barrels per day (with production from shale rising by 111,000 bpd) in the coming month, which encouraged oil bears to act. As a reminder, before the Friday market closure, they received one more reason to act – the Baker Hughes report, which showed that the oil rig count jumped by 10 to 752 (to the highest level since the beginning of September 2017). What impact did the above-mentioned circumstances have on the daily chart of crude oil?
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Tuesday, January 16, 2018
Crude Oil is Starting 2018 Strong but there's Undeniable Risk to the Downside / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
Crude oil is starting out strong in 2018 as both the international Brent benchmark and the West Texas Intermediate continue to book price gains. The gains in crude oil prices this year is riding the waves of the uptrend in oil prices that began in 2017. Now, the U.S. West Texas Intermediate is trading up around $63.57 per barrel and the Brent crude is trading up around $69.20 per barrel.
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Thursday, January 11, 2018
Why Oil Should Be Supported in Weekly Chart / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
Hello fellow traders, in this blog post, we will discuss oil in a more bigger picture.
In the chart below, you can see crude oil futures on the weekly chart.
From the 02/08/2016 low, we can clearly see that the market has a potential 5 swing incomplete bullish sequence. It seems like that it is still in the fifth swing. The weekly target for us is between 68.53-86.82. Please note a 5 swing sequence is different than 5 waves impulse. Overall, we can conclude that we need more upside in oil and we suggest members to buy the instrument in 3-7-11 swings to the upside.
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Wednesday, January 10, 2018
Outlook for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Donald_W_Dony
Traders for Light crude oil continue to see higher price levels over the near term. Front-month futures prices reflect their bullish outlook (chart 1).
The expectation is for $63 to $65 per barrel by late Q1.
The one caveat is that U.S. production appears set to explode later this year.
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Monday, January 01, 2018
Crude Oil Achieves $60 Forecast Expectations for 2017, $80 Next? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Bullish commodity traders and investors in the likes of oil and gold also saw strong positive returns for the year as Oil ended at its high for the year of $60 and Gold at $1310 both inline with my bullish expectations for these commodities for 2017.
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Monday, December 18, 2017
Who Knows What Will Black Gold Do in Coming Week? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Thursday, crude oil moved a bit higher as oil investors turned their attention to the North Sea supply disruption. Although the price of black gold increased, the technical picture of the commodity doesn’t bode well for oil bulls. Why? We invite you to check our Oil Trading Alert. Have a nice read.
Yesterday, crude oil came back above $57 as oil investors focused on the Forties pipeline, which carries North Sea oil to Britain. Nevertheless, we should keep in mind that the above-mentioned disruptions will physically mostly affect the North Sea region. In other words, we think that the shale drilling and the last week increase in the U.S. production (which approached the output levels of top producers - Russia and Saudi Arabia) are more important for the price of light crude. Therefore, in our opinion, it is worth waiting for today's Baker Hughes report before we get excited about yesterday's increase and its “bullish” implications. Having said that, let’s examine the technical picture of crude oil (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Thursday, December 14, 2017
WTI Crude Oil Elliott Wave Analysis / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Science Investing writes:
Short Term Price Trend
WTI crude oil started a bullish trend in June 2017. We forecast further upside in the crude oil complex.
For the past month we’ve witnessed a sideways movement in the WTI. It may have traced out a triangle pattern. The move from the 24th of November top looks complex, which is typical for a C-wave of a triangle. Triangles typically resolve into the direction of the greater trend. Hence we forecast price action to the upside short term.
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Thursday, December 07, 2017
The One Oil Market Indicator OPEC Must Watch / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
“We will not let go of our current approach until we reach a balanced market,” Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih said Monday at a news conference in Riyadh.
OPEC ended months of speculation last week when it decided to extend its production cuts through the end of 2018, easing concerns that the limits would be lifted before the oil market was ready. But while it put some uncertainty to rest, the next question is what OPEC does when the oil market becomes “balanced”? What is the exit strategy?
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Thursday, December 07, 2017
Crude Oil, Oil Stocks and Invalidation of Breakouts / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Tuesday, crude oil wavered between small gains and losses, but finally closed another day under the upper border of the short-term rising trend channel. Will this show of oil bulls’ weakness trigger further deterioration in the coming days? Will the relationship between black gold and oil stocks give us more clues about future moves?
Wednesday, December 06, 2017
Crude Oil and Negative Divergences / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Friday, crude oil increased and approached the November peak, but did this increase change anything in the broader perspective? Is it possible that the non-USD chart of crude oil give us more clues about black gold future moves?
Tuesday, December 05, 2017
Geopolitical Risk Isn’t Driving Rising Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
By GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND XANDER SNYDER : At the end of October, Brent crude prices crossed $60 per barrel for the first time in two years. They peaked at around $64.
Experts explained the spike with vague references to “geopolitical risk,” without really detailing what those risks entailed. Such explanations are not wrong, but they are careless.
A proper geopolitical risk assessment goes beyond vague wording. It contains a deep understanding of relevant economic, political, and military factors.
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Wednesday, November 29, 2017
The Oil Information Cartel Is (Finally) Broken / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
By Keith Schaefer : The below article was written by Keith Schaefer of Oil and Gas Investments Bulletin
A determined James Stafford of OilPrice.com just busted wide open an oil industry information cartel that has existed for decades.
Most investors look at WTI and Brent prices at Bloomberg or CME Futures, and figure the oil price is in the public domain. You would be about 2 percent correct, because there are hundreds of different grades of oil, and hubs where it is bought and sold. And they all have different prices.
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Tuesday, November 28, 2017
Tech Breakthrough Could Transform The Oil Sector / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
...
Monday, November 27, 2017
OPEC Will Extend The Production Cut / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
There will be an OPEC deal extension—no matter the public tussling between opposing forces in the industry cartel—if the world's largest oil producers are really determined to end the supply glut.
A failure to agree on the market remediation would cause oil prices to plummet immediately, forfeiting any gains that have been made in the last year.
Saudi Arabia needs $60 per barrel for its Aramco initial public offering to be a success in the second half of next year. It plans to sell just five percent of its prized company in the largest IPO in financial history, but a low price could force the country to sell a larger share, siphoning off government revenues at a time of strained budgets.
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Monday, November 20, 2017
Crude Oil – General Market Link / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Thursday, the overall situation in crude oil hasn’t changed much as the commodity wavered around the January peak. Will the relationship between black gold and the general market give us more clues about future moves?
Crude Oil’s Technical Picture
Let’s examine the technical picture of the commodity (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Friday, November 17, 2017
Crude Oil – Gold Link in November 2017 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
In recent weeks, it was hard to avoid the topic of crude oil, turning on the TV or opening a newspaper. Developments in the Middle East, escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the upcoming meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC ministers as well as the Baker Hughes reports, crude oil and its products inventories were mainly in the interest of investors.
Since our last Oil Investment Update, light crude extended gains and hit fresh 2017 highs. Black gold’s rally, which began in early October, has been mainly driven by growing indications that the crude market was finally starting to rebalance and hopes that the OPEC cuts agreement would be extended beyond March 2018.
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Tuesday, November 14, 2017
Is Peak Permian Only 3 Years Away? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The world’s hottest shale basin, the Permian, is leading the second U.S. wave of tight oil production growth and will continue to do so for years to come, all analysts say.
However, signs have started to emerge that the relentless intensification of drilling leads to diminishing returns, Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said in an article this week. Pumping twice as much sand as usual into Permian wells and drilling longer laterals doesn’t deliver commensurate volumes of oil, Flowers notes.
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Friday, November 10, 2017
Oil markets turn bullish with shift to backwardation / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
This week both Brent Crude and WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) made a new price high in more than 2 years with Brent Crude rising to $64 per barrel and WTI to $57 per barrel. These price gains come before the OPEC’s meeting later this month on Nov 30. In the past two years, OPEC has imposed production cuts in its member countries in order to remove excess inventory and halt the price drop. In their last meeting on May, the cartel agreed to extend 1.8 million barrel a day cuts into the first quarter of 2018.
Wednesday, November 08, 2017
How Much is Too Much: Oil’s Upside Price Target / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil’s price continues to soar in a sharp manner, but no asset can move in a straight line without periodic corrections so even if crude oil’s price was about to rally tens of dollars (which doesn’t appear so likely to be seen this year, but that is a discussion for a different day), one should still expect it to form local tops along the way. Where will crude oil top and where can it provide us with a promising trading opportunity?
Friday, October 27, 2017
Bullish Opportunity in Crude Oil - Watch Out! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Enda_Glynn
My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $70
Wednesday, October 25, 2017
The 5 Countries That Could Push Oil Prices Up / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil prices appear to be stuck in the $50s per barrel, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t serious supply risks to the market.
An unexpected disruption could occur at any moment, as has happened in the past, leading to a sudden and sharp jump in prices. Geopolitical tension has been largely irrelevant since the collapse of oil prices in 2014, but it’s making a return now that cracks have emerged in some key oil-producing nations. The threat of an outage will carry more weight as the oil market tightens.
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Tuesday, October 24, 2017
Crude Oil – Major Resistances Hold / Currencies / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Friday, crude oil bounced off session’s low and closed the previous week slightly below $52. Did it change anything in the short term?
Crude Oil’s Technical Picture
Let’s examine the charts below (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Monday, October 09, 2017
If 'Bottoming Pattern' Develops, Oil Bear Market May Be Over / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the oil and gas markets.
$OSX is on a major sell signal.
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Thursday, October 05, 2017
Electric Cars Oil Paradigm Shift Dead Ahead / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Spock
The Chinese are holding their next national congress assembly from 18th October. This is a major event where macro policy for China is agreed and implemented. On the agenda will be the electrification of national road transport, with a plan to be all electric by 2050. This will achieve two objectives: Reduce pollution in the major cities and to be the global leader in the electric vehicle (EV) technology, and associated technologies. The Chinese are also building the infrastructure around the concept, including a huge electric grid upgrade across the country over the next 10 years, to cope with the additional load.
Tuesday, October 03, 2017
Will Crude Oil Drop under $50 in Coming Week? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Although the price of black gold increased a bit on Friday, the commodity closed the whole week below important resistance lines and invalidated earlier breakouts. What does it mean for crude oil?
Crude Oil’s Technical Picture
Let’s take a closer look at the charts below and find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Tuesday, September 12, 2017
Crude Oil Price Invalidated Breakout – What’s next? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Friday, crude oil moved sharply lower and lost over 3% after investors digested the EIA report and reacted to the increase in crude oil inventories. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude invalidated the earlier breakout above the resistance area and slipped well below $48. What does it mean for the commodity?
Thursday, September 07, 2017
Hurricane Harvey’s Short-Term Impact May Be Higher Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
Harvey hit hard the heart of the US oil industry.
So far, it has shut down 11.2 percent of US refining capacity (about one-third of all US refining capacity is in Texas’ Gulf Coast) and roughly 25 percent of US oil production from the Gulf of Mexico (accounting for about 20 percent of US crude production). It has also closed all ports along the Texas coast.
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Wednesday, September 06, 2017
How EIA Guestimates Keep Crude Oil Prices Subdued / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The EIA has once again undercut its previous estimates for U.S. oil production, offering further evidence that the U.S. shale industry is not producing as much as everyone thinks.
The monthly EIA oil production figures tend to be more accurate than the weekly estimates, although they are published on several months after the fact. The EIA just released the latest monthly oil production figures for June, for example. Meanwhile, the agency releases production figures on a weekly basis that are only a week old – the latest figures run up right through August.
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Friday, August 25, 2017
Crude Oil – Declining Inventories vs. Climbing Production / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Wednesday, light crude gained 1.21% after the EIA weekly report showed declines in crude oil and gasoline inventories. As a result, the black gold came back above the lower border of the trend channel, but can we trust this increase?
Thursday, August 24, 2017
The Next Oil Price Spike May Cripple The Industry / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Two diametrically opposed views dominate the current debate about where the oil price is heading. On the one hand, there is the view that the price of oil will be "lower for longer", or even "lower forever", as the electrification of transport will eat away at oil demand more and more while, at the same time, technological innovation (shale in particular) will greatly increase economically recoverable resources. On the other hand, however, there is the view that the price of oil is set to explode, primarily due to underinvestment in the upkeep of brownfields, development of greenfields, and exploration for new resources.
Saturday, August 19, 2017
EIA Weekly Report and Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Although the EIA weekly report showed a larger-than-expected decline in crude oil inventories, the price of the commodity declined sharply after news that U.S. crude oil production increased. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude lost 1.62% and closed the day under important support. What does it mean for the black gold?
Yesterday, the Energy Information Administration reported that crude oil inventories dropped by over 8.9 million barrels in the week ended Aug 11, easily beating expectations of a draw of around 3 million barrels. Despite these bullish numbers (and the fact that it was the seventh straight week of declines in crude oil inventories), the report also showed that gasoline inventories rose by 22,000 barrels and distillate stockpiles rose by 702,000 barrels, missing analysts’ forecasts of a draw. On top of that, the EIA also showed that crude oil production increased to 9.502 million barrels per day, which renewed worries over the supply glut and pushed the price of light crude below $47 and important support. What does it mean for the black gold?
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Friday, August 11, 2017
Crude Oil Price Precious Metals Link in August / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
In the previous month crude oil gained almost 9% as declines in crude oil, gasoline and distillates inventories continued to support the price of the commodity. In that environment light crude climbed above the psychologically important barrier of $50 and closed July above it. Despite this bullish development, the price of the black gold slipped below it at the beginning of August. Is this just a bigger pullback or the first sign of a longer correction? Is it possible that the oil-to-gold and oil-to-silver ratios give us more clues about crude oil future moves?
Tuesday, August 08, 2017
Crude Oil Price Important Levels to Watch / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Friday, light crude moved higher and gained 1.12%, which resulted in a comeback above the previously-broken 200-day moving average. Is it enough to encourage oil bulls to act in the coming week?
Wednesday, August 02, 2017
This Oil Price Rally Has Reached Its Limit / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Last week, crude oil rallied the most so far this year, gaining more than 8 percent, or $4 per barrel. Oil traders are much more optimistic than they were just a month ago, and the market is on the upswing. However, the rally could run out of steam in the not-so-distant future, a familiar result for those paying attention to the oil market in the last few years.
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Tuesday, August 01, 2017
Crude Oil – Gold Link in July / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Friday, crude oil moved higher and hit a July peak supported by a weakening U.S. dollar and bullish Wednesday’s EIA weekly report. As a result, the black gold climbed above the 200-day moving average, but is it enough to trigger a rally above $50?
Monday, July 31, 2017
... / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
....
Saturday, July 29, 2017
Chinese Leverage To Kill Petro-Dollar / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The Chinese Govt is greatly irritated by the requirement to use USDollars in payment for crude oil in the global market. The Beijing officials finally have some leverage in arranging for a major deal to pay for crude oil in RMB currency, their Yuan. The negotiations have been in progress for a couple months. The development is not covered well in the financial press, not even in the alternative media. It will happen, just a matter of time. Its effect will be far reaching and likely devastating.
Thursday, July 27, 2017
Is Big Oil planning its Funeral by ignoring the obvious? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Sol_Palha
Many of the reports published that cover oil consumption and how quickly consumers will embrace Electric Vehicles (EV) paint a far rosier outlook for the future of oil than the facts dictate. The reason is simple; most of these reports tend to be written or sponsored by big oil and so they tend to be biased. We are not stating that this is the end of oil, but its glory days are probably behind it. One thing is obvious; the peak oil theory experts are and were always full of rubbish. In fact, we penned several articles over the years covering this issue the latest of which was titled “peak oil debunked”. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 27, 2017
Will Crude Oil Extend Gains? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Tuesday, crude oil extended gains and hit a fresh July high, but will we see further rally in the coming days?
Crude Oil’s Technical Picture
Let’s take a closer look at the charts and find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Friday, July 21, 2017
“Dirty, Difficult, And Dangerous”: Why Millennials Won’t Work In Oil Industry / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
By Tsvetana Paraskova : Like many industries today, the oil industry is trying to sell its many job opportunities to the fastest growing portion of the global workforce: Millennials. But unlike any other industry, oil and gas is facing more challenges in persuading the environmentally-conscious Millennials that oil is “cool”.
During the Super Bowl earlier this year, the American Petroleum Institute (API) launched an ad geared toward Millennials, who now make up the largest generation in the U.S. labor force.
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Sunday, July 16, 2017
The Technical Failure That Could Clear The Oil Glut In A Matter Of Weeks / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
OPEC exports have come under pressure this week from technical threats to oil fields, with Saudi Arabia’s Manifa problems grabbing the headlines.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser, while addressing the World Petroleum Congress in Istanbul, stated that the outlook for oil supplies is “increasingly worrying”, due to a loss of $1 trillion ($1000 billion) in investments last year. The skepticism shown by a majority of financial analysts and oil commentators about the real threat to global oil (and gas) production volumes was countered by the news that the production at Saudi Aramco’s main offshore oil field, Manifa, has been hit by technical problems. News sources reported that the output from Saudi Aramco's massive Manifa oilfield has been hit by a technical problem.
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Thursday, July 06, 2017
Don’t Hold Your Breath For Deeper OPEC Oil Cuts / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The rally in oil prices over the past two weeks came to a halt on Wednesday on news that OPEC is actually exporting more oil than previously thought.
A month ago, oil prices appeared to be higher than they should have been, with weak demand, elevated inventories, and a recognition that the nine-month OPEC extension would be inadequate to balance the market. Oil sold off and dropped to the mid-$40s and below. Oil traders then bought on the dip, and bid prices back up over the past two weeks. Now, prices again look like they could be reaching an upper limit.
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Friday, June 30, 2017
How High Could Crude Oil Price Go? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Wednesday, the black gold gained 1.13% after encouraging the EIA weekly report. As a result, light crude climbed to the previously-broken lower border of the trend channel, but closed the day below it. Will we see further improvement in the coming days?
Although yesterday’s EIA weekly report showed that crude oil inventories rose by 118,000 barrels in the previous week (missing expectations of a draw), the report also showed that gasoline inventories, dropped by 894,000 barrels (beating analysts’ forecasts), while distillate stockpiles declined by 223,000 barrels and beat expectations of a rise of 453,000 barrels.
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Thursday, June 29, 2017
Is A Big Move In Oil Prices Due? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
In options trading, a straddle is literally a sit-on-the-fence strategy. By purchasing a put and a call at the same strike (price of underlying commodity) for the same time period, an investor isn’t making a conventional directional bet; rather the investor is looking for a big move either up or down. The rub is that the big move must be greater than the sum of the two option premia or the bet goes south. But that is in the nature of the trade.
Wednesday, June 28, 2017
Crude Oil Sinks 20%: Why "Oversupply" Isn't the Half of It / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
Oil prices have defied bullish efforts to curb oversupply. Here's our take on why.
I have a friend... let's call him Larry. Let's just say, Larry is not a fan of taking risks. He likes his reflexes fast, his cars slow, and his financial markets secure for the long haul.
So, when Larry called me up at the beginning of this year to say he's boarding the highly-volatile crude oil market, I was appropriately stunned. But here's the thing. He was still being "wary Larry," meticulously weighing the risks. It just so happens they seemed to pale in comparison to the overwhelming rewards.
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Tuesday, June 27, 2017
Crude Oil In A New Bear Market? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The newest bear market is in crude oil. The definition of a bear market is when an ‘asset class’ is down more than 20% from its recent high: (Bear Market Rally Definition Investopedia). It has been more than five years since the market fell so hard so fast from its’ high. Two months later, it was even lower. During the past 20 years, the SPX has struggled when oil fell into a bear market!
Tuesday, June 27, 2017
Is There Still Hope For Higher Oil Prices? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil prices have cratered in recent weeks, dipping to their lowest levels in more than seven months and any sense of optimism has almost entirely disappeared. All signs point to a period of “lower for longer” for oil prices, a refrain that is all too familiar to those in the industry.
WTI dipped below $44 per barrel on Tuesday, and the bearish indicators are starting to pile up.
Libya’s production just topped 900,000 bpd, a new multi-year high that is up sharply even from just a few weeks ago. Libyan officials are hoping that they will hit many more milestones in the coming months. Next stop is 1 million barrels per day (mb/d), which Libya hopes to breach by the end of July.
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Friday, June 23, 2017
Crude Oil, Fresh Lows and Support Zone / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Wednesday, the black gold moved lower once again after government data showed an increase in crude oil production, which offset a decline in crude oil and gasoline inventories. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude hit a fresh 2017 low. What’s next for the commodity?
Let’s take a closer look at the charts and find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Wednesday, June 21, 2017
This Chart Proves That Low Oil Prices Can’t Stop US Shale Oil Surge / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
By Geopolitical Futures, Mauldin Economics : The US has benefited from the shale revolution more than any other country. Not only does it have vast shale formations, most of its wells are located within its territory. That means producers don’t have to compete for jurisdiction or share their profits.
Shale oil is enmeshed in shale rock, which is located thousands of feet beneath the Earth’s surface and is generally less permeable than other rock types—making deposits more difficult to access.
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Tuesday, June 20, 2017
CRUDE OIL UPDATE- “0.30 risk is cheap for changing implication!” / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Stephen_Cox
Here are 5 charts of WEEKLY CRUDE OIL, telling their interesting MRI 3D story (TIME, PRICE and DEPTH of 4 chart frames) on MAJOR WEEKLY TURNS. Some of these examples presented potentially low risk to high reward implications. The latest example was presented by CRUDE ADC (Daily) CLQ 17 (44.33) Monday.
Tuesday, June 20, 2017
Crude Oil Verifies Price Breakdown – Or Is It Something More? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Friday, the black gold gained 1.15% and climbed to the previously-broken lower borer of the trend channel. Is this a verification of the earlier breakdown or something more?
Thursday, June 15, 2017
Charts That Explain Why The US Rule Oil Prices Not OPEC / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : There’s no end in sight to slumping oil prices. That’s good news for consumers, but a dire trend for major oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia. And now, rising US oil production and exports are contributing to the slump.
Last week, oil prices reached new lows for 2017, with Brent crude dipping below $48 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate dipping below $46. The drop has been attributed to an unexpected increase in US crude inventories.
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Friday, June 02, 2017
Has Permian Crude Oil Productivity Peaked? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The U.S. shale industry might have just received a huge windfall with the nine-month extension of the OPEC cuts. Shale output was already expected to come roaring back this year, but the extension of the cuts provides even more room in the market for shale drillers to step into.
The sky is the limit, it seems. However, there are growing signs that the U.S. shale industry could be reaching the end of the low-hanging fruit. Or, more specifically, drilling costs are starting to rise and the enormous leaps in production that can be obtained by simply adding more rigs also appears to be running into some trouble.
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Thursday, June 01, 2017
How Low Could Crude Oil Price Go? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Although crude oil climbed above the level of $50 yesterday, this improvement was very temporary and the black gold closed the day below this barrier. In this way light crude invalidated the earlier breakout, which will likely trigger further declines. How low could the commodity go in the coming days?
Monday, May 29, 2017
The Vienna Deal: Only Temporary Relief in Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Dan_Steinbock
The Vienna agreement among OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers will extend oil cuts by nine months. After the deal, oil price plummeted by about 5 percent. Far more is needed to subdue new economic uncertainty and market volatility.
Among the oil insiders, the decision to extend oil production cuts was seen as a done deal well before last week's Vienna meeting. But as I have argued in the past few years, investors seek assurances of longer production cuts. That is vital in an era of huge energy overcapacity.
Monday, May 22, 2017
What an America First Trade Policy Could Mean for the US Dollar / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
JACOB L. SHAPIRO : It was only a few months ago that OPEC, once the de facto arbiter of oil markets, seemed to have a plan to inflate the price of oil: The cartel, along with several non-OPEC members, agreed in December to cut production by roughly 1.2 million barrels per day.
And for the first quarter of 2017, OPEC largely made good on its pledge. It produced 1.1 million fewer barrels of oil per day in the first quarter of 2017 than it did in the final quarter of 2016. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, accounted for 55% of the cuts.
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Thursday, May 18, 2017
Here’s The Truth About Russia’s OPEC Crude Oil Cuts / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
By Geopolitical Futures : In December 2016, Russia joined OPEC in a pledge to cut oil production by roughly 1.2 million barrels per day.
And for the first quarter of 2017, OPEC largely made good on its pledge. It produced 1.1 million fewer barrels of oil per day in the first quarter of 2017 than it did in the final quarter of 2016.
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Monday, May 15, 2017
Crude Oil Price Correction / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Ed_Carlson
Crude gained $1.62/bbl. last week and closed at 47.84 but still below the 200-dma. BWI (bandwidth indicator) fell in non-confirmation of the rally.
Support is at 45.25. I suspect we will see a run to the 200-dma at 49.00 prior to new lows in crude however, the detrended oscillator is overbought warning of a pullback early this week.
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Friday, May 12, 2017
Will Crude Oil Stocks Breaks above Medium-term Resistance Line? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
In recent weeks crude oil came back below the barrier of $50, which triggered declines and resulted in a drop to almost six-month lows. Despite this move, oil bulls pushed the commodity higher, which resulted in an invalidation of the breakdowns under important support levels. What happened at the same time with oil stocks? Will we see higher values of the XOI in the coming weeks?
Let’s jump right into charts (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com) and find out what can we infer from them about future moves.
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Thursday, April 20, 2017
2 Choke Points That Threaten Oil Trade Between Persian Gulf And East Asia / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : The flow of international trade has always been subject to geopolitical risk and conflicts. At all stages of the supply chain, trade inherently faces challenges posed by the geopolitical realities along a given route.
Some routes are more perilous and harder to navigate than others. One such trade route is the maritime path for transporting oil from Persian Gulf exporters to East Asian consumers. This route faces two major choke points that are unavoidable given geographic constraints.
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Tuesday, April 18, 2017
Plungers Big Trade - The Oil Short / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Plunger
The big trade of this year positions oneself for the upcoming US recession. In speculating and investing if one can get the main concept right everything else falls into place. Various trades will branch off from this theme. The trade is not priced into the market at all since we are betting against the accepted narrative. We can use various proxies to play the trade, as just about anything economically sensitive may qualify. Base metal producers, car companies, sub prime financiers, retail establishments, the list goes on. The main vehicle I have chosen to execute the trade is the oil price. I have chosen this because both fundamentals and technicals indicate to me it is over priced and due for a fall. It trades deep and has a record of falling under distressed economic conditions.
"All that we see or seem is but a dream within a dream." - Edger Allan Poe
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Tuesday, April 18, 2017
What Bullish Sentiment Means for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Ed_Carlson
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts a reversal in the oil markets and outlines his strategy.
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Monday, April 17, 2017
History of the Post WWII Crude Oil Price From a Technical Perspective / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Plunger
This is part I of a 3-part series introducing Plunger's "Trade of the Year". This section gives a review of the oil price from 1946 to present explaining the essential forces which powered its price through various bull and bear markets. It explains how we ended up where we are today in the oil market. Part II will explore the macro forces driving today's economy which lays the groundwork for introducing my trade of the year in part III.
To acquire a broader view of oils path over the past century I highly recommend the following resources on the oil market. Daniel Yergin's "The Prize" is an in-depth review of the history of oil up to the First Gulf war. It is indispensable in understanding the growth of the industry. Other books provide entertaining color to the industry by reviewing the swashbuckling nature of the early players who formed the industry as independents. I recommend "The Big Rich" by Bryan Burrough and JP Getty's autobiography "The Way I See It". Finally, David Stockman's "The Great Deformation" is essential reading as it corrects all the false economic narratives of the past which have been masquerading as truth.
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Friday, April 14, 2017
Supply Crunch Or Oil Glut: Investment Banks Can't Agree / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
In recent years, U.S. shale has thrown in another unknown in the mix of factors driving the price of oil. This year, shale output forecasts combine with OPEC's production cuts, geopolitical factors, and unexpected outages to further complicate supply/demand and oil price forecasts by Wall Street's major investment banks.
The biggest banks remain bullish on oil prices, expecting moderate price gains by the end of the year, even after last month WTI prices dropped below $50 for a couple of weeks.
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Wednesday, April 05, 2017
When Will Russia Run Out Of Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
On a global level, 2015 and 2016 marked the lowest level of new conventional oil discoveries since 1952. In 2016, only 3.7 billion barrels of conventional oil were discovered, roughly 45 days of global crude consumption or 0.2 percent of global proved reserves. Globally, exploratory drilling fell by almost 20 percent in 2015 and fell even further in 2016. Russia’s exploration activities, which were hit not only by plummeting oil prices but also by a targeted sanctions regime, suffered a double blow during this period. In 2015, only seven new hydrocarbon discoveries were made in Russia, three of them in the Baltic Sea. In 2016, oil and gas companies in Russia discovered 40 prospective fields, however, the 3P reserves of the largest among them, Rosneft’s Nertsetinskoye, amounted to 17.4 million tons. This stands in stark contrast with pre-sanction period achievements, for instance, 2014’s largest find, Pobeda, is believed to contain 130 million tons of oil and 0.5TCm of gas.
Friday, March 31, 2017
There Is No Such Thing As Peak Oil Demand / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Notwithstanding that oil demand has increased for over 150 years, it will eventually stop increasing. If oil demand were to reach an actual peak, then the top might be easier to predict. As it stands, the forecast models of demand are likely predicting peak demand far later than it will be.
Friday, March 24, 2017
This Single Model Explains Crude Oil Price Swings / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
BY JARED DILLIAN : One of the things we learned when oil collapsed a couple of years ago—something I’ve written about previously—was that there was a positive feedback loop embedded in declining oil prices.
