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Gold Falls Despite Fed’s QE4 - ZIRP Now Tied To Unemployment

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Dec 13, 2012 - 06:25 AM GMT

By: GoldCore

Commodities

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,694.75, EUR 1,299.16 and GBP 1,051.46 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,712.50, EUR 1,315.59 and GBP 1,061.69 per ounce.

Silver is trading at $32.81/oz, €25.22/oz and £20.42/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,619.00/oz, palladium at $678.00/oz and rhodium at $1,060/oz.


Platinum is trading at $1,619.00/oz, palladium at $678.00/oz and rhodium at $1,060/oz.Gold was up $1.30 or 0.08% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,711.30/oz. Silver rose $0.43 to $33.38 before it fell back near unchanged in late morning trade, but then it surged to as high $33.78 in afternoon trade and finished with a gain of 1.43%.

Gold Chart by Tick, Dec. 7-13 – (Bloomberg)

Gold fell nearly 1% in illiquid markets in Asia overnight. Some traders may have decided to take profits on the short term long the FOMC announcement trade. Gold bullion prices had already ran up to $1,723 in the 2 weeks prior to the policy statement.

Overnight, as prices fell below the 100-day moving average at $1,705, stop-loss selling was triggered which pushed prices lower quickly.

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve took the bold, some would say reckless step, of linking its monetary policy to unemployment, creating concerns that the U.S. dollar will be debased even more in the coming months.

The US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at close to zero until unemployment falls below 6.5%. This is a historic and very radical change to monetary policy. It is the first time a large central bank has ever tied its interest rate policy directly to one facet of the economy – unemployment.

The Fed said that it will maintain ultra loose monetary policies for the foreseeable future and the Fed will in effect double the pace of dollar creation.

The Fed announced it plans to buy $45 billion per month in longer-term Treasuries in addition to the $40 billion per month in mortgage-backed securities, as expected.

With the unemployment rate at 7.7 per cent in November, the move signals low interest rates for the foreseeable future, and it replaces the Fed’s earlier pledge of low rates “at least through mid-2015.”

All of this is bullish for gold and we would expect the moves to put upward pressure on gold prices in the coming weeks. There have been a few occasions where extremely loose monetary policy announcements have not seen an immediate rise in gold prices and this will likely be the case again.

Gold Chart Yearly, 2011-present – (Bloomberg)

In the run up to the year end the fiscal cliff negotiations will put pressure on the U.S. dollar as will the more important $16 trillion and rapidly growing national debt and the $50 trillion to $100 trillion in unfunded liabilities.

The European Union has agreed to give the European Central Bank the authority to directly supervise the eurozone's biggest banks and intervene in smaller banks at the first sign of difficulty.

Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)

Strong support for gold is at the 200 day moving average at $1,662/oz, however there has been physical buying today on the dip below $1,700/oz.

ScotiaMocatta, Barclays Capital and UBS flag support at $1,684/oz, gold's November low

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This update can be found on the GoldCore blog here.

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Mark O'Byrne
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Disclaimer: The information in this document has been obtained from sources, which we believe to be reliable. We cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. It does not constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment. Any person acting on the information contained in this document does so at their own risk. Recommendations in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Individual circumstances should be considered before a decision to invest is taken. Investors should note the following: Past experience is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of investments may fall or rise against investors' interests. Income levels from investments may fluctuate. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value of, or income from, investments denominated in foreign currencies. GoldCore Limited, trading as GoldCore is a Multi-Agency Intermediary regulated by the Irish Financial Regulator.

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