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Stock Market Fiscal Cliff Happy Ending???.......

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Dec 18, 2012 - 05:52 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


That's what Wall Street is hoping for today or sometime very soon. A happy ending to what we all don't want to see happen regarding the fiscal cliff as the ramifications will be far reaching. Unemployment will increase as will outsourcing along with higher taxes. Fewer and fewer will feel any job security, thus, putting the economy into recession. If there's no resolution to the fiscal cliff, it's basically etched in stone we'll see at least a few quarters of recession, if not longer, potentially much longer. Washington knows what's at stake here. They may be incredibly stubborn, but they're not stupid, at least I don't think they are. We'll find out if they are as playing chicken as it won't be a very wise action on either sides part.

We saw what can happen today with the market on even the slightest sliver of hope between the two sides. There was news that some real progress was being made, which resulted in futures moving higher. That held throughout the morning, with the market building on its gains throughout the day, even though there was the usual midday pullback. It was bought up the way it should in a more positive developing environment. We closed with a rush higher as hope escalated into the close. That's really good to see. Nothing bearish for now. The charts are all positive in nature.

The overseas markets have been leading higher for some weeks to months now. We have been lagging pretty badly. Germany, and many other Euro countries, have seen their stock markets break out, but we just haven't been able to get moving such as they have. I would have thought that our fiscal cliff worries are the worries of all Euro countries, but that hasn't been the case. Some better news out of China has helped their market rock up as well. The United States usually leads both up and down, thus, it seems there's plenty of upside potential should our fiscal cliff headache be put properly to rest. We could run quite a ways if things break just right on that front, but without a resolution we will undoubtedly continue to lag way behind. In reality, our bad news would probably end up being bad news for everyone else.

We're acting better technically and that's not an accident. I have often said the market smells out a result long before it's actually taken place. It's acting as if the fiscal cliff problem has already been resolved. You can never guarantee anything, but the overseas action, and today's late action, may be speaking volumes about a resolution coming sooner than later. We can only hope. It would be a huge win for our economy and for all people. Hopefully, the message from the overseas markets, and now finally ours a bit more, has things working out in the end after all. A happy ending? Very possible.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is a key stock as we all know. It fell two hundred points for all intents and purposes as it went from 703 down to 505. It had a very nice rally back up, only to see it fall hard back down and test 505 once again today. It actually printed in the 496's pre-market. It gapped lower and then finished very powerfully, a strong bottoming-type candle that, hopefully, has the retest in as the lows today. There has been a strong positive divergence on the daily chart of AAPL, but it's useless until you see the bottoming stick. AAPL has massive resistance everywhere, but this type of day can at least put in a temporary, if not a bit longer-term, bottom.

There are no guarantees at any time in this game, but if technical analysis has any say in things, today should have seen that double-bottom test do the trick for the bulls. Hard to fight what you see. There's reason for hope as this leader has taken it on the chin for quite some time now. Things are hopefully looking up for it, and thus, the market. With all the daily index charts back testing, and holding those key exponential moving averages, things are looking up somewhat for the market for the short-term. The S&P 500 has key support at 1412, or the 50-day exponential moving average. As long as that holds, the market is fine.



Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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© 2012

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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