Basic economic theory would tell you that as the price declines, so does oil supply. But the opposite turned out to be true. The rice went down, and people pumped more!
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Wednesday, March 22, 2017
An OPEC Oil Deal Extension Isn’t As Simple As It Sounds / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
It’s been six months now that oil prices have been reacting to OPEC, first to the possibility of an agreement, and then to the production cut deal itself, forged by OPEC to rebalance the market. The deal--initially aired as ‘an agreement to agree on a deal’ in September and signed at the end of November—will likely impact the market for at least the next six months.
Monday, March 20, 2017
Crude Oil Price Decline Continuation / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Bob_Loukas
I like this Crude oil decline, and to date, it has been a picture perfect Cycle’s development. Members of The Financial Tap were already tracking that expectation in advance, and positioned well to take advantage. But that big decline, which started on March 7th took many by surprise, judging by the extreme (Long) positioning seen with the COT report. And if you were not already short before the move began, the speed of the decline made it nearly impossible to establish a new position thereafter.
Thursday, March 16, 2017
Crude Oil Price Outlook 2017 - Video / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My crude oil in-depth analysis and concluding trend forecast for 2016 proved remarkably accurate, and so I get a lot of comments requesting a similar exercise for 2017. However my analysis has so far not lead me in the direction of the oil price, nevertheless my recent analysis on the SNP's latest call for a Scottish independence in an attempt at subverting BrExit, that eventually aim to convert into a video did include a brief look at the most probable prospects for the crude oil price for 2017 as being a significant factor with regards forecasting the outcome of the Scottish second referendum.
Sunday, March 12, 2017
Technical Update for Crude Oil: Brent and WTI / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: MarketsToday
Highlights: Brent Crude
- Brent has been progressing upwards in an ascending trend channel for a number of months
- Last week it broke down sharply from a tight symmetrical triangle or pennant pattern and through support of the 50-day exponential moving average (ema) before finding support around the 50-week ema and the 200-day ema. The low for the week was 51.18.
- Brent is now likely to either:
- bounce from here back up towards the breakdown level around 55.00 to test it as resistance, before turning back down, or
- relatively quickly continue the descent to lower support levels
Wednesday, March 08, 2017
Is A Second OPEC Oil Cut On The Cards? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
OPEC’s coordinated effort to curtail global supply has so far managed to put a floor under oil prices, which have been sitting modestly above US$50 since the deal was announced at the end of November last year. But resurging U.S. shale has been capping the upside, and Brent has not breached US$58 per barrel. Analysts and experts are now mostly predicting that oil prices will remain below US$60 this year.
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Saturday, March 04, 2017
Oil Market - You Won't Get a Clearer Warning Than This One / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts changes that portend a "brutal decline" in both the oil and precious metals markets.
This quick update on oil is to point out that the latest oil COTs and Hedgers positions were at frightening extremes, as oil has struggled and failed, thus far, to break higher. This is viewed as meaning trouble—BIG TROUBLE—for the oil market, where we could see a precipitous drop as in 2014.
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Wednesday, March 01, 2017
Next Crude Oil Price Rally? Futures Say Market Is Tightening / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
U.S. oil inventories are at record levels, but there are a few glimmers of hope that the glut could be starting to subside.
Storing crude oil for sale at a later date is no longer profitable, as the futures curve has flattened out in recent weeks, depriving traders of a strategy that has served them well over the past few years. The market “contango,” in which front-month oil contracts trade at a discount to oil futures six months or a year out, has all but vanished. The differential must be large enough to cover the cost of storage, and for many time spreads that is no longer the case. After three years of a steep contango, storing oil simply to take advantage of the time spreads is increasingly uneconomical.
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Tuesday, February 21, 2017
Buy Zones in an Crude Oil Bull Market / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in energy market, noting a major buy signal.
Monday, February 20, 2017
Brent Crude Oil Price Technical Update: Low Volatility Leads to High Volatility / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: MarketsToday
Since our last update on oil two months ago (Dec. 22, 2016) Brent Crude has not gone far, rising approximately 2.4% from 54.82 to 56.16 today. During this time it has traded within a relatively tight range (low volatility), from around a low of 53.61 to a high of 58.35.
The chart pattern that has formed in the past two months is either a bullish symmetrical triangle trend continuation pattern or a bearish head and shoulders top. Whichever way the breakout goes should confirm the next direction, either a continuation higher of the 13-month uptrend, or a deeper retracement off the 58.35 high.
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Tuesday, February 07, 2017
Gold and Crude Oil Link – What Does It Say? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $56.45 and an initial downside target at $45.81) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Monday, crude oil lost 1.52% after oil investors reacted to Friday’s Baker Hughes’ report, which showed that U.S. drillers added 17 rigs, which was the 13th increase in the past 14 weeks. Thanks to this news light crude reversed and declined to the previously-broken short-term support/resistance line. Will it manage to stop oil bears in the coming days? Is it possible that the relationship between gold and crude oil give us more clues about oil’s future moves?
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Thursday, February 02, 2017
The Oil War Is Only Just Getting Started / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
It’s been a month now that investors and analysts have been closely watching two main drivers for oil prices: how OPEC is doing with the supply-cut deal, and how U.S. shale is responding to fifty-plus-dollar oil with rebounding drilling activity. Those two main factors are largely neutralizing each other, and are putting a floor and a cap to a price range of between $50 and $60.
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Saturday, January 21, 2017
Time for Crude Oil Price Drop below $50? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $56.45 and an initial downside target at $45.81) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Wednesday, crude oil lost 2.57% after the head of the IEA warned of a significant increase in U.S. shale output as OPEC and non-OPEC producers cut output. This news negatively affected the investors' sentiment and pushed the black gold under important support levels. What does it mean for light crude?
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Tuesday, January 17, 2017
OPEC Oil Deal Already Showing Signs of Stress / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: AnyOption
Even though Saudi Arabia was quick to proclaim a victory at the outset of the year after reducing its own oil production to levels agreed upon in Vienna, there are numerous threats to the outlook for crude prices. Despite claims that the move to reduce OPEC output will be enough to drain the approximate 300 million barrels in global oversupply within six months, a move by the Cartel and non-OPEC members to ramp up production afterwards could beckon the resurgence of global oversupply. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 12, 2017
Crude Oil Prices Running Out Of Reasons To Rally / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil prices faltered at the start of the second week of the year, as fears set in about a rapid rebound in U.S. shale production. For the better part of two months, optimism surrounding the OPEC deal has buoyed oil prices, but bullish sentiment from speculators are showing early signs of abating, raising the possibility that the oil rally is running out of steam.
Wednesday, January 04, 2017
Here’s the Real Oil Price Russia Needs to Break Even / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
BY JACOB SHAPIRO : We published our 2017 forecast earlier this week. One of our predictions is that Russia is in for a difficult year economically. This is because Russia’s economy depends significantly on oil.
The price of oil in 2016 has averaged roughly $43 a barrel. That’s a far cry from two years ago, when it was more than double. According to Russia’s Federal Customs Service, oil-export revenue accounts for 26 percent of total revenue from Russian exports. For an economy with exports making up almost 30 percent of GDP, that’s fairly significant.
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Friday, December 16, 2016
Goldman Sachs is Talking Nonsense Again: Shale will not affect Global Oil Supply until Price hits $85 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
Latest headline: “Goldman Sachs Warns the Saudis: ‘’U.S. Shale Will Respond’’”http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Goldman-Sachs-Warns-The-Saudis-US-Shale-Will-Respond.html
Reminds me of when we all used to sing-along the company song ”House Prices Always go up”; and why not? If you could get the suckers to buy that idea, selling them AAA-rated (toxic) collateralized debt obligations concocted by Goldman Sachs, was a synch. Ah...Goldman Sachs...the Divine God’s Workers; now they are experts on shale oil...what next...tropical fish? So now they are telling their customers “shale oil is a buy”, that means presumably, they are long and they are scrambling to unload their positions?
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Thursday, December 08, 2016
Crude Oil and Gold, Silver Precious Metals Link / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $54.51 and initial downside target at $45.43) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Tuesday, crude oil moved lower and lost 1.66% after data showed that OPEC production rose to about 34.2 million barrels per day in Nov, hitting another record high. In this environment, light crude slipped under $51 and approached the barrier of $50, and thus the short position that we had opened early during yesterday’s session were already profitable at its end. Will we see a drop below the key $50 level in the coming days?
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Thursday, December 08, 2016
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 September Update / News_Letter / Crude Oil
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle Newsletter15th September, 2016 Issue # 23 Vol. 10
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Thursday, December 08, 2016
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 Implications for Stock Market / News_Letter / Crude Oil
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle Newsletter17th May, 2016 Issue # 11 Vol. 10
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Tuesday, December 06, 2016
Crude Oil Price New Highs Ahead Us? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil gained 1.21% as OPEC deal continued to support the price of the commodity. In this environment, light crude re-approached the Oct high. Will we see fresh 2016 peak in the coming week?
Let's take a look at the charts below to find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Monday, December 05, 2016
Crude Oil Prices: "Random"? Hardly / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
The more emotional the market, the more predictable it is.
Last week's shocking spike in crude oil prices is +12% and counting, the biggest one-week gain in five years. Media stories blame one culprit: the November 30 OPEC agreement to cut production.
In absolute terms, the agreed-to cut is small: 1.2 million barrels a day, less than 2% of daily global oil production. Given the existing supply glut, that's a drop in the bucket (no pun intended). Yet, it was a bigger cut than the market expected; plus, the fact that OPEC members came to an agreement at all was enough to play a role in soaring prices.
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Friday, December 02, 2016
Shale-War is over so $60 Brent Crude Oil by Christmas is highly probable: Next $85? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
In April this model (http://oilpro.com/...) predicted the Saudi’s would blink in Doha and Brent would see $60 by Christmas.Well they did blink in Doha; they stopped talking about pumping an extra two-million barrels per day into the pot; incidentally that was just bravado; unless the plan was to stop using oil to make electricity...which would have been unpopular during the summer.
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Wednesday, November 30, 2016
Breakdown and Slide in Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Crude oil gained 2.21% yesterday and came back above $47, but taking a dive today, confirming that closing the long positions yesterday and taking profits off the table was a good idea. Now, the question is how much does today’s decline actually change.
Let’s take a look at the charts to find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
Tuesday, November 22, 2016
Will Crude Oil Price Rally to $50? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Long positions (with a stop-loss order at $41.39 and initial upside target at $49.53) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil moved higher once again as optimism over an OPEC deal to limit production continued to weigh on investors' sentiment. In this environment, light crude gained 0.83% and closed the day above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. What does it mean for the commodity?
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Friday, November 18, 2016
Crude Oil Bears State Prices Headed Lower - Bulls-Eye or Rubbish? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Sol_Palha
"Anxiety is a thin stream of fear trickling through the mind. If encouraged, it cuts a channel into which all other thoughts are drained." ~ Arthur Somers Roche
2015 was a terrible year for oil and it looked like 2106 would even worse; oil dipped below $30.00 and all cockroaches (oops we mean analysts) started to state $10.00 oil was next. When we heard this nonsense, we penned an article titled will the crude oil price crash become even worse in 2016?
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Friday, November 18, 2016
Are The Saudis About To Reveal The Best Kept Secret In Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
One of the oil world’s longest and best kept secrets may finally be revealed. Saudi Arabia is preparing to unveil how much oil it holds, a closely guarded state secret that has been kept quiet for decades.
The decision to bring such important data to light comes as Saudi Aramco is preparing to partially privatize its assets, an IPO that could bring in some $100 billion. The IPO will be a monumental event, one that the Wall Street Journal says could offer Wall Street some of the largest fees in history.
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Friday, November 18, 2016
If Only These Two Things Come to Pass, Crude Oil Prices Will Rise / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
Will oil prices recover as Wall Street presumes? That depends on the balance of supply and demand.
Climate change agreements notwithstanding, the world still burns and will go on burning a lot of fossil fuel. Slowing economic growth has reduced energy demand growth, but the absolute numbers remain strong. This will change as greener technology spreads, but very slowly.
The real mystery is on the supply side.
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Wednesday, November 16, 2016
Non-USD Picture of Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Long positions (with a stop-loss order at $41.39 and initial upside target at $49.53) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Although crude oil moved lower after the markets open, oil bulls stopped further deterioration and triggered a rebound in the following hours. As a result, light crude erased most of earlier losses and closed the day above Friday’s low. What can we expect in the coming days?
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Tuesday, November 15, 2016
OPEC’s Bearish Report Provides Little Hope For Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Just one day after the IEA warned the world could drown in oil if production does not fall beneath demand sometime soon, OPEC released a new market whammy, offering up the cartel’s production figures, which largely jive with figures reported by the IEA yesterday: OPEC has increased its oil production.
OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report revealed daily oil production for the cartel of 33.64 million barrels for October—up by 240,000 bpd on September—largely confirming the IEA’s report, although the international authority’s figure was a bit higher at 33.83 million bpd.
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Wednesday, November 09, 2016
Uncertainty about OPEC and US Election Leads to Oil Price Drop / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Jason_Hamlin
During the third quarter of 2016, global gold production dropped by 0.5%. Miners brought 846.8t onto the market versus 851.2t during Q3 of 2015. While this isn’t a huge decline, it marks the second consecutive quarter that gold production was down versus the previous year. The overall trend of plateauing output remains in place and has increased the odds that we are approaching, or have already reached, peak gold. The chart of annual mine production is shown below.
Wednesday, November 02, 2016
Can Oil Markets Survive An OPEC Implosion? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
A technical meeting that was supposed to iron out some wrinkles for a deal to cut oil production ended in acrimony over the weekend, and OPEC's effort at coordination could be at yet another impasse.
Following the Algiers agreement at the end of September, a tentative deal that called for a collective reduction in oil output in the range of 200,000 to 700,000 barrels per day, OPEC scheduled a meeting on October 28-29 in Vienna to put some meat on the bones of the pact so that it could be officially sealed at the end of November.
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Friday, October 28, 2016
What's Next for Crude Oil; Higher Prices or Crash / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Sol_Palha
"If the doors of perception were cleansed everything would appear to man as it is, infinite. For man has closed himself up, till he sees all things thru chinks of his cavern." ~ William Blake
2016 started with all the Drs of Gloom stating that oil was heading lower and many even predicted that it would trade down to $10.00. It was kind of interesting to watch this circus as there is a saying the cure for low prices is usually low prices. It would have made sense to take a firm stance against oil when it was trading above $100, but not when it was trading in the $30.00 ranges. These same experts were busy proclaiming higher prices when oil was trading north of $100.00. Only when oil was close to putting in a bottom, did they muster the courage to issue even lower prices; they would have been well served by simply keeping quiet. Experts were all trying to outdo each other; each one is releasing lower prices and a gloomier scenario. Here are some examples of the stories being put out at the time:
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Tuesday, October 25, 2016
Cycle of Low Crude Prices Nearing an End, Says Saudi Oil Minister / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih declared the cycle of low crude prices is nearing an end as the oil market strengthens in recent weeks.
"Market fundamentals, in terms of supply and demand, have begun to improve," Falih stated on Sunday at a press conference with Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, adding: "We are optimistic that oil prices will continue to improve in the future."
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Tuesday, October 25, 2016
Where Will Crude Oil Price Head Next? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $53.22 and initial price target at $46) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil gained 0.43% after Russia renewed its commitment to joining a producers' output freeze. Thanks to this news, light crude bounced off session’s lows and closed the week slightly below $51. But did this move change anything in the overall picture of the commodity?
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Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Gold and Crude Oil - General Stock Market Links / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Without a doubt the most important event of the recent month (or even the recent years) was unexpected OPEC’s decision to limit its production to a range of 32.5-33.0 million barrels per day. The agreement reached in Algiers (which is expected to be implemented this year) improved oil investors’ sentiment and pushed the price of crude oil above the barrier of $50. But is it enough to break above the Jun peak? Is it possible that the relationships between crude oil, gold and the general stock market give us more clues about future crude oil’s moves?
Tuesday, October 11, 2016
For How Long Can OPEC Talk Up Oil Prices? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Not a day passes without OPEC making oil and gas headlines, and today is surely no exception. Seemingly in lockstep with OPEC, the market is once again pacified on the promise that changes to the global oil supply glut are a' comin'. Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal quoted anonymous sources close to the matter who had it on good authority that the Saudi's were willing to cut "up to" 400,000 barrels per day (and that they had planned to do so all along, with or without an OPEC agreement). We can assume this figure is off August or September levels, which are near-record highs for the oil-rich country.
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Saturday, October 08, 2016
Crude's Post-OPEC Rally "Bears Watching" But "Natural Gas is More Interesting Market at this Juncture" / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
New insights from Chief Energy Analyst Steve Craig
Elliott Wave International's Steve Craig offers you his latest insight on price trends in crude oil and natural gas.
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Thursday, October 06, 2016
Crude Oil Price Double Top or Further Rally? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective. In other words, we think that taking profits off the table and closing the previous long positions is a good idea.
On Tuesday, crude oil gave some of earlier gains after news that Iran and Libya have continued to increase production. In these circumstances, light crude slipped to the previously-broken resistance zone, but then closed the day above it. Is this a verification of the breakout?
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Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Where Will Oil Prices Go After Algiers? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Saudi Arabia and Iran may yet come to terms on some sort of production arrangement, but the outcome of the negotiations in Algeria this week may not do much to rescue oil prices. Following the media spectacle, the oil markets may have to shift their attention back to the supply and demand fundamentals, which are not reassuring.
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Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Crude Oil Bull Market Correction / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Ed_Carlson
Crude gained $1.45/bbl. last week closing at 44.48 even after a $1.84 loss on Friday. Since the August high, crude looks like a descending triangle (bearish). The upper trendline passes through 46.75 this week. Support is at 43.25. A break of support opens the door for a decline to 38.25. The weekly Coppock Curve did confirm the June high so look for higher highs in the future. However, new lows are expected once wave C has completed.
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Thursday, September 15, 2016
Crude Oil Prices: Investors Getting Comfortable with New Levels? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nicholas_Kitonyi
When the price of oil breached above the $50 level, everyone thought alas, we could be hitting $70 before the end of the year. It was a steady rally that appeared to have turned the tide completely. However, things did not turn out as earlier predicted. Within no time, oil prices dropped again below $50 and have since failed to reach those levels. If anything, there are fresh fears that the price of crude oil could drop below $40 if the production levels remain unchecked.
Thursday, September 15, 2016
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 September Update / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
At the start of this year the prevailing mood in the oil market was not just one of doom and gloom but of catastrophe as the oil price sunk below $30, skidding by the middle of February to virtually touch $25, a period during which many prominent analysts and investment banks such as Goldman Sachs all of whom were bearish on the prospects for oil price this year even suggesting that the oil price could sink to as low as $10 (Standard Chartered) which meant that the oil producers, the frackers and even a string of nations such as Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela were on the fast track towards going bust as their oil profits that financed state spending budget deficits evaporated.
Wednesday, September 14, 2016
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 Update / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
At the start of the year the prevailing mood in the oil market was not just one of doom and gloom but of catastrophe as the oil price sunk below $30, skidding by the middle of February to virtually touch $25, a period during which many prominent analysts and investment banks such as Goldman Sachs all of whom were bearish on the prospects for oil price this year even suggesting that the oil price could sink to as low as $10 (Standard Chartered) which meant that the oil producers, the frackers and even a string of nations such as Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela were on the fast track towards going bust in as their oil profits that financed state spending budget deficits evaporated.
Tuesday, September 13, 2016
Gold and United States Imported Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: DeviantInvestor
The US has imported crude oil for many decades. The following data (1970 – 2015) comes from the Energy Information Administration of the US government. This data shows reported barrels of crude oil imported into the US.
(Note: This is not a comprehensive analysis of imported energy, nor does it compensate for exports of crude oil, imports or exports of coal, natural gas or other energy sources.)
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Thursday, September 08, 2016
The Next Sector To Recover From The Oil Price Crash / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oilfield services, shipbuilders and other industries that rose with the pre-2014 oil price boom have had it hard. Since barrel rates fell, their previous patrons have become uninterested in doling out major purchase orders, leaving oil and gas equipment manufacturers without revenues.
A recent report by Arkansas Online says the energy industry’s support sector could feel the effects of low oil prices for up to two years after the current bear market recovers.
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Thursday, August 25, 2016
OPEC’s Output Freeze: What Has Changed Since Doha? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
It’s possible that OPEC is crying wolf with hints of an output freeze next month in Algiers; but it’s also possible that they are ramping up production to take the sting out of a freeze. This is a delicate balancing act that the Saudis need to play very carefully.
The official chatter is that the OPEC meeting in Algeria from September 26 to 28 could conclude with an agreement to freeze production by the member nations, with even Russia joining forces in a freeze that may prevent further oil price erosion. But everyone’s a bit gun-shy after the false hopes of the last round in Doha—even if a freeze at levels that existed then wouldn’t have meant much either—and it’s hard to blame them. The question is, how many times can the Saudis cry wolf without forever losing the ability to leverage this chatter to affect a rise in oil prices?
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Wednesday, August 24, 2016
Crude and the Commodity Cycle / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Tony_Caldaro
Over the years we have written many times about the 34-year commodity cycle. Generally commodities rise as a group in a 13-year bull market, which is followed by a 21-year bear market. Each specific commodity has its own particular cycle which generally fits within the broader 34-year commodity cycle.
Monday, August 22, 2016
WTI Crude Oil Pattern Still on Target for Higher Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Ken_Ticehurst
Since our last article WTI has behaved perfectly, clearing all our daily hurdles. Our longer term patterns show the strong possibility of a rise to $60+ during the second half of this year before a further decline in to 2017.
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Friday, August 19, 2016
Saudis Ramping Up Oil Output To Gain Leverage In OPEC Talks / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Saudi Arabia suggests it may be increasing its August crude output to a new all-time high as it could give it more leverage to influence the September informal talks on a possible production freeze, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing industry sources.
Saudi Arabia – OPEC’s biggest producer — pumped a record 10.67 million barrels per day in July, up by some 120,000 bpd compared to June. The Saudis are usually ramping up production in the summer with the higher demand for crude, but what was unusual was that production hit a record high, above last summer’s peak.
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Friday, August 19, 2016
Higher Crude Oil’s Prices and USD/CAD / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Earlier today, the USD Index extended losses against its Canadian counterpart after the disappointing minutes of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting (they vanished expectations for a September rate hike) continued to weigh on investors’ sentiment. Additionally, rising prices of crude oil supported Canadian currency, which pushed USD/CAD under 1.2800. What’s next for the exchange rate?
In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified – summary:
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Friday, August 12, 2016
Is the Crude Oil Price Rally Over? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Long positions (stop loss at $37.23; initial upside target at $46.90) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Crude oil declined on Wednesday only to shoot up with vengeance yesterday, exceeding the previous August highs. Still, crude oil declined a bit before the session was over, so many investors are wondering if the rally is already over – is this the case?
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Friday, August 12, 2016
Crude Oil Price Bottom likely to Propel Dow Industrials Higher / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Sol_Palha
The minute you settle for less than you deserve, you get even less than you settled for. Maureen Dowd
The chart below clearly illustrates that a relationship exists between crude oil and the Dow. For most of the 1st half of 2015, oil traded sideways, and the Dow followed suit. Then, around July of 2015, oil broke down, and the Dow followed in its footsteps. We see a similar pattern from Nov-Dec 2015; oil headed lower, and the Dow once again followed in its footsteps; so much for the argument that states lower oil prices are conducive for the markets.
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Tuesday, August 09, 2016
Will this Crude Oil Price Rally hold? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Bob_Loukas
Crude has finally reversed higher to recover some of its recent losses, and is now showing clear evidence of a new Daily Cycle (DC) and Crude Oil Rally. There are early signs of a new Investor Cycle (IC) as well.
Midweek, Crude bottomed on day 44 before reversing sharply higher and punching through the declining trend-line. And when it closed above the 10 day moving average, Crude confirmed that it is in the early stages of a new Daily Cycle. From this point forward, Crude’s performance will depend on its Investor Cycle and the bear market as a whole.
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Thursday, August 04, 2016
Today's Downturn Sets Markets Up For A Dramatic Oil Price Spike / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Another oil price downturn threatens to deepen the plunging levels of investment in upstream oil and gas production, which could create a more acute price spike in the years ahead.Oil and gas companies have gutted their capex budgets, necessary moves as drillers went deep into the red following the crash in oil prices. But the sharp cutback in investment means that huge volumes of oil that would have otherwise come online in five or ten years now will remain on the sidelines.
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Monday, August 01, 2016
WTI Forecast Pattern Suggests Higher Crude Oil Prices Coming / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Ken_Ticehurst
WTI having recently topped out at $50 per barrel, is now possibly ending a decent consolidation having moved off its start of the year lows. Our longer term patterns show the strong possibility of a rise to $60+ during the second half of this year before a further decline in to 2017.
Friday, July 29, 2016
Crude Oil CFDs - What to Expect in the Coming Months / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
The oil market is globalised, and it works for 24 hours a day. It is also very sensitive, so prices are constantly fluctuating. This is why day traders can benefit from this market, particularly if they trade on oil prices with the help of CFDs (contracts for difference).
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Thursday, July 21, 2016
Did Oil Kill The Dinosaurs? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
What killed the dinosaurs? It's a question as old as – well the dinosaurs themselves, and one that everyone from school children to scientists have been asking for decades. Movies like Jurassic Park and the Land Before Time only heighten that sense of wonder and raise the stakes behind that question. Now according to a new scientific study, it seems that black gold may have been the source of the dinos' demise.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
The Peak Oil Paradox Revisited / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
It’s been a while since we posted an article by our friend Euan Mearns, who was active at The Oil Drum at the same time Nicole and I were. Is it really 11 years ago that started, and almost 9 since we left? You know the drill: we ‘departed’ because they didn’t want us to cover finance, which we said was the more immediate crisis, yada yada. Euan stayed on for longer, and the once unequalled Oil Drum is no more.
On one of our long tours, which were based around Nicole’s brilliant public speaking engagements, we went to see Euan in Scotland, he teaches at Aberdeen University. I think it was 2011?! An honor. Anyway, always a friend.
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Thursday, July 14, 2016
Successfully Forecasting Crude Oil Price from 2014 to Today / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
The Wave Principle helped investors prepare for today's energy market action
March 31, 2014 was no time to issue a bearish forecast for crude oil -- or so it appeared.
But that's exactly the scenario Elliott Wave International's founder Bob Prechter showed his subscribers in his monthly Elliott Wave Theorist.
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Wednesday, July 13, 2016
Oil Industry Faces Huge Worker Shortage / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The rig count has rebounded from the lows seen in late May, a small indication that oil companies in the U.S. could begin drilling anew. Shale drilling is a short-cycle prospect, requiring only a few weeks to drill and bring a well online. Because of this, the collective U.S. shale industry has been likened to the new "swing producer": low oil prices force quick cutbacks but higher prices trigger new supplies. In essence, shale could balance the market in the way OPEC used to.
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Tuesday, July 12, 2016
Crude Oil - Precious Metals Link / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
In the recent few weeks oil bulls and bears fought battles between the barrier of $50 (the key resistance) and the green support zone based on the Apr and early May highs. After several unsuccessful attempts to move higher oil bears took control and crude oil closed Thursday's and Friday's sessions under its first important support zone. How did this drop affect the oil-to gold and oil-to-silver ratios? Let's jump right into charts (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com) and find out.
Wednesday, June 22, 2016
Increase In U.S. Rig Count Will Not Cap Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The impact of rising oil prices on North American light tight oil (LTO) production is said to be a “Catch 22”, the title of Joseph Heller’s popular 1961 novel set in WWII. The premise was you could get out of the army if you were crazy but you weren’t crazy to try to get out of the army. So this avenue to escape the war didn’t work for the book’s main character John Yossarian. Too many analysts continue to believe drilling and service has the same problem with rising oil prices. With WTI back above $50 a barrel – at least briefly last week – North American LTO developers are putting rigs, service equipment and personnel back to work. The so-called “fraclog” or “DUC” inventory (wells drilled but uncompleted) is being reduced. While this is good it is also thought by some to be temporary.
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Thursday, June 16, 2016
Crude Oil Price - Oil Bears vs. Support Zone / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Tuesday, crude oil lost 1.36% as rising uncertainty around Brexit weighed on investors' sentiment (leaving the European Union by Britain could trigger a recession and slow demand for crude in Europe). In these circumstances, light crude declined under the short-term support line and approached the Jun lows. Will we see lower prices in the coming days?
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Tuesday, June 07, 2016
Crude Oil Price Is Due for a Correction / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
Technical analyst Jack Chan demonstrates the divergence between oil equity prices and the underlying commodity.
Saturday, June 04, 2016
Why Crude Oil $50 Won't Last, Chances of a Breakdown Are High / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
Technical analyst and newsletter writer Clive Maund lists the reasons he believes oil prices, which recently peaked above $50/barrel, are headed for a fall.
It still looks like oil is topping out here at about the $50 level after its substantial recovery uptrend from its February low. While we cannot be sure until it breaks down from its uptrend, the chances of its doing so soon look high for various reasons.
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Thursday, June 02, 2016
On the Price of Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Since its high of almost $108/bbl in June of 2014, we have witnessed a stunning collapse in the price of oil. Indeed, in February 2016, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at $26/bbl, a 76 percent plunge from the June 2014 highs. It has since clawed its way back to $49/bbl (May 24th).Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 31, 2016
3 Years Of Painful Cuts Sets Oil Markets Up For Serious Supply Crunch / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Total global oil production could decline for the next several years in a row as scarce new sources of supply come online.
According to data from Rystad Energy, overall global oil output will fall this year as natural depletion overwhelms all new sources of supply. But the deficit will only widen in the years ahead due to the dramatic scaling back in spending on new exploration and development.
Monday, May 30, 2016
Smart Oil Traders Who Realize This Pattern Could Make a Killing / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Graham_Summers
The markets are tracking the same pattern that played out in 2015.
Most market action (more than 80%) today is driven by computer algorithms. These programs look for an asset class that is moving, and then buy based on the momentum.
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Friday, May 27, 2016
Oil Climbs over $50: Can Investors Bank on a Recovery? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
The price of a barrel of oil has almost doubled from its low of $28 at the start of the year, prompting speculation that a recovery is underway, which may result in the revival of companies in the exploration, production and services sectors that have foundered since prices collapsed in 2015.
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Thursday, May 26, 2016
The Black Swan Spotter...Which Saw the Oil-Crash coming; now says the “Invisible Hand” will push Brent to $85 by Christmas / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
This is a long article...in summary:
The Short Story:
- $85 by Christmas 2016 sounds as far-fetched as the notion that when Oil was $100-Plus, it would crash!
- The Big Idea then, was that was a classic price bubble – and bubbles always bust
- That was based on a boring valuation for “Other-Than-Market-Value” (OTMV) done in line with very boring International Valuation Standards; nothing radical, no Black Magic, no Black Swans http://www.romacor.ro/legislatie/08-ivs2.pdf
- The “alleged” price-bubble, led “allegedly” to over-investment which led to over-supply
- That was probably thanks to central banks printing money to stimulate what Ludwig Von Mises called “mal-investment”, which is why you have central banks and “God’s Workers” ordained by Goldman Sachs
- The over-supply eventually caused a bust, predictably
- And then “over-investors” (and/or their banks), lost their shirts. That’s normal, it happens all the time; the only question is who pays; the latest idea of the Fed is the grand-children do.
- The model says bubble/bust is zero-sum and so the bust is over; because the supervisor of God’s Workers says so
- OTMV today appears to be about $85, so that’s where the price is headed now
- Unless shale oil comes back in a big way – that’s the only caveat.
Wednesday, May 04, 2016
Why China Is Really Dictating the Oil Supply Glut / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Ship tracking data from Bloomberg shows that 83 supertankers carrying around 166 million barrels of oil are headed to China, which has stockpiled an impressive 787,000 barrels a day in the first quarter of 2016—the highest stockpiling rate since 2014.
While the world was speculating about oil prices plunging to $20 and $10 per barrel, China was busy stockpiling its reserves.
Tuesday, May 03, 2016
Low Prices for Oil Cure Low Prices for Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
Veteran investor Bob Moriarty discusses one company that is poised to benefit from the volatililty in the oil markets.
Wednesday, April 27, 2016
Crude Oil: See How Elliott Waves Prepare You for Trend Changes - Video / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
"Trend is your friend"? Yes -- but how do you know when a trend may end? Watch.
Back in February, when crude oil prices fell to $26 a barrel, you may remember a chorus of mainstream opinions suggesting that it had further to fall. Yet, oil prices shot up 60% since then.
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Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Crude Oil Price Double Top or Further Rally? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $48.56 and initial downside target at $35.24) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Although crude oil increased after the market's open, approaching Thursday's high, the commodity gave up some gains in the following hours weakened by the strengthening U.S. dollar. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude closed another day under the resistance line. Will it be strong enough to stop oil bulls in the coming days?
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Saturday, April 23, 2016
Crude Oil Price Crash Triggering Global Instability, Trend Forecast 2016 / News_Letter / Crude Oil
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle NewsletterJan 17th, 2016 Issue # 2 Vol. 10
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Thursday, April 21, 2016
Crude Oil Complacency Climbs / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: AnyOption
US production at 18-month lows was partly behind the recent surge in crude oil prices following yet another report of building onshore inventories. Despite the veritable flood of crude oil prices hitting global markets, crude prices continue to rise amid rising speculation that key global producers will elect to increase production even further. Since the freeze deal fell through, Russia has underlined its doubts that any such agreement will be possible, potentially paving the way for OPEC members to further stray from a single policy, opting instead to put national interests ahead of economic rationality. While prices have jumped to the highest levels since November on new forecasts that anticipate a rebalancing of the market my 2017, complacency amongst traders continues to grow as problematic fundamental conditions remain intact.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 19, 2016
Gold and Crude Oil - What Can We Infer from This Relationship? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Although the world's largest oil-producing countries met this weekend in Doha, they failed to reach a deal to freeze output at Jan levels as Saudi deputy crown prince Mohammed bin Salman sustained earlier statement that Saudi Arabia would freeze the level of its oil production only if all other major producers (including Iran) did the same. Although Iran supported the freeze, the country didn't agree to cut production until it raises its output to around 4 million barrels per day (to the pre-sanctions levels). What does it mean for crude oil? In our opinion, such developments suggest a renewed battle for crude market share, which would likely translate into lower values of the commodity in the coming days or even weeks. Will our interesting ratios confirm this scenario? Let's jump right into charts (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com) and find out.
Friday, April 08, 2016
Crude Oil Price $85 Forecast By Christmas / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
After a 50 percent rally in oil prices between February and March, crude has retreated a bit as of late. The upcoming OPEC-Russia meeting in Doha looms over the markets, but few expect the outcome to have any material impact on supply and demand. Global supply still exceeds demand, but there are solid signs that the overhang is finally starting to ease. Storage levels are high, but are expected to come down.
Wednesday, April 06, 2016
The Outlook for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Donald_W_Dony
Light crude oil prices (WTI) has remained in a downward trend since mid-2014. With its fresh new low in Q1, 2016 and price resistance now building at $42.40, the outlook remains negative.
The U.S. dollar's impact continues to play out against the commodity.
With the improving economic status of the U.S. coupled with a Fed agenda of gradual interest rate increases this year, the currency remains with a steady tailwind (Chart 1).
Wednesday, April 06, 2016
Crude Oil Price One-Day Rally or Something More / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Tuesday, crude oil moved lower after the market’s open weakened by an unexpected decline in monthly U.S. gasoline demand. Despite this drop, the commodity reversed and rebounded in the following hours. As a result, light crude gained 3.10% and invalidated earlier breakdown. What does it mean for oil bulls?
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Thursday, March 31, 2016
Crude Oil Price Meets Support / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Tuesday, crude oil lost 2.06% ahead of the American Petroleum Institute's weekly inventory report. Thanks to this drop, light crude closed another day under $39, but reached important support zone. Will it encourage oil bulls to act in the coming days?
Tuesday, March 29, 2016
U.S. Lifted The Crude Oil Export Ban, And Exports Went…Down / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Just over three months after the authorities lifted the four-decade ban on crude oil exports, the U.S. has actually exported less this year than it did over the same period the year before, when the ban was still in place.
According to Clipper Data market intelligence cited by the Financial Times, we've seen a 5 percent decline in U.S. crude oil export volumes since the beginning of this year. The data suggests that on average we are exporting (waterborne) 325,000 barrels per day now, compared to 342,000 barrels per day during the first months of 2015.
Thursday, March 24, 2016
The Current Oil Price Rally Is Reaching Its Limits / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil prices have climbed by about 50 percent from their February lows, topping $40 per barrel. But the rally could be reaching its limits, at least temporarily, as persistent oversupply and the prospect of new shale production caps any potential price increase.U.S. oil production has steadily lost ground over the past two quarters, with production falling more than a half million barrels per day since hitting a peak at nearly 9.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) in April 2015. American oil companies have gutted their budgets and have put off drilling plans, with many projecting absolute declines in 2016.
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Tuesday, March 22, 2016
Is This The End for Crude Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Sol_Palha
"The end is never as satisfying as the journey. To have achieved everything but to have done so without integrity and excitement is to have achieved nothing." ~ Anonymous
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Monday, March 21, 2016
Crude Oil Price – North or South? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil lost 1.30% after unexpected increase in U.S. oil rig counts. As a result, light crude slipped under $42 and closed the day under the previously-broken 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. What’s next for the commodity?
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Monday, March 21, 2016
Crude Oil Price Action & Forecast / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, Light Crude has seen a dramatic 35%+ increase in value. As the current price continue to flirt with $40 per barrel, the likelihood of a further price rise is on everyone’s mind. With recent lows near $26 per barrel, what is the possibility that oil will form a base above $30 and attempt a rally?
Historically, the 2009 low price for oil was $33.20. This level should be viewed as a key level of support for current price action. The recent price rotation below this level is a sign that oil prices are under extreme pressure in the current economic environment with a supply glut and slower than expected demand.
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Thursday, March 17, 2016
Oil Price Won't Stage A Serious Rebound Until This Happens / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil prices have shown signs of life over the past few weeks, as production declines in the U.S. raise expectations that the market is starting to adjust. As a result, Brent crude recently surpassed $40 per barrel for the first time in months.
A growling list of companies are capitulating, announcing production cuts for 2016. Continental Resources, for example, could see output fall by 10 percent. A range of other companies have made similar announcements in recent weeks. The energy world has been speculating about declines from U.S. shale, and the declines are finally starting to show up in the data.
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
Crude Oil Price Due for a Pit Stop / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Ed_Carlson
Crude gained $2.58 last week to close at 38.50 - on the declining trendline and the 50% retracement of the October decline. My bandwidth indicator has turned down indicating that the rally is long-in-the-tooth. On Friday, crude tested 39.00 which makes the February rally equal to 150% of the January rally; a natural stopping point.
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Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Crude Oil Price Technical Juncture / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil gained 1.24% as rig count declined to the lowest level ever. Thanks to this news, light crude hit a fresh March high, but will we see further rally in the coming week?
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Saturday, March 12, 2016
$67 Crude Oil Price Has All The Majors Converging Here / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Argentina offers one of the few places on earth where oil companies are not suffering from the full force of the collapse in prices.
Argentina regulates oil prices, a policy originally intended to insulate the public from the whims of the market, protecting people from triple-digit crude prices. But with the crash in prices since mid-2014, the effect of the regulation has reversed: motorists are now effectively subsidizing the oil industry.
Tuesday, March 01, 2016
Why Oil Booms And Busts Happen / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
What if I told you that there was a period in history where oil demand declined by 5 million barrels per day and non-OPEC supply increased by 5 million barrels per day, yet oil price rallied more than 50 percent? Would you believe me? If your answer is yes, then you guessed right. This was the period from 1979 to 1985; it was a period during which global oil demand declined from over 61 million barrels to 56 million barrels and non-OPEC supply increased from 32 million barrels to 37 million barrels. Yet prices rallied from $17 a barrel in 1979 to $26 a barrel in 1985, while reaching as high as $35 in 1981.
Wednesday, February 24, 2016
Who Will Be Left Standing At The End Of The Oil War / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
This is a financial cold war—nothing more, nothing less.
While there are billions of reasons to cut output, and every major producing country is reeling from the loss of revenues, some are weathering the current bust better than others, but the devil is in the details, and the details contain tons of variables.
Production cost and breakeven figures that analysts enjoy bandying can trap you in bubble of black-and-white mathematics that is a few brush-strokes shy of a full picture.
Monday, February 22, 2016
Crude Oil Price Bottom, Forecast to Double Before End of 2016 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The crude oil price last close of $32 stands $6 higher than its recent multi-year bear market low of $26. Whilst little has changed fundamentally so far in terms of supply i.e. OPEC and others are still pumping flat out and Iran continues to ramp up production, nevertheless demand destruction of many smaller oil producers operating at below break even prices is finally starting to be discounted by the market.
Saturday, February 20, 2016
OPEC Lost the Shale-Oil-War: Deflation Looms / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
In the unspoken plan to shut down what the oil-aristocrats called, “high cost producers”, let’s call that the Shale-Oil-War, the war-word was never mentioned. But it was war and there were casualties, Big-Time. There will be more bankruptcies in the Exploration and Production (E&P) sector and painful write-downs by the banks who supported it; many once oil-rich countries have been pushed into recession and the ripples are traveling down the value chain...there are long lines of cold-stacked brand-new drilling barges built on credit, closed steel plants and the mines that fed them, all the way through to the FAO Food-price Index that tracks oil prices. No wonder China is in some sort of recession, they were the final assembly point for a good part of the stuff you need to get oil out of the ground.
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Friday, February 12, 2016
T. Boone Pickens On Obama Oil Tax: "Dumbest Idea Ever" / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The Obama administration's proposed $10.25 per barrel oil tax adds up to approximately $32 billion a year, and critics are coming out of the woodwork in defense of both the oil industry and end users who would foot the bill for transportation system reforms-but it may be a moot point since the effort will simply be killed off by Congress.
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Tuesday, February 09, 2016
Crude Oil Price Continues to Drill Downward / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Ed_Carlson
Last week's forecast for a high in the Dow on February 1st was a perfect hit. As of last Friday, the Dow has fallen 438 points since last Monday's high.
Crude spent last week trying to breakout from the 34-dma but, in the end, fell $2.73/bbl. for the week closing at 30.89 and printed an engulfing bearish candlestick on the weekly chart.
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Monday, February 08, 2016
Crude Oil's True Message / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Michael_Pento
The pervasive narrative on Wall Street is that the collapse in oil prices will, any second now, restore consumers to their profligate spending ways. In fact, financial pundits have been calling for plunging energy prices to imminently rescue the economy for the past 18 months. Most importantly, these same gurus, who love to espouse the benefits of a collapse in oil prices, never connect the dots to what this collapse says about the state of global growth. Instead they argue it is solely a function of a supply glut that is the result of increased production.
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Sunday, February 07, 2016
Why Crude Oil Prices Could Continue FALLING From Here / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Jesse
By Brett Eversole
Friday, February 05, 2016
Crude Oil Price Bottoms and Blues / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: DeviantInvestor
Crude oil prices have dropped from about $106 in June of 2014 to briefly under $30 in January of 2016 – down about 74% peak to trough. This appears to be an on-going disaster for oil companies, the banks who loaned money to frackers, oil exporting countries, global stock markets and others.
Conventional wisdom suggests that crude oil prices will stay low for a long time because of low demand (global recession), huge supply (Iran, fracking, etc.), decline in commodity prices globally, and at least ten more reasons.
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Thursday, February 04, 2016
Crude Oil Price Forecast 2016 As Good As It Gets / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Joseph_Russo
In observing the enormous triple digit percentage gains achieved amid Crude Oil's northward thrusts versus its debilitating double digit losses during its major spills, it becomes rather clear why market participants prefer buying low in a newly forming bull market vs. selling short at the onset of a bear market.
On a relative basis, in the not too distant future, a cyclical bottom will form and the long-term trend in Crude will reverse to the upside - providing bullish speculators with yet another rare opportunity at the chance of humongous triple digit upside returns.
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Wednesday, January 27, 2016
Will Crude Oil Prices Rebound in 2016? 60 Reasons Why Investors Should Hang On / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Inventories will continue to rise, but the momentum is slowing.
The following are some observations as to how we got here and how we're gonna get out.
9 reasons why oil has taken so long to bottom:
1. OPEC increased production in 2015 to multiyear highs, principally in Saudi Arabia and Iraq where production between the two added 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) to inventories after the no cut stance was adopted.
Saturday, January 23, 2016
Will Crude Oil Prices Rebound in 2016? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oilprice.com recently spoke with Carl Larry, Director of Oil and Gas at Frost & Sullivan, a consultancy that conducts research on oil and gas markets, to get his thoughts on the state of oil in 2016.
Oilprice.com: I saw that you were on Bloomberg in December, and you said that you thought oil would go to the low $30s per barrel, which was a good call at the time, before OPEC would sort of relent. Do you see any chance that OPEC can actually coordinate any production cuts?
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 22, 2016
Crude Oil Price Bear Market Bottom? As WTIC Pops Back Over $30 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The crude oil price hit a new low on Wednesday of just under $27, prompting many doom merchants to emerge to proclaim / reaffirm that $20 and even $10 is on the horizon. However, on following day the oil price rallied strongly to just shy of $30 to end Thursday at $29.85 and this morning has popped just above $30 to currently stand at $30.20. With the key question being asked is are we witnessing the early stages of an oil price bottom (WTIC) or is this just a few days of calm before the next oil price crash storm?
Thursday, January 21, 2016
Crude Oil Foretells Additional Ruble Losses / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: AnyOption
Warnings from the IEA and new lows in key global benchmarks continues to weigh on the outlook for energy prices, hurting the foremost global oil and gas exporters. Russia has experienced a reversed rags to riches tale over the last two years as the impact of sanctions and the slump in the energy patch have kept the Ruble under extreme pressure. The underperformance continues to echo the losses in oil prices as the supply and demand imbalance remains largely unchanged, only set to grow in coming months with the expansion of Iranian crude oil exports. With market dynamics expected to be weak and existing projections forecasting no rebound in prices, the weakness in the Ruble is only likely to accelerate over time, matching losses in oil prices.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Will the Crude Oil Price Crash become even Worse in 2016? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Sol_Palha
A patient mind is the best remedy for trouble-
Plaut
2015 was not a good year for speculators trying to time the oil markets. Oil kept cutting through each support level like a hot knife cutting through butter. It would give the appearance that it was ready to mount a rally, but that rally would fade, and oil prices would drift lower. We penned an article in Nov of last year, where we stated that oil would have to close above $50 on a weekly basis for it to see higher prices. However, it failed to do that and drifted lower. When it closed below $32 on a weekly basis, it neutralized any tiny bullish signals it was issuing in 2015. Is oil close to putting in a bottom or will it once again let everyone down and plunge into a series of new lows. There is a saying that the cure for low prices is lower prices and vice versa; having said, that we expect one final wave of selling before oil bottoms out and starts to trend slowly upwards. We do not expect any violent upward reversals unless the situation between Iran and Saudi heats up to the point that a new war breaks out.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Crude Oil Hit $32... But The Worst Is Yet To Come / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Harry_Dent
On August 5 last year I forecast that oil would hit $32 or a bit lower by January.And it’s happened right on cue!
Along with iron ore and coal (down 70%-plus), oil has been one of the worst-performing commodities – down 80% from its 2008 top. And ultimately it’s headed lower, all the way to $10 or $20. I’ve been saying this since oil was $115, and look where we are now!
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Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Oil price Slump Leads To Shale 2.0, The Great Crew Change, And COP21 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Alfidi Capital writes: The oil sector's bear attack shows no signs of abating. OPEC's Saudi-led push for huge overproduction is driving the US shale sector to the brink of collapse. The post-crash survivors can benefit from "Shale 2.0" technologies that keep their costs down. They will need every advantage they can get when the "Great Crew Change" makes finding human talent harder and the UN's COP21 protocols make hydrocarbon production less desirable.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Crude Oil Price Stabilises above $30 Following New U.S. Sanctions Imposed on Duped Iran / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The crude oil price reversed direction Monday to climb back above $30 (WTIC) as the market has started to discount the probability that the Iranians have been duped into given up nuclear weaponry, in a perpetual U.S. game of sanctions for ever for the purpose of Iran being systematically disarmed of it's military capacity much as Iraq was disarmed before a pretext for invasion was manufactured by the Intelligence Agencies all to appease the Saudi and Israeli fundamentalist states (Islamic and Jewish).
Monday, January 18, 2016
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 - Video By Nadeem Walayat / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
After a savage bear market for the oil market for the whole of 2015, the crude oil price has got 2016 off with a bang by plunging to just below $30 before recovering at the last close to $30.68 (WTIC). One does not need to look far for the negative fundamentals that are driving the oil price into dust. Fundamentals such as the sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy, fundamentals such as the apparent oil war that Saudi Arabia is engaged in with the United States shale oil industry and now added to are fundamentals of lifting of sanctions against Iran that can literally immediately flood the oil market with 50 million barrels of crude oil in storage and looks set to up its output by 1m b/d this year.
Sunday, January 17, 2016
Crude Oil Price Crash Triggering Global Instability, Trend Forecast 2016 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The crude oil price collapse of 2015 has continued into 2016 with the price of oil plunging to a 12 year low of just under $30 per barrel as a consequence of a perfect storm of falling demand, primarily due to the slowing Chinese economy and relentlessly rising output that is not just limited to the usual OPEC suspects but is as the natural consequences of the fracking boom that continued to ripple out from the US to across the world during 2015.
Friday, January 15, 2016
Re-Covering Oil and War / Politics / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The first thing that popped into our minds on Tuesday when WTI oil briefly broached $30 for its first $20 handle in many years, was that this should be triggering a Gawdawful amount of bets, $30 being such an obvious number. Which in turn would of necessity lead to a -brief- rise in prices.
Apparently even that is not so easy to see, since when prices did indeed go up after, some 3% at the ‘top’, ‘analysts’ fell over each other talking up ‘bottom’, ‘rebound’ and even ‘recovery’. We’re really addicted to that recovery idea, aren’t we? Well, sorry, but this is not about recovering, it’s about covering (wagers).
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 15, 2016
Oil Wars 2016 - US vs Russia vs Saudi Arabia vs Iran / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The oil price collapse is having a devastating impact on ALL of the worlds major oil producers as it's not just a case of what is the break-even price but the price necessary to finance government budgets that are now in deep deficits which has been triggering increasing global instability as the price has slid to $30. In fact the budgets of virtually every major oil producer requires an oil price north of $80 just to break-even. With several such as Russia requiring $100+. Furthermore the oil price slump of 2015 has played a large part in sparking economic mass migration out of African oil producers such as Nigeria whose government requires an oil price of $120 to balance it's budget.
Friday, January 15, 2016
War Between Saudi Arabia And Iran Could Send Oil Prices To $250 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The rift between Saudi Arabia and Iran has quickly ballooned into the worst conflict in decades between the two countries.
The back-and-forth escalation quickly turned the simmering tension into an overt struggle for power in the Middle East. First, the execution of a prominent Shiite cleric prompted protestors to set fire to the Saudi embassy in Tehran. Saudi Arabia cut off diplomatic relations and kicked out Iranian diplomatic personnel. Tehran banned Saudi goods from entering Iran. Worst of all, Iran blames Saudi Arabia for an airstrike that landed near its embassy in Yemen.
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Crude Oil Price Crash Catastrophe, Independant Scotland Literally Begging to Rejoin the UK / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The oil price collapse of 2015 has continued into 2016 with the price of oil plunging to a 12 year low of $29, less than 1/3rd of just over a year ago at the time of the Scottish Independence mania that surrounded the Independence Referendum on the backs of an oil price of over $100 which had the Scottish Nationalists fantasising of the oil price heading to $120 and beyond, as part of painting a propaganda picture of an Independent Scotland Utopia to be built on tens of billions of free money each year in the form of tax revenues from a perpetually expanding north sea oil industry. Not only were the nationalist convinced of the oil price soaring soaring into the stratosphere but would heavily round on anyone that suggested that oil prices could actually fall as being Unionist propaganda.
Tuesday, January 12, 2016
Peak Bull Crap - How Oil Futures Curve Have Little Predictive Value / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
The oil market is the hot market right now from a news generation standpoint. But there are a lot of people writing and even trading in the oil market that frankly don`t have any clue what they are talking about. I have read some real rubbish the last few months regarding the oil market, and with the recent fall in prices, the last few days have been characterized by peak bull crap. Maybe if anything else this is an indication of the bottoming process in oil. Sort of like all those do it yourself Gold Mining shows hitting the reality television scene pretty much nailing the near term top in the gold market.
Tuesday, January 12, 2016
Here is How You Fix the Oil Market / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
The Mining Industry Approach
Monday, January 11, 2016
Crude Oil Price Closed Week under 2009 Low! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $39.12) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil lost 1.14% as concerns over a global supply glut, the situation in China and the Middle East continued to weigh on investors sentiment. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude closed the week under the 2009 low. Does it mean that we’ll see a test of the barrier of $30 in the coming weeks?
Friday, January 08, 2016
That`s the Bottom in the Crude Oil Price, Clear Out Weak Hands in the Market / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
On Wednesday the oil market sold off to $33.77 on large product`s builds, China`s devaluation of its currency, and a substantial selloff in equities. Sure Oil can go a dollar below this low, but for all intents and purposes this is the bottom in the oil selloff that was predicted for the start of the year. This move down was as predictable a move as there is in financial markets, and we called this down move to start the year with a piece we issued in December.
Thursday, January 07, 2016
Crude Oil Price Breakdown! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $39.12 and an initial downside target at $33.66) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Tuesday, crude oil lost 2.47% as a stronger greenback pushed the price lower. As a result, light crude extended losses and broke below important support line. What impact could it have on future moves?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 07, 2016
Crude Oil Price Tanks but Oil Tankers are Filling Up and Raking it In / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Sol_Palha
"A man, when he wishes, is the master of his fate." ~ Jose Ferrer
While oil continues to drop, there is one sector connected to the oil market that is doing rather well. It is the oil tanker sector, and while oil is trading at 11-year lows, many stocks in this sector are already posting double digits gains over the past 12 months. This sector looks appealing both from the Contrarian and Mass psychology perspective for the following reasons.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 05, 2016
Hedge Funds Remain Bullish Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Dan_Norcini
Just as the case with Silver, so do the hedge funds remain stubbornly long in crude oil.
Here is the updated COT chart as of last Tuesday, December 29, 2015.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 04, 2016
Saudi Arabia and OPEC Manipulate Oil Prices to Eliminate It’s Competition / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
About eighteen months ago the international price of WTI Crude Oil, at the close of June 2014, was $105.93 per barrel. Flash-forward to today; the price of WTI Crude Oil was just holding above $38.00 per barrel, a drastic fall of more than 65% since June 2014. I will point out several reasons behind this sharp, sudden, and what now seems to be prolonged slump.
Thursday, December 31, 2015
Crude Oil and Gold – What Can We Infer from This Relationship? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $39.12 and an initial downside target at $33.66) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Although crude oil moved higher yesterday, the key resistance lines continue to keep gains in check. What does it mean for the commodity? Will the oil-to-gold ratio give us more clues about future moves?
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 30, 2015
The Crude Oil Price 2016 Prediction Game / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
Anybody who tells you they know where the oil market is headed for 2016 is inexperienced, too stupid to realize there are far too many variables in play that are unknowable to predict with any accuracy their effects on other variables in the oil equation, talking their own respective books, just piling in with the recent herd mentality on the street, giving an opinion about as valid as the best paint color for a room, or like to see themselves on television talking about the hot market moving topic du jour.
Wednesday, December 30, 2015
$10 Trillion Investment Needed To Avoid Massive Oil Price Spike Says OPEC / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
OPEC says that $10 trillion worth of investment will need to flow into oil and gas through 2040 in order to meet the world’s energy needs.The OPEC published its World Oil Outlook 2015 (WOO) in late December, which struck a much more pessimistic note on the state of oil markets than in the past. On the one hand, OPEC does not see oil prices returning to triple-digit territory within the next 25 years, a strikingly bearish conclusion. The group expects oil prices to rise by an average of about $5 per year over the course of this decade, only reaching $80 per barrel in 2020. From there, it sees oil prices rising slowly, hitting $95 per barrel in 2040.
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Wednesday, December 23, 2015
Congress Eliminates U.S. Export Oil Ban / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: BATR
If you want to know how the “so called” Free Trade exponents think about exports, just analyze the impact and actual beneficiaries of the US House passes bill to lift 40-year ban on oil exports.
“The crude export restrictions were introduced in the US in 1975 in the middle of the energy crisis. They followed OPEC’s oil embargo of the US and other countries backing Israel during the Arab–Israeli war of 1973. In the face of embargo-related high oil prices, Washington eased the limits on oil imports and ordered an export ban.”
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Thursday, December 17, 2015
How Much Oil Is Needed To Power Santa's Sleigh? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Every year around the world, hundreds of millions of children wait anxiously for Santa Claus to arrive and bring presents and good cheer. But what if Santa never came? What if this year the reindeer all fall ill, perhaps due to Crazy Reindeer disease (the analog to Mad Cow) and Santa is forced to cancel Christmas? The result would be devastating.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 15, 2015
Will Lower Crude Oil Prices Cause the Fed to Delay Tightening? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Bob_Kirtley
The FOMC has been moving towards the beginning of a new tightening cycle for a considerable amount of time. Throughout this year Fed statements and the accompanying press conferences have been preparing the markets for the first rate hike. Since the October FOMC various Fed speakers have signalled to the market that the first hike would come at the December meeting, which is this week.
Tuesday, December 15, 2015
Crude Oil Extends Losses / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil lost 3.34% as a bearish report from the International Energy Agency added to worries over a supply glut and affected negatively investors' sentiment. In this environment, light crude dropped to a fresh 2015 low, slipping to the lowest level since Feb 2009. What's next?
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 12, 2015
Are Low Crude Oil Prices a 'Boom Or A Curse' For The World Economy? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The energy markets are tanking and are at levels that have not been seen since "The Recession" of 2009. Opinions are divided on the effects of the fall. Some say it is good for consumers, whereas, others say it is bad for the global economy. This article will analyze the overall effects of low crude oil prices on the industry, the major oil-producing nations, consumers and the overall global economy. The severity of the fall can be seen in the chart below.
Tuesday, December 08, 2015
Crude Oil Price Under $40! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $54.12 and initial (!) target price at $35.72 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil reversed and declined sharply after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' decision to keep production high weighed on investors' sentiment. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude lost 2.74% and slipped under the barrier of $40 once again. What's next?
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 04, 2015
Why Is The U.S. Reluctant To Bomb ISIS Oil Fields? / Politics / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
There has been some revealing new information coming out recently regarding the strategy against ISIS. One aspect many find troubling is the apparent failure of U.S. and coalition forces to sufficiently target and destroy oil infrastructure located in ISIS territory, which accounts for a significant portion of the terror group's annual income. The argument goes, if we want to impact their operations, we should target their primary sources of income, and choke off their operational funds. So, why does ISIS oil infrastructure still stand? Is this the result of an intelligence failure? Negligence? Or, is there a more purposeful reason?Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 01, 2015
ISIS, Turkey And Oil – The Bigger Picture: Interview With Pelicourt / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
As the terrorist attack in Paris sparks worldwide fear of similar reprisals and a bloody shootout and hostage situation in a five-star Mali hotel exacerbates those concerns, global energy security reels under the pressure of unfathomable geopolitics. In an exclusive interview with Oilprice.com, Robert Bensh—managing director and partner at Pelicourt, a Western-owned oil and gas company navigating tricky conflict zones—discusses: Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 01, 2015
Crude Oil Erases Price Gains / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $54.12 and initial (!) target price at $35.72 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil lost 3.31% as a stronger greenback weighed on the price of the commodity. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude moved away from its key resistance area and closed another week below it. Will this event encourage oil bears to act in the coming days?
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Friday, November 20, 2015
Crude Oil Price - Where is it Headed? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Sol_Palha
All this talk and turmoil and noise and movement and desire is outside of the veil; within the veil is silence and calm and rest. ~ Bayazid Al-Bistami
On the 19th of this month, two articles were published at the same time, one stating that oil could go to $26 and the other stating that oil is ready to trade to $80. Which one is it going to be, $26 or $80 and how is the average Joe going to be able to discern which one is a depiction of what lies ahead. This is the problem with today's mass media, in their quest to attract eyeballs, bombastic and often conflicting articles are published simultaneously. One almost feels that most of the major sites have only one agenda, quantity over quality.
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Wednesday, November 18, 2015
Saudis Planning For A War Of Attrition In Europe With Russia's Oil Industry / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Russia's central bank recently warned about the growing financial risks to the Russian economy from Saudi Arabia encroaching upon its traditional export market for crude oil. Russia sends 70 percent of its oil to Europe, but Saudi Arabia has been making inroads in the European market amid the oil price downturn.The result is a heavier discount for Russia's crude oil, the so-called Urals blend. Bloomberg reported that the Urals typically lands in Rotterdam, a major European destination, at a discount to Brent of around $2 or less. But the discount has widened to $3.50 lately due to increased competition from Saudi Arabia. "Oil supplies to Europe from Saudi Arabia are probably adversely affecting Urals prices," the Russian central bank warned in a recent report.
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Wednesday, November 11, 2015
Rejecting the Keystone Pipeline / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
All thinking and rational students of economics and political policy should take note of the triumphed message sent out by the CREDO Action progressive group. The strategy to organize a massive civil disobedience confrontation has been absent from the public square for far too long. However, when the cause is so ill founded and based upon foolish economic realities, the protesting activists need to rethink their falsely placed suppositions.
Tuesday, November 10, 2015
Political Climate Shifting Against The Oil And Gas Industry / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil and gas companies have had a tough time over the past year trying to weather the storm of falling oil prices. But the political and financial winds are moving in the wrong direction for the industry, raising more "above ground" problems at a time that they can ill-afford it.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 06, 2015
Oil Megaprojects Won't Stay On The Shelf For Long / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
One casualty of the oil price downturn could be the megaproject.For years, as conventional oil reserves depleted and became increasingly hard to find, oil companies ventured into far-flung locales to find new sources of production. Extracting oil from these frontier areas required more advanced technology and a lot more capital: Ultra deepwater, Arctic offshore, heavy oil sands, and increasingly, the Lower Tertiary.
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Thursday, November 05, 2015
Crude Oil Price More Weakness In Sight / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Gregor_Horvat
Crude oil has turned up in September when price broke out of a triangle placed in wave (b) so wave (c) was final with wave 4 pullback that reached 50.50 resistance from where sell-off occurred in October. As such, we suspect that WTI made a new swing now that will send price down into wave 5 back to 37.70. Broken corrective channel also suggests more weakness ahead,but after wave (ii) is complete.
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Sunday, November 01, 2015
Crude Oil Price Set For Big Rally / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Austin_Galt
The oil price has had a nice rise in the past week so let’s see just what is going on using the weekly and daily charts.
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
Stop Blaming OPEC For Low Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
We are a little more than a month away from OPEC's next meeting, which will be held in Vienna on December 4, 2015.
OPEC altered the course of the oil markets last year when it decided to cast aside its traditional role of maintaining balance through production cuts. Instead it pursued a strategy of fighting for market share, contributing to an immediate rout in oil prices. WTI and Brent then went on to dive below $50 in the weeks following OPEC's decision.
Thursday, October 22, 2015
USO Patience Before Picking Cycle Low / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Gary_Savage
A little more patience before trying to pick the cycle low in oil. RSI is just now getting oversold so its getting close.
I Like to see price close below the lower Bollinger band before trying to pick the bottom. Once it does then wait for a swing low to form.
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Monday, October 19, 2015
Crude Oil Market Showdown: Can Russia Outlast The Saudis? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
"Two men enter, one man leaves, two men enter, one man leaves, two men enter..." -
Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome November 27, oil consuming countries will celebrate the first anniversary of the Saudi decision to let market forces determine prices. This decision set crude prices on a downward path. Subsequently, to defend market share, the Saudis increased production, which exacerbated market oversupply and further pressured prices.
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Monday, October 12, 2015
New Hedge Fund Buying Enters Crude Oil Market / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Dan_Norcini
First, let's start with an updated chart of the WTI Crude oil.
Crude has been in a range for most of the month of September oscillating near the 50 day moving average. It had been unable to do much in the way of additional upside however until this month, when it finally broke out above resistance at the top of the range near the $48 level. Friday it managed to best 50 on an intraday basis but then faded well off the highs heading into the close.
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Tuesday, October 06, 2015
A Key Oil Price Trend That Everyone Is Missing / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Investment_U
David Fessler writes: My friend Rick Rule likes to say, “The cure for low prices is low prices.”
Here’s what’s supposed to happen...
Marginal producers can’t make money at today’s prices. Therefore they shut in wells (turn them off). As supplies get tighter, prices move higher.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 06, 2015
Is Russia Plotting To Bring Down OPEC? / Politics / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
President Putin's recent moves in the Middle East—to shore up Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria through deployment of combat aircraft, equipment, and manpower and build-out of air-, naval-, and ground-force bases, and the agreement in the last week with Iran, Iraq, and Syria on intelligence and security cooperation—could contribute to Russian efforts to combat the myriad negative pressures on Russia's vital energy industry. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 29, 2015
Crude Oil Price Is Going to Fall by 50%… Again / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
Michael Lewitt writes: We’ve talked about the massive Debt Supercycle and why it can only end in the market crash I’m now predicting. (If you want a refresher, download my “Super Crash Report.”)
But there’s one connection we haven’t made yet.
The same thing just happened in the energy market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 26, 2015
The Two Real Reasons Crude Oil Prices Are Currently Slipping / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
Each week, the report tells us what the crude oil and oil product markets looked like as of the previous Friday. It is usually the yardstick by which analysts appraise everything from oil supply through refinery utilization to the markets for processed products such as gasoline, diesel fuel, and low sulfur content heating oil.
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Monday, September 21, 2015
What the Fed's Interest Rate "Hold" Means for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: The nine years of historically low interest rates will continue in the wake of Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen's decision to not hike rates – to not yet remove the proverbial punchbowl from the easy-money party.
It was a classic "50-50" proposition; it didn't seem likely the Fed would move to roil global markets, but given the perceived strength of the labor market, a hike wasn't out of the question.
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Saturday, September 19, 2015
This Is What Needs To Happen For Crude Oil Prices To Stabilize / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
On September 10th the EIA reported a production decline in the Lower 48 -- essentially shale production -- of 208,000 BOPD. That is a staggeringly enormous number, approximately 10 percent of the estimated global over-supply. Additionally, it was a week-over-week number which makes it all the more impressive. Yet it received little attention through the week. Rather, Goldman Sachs was grabbing all the headlines with its $20 call on oil.
Friday, September 18, 2015
Crude Oil Price Rises 29% in One Week... Here's What It Means / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: DailyWealth
Thursday, September 17, 2015
What Today’s Fed Decision Means for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: After nine years of historically low interest rates, the Fed is finally getting ready to remove the proverbial punchbowl from the easy-money party.
As it stands, Yellen & Company are only contemplating a mere 25 basis rate hike and even that now seems unlikely.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the Fed Funds futures contracts are pricing in a below 25% chance of a rate hike later this afternoon.
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Tuesday, September 15, 2015
Crude Oil Price Forecast 2015 and 2016 / News_Letter / Crude Oil
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle Newsletter Sept 1st, 2015Issue # 16 Vol. 9
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Thursday, September 10, 2015
How Politics Make for Strange “Oil Fellows” / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: I have decided to write a long prelude today to a discussion that will conclude in the next edition of Oil & Energy Investor. There is something quite significant afoot. But in the process of describing what is happening now, I need to travel back, first personally some several decades, and then over a century earlier in literature.
When you read this I happen to be in Europe on one of those new high-speed trains. The conveyance may be a recent change, but the terrain whisking by my window is only too well remembered from an earlier life. This had at one time been a quite personal stage for some very high-risk objectives.
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Tuesday, September 08, 2015
The Default Next Move For Crude Oil Price Is Downwards, And Here's Why / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
As traders, investors and pundits, we all like to think that what we do is akin to a science. We believe that by working harder and being smarter we can give ourselves an edge, that enough research will reveal to us the next move, either a long term trend or an intraday blip on a chart, and that we can profit from that knowledge. Usually, especially over longer time spans, we are correct in that assumption. Sometimes, however, no amount of fundamental or technical analysis will help.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 05, 2015
Oil Stocks - Interim or Major Reversal? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
In the second half of August, Chinese equities have been under heavy selling pressure as a fear over China's slowing economy and worries that Beijing may allow the Yuan to continue to depreciate have weighed on investors' sentiment. Moreover, disappointing economic data fuelled that fears, which resulted in a sharp decline on China's stock market. In less than two weeks, the Shanghai Composite declined from (almost) 4,000 below the next psychologically important barrier of 3,000, hitting fresh 2015 lows.
Thursday, September 03, 2015
Crude Oil Price Sinking or Rebounding? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No speculative positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Tuesday, crude oil reversed and declined sharply as weak Chinese data weighed on investors' sentiment. As a result, the commodity approached support levels, but will they encourage oil bulls to act in the coming days?
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Thursday, September 03, 2015
How OPEC’s Attempt to Save Face Affects the Crude Oil Market / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
Well, that somebody is OPEC, and there is much more behind this development, leading to today’s discussion.
In its monthly report released on Monday, OPEC indicated it is now willing to discuss production levels with other non-OPEC countries. This is the first indication that the low crude oil price environment has been creating serious problems inside the cartel.
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Thursday, September 03, 2015
Crude Oil Price Forecast 2015 and 2016 - Video / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The crude oil price has relentlessly trended lower all year to an unimaginably low price low of $37 of just a few days ago, falling from $100 a year ago. The severe bear market has not only caught many market commentators off guard but has had a devastating impact on several major economies that are heavily reliant on high oil prices such as Russia, the gulf states, and other emerging markets reliant on their energy sector tax revenues to finance state spending and of course Britain's very own Scotland that a year ago was toying with idea of committing social and economic suicide (independence referendum).
Tuesday, September 01, 2015
OPEC Divorce And Self-Destruction Thanks To Saudi Crude Oil Strategy? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
"If you are the world's leading energy economy, you produce energy, that's what you do."
"A government can stay irrational longer than it can stay solvent."
"Even in the short term, you're dead, if you commit suicide."
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Tuesday, September 01, 2015
Is Crude Oil Price Bouncing Into Recovery? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Harry_Dent
The global economy has $57 trillion more debt now than it did at the last bubble peak in 2008. The energy sector alone has $248 billion in junk bond debt – some of the riskiest debt there is!Entire industries have been built upon this credit-fueled bubble, driven by the easy-money policies of central banks around the world.
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Tuesday, September 01, 2015
Crude Oil Price Forecast 2015 and 2016 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The crude oil price has relentlessly trended lower all year to an unimaginably low price low of $37 of just a few days ago, falling from $100 a year ago. The severe bear market has not only caught many market commentators off guard but has had a devastating impact on several major economies that are heavily reliant on high oil prices such as Russia, the gulf states, and other emerging markets reliant on their energy sector tax revenues to finance state spending and of course Britain's very own Scotland that a year ago was toying with idea of committing social and economic suicide (independence referendum).
Thursday, August 27, 2015
Crude Oil Price One-day Rebound or Something More? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $45.32 and profit-take order at $35.72 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Tuesday, crude oil gained 4.15% after China's central bank cut interest rates. Thanks to this news, light crude reversed and invalidated Monday’s breakdown under the support line. Despite this move, the commodity still remains under the barrier of $40. Will it stop further improvement in the coming days?
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Wednesday, August 26, 2015
Here’s What Happens When Crude Oil Geo-Policy and Market Reality Collide / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: Over 220 years ago, a Scottish writer by the name of Thomas Carlyle provided a personal account of what Paris was like during the French Revolution. The three-volume work (which at one point I suggested in an academic article was two volumes longer than necessary) is full of personal anecdotes. One of them is particularly relevant these days.
Tuesday, August 25, 2015
Saudis Could Face An Open Revolt At Next OPEC Oil Meeting / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
OPEC next gathers December 4 in Vienna, just over a year since Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi announced at the previous OPEC winter meeting the Saudi decision to let the oil market determine oil prices rather than to continue Saudi Arabia’s role of guarantor of $100+/bbl oil.
Despite the intense financial and economic pain this decision has inflicted on Saudi Arabia, its fellow OPEC members, and other oil producers, the Saudis have given no indication they plan to alter course. In fact, Saudis have downplayed the impact of lower prices on their country, asserting that the kingdom has the financial wherewithal to withstand lower oil prices.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 19, 2015
Crude Oil Energy Markets and Jobs Disintegrating / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Dan_Norcini
The US Energy Information Administration released their weekly data this morning as usual. The reaction to the data from crude oil was anything but the usual. Most everyone in the industry was looking for a draw in crude oil stockpiles especially after yesterday afternoon’s API data showed a reduction in supplies.
Wednesday, August 19, 2015
Crude Oil Price Time for Reversal? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Tuesday, crude oil gained 1.17% as hopes that crude oil inventories could decline for a third consecutive week weighed on investors' sentiment. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude bounced off its key support line, but will we see the commodity above $43 in near future?
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Wednesday, August 19, 2015
Crude Oil Price Works In Mysterious Ways / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
But there is one solution to staying ahead of oil's trend changes -- Elliott wave analysis
You know the expression "God works in mysterious ways"?
Well, according to an August 6 CNBC article, the price action of one financial market -- i.e., crude oil -- has out-mystified even God himself. Or, rather, the well-heeled star of the oil world, Andy Hall -- a.k.a. "God Trader."
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Tuesday, August 18, 2015
Energy Demand Collapse Followed by Supply Collapse / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nicole_Foss
As we have noted many times, energy is the master resource, and has been the primary driver of an expansion dating back to the beginning of the industrial revolution. In fossil fuels humanity discovered the ‘holy grail’ of energy sources – highly concentrated, reasonably easy to obtain, transportable and processable into many useful forms. Without this discovery, it is unlikely that any human empire would have exceeded the scale and technological sophistication of Rome at its height, but with it we incrementally developed the capacity to reach for the stars along an exponential growth curve.
Saturday, August 15, 2015
The World is Awash in Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
...But does that mean that oil prices will only go down from here?
In this new interview with Elliott Wave International's Chief Energy Analyst, Steve Craig, you'll learn where he sees prices going next.
*Editor's note: this interview was recorded on August 12; the price low cited in the video was broken on August 13.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 14, 2015
Crude Oil's Slippery Slope: How Far Will Prices Fall? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
One prominent analyst says oil prices will drop much further
Editor's note: You'll find the text version of the story below the video.
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Thursday, August 13, 2015
Crude Oil Price Reverses - Was that THE Bottom? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Crude oil declined yesterday, but the session was not without a rebound. In fact, the move higher continues also today as black gold is at almost $44. Have we just seen a major triple bottom in crude oil?
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Thursday, August 13, 2015
Saudi Crude Oil Strategy: Brilliant Or Suicide? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
In the last quarter of 2014, in the face of possible oversupply, Saudi Arabia abandoned its traditional role as the global oil market's swing producer and therefore it role as unofficial guarantor of existing ($100+ per barrel) prices. In October, Saudi sources first prepared the market with statements that the country would be comfortable with oil prices as low as $80 per barrel for "a year or two." At the November OPEC meeting, the Saudi oil minister, Ali Al-Naimi, publicly announced Saudi Arabia would allow market forces to set prices. He argued that rapidly growing production outside OPEC made the existing status quo unviable, and that lower prices in the short term would increase prices in the longer term through reduced investment and ultimately benefit all OPEC members.
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Thursday, August 13, 2015
The Saudi Crude Oil Price War Is Backfiring / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Saudi Arabia has long enjoyed the status of being the top crude oil exporter in the world. With record production of 10.564 million barrels per day in June 2015, Saudi Arabia has been one of the major driving forces behind the current oil price slump.The Saudis have kept their production levels high since last year in order to drive other players (especially U.S. shale drillers) out of business. Equally clear is the fact that this strategy of maintaining the glut and driving out rivals hasn't worked so far.
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Wednesday, August 12, 2015
What China’s Surprise Announcement Means for Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) just decided to cut the value of the Chinese currency, the yuan, by 2%.
The announcement took analysts by surprise and signaled that Beijing has decided to shore up a weakness in exports. It will now almost certainly usher in similar moves by other Asian countries that are China’s exporting competitors.
And behind that cut U.S. oil and gas producers face another painful period.
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Friday, August 07, 2015
Global Crude Oil Supply More Fragile Than You Think / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Many oil companies had trimmed their budgets heading into 2015 to deal with lower oil prices. But the rebound in April and May to $60 per barrel from the mid-$40s suggested that the severe drop was merely temporary.But the collapse of prices in July – owing to the Iran nuclear deal, an ongoing production surplus, and economic and financial concerns in Greece and China – have darkened the mood. Now a prevailing sense that oil prices may stay lower for longer has hit the markets.
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Thursday, August 06, 2015
Could WTI Crude Oil Price Trade At A Premium To Brent By Next Year? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
A flood of bearish news has pushed down oil prices to their lowest levels in months, with WTI nearing $45 per barrel and Brent flirting with sub-$50 territory. With a bear market back, there is pessimism throughout the oil markets. Goldman Sachs is even predicting oil stays at $50 through 2020, a profoundly grim view of the state of oil supplies.
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Thursday, August 06, 2015
Crude Oil Price Time for Reversal? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $65.23 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Tuesday, crude oil moved higher after the market's open supported by hopes for another decline in U.S. stockpiles. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude bounced off the multi-month low and gained 1.48%. Did this increase change anything in the short-term picture of the commodity?
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Wednesday, August 05, 2015
The Four Real Reasons Crude Oil Prices Are Slipping / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com
Dr. Kent Moors writes: As I write, I am flying from Kansas to Baltimore. I’ll be visiting Money Map Press headquarters to discuss some exciting developments we’ll tell you about shortly.
But today’s Oil & Energy Investor is all about where I have just been…
Years ago, a legendary wildcatter told me you have to smell the crude and get it under your fingernails before anybody should call you a genuine oilman.
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Tuesday, August 04, 2015
Top 6 Myths Driving Oil Prices Down / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
"Whoever would overthrow the liberty of a nation must begin by subduing the freeness of speech." ~ Benjamin Franklin, Silence Dogood, The Busy-Body, and Early Writings
I start with that quote because once the media, as well as politicians for that matter, have no accountability for actions or words then liberty will dissolve. Over the last few weeks I have witnessed another litany of lies that the media insists on putting forth. They come in the form of statements presented as facts to sway opinion while others are opinions quoted by others. Either way, the bias in talking down oil prices, reinforcing the "glut" that is fueled in part by misleading EIA and IEA data, is readily apparent.
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Tuesday, August 04, 2015
Crude Oil Price at Levels Not Seen Since March / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $65.23 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil declined sharply after news that production among OPEC members in July pushed supply at the oil cartel to its highest level in seven years. In this environment, light crude lost 3.45% and re-tested the Jul low. Where will oil bears take the commodity in the coming days?
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Monday, August 03, 2015
Crude Oil USO ETF Elliott Wave Analysis / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: WavePatternTraders
USO
It’s been 6 weeks since the last post of Oil http://www.wavepatterntraders.com/elliott-wave-analysis-of-uso-oil/ In that time we have a seen a great decline for those that have been short this market, looking at the gyrations I think based on the CL contract, I suspect USO is only ending wave 3, so whilst we should be close to a short term low for wave 3, the likelihood is that any bounce for wave 4 should prove to be a bull trap and then target new lows for wave 5.
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Wednesday, July 29, 2015
Crude Oil Price Is Lower – and You’re Richer / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com
Shah Gilani writes: On July 16, I gave you the real story on why oil prices are falling – and a trade to make you some easy money.
Since then, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. crude oil benchmark, is down 5%. As of midday yesterday, the October $15 puts on the United States Oil Fund LP ETF (NYSE ARCA: USO) that I recommended buying when they were trading at 50 cents each were up 40%, and trading at 70 cents each.
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Tuesday, July 28, 2015
Will Crude Oil Price Decline Continue? -Video / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
Elliott Wave International's Chief Energy Analyst tells you what he sees next for crude
In this new interview, Steve Craig, editor of Elliott Wave International's Energy Pro Service, shows you what extreme readings in some of his market indicators mean for crude from here.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 28, 2015
Saudis Expand Crude Oil Price War Downstream / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The undisputed king of oil and gas is making some moves that could change the face of the global refining sector.
In June 2015, Saudi Arabia pumped a record 10.564 million barrels a day, a record level. As if being the world's biggest exporter of oil was not enough, the desert kingdom is now looking to conquer the refining sector as it has quickly become the fourth largest refiner in the world.
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Tuesday, July 28, 2015
The Iran Nuclear Deal is Mostly about Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Browne
The recent nuclear non-proliferation agreement between Iran and the U.S. has created a firestorm debate in the Middle East and both sides of the Atlantic. While the deal is supposedly all about nuclear power and nuclear bombs, its practical implications are all about oil. But the conclusions we should make about its impact on the energy sector are far from clear. A ratification of the deal would allow Iran to make lucrative long term production and distribution contracts with foreign energy firms. However, freely flowing oil from Iran would add significant new oil supply into the world markets, disrupt U.S. plans to become an energy exporter, and could potentially put further downward pressure on prices.
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Monday, July 27, 2015
Crude Oil Price Under $48! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $65.23 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil extended losses after bearish Baker Hughes report. As a result, light crude lost 1.82% and hit a fresh multi-month low. Where will the commodity head next in the coming days?
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Friday, July 24, 2015
OPEC Shorts Are Driving Down the Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com
Dr. Kent Moors writes: The conflict between OPEC and U.S. shale/tight oil producers has entered a new phase. And the result has been an accelerated decline in oil prices.
Last November (on Thanksgiving no less), Saudi Arabia led an OPEC decision to hold production stable, followed by a later significant increase in volume. For the first time, the cartel had opted to protect market share rather than price.
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Thursday, July 23, 2015
Crude Oil Price Slump is a Once in a Decade Opportunity to Make Money, Guaranteed / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Atlantic_Perspective
All investments carry risk. There are no safe investments in the sense that “you just can´t lose”. But risk can be greatly reduced, according to the entry point and the timespan of the investment.The commodities cycle
The world is currently awashed in oil and natural gas. This is the reality of today. But as sure as day follows night, this glut will turn into production deficit over the next few years. All commodities traders know this and have seen gluts turn into deficits dozens of times, in different markets. Why does this happen?
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Wednesday, July 22, 2015
Crude Oil Price Barrier of $50 Holds - For Now / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $65.23 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Although crude oil declined after the market's open, hitting a fresh multi-month low, the commodity rebounded in the following hours and closed the day above the Jul 7 low. Did this upswing change anything in the short-term picture of crude oil?
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Thursday, July 16, 2015
The Multi-Trillion Dollar Oil Market Swindle / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
In the past, I documented the overstatements by both the IEA and EIA in 2014 & 2015 in terms of supply, inventory and understatements of demand. Others also noticed these distortions and, whether intentional or not, they exist and they are very large in dollar terms. These distortions, which are affecting price through media hype and/or direct/indirect price manipulation, are quite possibly the largest in financial history. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 15, 2015
OPEC, Get Ready For The Second U.S. Oil Boom / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
What OPEC countries fear most is a follow-up technological revolution that will lead to a second oil boom in the U.S., and that fear is now being realized. A technological revolution spurred the U.S. oil boom that resulted in the greatest increase in domestic oil production in a century, and while that has stuttered in the face of a major oil price slump and an OPEC campaign to maintain a grip on market share, the American response could be another technological revolution that demonstrates that the first one was merely an impressive embryonic experiment.
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Wednesday, July 08, 2015
Don't Panic, Nothing Has Really Changed In The Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Monday's 8% WTI crude decline is setting up a big opportunity for buyers. And there could be more to come. But this is driven by momentum, not by the fundamental conditions in the physical market.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 08, 2015
The Three Events That Just Sent Crude Oil Price Sinking… and Why There’s No Need to Panic / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: Yesterday, three geopolitical crises converged, sending the price of oil sinking.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for crude set in New York, was down 8%. Dated Brent, the internationally used benchmark set in London, slipped 6%.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 07, 2015
Brent Crude Oil Price Breaks out of Bearish Wedge / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: MarketsToday
Brent Crude broke down from a bearish rising wedge formation several weeks ago, trading relatively sideways thereafter, until the tail end of last week when it fell below and closed below $60.97. The 50% retracement at $57.41 was surpassed yesterday to the downside, with the next target being around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $54.53, followed by the most recent swing low (C) at $52.61.
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Saturday, July 04, 2015
Crude Oil Price Forecast to Plunge Below $40 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Gary_Savage
In the after hours trading on Thursday oil broke below the May daily cycle low indicating a failed daily cycle is in progress, and confirming the intermediate top occurred on May 6th.
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Friday, July 03, 2015
How the New Iranian Nuclear Deal Will Impact Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: This week, reports emerged that a draft deal on Iran’s nuclear program would be reviewed by the Western negotiators. Crude oil prices plummeted – West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed down 4.2%, at $56.96 a barrel, the lowest since April 22.
The concern spurring the decline is that an agreement would lift the Western sanctions and allow Iranian oil to flood into the market, propelling prices down.
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Wednesday, July 01, 2015
How the Latest Greek Drama Will Affect the Price of Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: In Greek history, there is a story that after devising the Athenian system of governance the great classical lawgiver Solon was walking down from the sacred council site of the Areopagus when he was greeted by another citizen.
“Well, Solon, did you give Athens the best constitution possible?” the fellow asked.
“No,” Solon responded. “I gave her the best constitution she could accept.”
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Monday, June 29, 2015
U.S. Crude Oil Glut An EIA Invention? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
In the latest weekly production data from the EIA, on the back of recent March revisions, the U.S. managed to post a 76,000 barrel per day increase in the lower 48. Production from Alaska fell by 61,000 barrels per day, putting overall U.S. output 15,000 barrels per day higher for the week ending June 12 compared to the previous week.This comes at a time when multimillion barrel draws have become the norm. It is important to note that lower 48 production is estimated based on an EIA black box model, while Alaska is virtually real time data. That suggests that the weekly supply estimates are hugely overestimated.
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Friday, June 26, 2015
Crude Oil Price Nearing Exhaustion / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Bob_Loukas
For an asset like Crude, which is normally extremely volatile, the current prolonged sideways range is very much out of character. Crude has us accustomed to daily swings of 2% to 3%, and to shorter term rallies/declines that draw in traders before reversing suddenly. Crude is generally an asset that fluctuates in price, so the current “flat-line” action is rare. Since the last Daily Cycle peaked on May 6th, Crude oil has been locked in a sideways trading range. Short term traders, expecting the usual crude oil volatility, are being chopped to pieces.
Wednesday, June 24, 2015
Why I'm Revising My Crude Oil Price Outlook… Upward / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Kent Moors writes: I just left a closed-door meeting in Paris. Assembled here were some high-powered oil practitioners, the traders selling their productions, and the bankers financing all of it.
As often happens, the pundits and talking heads have been discussing matters quite similar to what was on our agenda. And as usual, their perspectives are very different from those of us "behind the scenes."
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Wednesday, June 24, 2015
Expect A Wave Of Consolidation In The Oil Industry / Companies / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
As stated previously, asset monetization by small E&P operators will start in earnest in the second half of this year out of cash flow necessity. Most, if not all, smaller market capitalization companies, public or private, are still free cash flow negative (operating cash flow less capital expenditure) and only a few of the larger ones are now, or will be, based on guidance. The point is, with volumes languishing (and probably poised to decline) tied to a flat oil futures price curve and with economics marginal at $60 per barrel, many E&P operators find themselves running through hedges in 2015 and still in need to finance their already reduced capital spending.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 20, 2015
Where is the Crude Oil Price Heading Next / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Investment_U
Bob Creed writes: Last month, OPEC held its 167th meeting in Vienna, Austria. The two main takeaways?
- One: The oil cartel will maintain production at 30 million barrels per day (bpd), with unofficial numbers above that.
- Two: Saudi Arabia’s price war against U.S. shale producers will continue.
Saturday, June 13, 2015
The Latest Saudi Ploy to Control World Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: From the hundreds of oil benchmark rates used around the world, two set daily have been dominant in determining the prices for the buying and selling of crude. One is Dated Brent, set in London and representing the average price from a basket of North Sea offshore production. The other is West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the grade set in New York.
As I have noted often in Oil & Energy Investor, Brent is applied more often in international trade than WTI. However, both of these benchmarks are better oil grades than well over 80% of all the oil actually traded.
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Thursday, June 11, 2015
Busting The "Canadian Bakken" Shale Oil Myth / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The financial pages of Canadian newspapers have been full of headlines lately announcing the potential of two large shale oil fields in the Northwest Territories said to contain enough oil to rival the Bakken Formation of North Dakota and Montana. The report by Canada's National Energy Board (NEB) evaluated, for the first time, the volume of oil in place for the Canol and Bluefish shale formations, located in the territory's Mackenzie Plain. It found the "thick and geographically extensive" Canol formation is expected to contain 145 billion barrels of oil, while the "much thinner" Bluefish shale contains 46 billion barrels.
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Wednesday, June 10, 2015
key Issues Affecting the London Oil Market Today / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: Greetings from London, where I am hosting a special three-day event for a special group of subscribers. The sessions follow almost a year of preparation and are introducing a major stimulus to profits from investing in worldwide energy.
You will be hearing more about this approach in the future, so stay tuned.
Today, however, we have an immediate development to consider. The London market is again trying to make sense of events in oil. As I have noted here in Oil & Energy Investor on many occasions, the oil trade in London and the Dated Brent benchmark set here daily are more sensitive to global events than the trade in New York (where the other major benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, is set).
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Thursday, June 04, 2015
The Evolution Of The Oil Weapon / Politics / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
In the age of derivatives, swaps, and electronic money transfers, a new form of warfare has emerged: financial warfare. Recently, the US has passed sanctions on countries such as Syria, Venezuela, and North Korea , but the majority of energy related sanctions passed have been targeted at Iran and Russia.
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Tuesday, June 02, 2015
Why Oil’s Price Is Baffling Analysts (but Not Us) / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: It sure has been amusing to watch the oil instant experts trying to shove “square peg” explanations into “round hole” price moves this week.
For most of yesterday’s trading session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices were declining about 1% after a huge 4.5% rise on Friday. Once again, the “experts” had instant prognostications, once again they signaled a familiar refrain – a strong dollar, oversupply – and once again they missed the boat.
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Saturday, May 30, 2015
U.S. Crude Oil Production Sets New Modern Record / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
EIA Report
Tuesday, May 26, 2015
Crude Oil Price Stochastic Signals / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $65.23 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
The Stochastic indicator is quite a popular tool for commodity traders (including those interested in trading crude oil and precious metals) and it is not without a reason. This indicator has proven itself many times as something that can really indicate the next move in the market – however, it has to be applied carefully, as not all ways in which it works are really profitable. We have just seen 2 signals from this important indicator – one bullish (based on daily closing prices) and one bearish (based on weekly closing prices). Which should one focus on?
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Wednesday, May 20, 2015
Three Hidden Forces Pushing Crude Oil Price Back Up / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: The overall trajectory for oil prices remains upward, despite taking a breather today. I still see prices reaching $65-68 for West Texas Intermediate (WTI, the benchmark traded on the NYMEX) and $73-78 for Dated Brent (the other major benchmark set daily in London).
But this is hardly going to be a straight, linear rise. Rather, it’s going to occur in what I call a “ratcheting” pattern: occasionally jerking downward along the way.
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Tuesday, May 19, 2015
Crude Oil Trading Alert - Price Drops to Neck Line / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $65.23 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil gained 0.49% as a weaker greenback supported the price. As a result, light crude bounced off the neck line of a bearish formation. Will we see further improvement in the coming days?
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Wednesday, May 13, 2015
Debunking the Newest Crude Oil Price Myth / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: We've seen massive shifts in crude oil prices in recent weeks.
Of course, this has brought back some rather specious arguments by talking heads on TV and pundits spinning the next Armageddon scenario.
The latest is about how rising oil prices will prompt more volume to come online from a particular type of well (called DUCs), sending oil into another tailspin.
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Wednesday, May 13, 2015
Saudi Arabia Continues To Turn Screws On U.S. Oil Shale / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Saudi Arabia continues to ratchet up production, taking market share away from U.S. shale producers.According to OPEC's latest monthly oil report, Saudi Arabia boosted its oil output to 10.31 million barrels per day in April, a slight increase over the previous month's total of 10.29 million barrels. That was enough for the de facto OPEC leader to claim its highest oil production level in more than three decades.
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Wednesday, May 13, 2015
The Real Key to This Week’s Crude Oil Price Uncertainty / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: Quick update on oil, because it’s been quite the week already…
This morning West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark crude oil futures rate in New York, rose over $1 a barrel in less than three hours. Meanwhile in London, Brent (the more widely used international dated benchmark) has increased even faster – over $1.50 during the same period. Here’s where we stand as I write this:
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Monday, May 11, 2015
Is Crude Oil Price Rally Over? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $65.23 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil moved lower after the market’s open weakened by a stronger U.S. dollar. Despite this move, the commodity reversed and rebounded in the following hours, gaining 0.85% and closing the day above $59, but did this upswing change anything?
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Sunday, May 10, 2015
Crude Oil Price Turn Coming? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Dan_Norcini
Crude has had a very nice recovery off its recent low set in mid-March with a steady climb of nearly $20 since that time. The push through the declining 50 day moving average was the first real clue that the complexion of this market had changed in late March with the deciding factor being the second thrust back up through it once more in early April. That cemented the low near $43 as a solid bottom in the market.
Friday, May 08, 2015
The Newest Crude Oil Price Myth / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: We’ve seen massive shifts in crude oil prices over the past two days.
Of course, this has brought back some rather specious arguments by talking heads on TV and pundits spinning the next Armageddon scenario. The latest is about how rising oil prices will prompt more volume to come online from a particular type of well (called DUCs), sending oil into another tailspin.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 07, 2015
How to Pick the Winners in the Keystone Oil Pipeline Debate / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com You might think the entire oil and gas industry is behind the Keystone XL Pipeline. And at the surface level that may be true. After all, the big oil industry lobby, the American Petroleum Institute (API), has spent millions promoting it through advertising and outreach to members of Congress. API are the folks who brought us all of those pro-Keystone commercials a few months ago.
Since API represents the industry, with over 600 members, the project must be good for everyone in the energy space, right?
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Thursday, May 07, 2015
Crude Oil Price Hit 2015 High / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
Oil hit 2015 high with WTI at $60.40 and Bent at $68.40 end of trading on Tuesday. Crude prices have now risen 50% in just over three months. The overall oil market sentiment is very bullish as CNBC reported hedge funds and money managers raised bets on rising Brent prices to another record, data showed on Monday, pushing net long positions to their highest since official exchange records began in 2011.
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Wednesday, May 06, 2015
Keystone Pipeline and the Mixed Blessings of Cheap Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com To understand the logic behind the Keystone XL pipeline requires a trip back in time. When Keystone and its associated 830,000 barrels of oil per day were announced in 2008, U.S. crude production was at lows generally not seen since 1950 – right around 5 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, U.S. oil imports were rampant, near their all-time highs of 10 million barrels a day. Worse yet, over half of U.S. imports, again a near-record high of 5.6 million barrels per day, came from countries that don’t like us very much (i.e., OPEC).
Wednesday, May 06, 2015
Crude Oil’s Big Move Comes Down to One Thing / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: Look at this headline from the Houston Business Journal last week: “U.S. Rig Count Free Falls in Texas, Oil Prices ‘Unsustainable.'”
Or this one from Bloomberg Business, which reported Sunday: “The Shale Boom Has Already Gone Bust.”
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Tuesday, May 05, 2015
The Truth Behind the Keystone Pipeline / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Editor's Note: The Keystone Pipeline has created one of the biggest political debates of the last five years. And you're about to hear a lot more in the media as the we move closer to the State Department's final ruling on the project.
But what is the truth about Keystone? And where are the lies hidden? More importantly, where can we invest to exploit its ongoing political soap opera?
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Tuesday, May 05, 2015
Crude Oil Price Meets Solid Resistance / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Although crude oil hit a fresh 2015 high on Friday, an increase in Iraq's export levels and a stronger greenback weighed on investors' sentiment and pushed the commodity lower. As a result, light crude lost 0.85% and closed the day under the previous high. Where will crude oil head next in the coming week?
On Friday, Baker Hughes showed in its weekly report that oil rigs fell by 24 last week to 679. With this drop, the number of active rigs has fallen for a record 21 weeks in a row (the lowest level since September 2010), but the pace of slowdown continued to decrease, which raised worries over another increase in domestic crude oil inventories.
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Saturday, May 02, 2015
Crude Oil Price Bear Market Is Over / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Austin_Galt
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Forget about testing the 2009 lows. It ain't gonna happen. Not as far as I'm concerned anyway. The final low appears to be in place and while I think the downtrend is over I suspect the volatility is not.
Let's check out the technicals beginning with the small picture and then finishing with the big picture outlook.
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Friday, May 01, 2015
How One Chart Is Changing My Outlook on Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Today, something truly unique is underway – and you can see it clearly in the one simple chart I’m about to share.
The advent of huge shale and tight oil reserves in the U.S. has fundamentally altered the terrain of the international energy game.
We still call these reserves “unconventional” to distinguish them from traditional vertically drilled non-fracked wells. But due to the fact that most of the new production is coming from these rock-confined sources, they are certainly becoming mainstream.
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Thursday, April 23, 2015
U.S. Oil Glut: How High Can It Go? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: GoldSilverWorlds
Oil Glut Build in PAD3 Gulf Coast
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Wednesday, April 22, 2015
How to Profit from the Drop in the Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: GoldSilverWorlds
Over the past three quarters, the world has watched oil prices plummet from over $100 to its current price of $51/barrel of the grade West Texas Intermediate (WTI). Due to oil’s vital role in the global economy, this massive decline naturally raises questions as to the reasons behind the decline and the perdurability of these lower oil prices. Today we will give you a more in-depth analysis of what is going on in the oil market and offer potential investment implications resulting from these developments.
Monday, April 20, 2015
Crude Oil Price Bull Market Hope / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Bob_Loukas
I believe that energy analysts are absolutely delusional to think Crude production will slow significantly, especially with Oil back near the $60 mark. During the recent, lengthy bull market, tens of billions of Dollars were invested in Crude infrastructure, so there is too much at stake to simply shut down operations and walk away. Investors and participants in any industry that has experienced a 15 year bull market won't change their beliefs overnight - it takes time for sentiment to shift. Most are far too emotionally and financially vested in the industry, so it's unreasonable to think that a 9 month decline is going to drive an immediate adjustment to the imbalance in supply and demand.
Friday, April 17, 2015
Production Declines Hide Bigger Crude Oil Storage Issues / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
Storage BuildsCushing added another 1.3 million barrels to weekly storage and stands at 61.5 million barrels. The Gulf Coast added another 600 thousand barrels to storage and stands at 237 million barrels. By comparison Cushing had 26.8 million barrels in storage this time last year, and the Gulf Coast had 207.2 million barrels in storage a year ago.
Friday, April 17, 2015
Top Three Takeaways From Today’s OPEC Crude Oil Report… and How You Can Profit / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Today I’ve got a “below the surface” read on what is really happening inside OPEC.
Frankly, I had not planned to devote so many essays to the cartel and its policies. After all, the organization is no longer the center of the energy universe.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 16, 2015
More Thoughts on the Current Crude Oil Market / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
WTI surged to close at $56.01 a barrel on Wednesday, while Brent closed at $62.86 after the US crude oil inventories showed a 'less-than-expected increase'. The latest weekly inventory (week ending April 10) from EIA showed an increase of 1.3 million barrels, much less than the 10.9 million barrels of build from the previous week. The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles rose by 2.0 million barrels.
Wednesday, April 15, 2015
OPEC Going Broke, Dumping U.S. Dollars. Is That Good Or Bad? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Rubino
When oil prices fell out of bed last winter there was much hand-wringing over the fate of the former beneficiaries of high-priced crude. Trillions of dollars of junk bonds issued by frackers, for instance, might default, oil field services companies could fail, and layoffs in the oil patch might swamp the nascent employment recovery.
Some of this has happened, though not on the apocalyptic scale the worst-case scenarios suggested. More might be coming, but right now it’s not headline news in North America.
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Wednesday, April 15, 2015
OPEC Just Confirmed It’s Losing the Oil War / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: The solid façade of OPEC is crumbling.
The latest indication that all is not well within the ranks of the oil cartel came yesterday, when the organization released its monthly Bulletin.
Inside the magazine, the commentary slammed non-member nations for failing to follow the organization’s lead in “stabilizing” oil prices and having “go it alone” attitudes.
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Wednesday, April 15, 2015
Crude Oil Price Technical Outlook / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Donald_W_Dony
Following part 1 of the Technical outlook for oil on April 7, this report examines the effect of the secular Commodity cycle on stocks (S&P 500), the U.S dollar on the CRB and WTIC's price since 1980.
Chart 1 is the S&P 500 since 1960. It traces the different trading patterns of the U.S. index during a secular Commodity cycle (1965-1980), a Stock cycle (1980-2000) and through another Commodity cycle (2000-2013) and the beginning of a new Stock cycle (2013 to present).
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Friday, April 10, 2015
Oil Price - How Much Longer Can OPEC Hold Out? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
OPEC has been the most talked about international organization among investors, analysts and international political lobbies in the last few months.
When OPEC speaks, the world listens in rapt attention as it accounts for nearly 40 % of the world's total crude output. With its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, one of the mandates of 12- member OPEC is to "ensure the stabilization of oil markets in order to secure an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consumers, a steady income to producers, and a fair return on capital for those investing in the petroleum industry." (Source: opec.org).
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Friday, April 10, 2015
Saudi Arabia Just Delivered Another Strike in the “Oil War” / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Saudi Arabia just sent the most powerful signal yet it means business in the “Oil War.”
On Tuesday, oil minister Ali al-Naimi revealed Saudi oil production jumped in March to 10.3 million barrels a day.
That marked an increase of 700,000 barrels per day from February, or the biggest ramp in production since November 2011. That figure is now expected to remain around 10 million barrels for some time.
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Thursday, April 09, 2015
Iran Nuclear "Deal" Won't Drive Crude Oil Prices Lower / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Here at Money Morning we recently had the opportunity to sit down with Dr. Kent Moors, Money Map Press' Global Energy Strategist, for a quick chat about oil.
Kent had taken time out of his frequent world travels – scoping out the latest global energy profit developments – to stop by our HQ in Baltimore.
Here's what he told us about his "ground level" view of the real impact recent geopolitical events in Iran will have on the price of oil.
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Thursday, April 09, 2015
Top 12 Media Myths On Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The upstream oil and gas industry is not a black hole. There's no mystery wrapped in an enigma here.
There are a lot of meetings with engineers, chemists and geologists. There's a constantly evolving learning curve. And then there's all the regulations and compliance. But all-in-all it's pretty straight forward, that is, until the media gets a hold of it. That's when it becomes complicated. It's as though we are getting reports from the mysteries of the deep ocean or life in the great galaxies beyond. There is so much hyperbole and unsupported guesswork that investors don't have a chance. So, in a small effort to set the record straight, let's see if we can't dispel some of the misinformation.
Thursday, April 09, 2015
Crude Oil Price Breaks Above One Support, but the More Important One Still Holds / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
The last 2 days were quite encouraging for crude oil bulls as the black gold rallied above 2 declining resistance lines and the volume during yesterday's upswing was high. Is this enough to make the outlook bullish?
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Wednesday, April 08, 2015
The Technical Outlook for Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Donald_W_Dony
Commodities normally go through a multi-year phase of strength and performance against the benchmark S&P 500 and then an approximate equal period of time of underperformance to the U.S. index.
Each stage of this Commodity/Stock cycle, lasts on average about 18 years. This has been the pattern for over 100 years.
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Tuesday, April 07, 2015
Brent Crude Oil Price Looks to be Heading Higher From Here / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: MarketsToday
Brent Crude looks to have started a second leg up off the January bottom of 45.22, indicating Brent has a good chance of heading higher from here. A decisive drop below the most recent swing low at 52.61 changes the bullish scenario shown in the below daily chart.
Tuesday, March 24, 2015
Thoughts on The Current Crude Oil Market / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
Crude oil has slid into a definitive bear market starting 2H14. Since most of the oil companies (majors as well as E&Ps) based their budget, growth, and strategy trajectory on ~$50 oil price scenario even for the most conservative, the current ~ $45 WTI price environment has created a crisis situation for many oil and gas producers.
Friday, March 20, 2015
Beware of Pundits Playing the "Iran Oil Card" / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: It's getting to be crunch time in the negotiations between the West and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program.
Despite an ill-advised attempt by U.S. senators to scuttle the talks, it's clear the negotiations in Geneva will continue.
Now, TV pundits have taken to the airwaves suggesting that an agreement would flood the market with Iranian oil.
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Friday, March 20, 2015
What the “Yellen Effect” Ultimately Means for Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Janet Yellen sure has a way with the markets…
As the Fed Chair delivered her unexpectedly dovish message, the Dow bounced almost 400 points off yesterday’s lows.
Even so, that move paled in comparison to the even bigger move she triggered in oil prices.
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Wednesday, March 18, 2015
The Truth About Iran’s Impact on Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Kent Moors writes: It’s getting to be crunch time in the negotiations between the West and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program.
Despite an ill-advised attempt by U.S. Senators to scuttle the talks, it’s clear the negotiations in Geneva will continue.
Now, TV pundits have taken to the airwaves suggesting that an agreement would flood the market with Iranian oil.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
Why Lower Crude Oil Prices Could Drive Gold Higher / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Bob_Kirtley
We view gold as monetary asset; therefore our directional views on the yellow metal are primarily a function of our expectations of monetary policy. After being very bullish on gold in the years following the global financial crisis as the Fed pursued highly accommodative monetary policy and quantitative easing, we turned bearish on gold at the end of 2012 as the period of easing monetary policy appeared to be coming to an end. We have maintained our bearish stance as the Fed has moved towards tightening monetary policy, however the recent fall in oil prices has caused us to question our view, and whilst we remain bearish over the longer term, we now think that gold prices could bounce from current levels.
Thursday, March 12, 2015
Consumers Winning With Low Oil Prices, For Now / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Lest we be too quick to forget whence we came, America is now 9-months into lower gasoline prices, which started their swoon the week of June 30, 2015 from a lofty national average just under $3.70, tumbling almost every subsequent week before bottoming and bouncing from $2.02 the end of January, according to gasbuddy.com.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Everyone Is Guessing When It Comes To Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Predicting and diagnosing the trajectory of oil prices has become something of a cottage industry in the past year. But along with all of the excess crude flowing from the oil patch, there is also an abundance of market indicators that while important, tend to produce a lot of noise that makes any accurate estimate nearly impossible. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 05, 2015
U.S. Soaring Crude Oil Stocks - Cushing and Gulf Coast Storage Filling Up Fast / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
Cushing, Oklahoma
The weekly EIA Inventory report came out today regarding the state of the oil market from the supply side, and the numbers continue to paint a bearish picture of the oil market. For example, Cushing added another one and a half million barrels to storage this past week, that`s three million added over the last two weeks to storage facilities.
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Wednesday, March 04, 2015
How to Exploit Crude Oil's Current Low Price / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Peter Krauth writes: If you've been eyeing a new gas-guzzling SUV as your next vehicle, you may want to reconsider that Prius once more. That's because today's low gas prices won't be around forever and oil prices aren't about to "tank" any time soon.
In fact, the oil price crash has created a state of "contango," a market anomaly that savvy investors can exploit. It's presenting a rare market opportunity to profit that only comes around once every few years.
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Wednesday, March 04, 2015
Here's What Will Send Crude Oil Prices Back Up Again / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil's rapid decline since August of last year has been dramatic. To listen to some commentators you would also think it is unprecedented and irreversible. Those claiming that oil will continue to fall from here and remain low for evermore, however, are flying in the face of both history and common sense. The question we should be asking ourselves is not if oil prices will recover, but when they will. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 26, 2015
Scraping The Bottom Of The WTI Crude Oil Price Barrel In 2015 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Anthony Alfidi writes: Energy sector investors are waiting for a bottom in oil prices. Industrial energy users are looking for a hard price to use as a benchmark for hedging their consumption. A generation's worth of history allows us to make an educated guess about where the bottom price of the 2015 oil market glut may appear.
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Wednesday, February 25, 2015
This Massive “Crunch” Means Higher Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: As oil prices inch forward, there’s an inevitable consequence of lower prices building that will help them climb even higher.
It’s called the “reserve crunch.”
Faced with significantly lower oil prices, the replenishment of oil reserves is beginning to take a massive hit.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 24, 2015
The Easy Oil Is Gone So Where Do We Look Now? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
In 2008, Canadian economist Jeff Rubin stunned the oil market with a bold prediction: With the world economy growing at 5 percent a year, oil demand would grow with it, outpacing supply, thus lifting the oil price from $147 to over $200 a barrel. The former chief economist at CIBC World Markets was so convinced of his thesis, he wrote a book about it. "Why the World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller" forecast a sea change in the global economy, all driven by unsustainably high oil prices, where domestic manufacturing is reinvigorated at the expense of seaborne trade and people's choices become driven by the ever-increasing prices of fossil fuels.
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Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Is Crude Oil Price Returning To $100 Or Dropping To $10? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
If you have been following the price of oil over the last few months, the chances are you're a little confused. On the one hand you have the likes of A. Gary Shilling who, in this Bloomberg article, loudly trumpets the prospect of oil at $10/Barrel, and on the other there is T. Boone Pickens, who, at the end of last year was predicting a return to $100 within 12-18 months. Pickens prediction has moderated somewhat as WTI and Brent crude have continued to fall, but in January he was still saying that oil would return to $70 or $80/barrel in the near future. So, who is correct?
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Thursday, February 19, 2015
What This "Ice Level" Means to Future Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
D.R. Barton writes: You'd have to be living under a rock (and one without Internet access at that) to have missed the oil price swoon that has taken place since June.
Even after a recent bounce back from an under-$50 per barrel low, and a trough-to-peak rebound of 24% since the end of January, the technical picture does not indicate smooth sailing upward from here.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 19, 2015
Why Crude Oil Prices Must Go Up / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
It may be difficult to look beyond the current pricing environment for oil, but the depletion of low-cost reserves and the increasing inability to find major new discoveries ensures a future of expensive oil.
While analyzing the short-term trajectory of oil prices is certainly important, it obscures the fact that over the long-term, oil exploration companies may struggle to bring new sources of supply online. Ed Crooks over at the FT persuasively summarizes the predicament. Crooks says that 2014 is shaping up to be the worst year in the last six decades in terms of new oil discoveries (based on preliminary data).
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Thursday, February 19, 2015
Crude Oil Price Double Top or Further Rally? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Although crude oil moved lower after the market's open weakened by concerns over the situation in Ukraine and Greece, the commodity rebounded as weaker U.S. dollar supported the price. As a result, light crude gained 1.08% and climbed above an important resistance, but is it as bullish as it seems at the first sight?
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Monday, February 16, 2015
What the Bearish Analysts Missed About Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Pundits continue to wrongly predict more pain in oil markets.
Citigroup analyst Ed Morse just came out with his most bearish forecast yet, claiming oil prices could fall to $20 a barrel. As for the recent rebound, Morse thinks it looks more like a "head-fake" than a sustainable turning point.
The market, of course, has ignored these concerns, as crude oil prices continue to climb.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 14, 2015
As Oil Prices Climb, Here’s How to Play the Rebound in Energy / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: As I write this, crude oil prices continue to advance. Brent is over $61 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is pushing $53.
Both are higher than at any time since before Christmas.
Absent any major geopolitical tension, beyond the levels we’re already seeing, oil prices should begin to level off.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 13, 2015
Low Crude Oil Prices Are an Act of Economic Warfare / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
This is a wonderful time to have cash and be in the oil business, according to Bob Moriarty of 321energy.com. That's because savvy juniors can go shopping for assets being sold as "uneconomic" when oil is $40–50/barrel. But the low price won't last, he tells The Energy Report, predicting much higher oil within the year. And while that increase will cause oil stocks to rise in tandem, Moriarty reminds investors that it still pays to be selective.
The Energy Report: Bob, in January you published an article saying that the drop in oil prices could be the "straw that pops the $7-trillion derivative bubble." Can you explain the influence of oil prices on derivatives?
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 11, 2015
Citi Sees $20 Crude Oil Prices - Here’s Why They’re Wrong / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Despite a 20% jump in oil prices, some pundits continue to predict more pain.
In fact, just yesterday, Citigroup analyst Ed Morse came out with his most bearish forecast yet.
According to Morse, oil prices could fall another 60% to $20 a barrel. As for the recent rebound, Morse thinks it looks more like a “head-fake” than a sustainable turning point.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 10, 2015
Oil's Survival Of The Fittest / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
With crude oil prices collapsing and small American oil producers faced with grim choices for survival, the Darwinian nature of commodity market cycles rears its head, dictating that only the fittest will survive -- and only the fittest of the fittest will thrive. As the herd of small companies that formed the backbone of the shale boom is culled, there emerges a new focus on junior players who are sitting on prime prospects where oil can be produced at $20 per barrel or lower and still turn a healthy profit at today's prices hovering around $45 - $52 range. The biggest winners will be those investors who are stepping into the market right now, investing in conventional oil stories.
Monday, February 09, 2015
Crude Oil Price Capitulation Phase / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Bob_Loukas
After a long and relentless decline, the Crude market has finally enabled us to anchor its Cycles. Up until 2 weeks ago, Crude was locked in a clear crash Cycle, which made it impossible to expect anything other than a continuation of the crash. But now that Crude has reversed with a 20% rally, its moves are clearly the start of a new intermediate term Cycle.
Sunday, February 08, 2015
Has Crude Oil Price Finally Bottomed? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Toby_Connor
Has oil finally bottomed? I think yes… well at least temporarily. Let me explain.
The main culprit driving the CRB and oil down over the last 7 months has been the powerful surge in the dollar.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 03, 2015
Why Crude Oil Price Is Headed to $200 a Barrel / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Investment_U
David Fessler writes: Editorial Note: As promised last week, here is David Fessler’s rebuttal to Sean Brodrick’s piece, “3 Reasons Why Crude Will Stay Under $50 Through 2015.” If you read the title of today’s article, you might think Dave and Sean have vastly differing opinions on the direction oil is heading. But to the contrary, both agree prices will move higher... the only question is, when? To help confirm his assertions, Dave reached out to an oil industry connection who served as president of one of the largest producers in the world.
Thursday, January 29, 2015
Increasing Demand For Refined Products Will Increase Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Dan Steffens writes: In last week's article I posted a chart from the International Energy Agency'srecent Oil Market Report that shows global demand for refined products catching up to supply by the 3rd quarter of this year. My opinion is that all of the analysts who are now blaming the sharp drop in oil prices on a "glut" of supply could change their tune quickly as consumers adjust to lower fuel costs. Just as higher costs reduce demand for any commodity, lower costs will increase demand. This is especially true for a commodity that has a direct impact on standard of living, like oil does.
Thursday, January 29, 2015
Saudi Arabia Changes Kings, But Not its Oil Policy / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Last Friday, I appeared on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” to discuss the new Saudi King Salman and his impact on oil prices.
The interview was set up on a flight back to Pittsburgh, and took place via satellite feed almost as soon as I landed.
Now, these hastily put together appearances can be somewhat trying if the anchors are not up to speed on the material.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 28, 2015
Crude Oil Price Bulls vs. Resistance Zone / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Tuesday, crude oil gained 1.55% after mixed U.S. data weakened the greenback. As a result, light crude climbed above $46, but the nearest resistance still keeps gains in check. Will we see higher values of the commodity in the coming days?
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Tuesday, January 27, 2015
Oil Prices Changing The Face Of Global Geopolitics / Politics / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
In a documentary that aired recently on the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation's popular The Fifth Estate program, an allegory of Vladimir Putin was presented. The wily Russian president was described growing up in a shabby St. Petersburg apartment, where he would often corner rats. Now, punished by low oil prices and Western sanctions against Russian incursions in Ukraine/ Crimea, Putin is himself the cornered rat. Many wonder, and fear, what he will do if conditions in Russia become increasingly desperate.
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Thursday, January 22, 2015
Crushing The U.S. Oil and Gas Energy Export Dream / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Exporting crude oil and natural gas from the United States are among the dumbest energy ideas of all time. Exporting gas is dumb.
Exporting oil is dumber.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 15, 2015
What to Make of the Surge in Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: There are a few historical figures I greatly admire, even though I have pronounced personal problems with some of their opinions.
Winston Churchill leads the list.
On November 9, 1942, Churchill uttered these famous words at a London luncheon: “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
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Thursday, January 15, 2015
The Oil-Fueled Economic Cycle / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Harry_Dent
I’ve been focusing on this fracking and high-yield debt bubble precisely because it’s most likely to become the new trigger that the housing and subprime bubble was to the last global financial crisis in 2008/2009.
Bubbles just go on and on until they either get so extremely high that they burst of their own weight — as with the tech bubble — or more often when something triggers defaults that then cascade through the very debt markets that helped create the bubble.
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Wednesday, January 14, 2015
5 Ways To Play The Oil Price Plunge / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The collapse of the oil price has created losers and winners, and like every major movement in a commodity sector, the trick for investors is figuring out which side of the trade to be on. The most obvious victim of the slide in Brent and WTI prices over the last 6 months has been the major oil producers. Holders of these equities have seen price slides up to 33 percent. The question for oil company investors now is how to determine which of these companies are prepared to weather a sustained period of oil prices around $50 a barrel, or worse. Inevitably, those companies with high debt levels combined with high operating costs will be the first to get washed away. In contrast, low-leveraged companies with attractive cost structures are likely to survive. These companies will gain when the oil price comes back, and are the ones that investors should be eyeing right now. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 13, 2015
The New Normal for Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Marin_Katusa
You may have come across the word “contango” in an oil-related news report or article recently and wondered, “What’s contango?”
It isn’t the Chinese version of the tango.
Contango is a condition in a commodity market where the futures price for the commodity is higher than the current spot price. Essentially, the future price of oil is higher than what oil is worth today.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 10, 2015
Crude Oil Price Forecasts / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Investment_U
Rachel Gearhart writes: This week’s chart looks at oil prices from December 2012 through the end of 2014. It also does something quite interesting. It shows predictions out to June 2016. To create the chart, we looked at forecasts from Goldman Sachs, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg and the futures market.
As you can see in the chart, analysts and Goldman Sachs forecast a strong rebound in oil prices.
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Saturday, January 10, 2015
Crude Oil Price Ten Year Forecast to 2025: Importers Set to Receive a $600 Billion Refund / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
This is an update on a long-term oil price forecasting model developed in early 2008 first posted in April 2009 as “The Impending Mother of All Oil Shocks” which was updated in December 2010 and posted as “Crude Oil Price Ten Year Forecast to 2020”.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24849.html
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10260.html
Saturday, January 10, 2015
The Other Side of the “Oil Glut” / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: The pundits continue to hawk the same reasons for the fall in oil prices.
These are always “spearheaded” by comments about surging global supply led by the onslaught of unconventional (tight and shale) oil production in the U.S.
Invariably, what’s missed by these “TV sages” are the pricing dynamics kicking in that virtually guarantee an increase in oil prices as we move into 2015.
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Saturday, January 10, 2015
Euro and Oil in the Year Ahead 2015 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: HRA_Advisory
There was enough good news in the US through December to send all the major indices in New York except NASDAQ to new all-time highs and the tech index isn’t far off. It’s all rainbows and ponies on Wall St right now which should make any sensible person a bit nervous.
As I expected oil is still in the dumps and that state of affairs should last for a while. As noted in the last issue this big a drop in oil prices is a stimulus though it’s a smaller stimulus in the US than Wall St. wants to believe. Expectations are high after the US printed 5% GDP growth in Q3. That was indeed impressive and cheaper oil should help generate good growth numbers in Q4 and Q1 2015. Things may tail off after that though.
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Friday, January 09, 2015
The Real Cause Of Low Oil Prices: Interview With Arthur Berman / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
With all the conspiracy theories surrounding OPEC's November decision not cut production, is it really not just a case of simple economics? The U.S. shale boom has seen huge hype but the numbers speak for themselves and such overflowing optimism may have been unwarranted. When discussing harsh truths in energy, no sector is in greater need of a reality check than renewable energy. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 08, 2015
Sub $50 Crude Oil - Unbelievable Lack of Trust in the System - Video / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: David_Morgan
If the oil sector unraveled, as it is doing now, what would happen to gold and silver prices? David Morgan of Silver-Investor.com thinks, “Gold, I am pretty sure, would maintain right where it’s at, and that would be the worst case scenario, or it would go up and go up rapidly. Gold and silver may go down temporarily like we saw in 2008, but they will catch a bottom and come up. Silver in a deflationary environment has not done that well in the past. . . . Gold and silver are crisis hedges. People will say I don’t know what is happening. I’m scared. I need something I can trust. You can trust money that has been money for 5,000 years.
Thursday, January 08, 2015
Two Strategies to Profit as Crude Oil Price Drops Below $50 a Barrel / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: DailyGainsLetter
The energy sector was dismal in 2014 and it is looking like we could see more of the same for this year. If you are long on oil, you may want to read this, as oil prices could move lower and there are two strategies you can consider to profit from their drop: put options and futures.
Currently, we have the excessive supply overriding the declining demand as the global economy struggles along. China just announced its gross domestic product (GDP) growth would fall to seven percent this year; however, I think the real figure is likely already below seven percent, as there’s some fudging of the numbers. The eurozone could dwindle into another recession or see flat growth, and Russia is clearly heading for another recession in 2015, as long as President Putin continues to refuse to conform to global demands.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 08, 2015
Energy Players Profit from the Oil Price "Grinch" / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Getting started this year took a bit longer than usual.
When I returned home from the Bahamas, I had to hook up an entirely new system of computers and peripherals. To top it off, everything is in a new version of Windows.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 07, 2015
Top Five Factors Affecting Oil Prices In 2015 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
As we ring in the New Year, let's take stock of where we are at with the oil markets. 2014 proved to be a momentous one for the oil markets, having seen prices cut in half in just six months.
The big question is what oil prices will do in 2015. Oil prices are unsustainably low right now – many high-cost oil producers and oil-producing regions are currently operating in the red. That may work in the short-term, but over the medium and long-term, companies will be forced out of the market, precipitating a price rise. The big question is when they will rise, and by how much.
Tuesday, January 06, 2015
Next Energy Crisis As Early As 2016 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Low oil prices today may be setting the world up for an oil shortage as early as 2016. Today we have just 2% more crude oil supply than demand and the price of gasoline is under $2.00/gallon in Texas. If oil supply falls too far, we could see gasoline prices doubling within 18 months. For a commodity as critical to our standard of living as oil is, it only takes a small shortage to drive up the price.
Tuesday, January 06, 2015
This Oil Thing Is The Real Deal / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Well! WTI below $50 and Brent below $53 when I start writing this. Who knows where they’ll be by the time I’m finished?! The euro down below $1.20, US stocks flirting with -2%, major European ones off -3%, Italy and Greece over -5%. Welcome to the real world, baby! Didn’t think you’d see it again so soon, did you? Welcome to the world where the Kool-Aid recovery does not reign supreme.
Not that you’re not going to hear that anymore, and 24/7 incessantly so, but there’s no recovery with these oil prices, no matter what anybody says. The damage must be gargantuan by now. Everybody’s invested in oil. Sure, lots of shorts and stuff by now, but that’s not going to do much good. Not for pensions funds, or for governments. This thing will not blow up or over softly.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 05, 2015
Oil Price Plunge, When Exactly Are Falling Prices Bad? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Peter_Schiff
The sudden fall in the price of oil provides a unique opportunity to examine the widely held belief that deflation is economic poison. As many governments and central banks have vowed to fight deflation at all costs in 2015, the question could hardly be more significant.
While falling prices may strike the layman as cause for celebration, economists believe that it can kick off a nasty, and often inescapable, negative cycle, which many believe leads inevitably to a prolonged recession, or even a depression. However, these same economists acknowledge that falling energy prices may offer a stimulus, equivalent to an enormous "tax cut," particularly for lower and middle income consumers for whom energy costs represent a major portion of disposable income. They suggest that the money consumers and businesses no longer spend on gasoline and heating oil could be spent on other goods and services thereby creating demand in other areas of the economy. Even Fed Chair Janet Yellen, a staunch advocate of the economic benefits of rising consumer prices, has extolled the benefits of falling oil prices.
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Saturday, January 03, 2015
Did the U.S. and the Saudis Conspire to Push Down Oil Prices? / Politics / Crude Oil
By: Mike_Whitney
Are falling oil prices part of a US-Saudi plan to inflict economic damage on Russia, Iran and Venezuela?
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro seems to think so. In a recent interview that appeared in Reuters, Maduro said he thought the United States and Saudi Arabia wanted to drive down oil prices “to harm Russia.”
Bolivian President Evo Morales agrees with Maduro and told journalists at RT that: “The reduction in oil prices was provoked by the US as an attack on the economies of Venezuela and Russia. In the face of such economic and political attacks, the nations must be united.”
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Saturday, January 03, 2015
2015: Why's the Oil Price Collapsing? Answer: $8+ Trillion Carry Trade / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: DK_Matai
Most in the media are utterly clueless about what's coming in 2015. It is incumbent upon ATCA 5000 to clarify the situation as we did prior to the start of The Great Reset and The Great Unwind during 2007-2008 based on our global intelligence gathering, detailed scenario planning and mathematical modelling of capital allocation and trans-national flows:
Wednesday, December 31, 2014
Crude Oil Large Speculators Play Catch a Falling Knife / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Dan_Norcini
Another week – another CFTC report – more of the same, namely the large speculative category, hedge funds and other reportable traders, continue their love affair with crude oil. This, in spite of the fact that the black goo has lost 50% of its price since June of this year.
I have said now for the last few weeks and will say it once more, I am completely mystified and baffled as to how the supposedly smartest and most informed traders on the planet could have gotten this market so wrong. Not only that, but that they continue to stay wrong!
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 29, 2014
Did Saudis And US Collude In Dropping Crude Oil Prices? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The oil price drop that has dominated the headlines in recent weeks has been framed almost exclusively in terms of oil market economics, with most media outlets blaming Saudi Arabia, through its OPEC Trojan horse, for driving down the price, thus causing serious damage to the world's major oil exporters – most notably Russia.
While the market explanation is partially true, it is simplistic, and fails to address key geopolitical pressure points in the Middle East.
Saturday, December 27, 2014
2015 Crude Oil Prices Won't Change the Emerging U.S. Dominance / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: My recent meetings in Dubai highlighted the profound change that will turn the balance of power in the energy industry on its head.
For years, OPEC was the puppet master, and the United States (and the rest of the world) were the puppets. They pulled the strings, and we danced. OPEC set the price of oil. OPEC controlled the supply.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 24, 2014
In 2015 the U.S. Will Elbow OPEC Oil to the Sidelines / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: My recent meetings in Dubai highlighted the profound change that will turn the balance of power in the energy industry on its head.
For years, OPEC was the puppet master, and the U.S. (and the rest of the world) were the puppets. They pulled the strings, and we danced. OPEC set the price of oil. OPEC controlled the supply.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Make No Mistake, the Crude Oil Price Slump Is Going to Hurt the US Too / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Marin_Katusa
If you only paid attention to the mainstream media, you’d be forgiven for thinking that the US is going to get away from the collapse in oil prices scot free. According to popular belief, America is even going to be a net winner from cheaper oil prices, because they will act like a tax cut for US consumers. Or so we are told.
In reality, though, many of the jobs the US energy boom has created in the last few years are now at risk, and their loss could drag the economy into a recession.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 21, 2014
The Damage Caused By the Oil Bear Will Spread Far and Wide / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Michael E. Lewitt writes: Oil prices continued to fall this week but stock markets shrugged off the disarray this continued to cause in global markets after Janet Yellen whispered soothing words in their ears after the Fed's last meeting of the year on Wednesday. Mrs. Yellen has become a "bull whisperer" – fearful of upsetting the equity market, she cloaks her words in indirection and equivocation in an effort to keep them calm as she prays for an economic lift-off that will take her institution off the hook.
Unfortunately, her patient is likely to be very disappointed, for it would take an economic miracle the likes of which hasn't been seen in this country since the years after the Second World War to deal with the mountain of existing debt and future liabilities that are going to bury us.
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Saturday, December 20, 2014
Oil Drilling Our Way Into Oblivion / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Oh, that sweet black gold won’t leave us alone, will it? West Texas Intermediate went through some speedbumps Friday, but ended over +5%, though still only at $57. Think them buyers know something we don’t? I don’t either. I see people covering lousy bets. And PPT (and that’s not the one we used to spray our crops with).
The damage done must be epic by now, throughout the financial system, but we’re not hearing much about that yet, are we? We will in time, not to worry. Everyone’s invested in oil, and big time too, and they’ve all just become party to a loss of about half of what both oil itself and oil stocks were worth just this summer.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 19, 2014
Why Russia Will Halt the Ruble’s Slide and Keep Pumping Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Marin_Katusa
The harsh reality is that U.S. shale fields have much more to fear from plummeting oil prices than the Russians, since their costs of production are much higher, says Marin Katusa, author of The Colder War: How the Global Energy Trade Slipped from America’s Grasp.
Russia’s ruble may have strengthened sharply Wednesday, but it’s plunge in recent days has encouraged plenty of talk about the country’s catastrophe, with some even proclaiming that the new Russia is about to go the way of the old USSR.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 19, 2014
Oil Prices: A True Black Swan or the Work of Vultures? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Oil prices are struggling to stabilize in the wake of what some are calling a “black swan” event.
It refers to a theory popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a well-known risk analyst and statistician.
A black swan is an outlier, a development that fails to follow any normal pattern.
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Thursday, December 18, 2014
Crude Oil Price: What's Next? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
Today, there is no shortage of opinions about oil.
So why should you bother reading this one?
Because 99% of oil forecasts out there are based on so-called fundamentals. The same "fundamentals" that back in June, when oil cost $107 a barrel, promised even higher prices due to:
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Thursday, December 18, 2014
Crude Oil Price - The Doji-generated Reversal? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
The price of crude oil declined yesterday once again - was the bottom reached yet?
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Tuesday, December 16, 2014
Crude Oil Price Epic Blowout / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Bob_Loukas
The FED’s easy money has encouraged rampant energy speculation and over-investment, resulting in more than $500 billion in new loans and investments in just the past 4 years. And so long as Crude prices stayed comfortably above $90, investments made money and everyone was happy. But once energy prices started falling, the decline quickly became a negative loop-back effect because the very high levels of leverage could not tolerate the move. Whenever asset prices fall in a highly levered market, there is often a sudden lack of liquidity to absorb the speculators’ need to unwind leverage, leading to desperation and fire sales. In the case of energy, the sudden disappearance of “investors” highlights just how speculative the underlying market had become.
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
Stunning Crude Oil Price Crash - Black Gold Loses its Glitter / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Peter_Schiff
The stunning 40% drop in the price of oil over the past few months has scrambled global economic forecasts, changed the geo-political landscape, and has severely pressured many energy sector investments. Economists are scratching their heads to determine if the drop is good or bad for the economy or whether cheap oil will add to or decrease unemployment, or complicate the global effort to "defeat" deflation. While all of these issues merit detailed discussions, the first question to address is if the steep drop is here to stay and whether energy prices will stay low enough, for long enough, to seriously reshuffle the economic deck. Based on a variety of factors, this is not likely to happen. I believe a series of technical, industrial, and monetary factors will combine to push oil back up to, and potentially beyond, the levels that it has seen over the last few years.
Monday, December 15, 2014
Is The Oil Price Collapse A Monumental Black Swan? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: DK_Matai
Although the conditions for an oil price collapse have been there since 2013, yet when it arrived in the second half of 2014, it happened suddenly and then accelerated in momentum like a snowball rolling down the Alps. A truly monumental black swan with many cascading consequences for geo-strategy, financial markets and the global economy. Ten key questions discussed at a recent private lunch ATCA 5000 hosted for select chairmen and chief executives of major financial institutions, family offices and technology players:
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Sunday, December 14, 2014
Crude Oil Price Crashing Towards $40 per Barrel / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Joseph_Russo
From speculation of international currency wars, to related geopolitical tensions, to the economics of actual supply-demand equations, there is no shortage of theories as to the reasons behind the recent tumble in crude, or if such a decline bodes ill or well for the economy of main street.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 12, 2014
Petro Dollar Ponzi Madness / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
The drop in commodity, and especially oil prices, has been spectacular. The price action has generated a wide range of commentary. Some say this is a reflection of the true state of the global economy. Like the Baltic dry goods index or electricity consumption.
Some will say the fall in oil is deflationary - priced in as the inevitable confluence of factors ranging from demographics to lack of real economic growth manifest. Or it is more evidence of failed monetary policy. And paradoxically, another excuse to double down and go the way of Japan in pursuit of a lost decade muddle thru.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 12, 2014
Will Crude Oil Kill The Zombies? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Oil producer Russia hikes rates to 10.5% as the ruble continues to plunge, while fellow producer Norway does the opposite, and cuts its rates, but also sees its currency plummet. As Greek stocks lose another 7.35% after Tuesday’s 13% loss on rumors about what the left leaning Syriza party will or will not do if it wins upcoming elections, and virtually anonymous Dubai drops 7.42%. We all know the story of the chain and its weakest link, and beware, these really still ARE global markets.
Thursday, December 11, 2014
Russia’s Unfazed by Falling Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Marin_Katusa
Oil is not quite as powerful a weapon against modern-day Russia as one might think.
By arguing that the slump in oil prices will finish off Russia just like it did the Soviet Union, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, writing in the Daily Telegraph, is forgetting how far Russia has come since those dark days.
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Thursday, December 11, 2014
Clearing The Decks For The Crude Oil Subprime Rout / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
The Clown Prince of Overpriced Oil Bows Out
Andy Hall, the celebrated speculator on rising oil prices and related asset values is bowing out. Not long ago, he was still loudly telling the boomers that oil prices would inevitably bounce and could soon hit $150 a barrel, partly due to US shale oil "being a dud". Hall railed at anybody, like me, or Hall's pet hate, Citigroup's Edward L. Morse, who dared to argue that $75 for a barrel of oil is a very reasonable price – in fact a lot more than today's price! US natural gas and world coal, for example, provide energy at around $25 to $30 per barrel equivalent. Is oil really worth that much more? If so, why?
Thursday, December 11, 2014
Crude Oil Price Tumbles After OPEC Releases 2015 Forecast / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The demand for oil in 2015 will drop to its lowest level since 2002 because of an oversupply of crude and stagnant economies in China and Europe, according to OPEC's latest forecast. And that's just one of several sour estimates.OPEC's monthly report said demand for the cartel's oil will fall to 28.9 million barrels per day next year, 280,000 barrels lower than its previous forecast and the lowest in 12 years. Add to that a new report from the US government's Energy Information Administration (EIA), which also cut its 2015 forecast for growth in global oil demand by 240,000 barrels per day, down to 880,000 barrels per day.
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Thursday, December 11, 2014
Where Are Crude Oil Bulls? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Although crude oil hit a fresh multi-year low after the market's open, the commodity rebounded in the following hours supported by a weaker greenback. In this way, light crude gained 0.40%, but still remains under the previous lows. What's next?
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Thursday, December 11, 2014
Where the Big Global Oil Players are Putting Their Money Now / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Marina and I are headed back to sunny Florida. It will be a welcome change from the brisk weather in London.
Not that I had much time to take in the scenery…
While my better half sampled the shops in Kensington High Street, I was in high level meetings in a place known as “The City.”
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Wednesday, December 10, 2014
Norway's Falling Crude Oil Output / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
New oil projects are being scrapped in Norway amid falling production and low oil prices.
Long held up as the model for managing oil abundance, Norway has painstakingly sought to prevent the problems that occur with other natural resource-based economies, such as corruption, slow economic growth, currency appreciation, and subsequently, deindustrialization.
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Wednesday, December 10, 2014
Crude Oil and the War Cycle 2015 and Beyond / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Clif_Droke
This year witnessed the bottom of one of several components of the 120-year cycle of inflation and deflation. The cycle to which I'm referring is the 24-year cycle. Of particular relevance is that this cycle answers to the cycle of war.
Since 1894 when the previous 120-year Grand Super Cycle bottomed and a new one began, there have been four military conflagrations at each subsequent bottom of the 24-year cycle. Most of these wars have been major in scope. The first such instance of war occurred in the years leading up to 1918, which saw the first 24-year cycle bottom of the current 120-year cycle. The 24-year cycle that bottomed that year saw the ending to the First World War. Remembering that the final "hard down" phase of the 24-year cycle approximates to almost two-and-a-half years, this represented roughly the second half of that major war, a war that involved the United States.
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Tuesday, December 09, 2014
Crude Oil Price Sinking Or Rebounding / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil lost 1.65% as a stronger U.S. dollar and news that Saudi Arabia lowered the price of oil for buyers in the U.S. and Asia continued to weight. As a result, light crude moved lower for the fourth time in a row and closed the week at its lowest level since mid-Jul 2009.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 06, 2014
Opecology Or The Art Of Saying Nothing / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
The Threat of $57 Oil
The recent head of the World Petroleum Council, Renato Bertani speaking from Houston in interview with Russia Today TV, December 1st, was set an increasingly ridiculous set of questions by the energetic if dumb interviewer lady in the Moscow bureau. She asked him if Peak Oil was true and if ISIS or ISIL was pricing its stolen oil (she said $30 a barrel) at the “right price”? Would oil get really cheap before it disappeared (not cheap after it disappeared)? Is fracking sustainable and are US producers lying when they say $57 a barrel is a price they can live with? Will hydrogen-fueled cars wipe out world oil demand? Would global warming terrify us so much we woke up one day and totally renounced oil? How will OPEC stabilize and control the market and set the right oil price for everybody (she didn't suggest we ask Goldman Sachs how they do it). Time for a sucker's rally!
Saturday, December 06, 2014
Crude Oil Price Slump: 7% Hit for Global Hotel Stock Prices and 25% Hit for Dubai Hotel Revenues Is Predicted / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
There is an increasing adjustment to the idea that the “totally unexpected” slump in oil prices to below $70 may prevail for some time. The model that predicted since 2011 Brent would, at some point, bottom at $67 which is just 3% below where it reached yesterday (not bad for a prediction made three years ago)... says the slump will last four years.
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Saturday, December 06, 2014
Global Crude Oil Consumption - What Countries Have Increased or Decreased Usage Since 2009? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Mike_Shedlock
Reader David Epperson sent in some interesting charts on global oil usage that he produced from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. The data is through the end of 2013.
David writes...
Read full article... Read full article...Hello Mish,
I was curious how much oil consumption had declined over the last few years, so I went to the EIA web site, downloaded the consumption data and produced the following charts.
Friday, December 05, 2014
Why OPEC Will Tolerate Cheap Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Browne
Despite falling oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) voted on November 27th not to cut production in order to boost prices. The key to this decision appears to have been the attitude of Saudi Arabia, which has long been the first among equals in the coalition. Not surprisingly, the decision led to further oil price declines, and led many observers to conclude that OPEC has largely lost the ability to upwardly influence the price of petroleum. But this determination ignores the wider geopolitical considerations that may be convincing Saudi Arabia to be perfectly content, for now, with lower prices.
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Thursday, December 04, 2014
OPEC is Playing a Losing Hand (Get Ready to Win Some Heavy Money) / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Every 10 or 20 years a series of watershed events come together that change the face of the international energy picture.
The Saudi-led oil war is one of these pivotal situations.
And while others are fretting about what the OPEC production move means, I’m actually meeting with the guys who made the decision.
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Thursday, December 04, 2014
The Myth of Lower Oil Prices Will Hit Consumers / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Michael E. Lewitt writes: Media elites and Wall Street cheerleaders are greeting lower oil prices with open arms.
Investors should beware these self-appointed experts bearing gifts.
Oil prices are falling for reasons that should be surprising to nobody: supply has been rising and demand has been falling. If prolonged, which it is likely to be, the drop in oil prices is going to be destabilizing geopolitically and damaging economically.
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Thursday, December 04, 2014
Could Falling Crude Oil Prices Spark a Financial Crisis? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The oil and gas boom in the United States was made possible by the extensive credit afforded to drillers. Not only has financing come from company shareholders and traditional banks, but hundreds of billions of dollars have also come from junk-bond investors looking for high returns.
Junk-bond debt in energy has reached $210 billion, which is about 16 percent of the $1.3 trillion junk-bond market. That is a dramatic rise from just 4 percent that energy debt represented 10 years ago.
Tuesday, December 02, 2014
Commodities Year End Low / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Ed_Carlson
After waiting all year for the expected year-end low in commodities, SPSGCI should finally be there (although it probably doesn’t feel that way for oil bulls). Last month’s low at 510 shows up as a possible low in my price forecasting model just as a monthly cycle points to a low in November (or December). The next monthly cycle high is not due until October 2015.
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Tuesday, December 02, 2014
The Inside Story on OPEC’s Oil Price War / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: My meetings here in Dubai are at the Burj Al Arab, the fabled “seven-star hotel” built like a huge ship’s sail on its own man-made island.
At center stage are some of the region’s top oil policy makers, including a rather impressive forty-one year old, His Excellency Suhali Mohamed Faraj Al-Mazrouei.
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Monday, December 01, 2014
If Crude Oil Price Can Drop 40%, What’s Gold Going To Do? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Amusing, that Swiss vote today. Or rather, the three votes. I can’t oversee why the first one, the hike in taxes for foreigners, was rejected. It would seem reasonable that everyone living in a country pays a similar amounts in taxes, but perhaps there’s another angle to the topic that I haven’t read about.
The second vote, the one on immigration limits, initiated by an eco group, looks easier to understand. In a country smack in the middle of continental Europe, which has 3 official languages and where 25% of the population are foreigners, forcing the government to limit immigration by 80% from one day to the next, from 80,000 to 16,000 people, seems to be quite simply too steep a demand.
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Sunday, November 30, 2014
Oil Charts - Black Friday in The Energy Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Rambus_Chartology
Tonight I would like to update a few oil charts I posted several weeks ago when oil was breaking out of that multi year five point triangle reversal pattern.
Editor's Note: See the links below to follow the evolution of this move in the Friday Night Energy Series.
Before we look at the bigger picture I want to show you a short term daily chart that had an interesting day. There are several things I like to look at when I see a stock that looks like it's breaking out. First, it's nice to see an increase in volume but sometimes it happens a day or to later. Secondly, it's always nice to see a gap where you were expecting a breakout. That gives you a little more confidence when your anticipating a breakout and it happens right where it should. The third thing I like to look for is a long bar that covers a lot of ground. It tells us that, in oils case, there were no more bulls left to defend the support zone, so they retreat en mass looking for the next support zone to try and defend. In a bear market all the bulls can do is put up some minor support as the big trend is down and they'll be overrun again in due time by the bears. You can clearly see this on the short term daily chart for oil below.
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Saturday, November 29, 2014
Crude Oil Price Crash - What to Expect Next / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Looking back to 2007 (seven years ago) we have seen the price of crude oil perform incredible price swings. No matter the time frame in which we observe price when an extreme price spike takes place due to news/event, statistics show that half if not all the event driven price spike will eventually be negated in the future.
Saturday, November 29, 2014
OPEC Presents QE4 and Deflation / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Thinking plummeting oil prices are good for the economy is a mistake. They instead, as I said only yesterday in The Price Of Oil Exposes The True State Of The Economy, point out how bad the global economy is doing. QE has been able to inflate stock prices way beyond anything remotely looking fundamental, but energy prices have now deflated instead of stocks. Something had to give at some point. Turns out, central banks weren’t able to inflate oil prices on top of everything else. Stocks and bonds are much easier to artificially inflate than commodities are.
Saturday, November 29, 2014
Crude Oil Price's Ups and Downs / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
Today’s Outside the Box is special, because I’m about to give you a preview of things to come at Mauldin Economics. For months now I have been saying to my partners that we need to develop a service for the professionals who read me – the financial advisors, portfolio managers, family offices… you know who you are. And I’m excited to tell you that we are very close to making this service a reality. It will be called Mauldin Pro, and it will feature global macro and geopolitical research and analysis, portfolio recommendations, monthly interviews with some of the best talent in the business, and quarterly seminars to help you improve your game.
Thursday, November 27, 2014
Crude Oil Asset Bubble Trouble / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
Nothing Ikonic about the Gold / Oil Ratio
Assuming for discussion that a 15-to-1 ratio between the price of I Troy ounce of gold and 1 barrel of oil is a long-term average or “ikonic ratio”, ( http://www.zealllc.com/2005/gorex2.htm) this would apply for $2 oil and $30 gold as much as $120 oil and $1800 gold. But the asset bubbles built around oil and gold would be rather different, each time. Also, coming down and off highs for the gold price, or for the oil price, there would be major bloodshed among the related overpriced and now-irrational asset values, but in the case of oil assets this will include national budgets, national FX values and even global economic growth. Deflating an oil asset bubble has a lot more ramifying impacts than coming down from a high for gold.
Wednesday, November 26, 2014
A Short Tale About the Grand Manipulation of Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Happy Thanksgiving from Dubai.
I’ll have much more to tell you about my meetings in Paris, Frankfurt, and here on the Persian Gulf coast next week.
But today I’d like to fill you in on an interesting wrinkle I’ve uncovered dealing with the ongoing saga of why oil prices are so low.
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Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Where Is the Price of Crude Oil Price Going? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Long positions with a stop-loss at $72.78 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil gained 0.47% as Thursday's solid U.S. data and talks that OPEC may consider trimming production continued to support the commodity. As a result, light crude left the recent consolidation and closed the day above $76. Will we see a rally to $80 in the coming days?
On Friday, crude oil climbed to an intraday high of $77.83 as the combination of solid U.S. data continued to support the commodity. How did this increase affected the very short-term picture of crude oil? (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Monday, November 24, 2014
The 2014 Crude Oil Price Crash Explained / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
This is an article by our good friend Euan Mearns at the University of Aberdeen. It was originally published here .
- In February 2009 Phil Hart published on The Oil Drum a simple supply demand model that explained then the action in the oil price. In this post I update Phil’s model to July 2014 using monthly oil supply (crude+condensate) and price data from the Energy Information Agency (EIA).
- This model explains how a drop in demand for oil of only 1 million barrels per day can account for the fall in price from $110 to below $80 per barrel.
- The future price will be determined by demand, production capacity and OPEC production constraint. A further fall in demand of the order 1 Mbpd may see the price fall below $60. Conversely, at current demand, an OPEC production cut of the order 1 Mbpd may send the oil price back up towards $100. It seems that volatility has returned to the oil market.
Sunday, November 23, 2014
Why Crude Oil $80 Is the New Normal, Reasons Saudi Arabia Will Not “Swing” / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
Now the dust from the Shock & Awe of the 30% drop in oil prices has started to settle, two things are clear: (a) Saudi Arabia did not engineer anything (b) they don’t have a Machiavellian plan to stick one up the wildcatters in North Dakota, or the Russians...the Iranians...the Venezuelans, or even the genius from the Daily Telegraph who was bemoaning the fact that if oil prices go down it will be hard to import inflation into U.K.
Here are five good reasons why they are going to pass on the opportunity to slash their oil production by 30% so that other OPEC members can cheat and make a windfall, like they all did in 1987/8.
Sunday, November 23, 2014
Who’s Ready For $30 Crude Oil Price? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
How low can and will oil prices go, and what will the effects of those prices be? I bet you’ll have a hard time finding even just two people who have the same opinion on that. Not that it’s merely a matter of opinion, mind you, there are a great number of real life factors that come into play. It’s not an easy game.
OPEC gets together next week, and it’s a cartel divided. Many if not most of its members are suffering some kind of losses at present prices, and the obvious choice seems to be to cut output in order to raise prices again. But that’s not easy either, because at lower prices they need more output, not less, to minimize the damage. Besides, is non-OPEC producers don’t cut their output, OPWC cuts may do very little to lift prices.
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Thursday, November 20, 2014
Iran Nuclear Negotiations, OPEC Meeting Loom For Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
As November draws to a close, there are two major events that could profoundly change the oil markets.
With the clock ticking, the 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (P5 plus 1) are negotiating down to the wire with Iran over its nuclear program. The two sides have made substantial progress, but some difficult issues remain unresolved ahead of the November 24 deadline.
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Wednesday, November 19, 2014
Forget About Crude Oil Price Testing 2009 Low / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Austin_Galt
Oil has hit a slick recently with price sliding over 30% in the last five months. There are now calls for price to potentially test the 2009 lows. While I think this is a bit extreme, let’s investigate the charts to see what the evidence there suggests.
Monday, November 17, 2014
Are Crude Oil's Bears Over? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Long positions with a stop-loss at $72.78 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Although crude oil hit a fresh four-year low on Friday, the commodity rebounded sharply as upbeat U.S. data and speculations that OPEC countries may consider cutting output supported the price. As a result, light crude closed the day above $75 and invalidated the breakdown below important support lines. Is it enough to trigger a trend reversal?
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Sunday, November 16, 2014
Whatever Happened To $100 Crude Oil Price? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
The Paradigm Shift
Business news provider Bloomberg, November 14, cited a Tass interview in which Vladimir Putin says that Russia is prepared for "catastrophic falls" of world oil prices and export revenues – on a day when Nymex oil market players and manipultors engineered a classic "sucker's rally" with a one-day 2.5% jump in Brent and WTI prices! Putin is unlikely to be fooled by that rally and Russia, like China has been making very large gold purchases as an insurance policy on likely or probable major currency upheavals, in Russia's case including intensified attacks in the present "war on the ruble" to punish its support for rebels in eastern Ukraine.
Sunday, November 16, 2014
IEA Says Oil Supplies May Not Keep Up With Demand / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Despite what appears to be a saturated oil market in 2014, oil producers around the world will struggle to meet rising demand over the next few decades.
In its latest annual World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the current period of oil abundance may be fleeting, and in fact, without heroic levels of production increases, oil markets will grow dangerously tight in the coming years.
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Saturday, November 15, 2014
Still Lower Prices Ahead For Crude Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Sy_Harding
Crude oil prices, at a four-year low, have plunged 30% in the past six months, and it looks like they are destined to fall further.
In its monthly report, released Friday, the International Energy Agency said, “Our forecasts indicate that barring any new supply disruptions, downward price pressure could build further through the first half of 2015.”
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Thursday, November 13, 2014
Crude Oil Price Sinking Or Rebounding / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Long positions with a buy limit order at $75.82 and a stop-loss at $73.47 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Although crude oil moved lower after the market's open, the commodity erased losses later in the day, hitting an intraday high of $78.04 as concerns over the situation in Libya supported the price. In this way, light crude gained 0.45% and bounced off the recent lows. Will we see a post double-bottom rally in the coming days?
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Wednesday, November 12, 2014
A Billionaire Insider Just Made a Bold Bet on Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: There was a very dramatic development in the oil market last week. It involved a well-known insider and a bullish bet on crude.
Harold Hamm, the CEO of Continental Resources Inc. (NYSE:CLR), announced that his company – a major producer in the Bakken and other U.S. unconventional oil basins – had unwound its hedge positions.
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Saturday, November 08, 2014
What Crude Oil's Ratios Are Saying About Future Price Moves? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Without a doubt, Oct was the worst month for oil bulls since May 2012. In the previous month, the commodity lost over 11% as the combination of a stronger greenback, rising supplies and weaker demand weighted on the price. Additionally, the first days of the new month have been very negative for oil investors. After the breakdown below the psychologically important barrier of $80, oil bears pushed the price lower and light crude hit a four-year low of $75.84, breaking under long-term support lines. In this way, the commodity posted its sixth weekly loss in a row. Will light crude drop any further in the nearest future? Is it possible that crude oil's ratios will give us some interesting clues?
Friday, November 07, 2014
$80 Crude Oil Price is the New Normal Minimum / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
Saudi Arabia has nothing to do with falling prices at the pump, argues Bob Moriarty. He sees falling demand as the culprit, driven by economic slowdown in China, Europe and the U.S. In this interview with The Energy Report, Moriarty explains why increased consumer spending won't solve our problems, and discusses why he's still a fan of North American energy stocks—even though he hates shale oil.
Friday, November 07, 2014
Why the Saudis are Fighting a Losing Battle Over Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: For the second time in a month, Saudi Arabia has grabbed the headlines in the oil markets. The kingdom is cutting prices again in its global oil feud.
In its latest version, Saudi Aramco (the national oil company) has restored an earlier price cut to Asia, but reduced its price to U.S customers.
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Tuesday, November 04, 2014
Why We Need Overpriced Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
High on High Priced Oil
Royal Dutch Shell's new chairman Chad Hallyday says that falling oil prices are the top of his agenda and like other “historic majors” such as ConocoPhillips and ENI, Shell gets a painful bottom line hit from lower prices. Reported by the 'Financial Times', October 31, Hallyday says that each $10 fall in the barrel price means $3 billion less earnings a year and a prolonged period of Brent prices around $85 a barrel would translate to $8 bn-a-year of reduced profits for Shell. Nevertheless Hallyday is not only a former BofA banking chief, but also co-chaired the UN's high level group on sustainable energy, which in 2011 pledged a doubling of renewable energy in world energy by 2030. The recent doomster grandstanding by UN Secretary General Ban ki-Moon to “prevent planetary disaster from global warming” calls for the total elimination of all fossil fuels “before the end of the century”.
Tuesday, November 04, 2014
Lower Crude Oil Prices Carry Geopolitical Consequences / Politics / Crude Oil
By: STRATFOR
Since mid-June, the price of Brent crude oil has fallen by nearly 25 percent -- going from a high of $115 to about $87 a barrel -- and structural factors are causing concern among global oil producers that oil prices will remain near current levels through at least the end of 2015. This concern has caused several investment banks to slash their oil price outlooks for the immediate future. Stratfor believes that oil supplies will stay high as energy production in North America increases and OPEC countries remain hesitant or unable to cut production significantly. Moreover, in the short term, the Chinese economic slowdown and stagnant European economy will limit the potential for growth in oil demand. These factors could make it harder for global oil prices to rebound to their previous levels.
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Total War over the Petrodollar / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Marin_Katusa
The conspiracy theories surrounding the death of Total SA’s chief executive, Christophe de Margerie, started the second the news broke of his death. Under mysterious circumstances in Moscow, his private jet collided with a snowplow just after midnight. De Margerie was the CEO of Total, France’s largest oil company.
He’d just attended a private meeting with Russian Prime Minister Medvedev, at a time when the West’s relationship with Russia is fraught, to say the least.
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Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Crude Oil Price Sinking Or Rebounding / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions.
On Friday, crude oil lost 0.68% as concerns over a global oversupply continued to weigh. Additionally, soft U.S. housing data pushed the commodity below $82 per barrel. Will we see another test of the strength of the psychologically important level of $80?
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Friday, October 24, 2014
Saudi Move to Cut Oil Prices Is Now Russia's Biggest Economic Threat / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
As I discussed recently (Why the Saudis Are Cutting Oil Prices), Saudi Arabia has made headlines by cutting oil prices, not production.
It seems the Saudis are more interested in grabbing market share than in attending to the present state of the market.
That move seems calculated to undercut the effect the United States has on global oil markets, even though that effect is indirect.
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Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Crude Oil Price Hitting Bottom / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Bob Loukas writes: In the past, we’ve discussed at length the structural problems facing Crude. So the pressure the energy markets are under, both from the demand and supply sides, should come as no surprise. This double whammy to the Crude market is not likely to be resolved overnight; demand-supply issues require time to work through a market.
Through hydraulic fracking and a massive influx of investment capital, the US has again become a major oil producer. But it’s the speed with which new supply from the US has come on line that has taken the market by surprise and rocked prices.
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Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Low Crude Oil Prices Hurting U.S. Shale Operations / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Slumping oil prices are putting pressure on U.S. drillers.The number of active rigs drilling for oil and gas fell by their most in two months, according to the latest data from oil services firm Baker Hughes. There were 19 oil rigs that were removed from operation as of Oct. 17, compared to the prior week. There are now 1,590 active oil rigs, the lowest level in six weeks.
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Saturday, October 18, 2014
Crude Oil Price Blues (Read: Dangers) for Some / Currencies / Crude Oil
By: Steve_H_Hanke
As the price of crude oil continues its downward tumble towards $80 per barrel, I am reminded of a similar scenario from near the end of the Cold War in the 1980s. When Saudi Arabia announced in 1985 that protecting oil prices was no longer its main priority, oil production surged and prices fell off a cliff, briefly plunging below $10 per barrel, as I had correctly predicted.
Lower prices delivered a fatal blow to the Soviet economy, which ended up seeing $20 billion per year in oil revenues evaporate. The resulting fiscal shortfalls proved to be a dagger in the heart of the U.S.S.R.
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Saturday, October 18, 2014
Why OPEC Has Declared an Oil War on Russia / Politics / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: As I discussed recently (A Calculated Saudi Move Aimed at America), Saudi Arabia has grabbed the headlines by cutting oil prices, not production.
It seems the Saudis are more interested in grabbing market share than in attending to the present state of the market.
That move seems calculated to undercut the effect the U.S. has on global oil markets, even though that effect is indirect.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 17, 2014
When... Not if... Crude Oil Price Drops Below $70 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
Since mid 2010 the oil industry was getting used to Brent averaging around $110. From then to mid 2014 share prices of Halliburton (HAL) Schlumberger (SLB), Hercules (HERO), Transocean (RIG) etc, went up by average 250%. By way of a benchmark for the collective enthusiasm in the idea of the irreversibility of Peak Oil, MODU (jack-up drilling rigs) utilization and day rates climbed into the champagne-all-round arena. According to IHS, a consultancy, there are 118 new ones being built so as to complement the current worldwide fleet of 550. About 40% of those are in China thanks in part to the 5% you used to be able to put down grace of the beneficence of the Bank of Chairman Mao...which incidentally has the smell of the dry bulk carrier enthusiasm seven years ago, also largely financed by the Bank of Chairman Mao.
Thursday, October 16, 2014
Crude Oil Prices Continue to Define Geopolitics / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: STRATFOR
Editor's Note: Oil prices dropped steeply Oct. 14, with crude oil futures falling 4.6 percent to $81.84 per barrel -- the biggest decrease in more than two years. Brent crude dropped by more than $4 a barrel at one stage in the day, dipping below $85 for the first time since 2010. While these are relatively substantial drops, they are just one part of a continuing trend Stratfor has been tracking over the past few months. Factors behind the slump include weak demand, a surfeit of supply and the fact that many large Middle Eastern producers are reluctant to reduce their output.
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
King Coal Strikes Back at the Obama Administration / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: The latest salvo in the “Coal Wars” comes from the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity (ACCCE), and it’s aimed squarely at the Obama Administration.
Of course, the ACCCE isn’t exactly an impartial observer. In fact, you might say it has one huge dog in this fight.
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Tuesday, October 14, 2014
How To Blow Up OPEC In 3 Easy Steps / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
It’s easily been longer than I care to remember that I first wrote it was only a matter of time before individual OPEC members would throw out the cartel’s agreements on prices and production, and just produce at full force and capacity, and then some. We may have seen that time arrive.
The underlying reason I first talked about it was two-fold. First: the economic crisis, which could lead to one thing only: less global demand. And second: the fast increasing wealth and population numbers in oil-producing nations which, as initially defined by Jeffrey Brown and Sam Foucher in the Export Land Model, has proven to be a much bigger factor in OPEC economies than people realized.
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Saturday, October 11, 2014
Why Overpriced Crude Oil Failed / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
Forget the Secret Deals
US-Saudi petrodollar recycling or the "Secret Deal" between the USA and Saudi Arabia dating from the early 1970s and heavily associated with Richard Nixon, Henry Kissinger, the US Treasury Dept and US Federal Reserve was anything but a secret deal, and public domain information on this system is easily available. Ultra basically, petrodollar recycling worked best with high oil prices. The long slump of oil prices through 1986-2002, was basically engineered, at its beginnings, by Saudi Arabia with full US support to deny revenues to Khomenei's Iran in its 1980-88 war against Saddam Hussein's Iraq, seen by the Sunni-dominated Gulf States as holding back the Islamic revolutionary Shia of Iran. Saudi Arabia certainly did not profit from low oil prices and after the period of 1974-86, it consistently reduced its deposits of "windfall gain" petrodollars in the US Fed Reserve system.
Friday, October 10, 2014
Crude Oil Price War - A Calculated Saudi Move Aimed At America / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: In 280-279 B.C., the Epirian King Pyrrhus defeated the Romans in two consecutive battles. But he suffered such a large number of casualties that his army could no longer carry on the fight.
Ever since then, the term “Pyrrhic victory” has become synonymous with winning at too high a cost.
These days some are beginning to wonder if the Saudis are marching down the same road.
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Friday, October 03, 2014
The Best Way to Play Crude Oil Right Now / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: As I’ve been noting for some time now, making money in the energy sector is no longer pegged to higher crude oil prices.
In today’s environment, picking winning oil stocks is more about where a company drills, how it manages its assets and operations, as well as the broader flow of supply and demand.
In this case, it’s all about selecting the right target – companies that are built to weather the inevitable dips in the price of crude.
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Friday, September 26, 2014
Why the Pundits are Wrong About Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Several pundits attributed yesterday’s spike in oil prices to the recognition that the fight against ISIS in Iraq-Syria will be a long one.
As usual, the 30-second TV wonders missed the boat.
Of course, the ongoing chaos in the Middle East is certainly a factor. To the extent that oil traders begin to calculate its impact into their risk models, there will be an effect.
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Wednesday, September 24, 2014
All Eyes on Kenya: The Next Big Oil Exporter / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Not even the specter of a spillover of Islamic extremism from Somalia can dampen the atmosphere in Kenya, where commercial oil production is expected to begin in 2016 and discovery after discovery has made this the hottest and fastest-paced hydrocarbon scene on the continent.
When it comes to new oil and gas frontiers, today it’s all about Africa. And more specifically, it’s all about the eastern coast, with Kenya the clear darling--not just because it’s outpacing neighboring Uganda by leaps and bounds, but also because despite some political instability hiccups and the threat of militant al-Shabaab, it’s still one of the safest venues in the region.
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Wednesday, September 24, 2014
How Falling Oil Prices Could Trigger an "Unpredictable and Dangerous Mess" / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: The dive in crude oil prices continued yesterday as yet another selloff targeted the energy sector for a particularly big hit.
Of course, this too shall pass.
The crude oil markets are oversold and a rebalancing will bring prices back up a bit over the near term.
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Sunday, September 14, 2014
Two Strikes Against Light Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Donald_W_Dony
Following the August 26, 2014 Market Minute titled "WTIC prices break down", Light crude oil prices has fallen 5.9% since late August.
Abundant supply from the U.S. and the Middle East plus a rising U.S. dollar has sent oil prices down to the first support level at $92.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 11, 2014
Gold, Crude Oil and U.S Dollar Link Intensifies / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco published a report, which indicated that central bank is growing closer to raise interest rates. As a result, the US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, climbed to a 14-month high. Since then, ongoing expectations that U.S. interest rates will be rise sooner rather than later have been supportive for the U.S. dollar, making crude oil and gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Russia And Iran Put Oil-For-Goods Deals Into Motion / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: GoldCore
Russia-Iran Oil-for-Goods Contracts
Representatives of the Russian and Iranian governments met in Tehran yesterday for the 11th meeting of the Iran-Russian Trade Council, where details of a ground breaking oil-for-goods swap between the two heavily sanctioned countries were revealed.
With both countries now sanctioned by the West, Russia and Iran have been in extensive negotiations on how to facilitate Iranian oil exports without breaching the UN Security Council nuclear deal that was agreed between Iran, Germany and the five UN Council permanent last January.
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Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Crude Oil Price Downtrend Continues / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Gregor_Horvat
Crude Oil fell to a new low on Monday so we see prices now already in fifth wave and labeled wave (iv) as a flat correction. As such price may go even lower by the end of the week, to 90.00 area where we will be looking for some evidences of a low as this psychological level may turn into a technical support.
this bearish move was already anticipated on our past updates
Thursday, September 04, 2014
Overpriced Oil – The Fundamental Facts / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
Andy Hall Takes a Bet
Sometimes dubbed the Billionaire Better who always gets things right, Andy Hall has come out swinging. Bloomberg, September 3, reports Hall as saying US shale oil (and even shale gas) “are a dud” and will play down and out much faster than most people think. Hall says there is no way that either US or world oil prices can erode down to around $75 a barrel. He says barrel prices will be closer to $150 within 5 years, by at latest 2019. Hall is buying long-dated oil futures contracts to as far out as 2019 on that basis
Thursday, September 04, 2014
Stronger U.S. Dollar Implications for Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Tuesday, crude oil lost 2.70% as the combination of disappointing Chinese data and stronger U.S. dollar weighed on the price. Because of these circumstances, the commodity bounced down the medium-term resistance zone and approached the recent lows. Will they withstand the selling pressure?
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Tuesday, September 02, 2014
Why Brent Crude Oil Prices Won’t Fall Below $100 a Barrel / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Chad Shoop writes: All the talk about oil these days would lead you to suspect that we are overflowing in abundance, with enough of the black gold lying around the U.S. to significantly reduce our dependence on Middle Eastern and European oil. This happy talk has even sparked discussion of oil independence for Americans — but this couldn’t be farther from the truth. Given the rising cost of producing oil, oil prices won’t fall below $100 a barrel — at least not for any significant length of time.
Friday, August 22, 2014
How the “Uncertainty Factor” Drives Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Despite a world of geopolitical tension, oil prices have remained steady.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has been holding in the mid $90′s, while Brent continues to trade in the low $100 range.
This trading dynamic tells us two things…
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Monday, August 18, 2014
Crude Oil Price Decline – To What Price? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
Triple Digit Prices are Not Forever
In what is only superficially amazing at a time when Islamic insurgency, including Boko Haram in Nigeria and ISIS in Iraq may be threatening the state, civil society and the oil sector in major exporter countries, oil prices are declining quite rapidly. The “magic three digit” price level for oil - $100 a barrel come rain or shine – has been seriously eroded for US WTI and may soon also be attacked for Brent. The major reason for this decline is sharper than expected and forecast decline in leading economic indicators for many large importer countries, including Japan and the EU28. Monthly oil import demand outturns for China and India are variable, but have suffered major contractions relative to previaling rates before 2010.
Thursday, August 14, 2014
The Greatest Investment Theme of This Decade / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: DailyWealth
Matt Badiali writes: It's not too late to grab a stake in the U.S. oil boom...
Yesterday, I shared my experience at the U.S. EIA 2014 Energy Conference last month in Washington D.C. In short, some of the smartest people in the industry, like Daniel Yergin, are projecting U.S. oil production could nearly double from today's levels within the next 20 years.
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Thursday, August 14, 2014
Crude Oil Up and Down. Who Will Take Control? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Tuesday, crude oil lost 0.68% as the bearish report from the International Energy Agency and waning concerns over Iraq supply disruptions weighed on the price. As a result, light crude re-tested the strength of the support zone and approached the recent lows. Will we see a breakthrough in the next few days?
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Wednesday, August 13, 2014
Oil Market QE Premium Is Coming out of Price / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
The Fed Giveth & Taketh with Policy
The Fed may pat themselves on the back for creating the ‘wealth effect’ in stocks, and hope like heck that some of this wealth trickled down and through the rest of the economy, but it is quite evident what the Fed giveth on one hand they taketh away on the other hand in terms of higher oil and commodities prices like gasoline prices.
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Wednesday, August 06, 2014
These Events Could Unhinge Two Global Hotspots And Send Crude Oil Price Higher / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Kent Moors writes: Over the last 36 hours, two events have occurred that may indicate the situation in two global hotspots is getting worse.
Both have the potential to have a significant impact on energy prices in the future.
First, the Islamic State (IS), the terrorist group formerly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), attacked the Mosul Dam.
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Tuesday, August 05, 2014
Crude Oil Is the New Gold Standard / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Today I want to tell you a story about energy - especially crude oil.
It involves my run in with the steak bandit...
Just stay with me here...
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Tuesday, August 05, 2014
The Bigger Oil Story Behind the Headlines / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Michael Levi writes: While we fixate on sexy headlines about Chinese military threats in the South China Sea, for instance, or Washington 'lifting the ban' on crude oil exports, we miss the bigger stories -- and we miss the reality. China's relentless resource quest has the greatest impact on trading prices, which may not make for headline news, but is a very important reality, while the stories about the US lifting the crude oil ban were just wrong.
Tuesday, August 05, 2014
Apocalypse Now For Crude Oil Prices – When Isis Takes Baghdad / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
Dangerously Converging Contexts
As of now we can at least theoretically scenarize a world oil shock at least equal to the so-called 'Arab oil embargo' of 1973-74. The chronology shows that Arab oil exporters joined by the Shah's Iran, from October 1973 cut their total supply by 5% a month to obtain their political-economic demand for much higher prices “for as long as needed”. By January-February 1974 they had started delaying or freezing the monthly 5% cuts in supply. By March when Israel withdrew the last of it soldiers from the Egyptian side of the Suez Canal the embargo started winding down.
Friday, August 01, 2014
Oil Price Major Shift Afoot / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Oil prices are dropping as Exxon announces a -5.7% plunge in output. And as Shell, as I said yesterday, can think of nothing better to do with its remaining funds than to spend it on share buybacks and dividends. Perhaps shareholders should take the money and run. Because what sort of future can they expect for a company that acts like that?
Western oil companies have tens of billions invested in Russian projects they may or may not have access to anymore now the sanctions are coming into effect. The scourge of insecurity. Never good for industry, never good for markets. Prices will rise again, and a lot, just ask Putin, but that doesn’t take away the insecurity over Big Oil’s chances of – even medium term – survival.
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Friday, August 01, 2014
July 31 An Amusing Day For Overpriced Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
Suddenly There Is Ample Supply
Newswires and energy sites on the Internet desperately sought rational explanations of why oil could not only flirt with the “100 dollar benchmark” but (OMG!) fall well below it in just a few days of so-called “hectic trading”. We can now await the pro domo explanation from Goldman Sachs telling us this is only a “temporary downward blip”. Keep calm and carry on. The natural price is well above $100 a barrel.
Tuesday, July 29, 2014
Alaskans need to stand up for free market, reject flawed oil tax 'reform' / Politics / Crude Oil
By: Stephen_Merrill
By listening to this summer’s political commercials, Alaskans could rejoice that a job-friendly atmosphere has been restored to the Alaska oil slope due to the end of the ACES pricing structure now replaced by the pre-ACES lower tax rates. So, Vote No on Ballot Measure 1 to create Alaska jobs!
Monday, July 28, 2014
Has Crude Oil Price Recovery Ended? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Gregor_Horvat
Crude Oil rallied away from 98.64 which has been expected because of a completed five wave decline, but it seems that recovery has ended now, close to 61.8% retracement level after three waves up. Notice that crude oil also moved slightly beneath wave (b) swing which suggests a completed rally. Therefore, traders need to be aware of a bearish impulse and continuation back to 98.65.
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Saturday, July 26, 2014
Two Buy Signals in Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Investment_U
Christopher Rowe writes: To help us analyze this chart of light, sweet crude oil, let’s use two momentum indicators:
- The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator
- The RSI (Relative Strength Index – not to be confused with “relative strength”).
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
Crude Oil Price Bearish Continuation / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Gregor_Horvat
Crude Oil is rallying away from 98.64 which has been expected because of a completed five wave decline, but now recovery can already be counted in three legs that reached levels around 61.8% Fibonacci level, which means that recovery can be at the end. In fact, prices turned nicely down yesterday, slightly beneath the corrective channel that is pointing to lower prices. Ideally we will see a bearish continuation back to 98.60 in days ahead.
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Thursday, July 17, 2014
Oil Path Signals Wrong Way For World Energy / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
Energy Worlds Apart
Recent publication of this year's BP Statistical Review of World Energy illustrates several mega trends in world oil and for energy in general. The Review provides time-series charts where the key change decade of 2003-2013 is covered. These underline how the primacy of oil is threatened. To be sure, wrong way data and false flag trends exist – for example and in particular that China and the US, the world's two biggest economies and two biggest oil importers, now import about a half of the oil they each consume and use.
Sunday, July 13, 2014
Reality Blows Crude Oil Price Seriously Off Course / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
Friday the 13th For Oil Came On Friday 11th July
In classic fashion market operators and manipulators gave a false signal to hopeful speculators, by nudging up oil prices on the Nymex, ICE and other oil markets, on Thursday 10th July. Then the market riggers crushed them, Friday 11th, with a 2.2% one-day crash of prices. To be sure we have to wait for Monday 15th trades to see if the new canonical oil price of $100-per-barrel can be set back in place like Humpty Dumpty, and will hold.
Friday, July 11, 2014
Black Gold: Oil Option Trade Setup – Will Oil Bounce? Who Cares! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Oil futures were on the tip of every political and financial pundits’ tongues less than a month ago as geopolitical tensions in Iraq heated up. Fast forward to today, and tensions in the Middle East have intensified further. However, since June 25th oil prices have been falling fast.
Friday, July 11, 2014
Crude Oil Price Time for Recovery? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Thursday, crude oil gained 0.94% as profit taking and upbeat U.S. jobless claims data supported the price. As a result, the commodity bounced off a very important support zone and came back above $102 per barrel. Does it mean that the bottom of the recent correction is in?
Although crude oil hit a 2-month low of $101.55, declining to slightly below the June low, the commodity reversed and rebounded as traders who had bet on falling prices made purchases yesterday to close those positions.
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Wednesday, July 09, 2014
5 Countries Most Plagued by Crude Oil Theft / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Nigeria
As much as 400,000 barrels of oil a day are stolen in Nigeria. This equates to losses of $1.7 billion a month for Africa's new largest economy. This represents 7.7 percent of its GDP vanishing, or more than the country spends on education and healthcare. These numbers paint a harsh picture about the inability of the Nigerian government, and the multinational oil companies in the Niger Delta, to do anything about this rampant theft.
Tuesday, July 08, 2014
Are We Running Out of Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: For many years, a number of industry experts have been sounding the alarm that America, and the world, are about to run out of oil.
This is nothing new. In 1914, the Bureau of Mines said that U.S. oil reserves would be exhausted by 1924. The Interior Department said global reserves would last 13 years… and that was in 1939. In 1956, Shell Oil geoscientist Marion King Hubbert advanced his peak oil theory, which said that world oil production had peaked and would begin to decline until all of the oil was gone.
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Monday, July 07, 2014
Bearish Reversal In Play For Crude Oil Price? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Gregor_Horvat
Crude Oil has turned bearish in the last two weeks and is now already testing the trendline connected from the start of January. As such, a three wave rally up in wave 2) can be finished, which means that bearish trend may even accelerate in the next couple of weeks. We however, still need a decisive break of that line as well as a daily close beneath wave B level; 101.60 support.
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Friday, July 04, 2014
A Crude Interruption? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Tony_Caldaro
In the world of financial assets everything appears to be calm. Risk is on, CDS premiums and the VIX near all time lows, short/long term interest rates cheap, and central banks continue to flood the markets with liquidity. So how could a “black swan” arise from the ashes to disrupt the world’s economy?
Thursday, July 03, 2014
Crude Oil Price Heading North or South? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Tuesday, crude oil lost 0.30% as the combination of Chinese and U.S. data weighed on the price. Because of these numbers, light crude declined temporarily below its nearest support zone and closed the day slightly above it for the second day in a row. Will we see a breakdown or a rebound from here?
Tuesday, July 01, 2014
Crude Oil Price Breakdown or Trap? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Although crude oil moved little higher on Friday, hitting an intraday high of $106.19, the commodity reversed and posted its second weekly loss in three weeks as the immediate threat of losing Iraqi oil supply due to violence in the country faded. As a result, light crude closed the week below the medium-term support. Will it trigger further deterioration?
Sunday, June 29, 2014
What’s Driving America’s Oil Boom (This Could Make You a Bundle) / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
The amount of oil produced in the U.S. has skyrocketed more than 50% over the last six years.
Now small towns all across the U.S. are filling with new-found wealth… and a new breed of millionaires.
Who’s leading the way? It certainly isn’t the big major oil companies.
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Saturday, June 28, 2014
Is Crude Oil Price Breaking Out? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Investment_U
Christopher Rowe writes: Light sweet crude oil has broken out of an ascending triangle with a minimum price target close to $113.
The ascending triangle is a pattern that’s formed when an investment vehicle (in this case, light sweet crude) makes even highs and higher lows.
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Saturday, June 28, 2014
How Long Does The OPEC Party Keep Going? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
The 30 Mbd Limit
Temporarily reprieved by Syria, Libya and Iraq oil prices can be kept from falling, or stoked higher by Goldman Sachs and the dwindling band of “oil and energy market maker banks”. These include the now not-so-Teflon market rigging fraudsters Barclays, Deutsche Bank, SocGen, JP Morgan and a small number of others, like BNP Paribas. If you want to know why oil prices are high – ask them.
Tuesday, June 24, 2014
Crude Oil Price Turns Sharply Lower / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Gregor_Horvat
Crude oil has turned sharply lower yesterday, from a new high. A decline on 15min chart can be counted as an impulse, so we think that top has been reached and that price will continue to the south. With that said, keep an eye on any three wave rally back to 106.20-106.40 from where downtrend could resume. 107.34 is now short-term critical resistance, as long this one holds we will be looking down.
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Monday, June 23, 2014
Crude Oil Price Higher Short-Term, Lower Longer-Term? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Friday, crude oil gained 0.54% as ongoing worries over the potential of supply disruptions from Iraq continued to weigh on the price. As a result, light crude climbed above the resistance line, invalidating earlier breakdown. Will this bullish factor trigger further improvement in the short term?
Friday, June 20, 2014
WTI Crude Oil Price on the Move $112 Next Stop / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The energy sector has surged during the last two months which can be seen by looking at the XLE Energy Select Sector Fund. If crude oil continues to climb to the $112 level, XLE will likely continue to rally for another few days or possibly week as energy stocks are considered a leveraged way to play energy price movements.
Thursday, June 19, 2014
The Oil Crisis Price Spike Is Just Getting Started / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: First there was the crisis in Ukraine. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, Iraq exploded into chaos again.
Both testify to one simple truth about today's energy sector: Geopolitical factors are the quintessential wild cards when it comes to estimating energy prices.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 19, 2014
Crude Oil Price Breakdown or Trap? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Tuesday, the price of crude oil wobbled between gains and losses throughout the session as mixed data and profit taking weighed on investors' sentiment. As a result, light crude reversed after an increase to the resistance zone and declined below an important medium-term support line. Will this event be strong enough to trigger a sizable correction?
Thursday, June 19, 2014
Iraq Wake Up Call For Oil Is A Yawn / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
Forward Looking Statements
The IEA's energy scenarios and forecasts for the next 21 years, to 2035, heavily feature long-term increases of oil supply from Iraq to help meet “soaring oil demand”, but the IEA's Factsheet for Oil Supply in Iraq, published 13 June, allows and enables some doubt. In particular this concerns the Agency's previous forecasts of “ever growing Iraqi supply”. In turn, the Agency's continued forecasting of world oil demand increasing by 12 - 15 million barrels a day by 2035 (from the IEA's estimate for early 2014 of about 90 Mbd) should be compared with the actual status and forward trends of oil in world energy. Overall, this raises plenty of doubt on the real need for increasing Iraqi oil supply.
Wednesday, June 18, 2014
Crude Oil Prices Spike as Iraq Chaos Takes Hold / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: First there was the crisis in Ukraine. Then seemingly out of nowhere, Iraq exploded into chaos again.
Both testify to one simple truth about today’s energy sector: Geopolitical factors are the quintessential wild cards when it comes to estimating energy prices.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 15, 2014
We Are So Not Prepared For Another Crude Oil Price Shock / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Rubino
In one sense, energy doesn’t matter all that much to what’s coming. Once debt reaches a certain level, oil can be $10 a barrel or $200, and either way we’re in trouble.
But the cost of energy can still play a role in the timing and shape of the next financial crisis. The housing/derivatives bubble of 2006 -2008, for instance, might have gone on a while longer if oil hadn’t spiked to $140/bbl in 2007. And the subsequent recovery was probably expedited by oil plunging to $40 in 2008.
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Thursday, June 12, 2014
The World's Five Most Important Oil Fields / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Much has been made about the role that hydraulic fracturing – or fracking -- has played in revolutionizing the energy landscape, unlocking vast new reserves of oil trapped in shale rock. This "tight oil" is pouring into the global pool of oil supplies at a crucial time, preventing oil prices from spiking in an age of high demand and geopolitical turmoil.
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Sunday, June 08, 2014
Crude Oil Price Turns Bearish / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Gregor_Horvat
Crude Oil has turned bearish recently, away from 104.00-104.50 resistance where we were looking for a wave (d) high. Notice that market turned nicely down, through the support channel line that confirms the bearish view for a three wave drop into wave (e) back to 100-101 area. Once those levels will be seen, we will turn bullish as big triangle since March could then be near completion. At the moment we see wave c) down in progress so triangle can already be in final stages.
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Friday, June 06, 2014
Crude Oil Prices, Opec And Other Peak Oil Stories / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
When In Doubt, Worry About Oil
One of the starkest oil worry pot pourri presentations – ruthlessly mingling fact, fiction and fantasy (but pretending its all fact) – can be had here http://energypolicy.columbia.edu...
Steve Kopits is the Managing Director of a known and still-in-business oil and energy forecasting firm, Douglas-Westwood. Both Kopits and D-W would appear to be (still) employable, but for how much longer we can only guess. The Kopits presentation is showcased by the Dublin sustainable economy and development firm FEASTA, with an even more ghastly presentation by David Knight called 'Peak Oil and Climate Change – Two Sides of the Same Coin?' FEASTA says that, as it perceives things, Global Warming and Peak Oil are the two largest threats to the planet, human life and civilization.
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Tuesday, June 03, 2014
Canadian Law Makes It Cheaper To Prevent Oil Sands Leaks Than Clean Them Up / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
As the Canadian government pushes a new law rendering pipeline companies liable for all damages from leaks and spills, the only friend to both sides in this polarized world of dirty oil sands is leak prevention technology. On May 14, amid heightened opposition to two planned pipelines, Canada's Natural Resources Ministry unveiled a new law making pipeline operators liable for all the costs and damages related to oil spills, regardless of whether the operators were at fault or demonstrated negligence.
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Monday, June 02, 2014
Crude Oil Price for the Bulls or Bears? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Friday, crude oil lost 0.61% as disappointing U.S. economic data and profit taking weighted on the price. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude declined below $103, approaching its first downside target. What’s next?
On Friday, the data showed that the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index ticked up to 81.9, disappointing analytics expectations for a reading of 82.5. Additionally, the Commerce Department reported that personal spending in the U.S. dropped 0.1% last month, also below expectations for a 0.2% rise, while U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (without food and energy) rose 0.2% in April, in line with expectations. These disappointing data fueled worries that demand in the largest oil-consuming nation wouldn't be strong enough to reduce high supplies.
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Thursday, May 29, 2014
The Colder War and the End of the Petrodollar / Politics / Crude Oil
By: Marin_Katusa
The mainstream media are falling over themselves talking about Russia’s just-signed “Holy Grail” gas deal with China, which is expected to be worth more than $400 billion. But here’s what I think the real news is… and nobody’s talking about it—until now, that is.
China’s President Xi Jinping has publicly stated that it’s time for a new model of security, not just for China, but for all of Asia. This new model of security, otherwise known as “the new UN,” will include Russia and Iran, but not the United States or the EU-28.
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Monday, May 19, 2014
Crude Oil Price At Crossroads / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Friday, crude oil gained 0.61% as strong U.S. economic data and ongoing worries over the crisis in Ukraine weighted on the price. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude came back above $102, but does this growth change the short-term outlook for the commodity?
On Friday, better-than-expected numbers from the housing sector gave crude oil a support. The Census Bureau reported that U.S. building permits rose 8% to 1.080 million units last month (while analysts had expected an increase to 1.010 million units in April) and the Commerce Department showed that U.S. housing starts rose 13.2% last month to 1.072 million units, beating expectations of 980,000 gain (it was the largest increase in five months).
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Thursday, May 15, 2014
Crude Oil Boom Reaches Tipping Point / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Investment_U
Sean Brodrick writes: The tsunami of U.S. petroleum production has been underway for several years, but last month it reached a tipping point.
Global oil production plunged in March thanks to steeply lower OPEC output... while America's production soared to a 26-year high.
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Monday, May 12, 2014
Breakthrough in Crude Oil Price Only A Matter Of Time / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Friday, crude oil hit an intraday high of $101.18 supported by ongoing concerns over tensions in Ukraine. Despite this improvement, the commodity reversed and lost 0.20% as weaker-than-expected economic data from China and a stronger dollar weighted on the price. Because of these circumstances, light crude erased earlier gains and temporarily slipped below the psychological barrier of $100 once again. Is it enough to trigger another sizable downswing?
Friday, May 02, 2014
The Best Way to Profit from Peak Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
The era of cheap oil is over, declares Angelos Damaskos. In this interview with The Energy Report, the principal adviser of the Junior Oils Trust says that oil will become progressively more expensive to find, with prices topping the all-time high of $147 per barrel within 10 to 20 years. He counsels that investors should avoid the majors (too stodgy) and the pure explorers (too risky) and should instead choose producers or near-producers, highlighting five companies with good reserves and room to grow.
The Energy Report: You are the principal advisor of the Junior Oils Trust. What are the advantages of junior oil companies?
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Wednesday, April 30, 2014
The Battle Between WTI and Brent - Why the Oil Price “Spread” is Getting Tighter / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: The spread between WTI and Brent is tightening again.
What’s “the spread?”…
It’s the difference in price between what crude oil futures cost on the NYMEX in New York (the West Texas Intermediate rate) and the rate set in London (the Brent rate).
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Thursday, April 24, 2014
Slippery Oil Prices Keep Traders on their Feet / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Crude oil price slipped on Wednesday and came very close to reaching a two-week low after weak Chinese manufacturing data. The WTI futures contract for May sustained a loss of $2.24 per barrel after it expired on Tuesday April 22 at $102.13 from an opening price of $104.36. Brent for June was also trading low on Wednesday after it already lost 47 cents during the previous day. But the markets remain volatile as the Ukraine-Russia political tensions might cause a price rally any day.
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Sunday, April 13, 2014
Peak Oil And Global Warming – A Question Of Culture / Politics / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
In The Beginning Was the Word
Certainly for the last 20 years these two themes have tunneled into political consciousness, but there are huge differences. Peak Oil was never “official”, but Global Warming or at least anthropogenic global warming quickly became official, in the UN system, EU28 countries, the US, Japan, Canada and Australia, and some other developed countries. Today, in the cases of Japan, Canada and Australia the political commitment has already gone, and the downstream financial spinoff from the global warming theme, which enabled market operators to concoct and play with climate credit default swaps and a host of other all-new paper assets, has seriously ebbed. Outside of these countries, in the G20 and Russia, global warming always had a much tougher ride. Yet another stark Russia-versus-the West split occurred on this issue. Russia has a long and tortuous politically-charged obsession with a coming Ice Age – not the swamping of all coastal cities by global warming melting the planet's ice caps.
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Monday, April 07, 2014
Cheap Oil Could Be a Big Problem / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Investment_U
Steve McDonald writes: According to a recent Barron’s article, the huge shale oil and gas reserves in the U.S. and and worldwide will give a huge boost to the U.S. economy and drive oil prices down to as low as $75 in the next few years.
It only makes sense. According to optimistic estimates, the U.S. could be energy independent by 2020. That means a huge reversal of the status quo.
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Tuesday, March 25, 2014
Crude Oil Price Still Remains Below Important Resistance / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short. Stop-loss orders for crude oil and WTI Crude Oil (CFD): $102.95.
On Friday, crude oil gained 0.95% as concerns about economic sanctions against Russia weighted on the price. In this way, light crude climbed above $100 for the first time since March 11. Despite this increase, crude oil gave up the gains in the following hours and finished the day below this important barrier once again.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 19, 2014
Crude Oil Price Remains In Consolidation / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term, our opinion): Short. Stop-loss orders for crude oil and WTI Crude Oil (CFD): $102.95.
On Tuesday, crude oil gained 1.60% after information that a pipeline connecting Oklahoma storage with Gulf Coast refineries will be open sooner than previously expected. Thanks to this news, light crude rebounded, finishing the day above $99 per barrel.
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Wednesday, March 19, 2014
Mexico Oil Market About to Break Open for Investors / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Kent Moors writes: Marina and I are off again. Early tomorrow morning, I’m making my fourth trip to Mexico City in less than two years.
This time, I’ll be making a major presentation at a Bloomberg advisory session on the recent opening of the Mexican energy markets.
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Wednesday, March 12, 2014
Will OPEC Collapse – Libyan P.M. Flees To Europe / Politics / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
Inevitable Break-up of Libya
Presaged by months of political infighting, and street fighting outside parliament, former Libyan prime minister Ali Zeidan fled from Libya, 12 March, according to newswires. Reuters explained his flight to Europe as due to parliament voting him out of office on Tuesday March 11, following his inability to stop rebels exporting oil independently. Reuters and other newswires added that the rebel forces set a “brazen challenge to the nation's fragile unity”, and had actively threatened Ali Zeidan with assassination, several times.
Thursday, March 06, 2014
Crude Oil Price Sharp Drop / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Wednesday, crude oil lost 2.27% as tensions cooled in Ukraine and U.S. supply data missed investors’ expectations. Because of these circumstances, light crude erased all its gains from Monday's jump and dropped below $101 per barrel.
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Monday, March 03, 2014
New Spy Technology to Spawn Oil Revolution / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The future of oil exploration lies in new technology--from massive data-processing supercomputers to 4D seismic to early-phase airborne spy technology that can pinpoint prospective reservoirs. Oil and gas is getting bigger, deeper, faster and more efficient, with new technology chipping away at “peak oil” concerns. Hydraulic fracturing has caught mainstream attention, other high-tech developments in exploration and discovery have kept this ball rolling.
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Monday, March 03, 2014
Does the Keystone XL Pipeline Still Matter? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Ronan_Keenan
Last month it seemed the Keystone XL pipeline was nearing approval, but as with most things surrounding the project, things weren’t as they seemed. A US state department report reviewed the Alberta, Canada–Nebraska pipeline and indicated the project was unlikely to have a significant impact on climate change. This seemed like a significant positive step for pipeline, but within the details of report were critical comments from the Environmental Protection Agency.
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Sunday, February 23, 2014
Gold and Crude Oil Short-term Outlook / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Gregor_Horvat
Gold has moved well above 1300 mark, and is forming an extended leg from 1251, triangle low. Notice that we have adjusted the wave count, but we see a corrective advance from 1181 now at 1330 resistance. We are observing more simple count now this time; a zigzag with a triangle placed in wave (b). We also know that wave (b) pattern CANNOT be labeled as wave two, because triangles never occur in wave two position. So, because of that situation we are even more confident that rally is a contra-trend and that gains will be limited. A decline beneath 1290 area could be an important sign for a confirmed top.
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Saturday, February 22, 2014
Crude Oil Price Declines Slightly / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Thursday, crude oil moved lower as the U.S. dollar strengthened after solid U.S. economic data and stocks of distillates fell less-than-expected. Despite this small drop, light crude still remains near a 4-month high, slightly below $103 per barrel.
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Monday, February 17, 2014
America's 99 Problems… But Crude Oil Ain’t One of Them / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Marin_Katusa
America has some serious problems.
Despite the fact that the United States spends $15,171 per student—more than any other country in the world—American students consistently trail their foreign counterparts, ranking 23rd in science and 31st in math.
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Friday, February 14, 2014
Oil Trading Alert: Crude Oil Price Hits Fresh Monthly High / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Wednesday, crude oil rose on better than expected economic data from China and climbed to its highest level since late October. Despite an increase to a fresh monthly high, light crude reversed after the EIA data showed that crude inventories rose more than expected. In this way, crude oil lost 0.11%, but closed the day above $100 per barrel.
Monday, February 10, 2014
Crude Oil Trading Alert: Oil Price Hits Fresh Monthly High / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil gained 2.27% as the U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies after a monthly U.S. employment report came in weaker than expected. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude extended gains and rose above $100 per barrel for the first time in more than a month.
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Tuesday, February 04, 2014
Oil Trading Alert: Crude Oil Price Extends Declines / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Monday, crude oil lost 0.84% as weaker-than-expected U.S. and Chinese economic data fueled concerns over crude oil demand. Thanks to this news, light crude closed the day below $97 for the first time since Jan 27.
Data released over the weekend showed that China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index dropped to a six-month low, falling to 50.5 in January from 51.0 in December. This weaker-than-expected numbers raised questions about economic growth in the world's second largest oil consumer (after the U.S.) and weighted on the price of light crude.
Tuesday, February 04, 2014
NYMEX No Future For Crude Oil Futures / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
Potatoes to Oil
According to Leah McGrath Goodman's well-researched book “The Asylum: The Renegades Who Hijacked the World's Oil Market", the start of Nymex oil trading was in major part due to traders who stumbled upon oil futures after screwing up Maine potato futures. Their trading “industry” or gambling party had been built on predicting the Maine potato harvest, and—much more importantly—trying to manipulate potato prices, to the point that regulators were finally forced to act. They shut down the potato futures market in 1976, after repeated defaults on physical deliveries of more than 25 000 tons of potatoes. As Goodman explains, the traders were forced to cast around for something else to trade. Then-Chairman of the Nymex, Michael Marks tried to boost futures trading in boneless beef and plywood, but that didn't work. In 1978 however, Marks hit on the right thing and introduced heating oil futures - which was the jackpot gusher that led to 30 years of good times.
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Tuesday, January 21, 2014
OPEC Warned On 2014 Crude Oil Supply Glut / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
TIMELY ADVICE TO OPEC
Leo Drollas, the head of the Saudi-backed, London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies in a 3 December interview with New Europe on the eve of the 4 December OPEC meeting, itemized several supply-side reasons why present high oil prices are not forever. Apart from the USA's record-breaking output of oil driven by its shale-oil production, Drollas said: “Next year, Iraqi oil will increase by 300,000 barrels a day, we think at least, there will be 250,000 more from Venezuela, there will be possibly 1 more million barrels from Iran, when Iran comes back, and Libyan oil should return”.
Friday, January 17, 2014
Brent Crude Oil Price Faces Headwinds in 2014 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
EIA Petroleum Report
In reviewing the EIA weekly petroleum report, the oil imports figure came in at 6.889 (Million Barrels per Day) for the week ending 01/10/14. This number compared to a year ago 8.030 (Million Barrels per Day) puts a nice cap on the downtrend which really started gaining steam in 2010 onward.
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Thursday, January 09, 2014
Violence Threatens to Thwart Iraqi Crude Oil Resurgence / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
A wave of violence has swept parts of Iraq at the start of 2014 as the central government fights back against Al-Qaeda aligned militants in Anbar Province. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) reportedly took control of Ramadi and Fallujah, bombing police headquarters and killing dozens. On New Year's Day Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki sent in reinforcements to take back control of Anbar Province's two largest cities. The clashes kick off 2014 in much the same way as 2013 ended – a return to violence in a country that had seen important security gains in recent years.
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Thursday, January 09, 2014
What 2014 Has in Store for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: DailyGainsLetter
Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: Since September 2013, crude oil prices have come down. This has left many investors question where they are headed next. In September of last year, crude oil prices reached as high as $110.00, and now they trade almost 15% lower, around the $94.00 level. Look at the chart below to get the precise picture.
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Saturday, December 28, 2013
Crude Oil Price Corrective Rally / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Gregor_Horvat
Crude oil is still trading to the upside towards $100 per barel. It seems that move from 96.20 is in five waves so we adjusted the wave count as market could already be making wave C, final leg of wave 4) that could turn down from 100-101 resistancea area.
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Thursday, December 26, 2013
Relaxing U.S. Crude Oil Exports Ban is Bad News for Consumers / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
US Energy Boom
The US is producing much more energy domestically the last decade in all forms from natural gas to crude oil with a myriad of boutique products along the way, and so it is natural for producers to want to maximize profits by expanding their marketplace.
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Friday, December 20, 2013
What the Fed Taper Means for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Yesterday afternoon, after much gnashing of teeth, the Fed finally revealed its long awaited taper plans…
And the DOW jumped by almost 300 points.
Now, the taper itself is small to start – just a $10 billion reduction for the month of January. But the announcement was coupled with a pledge to keep the fed funds rate at zero beyond the 6.5% unemployment threshold.
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Wednesday, December 18, 2013
Collapse Looming for Crude Oil Market in 2014? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Pravda
Foreign experts provide devastating forecasts for the oil market and believe that the conflicts in the Middle East would affect the value of "black gold." According to the experts, price per barrel will fall at least five times. One of the major players, the Russian Federation, will then be in a disadvantaged position. However, Russian experts were quite amused by these forecasts.
Monday, December 16, 2013
How China Just Grabbed 90% of Ecuador’s Oil / Politics / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: I was a guest on Chinese national television last night. The discussion was via a live satellite link that had me sitting in a Pittsburgh studio with the feed traveling through their affiliate in Washington.
I’ve done this before. But this time the discussion was all about a subject I have been personally involved in.
It had to do with the big Chinese move into Ecuador – one that has given Beijing the upper hand over who really controls of the country’s oil.
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Wednesday, December 11, 2013
Crude Oil Prices Could Fall to $80/Barrel? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: InvestmentContrarian
George Leong writes: Oil prices are heading higher on the chart with the cash West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rallying back toward the $100.00 level after threatening to test $90.00.
Steady economic signs in the United States, China, and Japan—the three largest economies in the world—along with some muted growth in the eurozone and Europe are adding some spark to the oil futures… But hold on; doesn’t the buying seem somewhat premature?
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Wednesday, December 11, 2013
Crude Oil Price Three Legs Up To $100 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Gregor_Horvat
Crude oil reversed sharply to the upside last week so it seems that five waves down completed wave 3) and that current rally is a part of a contra trend reaction. We are talking about wave 4) that could stop around 100 area, but after three legs. For now, we see only one leg from the lows so expect to see more sideways or even bullish price action during the next few days.
Saturday, December 07, 2013
OPEC Warned On 2014 Crude Oil Supply Glut / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
TIMELY ADVICE TO OPECLeo Drollas, the head of the Saudi-backed, London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies in a 3 December interview with New Europe on the eve of the 4 December OPEC meeting, itemized several supply-side reasons why present high oil prices are not forever. Apart from the USA's record-breaking output of oil driven by its shale-oil production, Drollas said: “Next year, Iraqi oil will increase by 300,000 barrels a day, we think at least, there will be 250,000 more from Venezuela, there will be possibly 1 more million barrels from Iran, when Iran comes back, and Libyan oil should return”.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 06, 2013
Crude Oil Price Outlook / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
In our previous essay we focused on the oil-stocks-to-oil ratio and its implications for oil stocks. However, at the end of November we checked this ratio to find out what impact it could have on future crude oil's moves. At that time we wrote the following:
Read full article... Read full article...(...) the first thing that catches the eye on the above chart is a strong negative correlation between the ratio and the price of light crude.(...) the ratio remains in the gap between the April 2009 low and May 2009 high (...). In all previous cases, such a position of the ratio triggered a correction, which resulted in higher prices of light crude. Additionally, the ratio has approached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (based on the entire 2009-2011 decline), which is a strong resistance level. Taking the above into account, if history repeats itself once again and the ratio declines, we will likely see the bottom of the current correction.
Thursday, December 05, 2013
The Future of OPEC / Politics / Crude Oil
By: STRATFOR
The prospect of revitalized oil production in Iraq and Iran may add to tensions between those two countries and Saudi Arabia over export quotas. On Dec. 4, representatives of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet in Vienna to discuss a number of topics. OPEC is facing two challenges. First, OPEC's historically biggest consumer -- the United States -- is rapidly increasing its own domestic production. At the same time, OPEC must deal with plans to expand oil production envisioned both by Iraq and Iran, which could lead to lower prices than the cartel desires. Ultimately, however, emerging markets in Asia will set global demand, and their energy thirst will determine the scale of the problem OPEC faces.
Tuesday, December 03, 2013
Will Strong Resistance Zone Stop the Oil-Stocks-to- Crude Oil Proce Ratio’s Rally? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
In our last commentary on oil stocks from Nov. 20, we examined the NYSE Arca Oil Index (XOI) to find out what the current outlook for oil stocks was. In the summary, we wrote that the combination of a strong resistance level (the upper line of the smaller rising wedge) and the position of the RSI may encourage sellers to lock profits and trigger another correction in the coming days.
Saturday, November 30, 2013
Brent-WTI Crude Oil Premium - Strangers In The Night / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
STRANGERS IN THE NIGHT
'Oil & Gas Journal' in an article by RBN Energy in its July 23, 2013 edition, when the premium or differential for Brent grade oil against US West Texas Intermediate collapsed to nearly zero from highs above $25 in 2011 and 2012, and a 2013 peak of $23 to date, said that despite the rebounds and recoveries, the premium has to decline. Its fundamentals are bad, the logic is bad, and the premium has strong headwinds. For oil brokers and traders, however, the heavily traded “premium trade” is still good for a flutter on the markets. Brent's premium shook itself out of bed and jumped from $14.64 to $16.21 in the week ending Nov 22, in two days trading but fell back the following week.
Saturday, November 30, 2013
Soaring U.S. Crude Oil Storage - Set to Pass 400 Million Threshold / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
Trend is to Store more Oil
A year ago oil in storage stood at 274 million barrels, and with another robust year of domestic production, and despite curtailed imports, the US Oil Inventory stands at 391 million barrels and climbing.
We are still technically in the building season for oil supplies which peaked in late May just shy of 400 Million Barrels, before the drawing season kicked off with the exporting of gasoline through increased refinery utilization led by the gulf coast refiners with their increased capacity to take advantage of the spread differential and cheaper operational energy in natural gas to export refined products more competitively than peer nations.
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Friday, November 29, 2013
What the Iranian Nuke Deal Means for the Crude Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: The big news over the weekend was the apparent “breakthrough” with Iran.
I say “apparent” because we don’t know much about the substance of the deal. The reason is because the substance doesn’t exist yet.
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Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Crude Oil Price Balancing Act For The Trader Community / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
MODERATION AND EXCESS
In the immediate wake of the Iran sanctions-unwinding agreement thrown together with many unanswered question in Geneva, Sunday night, Brent crude fell $2.29 or about 2.7% to settle at $108.76 a barrel, while US-traded West Texas Intermediate was down $1.44 to $93.40, in response to the agreement. Analysts were however quick to warn that Iranian exports are unlikely to jump in the short term because key limitations on sales – including a ban on crude oil but not finished product exports to the EU – will remain in place until a comprehensive deal is reached, starting six months from now.
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
The Iran Nuclear Deal: What the Big Six Really Have to Gain / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Marin_Katusa
Over the weekend, the world changed.
Officials from Iran made a deal with six countries (the US, Russia, China, England, France, and Germany)—in exchange for suspending the world's sanctions on Iran, Iran will curb its nuclear weapons program.
Though it's only a six-month interim agreement for now, it's an important first step toward bringing Iran economically closer to the rest of the world.
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Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Stocks to Oil Ratio Implications for Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
In our commentary from Nov. 14, you could read about the connection between oil stocks and the general stock market. Back then, we wrote the following:
(…) we clearly see that the XOI and the S&P 500 have moved roughly in the same direction in the recent years (…) a strong positive correlation remains in place also on a short-term basis.
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Thursday, November 21, 2013
Can Oil-Stocks-to-Oil Ratio Tell Us Crude Oil Price Future Moves? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
In our essay on oil stocks from Nov. 14, we focused on the connection between the XOI and the general stock market to find out what impact the S&P500 index could have on the oil stock index's future moves. Back then, we also wrote about the relationship between the oil stocks and crude oil:
(...) crude oil has remained in the narrow range, but yesterday it climbed above $95. What's interesting, at the same time the XOI increased slightly above an important resistance. Although they moved in the same direction after weeks of negative correlation, this positive correlation might be just another temporary phenomenon - especially when we factor in the weekly outlook.
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Monday, November 18, 2013
Why is Crude Oil Overpriced? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
POLITICAL RISK VERSUS ENERGY ECONOMICS
Expressed in terms of price for 1 barrel equivalent of oil energy at present market prices, world coal costs about $14.50 per barrel FOB (before transport costs), US domestic natural gas costs about $20.50 per barrel, while European and Asian natural gas is priced at more than $65 per barrel, but will surely and certainly decline in the next 3 – 4 years.