Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Why Record-High Stock Prices Mean You Should Buy More - 20th Nov 19
This Invisible Company Powers Almost the Entire Finance Industry - 20th Nov 19
Zig-Zagging Gold Is Not Necessarily Bearish Gold - 20th Nov 19
Legal Status of Cannabis Seeds in the UK - 20th Nov 19
The Next Gold Rush Could Be About To Happen Here - 20th Nov 19
China's Grand Plan to Take Over the World - 19th Nov 19
Interest Rates Heading Zero or Negative to Prop Up Debt Bubble - 19th Nov 19
Plethora of Potential Financial Crisis Triggers - 19th Nov 19
Trade News Still Relevant? - 19th Nov 19
Comments on Catena Media Q3 Report 2019 - 19th Nov 19
Venezuela’s Hyperinflation Drags On For A Near Record—36 Months - 18th Nov 19
Intellectual Property as the New Guild System - 18th Nov 19
Gold Mining Stocks Q3’ 2019 Fundamentals - 18th Nov 19
The Best Way To Play The Coming Gold Boom - 18th Nov 19
What ECB’s Tiering Means for Gold - 17th Nov 19
DOJ Asked to Examine New Systemic Risk in Gold & Silver Markets - 17th Nov 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Cycle Update and are we there yet? - 17th Nov 19
When the Crude Oil Price Collapses Below $40 What Happens? PART III - 17th Nov 19
If History Repeats, Gold is Headed to $8,000 - 17th Nov 19
All You Need To Know About Cryptocurrency - 17th Nov 19
What happens To The Global Economy If Oil Collapses Below $40 – Part II - 15th Nov 19
America’s Exceptionalism’s Non-intervention Slide to Conquest, Empire - and Socialism - 15th Nov 19
Five Gold Charts to Contemplate as We Prepare for the New Year - 15th Nov 19
Best Gaming CPU Nov 2019 - Budget, Mid and High End PC System Processors - 15th Nov 19
Lend Money Without A Credit Check — Is That Possible? - 15th Nov 19
Gold and Silver Capitulation Time - 14th Nov 19
The Case for a Silver Price Rally - 14th Nov 19
What Happens To The Global Economy If the Oil Price Collapses Below $40 - 14th Nov 19
7 days of Free FX + Crypto Forecasts -- Join in - 14th Nov 19
How to Use Price Cycles and Profit as a Swing Trader – SPX, Bonds, Gold, Nat Gas - 13th Nov 19
Morrisons Throwing Thousands of Bonus More Points at Big Spend Shoppers - JACKPOT! - 13th Nov 19
What to Do NOW in Case of a Future Banking System Breakdown - 13th Nov 19
Why China is likely to remain the ‘world’s factory’ for some time to come - 13th Nov 19
Gold Price Breaks Down, Waving Good-bye to the 2019 Rally - 12th Nov 19
Fed Can't See the Bubbles Through the Lather - 12th Nov 19
Double 11 Record Sales Signal Strength of Chinese Consumption - 12th Nov 19
Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Oil, Gold and Stocks Investing – Part II - 12th Nov 19
Gold Retest Coming - 12th Nov 19
New Evidence Futures Markets Are Built for Manipulation - 12th Nov 19
Next 5 Year Future Proof Gaming PC Build Spec November 2019 - Ryzen 9 3900x, RTX 2080Ti... - 12th Nov 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

$4 Billion Golden Oppoerunity

Silver Prices and the Return of the Yen Carry Trade

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Dec 21, 2012 - 12:12 PM GMT

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Commodities

In the futures pits, silver traders are seeing prices move downward as a result of the expression of market structure.

Nevertheless, that market structure and its macro economic back drop is now changing, as the currency wars heat up once again as the world moves into a new year.


Europe seems surprisingly quiet as the U.S. congress debates the fiscal deficit farce and the much publicized Fiscal Cliff looms large on the country’s time horizon.

For its part, Japan has elected a new Prime Minister who has thrown out the previous Japanese government budget with promises of more economic stimulus.   In addition, he has been potentially fomenting Japan’s already precarious relationship with its giant neighbor China.

The Yen Carry Trade

As a result of historically low benchmark interest rates in Japan, the Japanese Yen carry trade has been one of the primary long term strategies used by fund managers to profit from the forex market in recent years. 

Although largely financed by exceptionally low Japanese interest rates relative to those observed elsewhere in the developed world, this carry trade strategy becomes even more profitable if the exchange rate of the other currency relative to the Japanese Yen remains fairly stable and leveraged transactions are available.

The basic Yen carry trade consists of selling Japanese Yen or borrowing in Yen and then using the proceeds to buy another higher interest rate currency, such as the Australian or New Zealand Dollars in today’s forex market. The trader hopes to hold the position over the long term in order capture the favorable interest rate differential, and leverage serves to magnify any returns seen.

Nevertheless, prior to 2008 when the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy sparked off the world’s latest Financial Crisis, the U.S. Dollar could also have been a relatively attractive long currency choice since U.S. interest rates were higher than they are today.

Is the Carry Trade Returning?

Interestingly, the forex market may soon be seeing the return of the USD/JPY carry trade given the new Japanese Prime Minister’s policies that have already led to declines in Japanese bond prices to test support.

If this is the case, then the point is that the resurgence of the Yen carry trade could signal a return to risk adversity that in turn could well cause money to flow to commodities like silver as a safe haven.

Furthermore, this occurrence coincides with the Fed’s new Quantitative Easing QE program that begins in January, the United States reaching its increasingly oppressive debt ceiling yet again, and a cleansing of silver market structure as the chronic shorts on the Comex are seeing plenty of long position liquidation to lower open interest and place the silver market into a technically oversold state.

All in all, these factors could well be paving the way for a flow of capital into the silver market as year-end approaches and the New Year begins.

For more articles like this, and to stay updated on the most important economic, financial, political and market events related to silver and precious metals, visit www.silver-coin-investor.com

By Dr. Jeff Lewis

    Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, in addition to running a busy medical practice, is the editor of Silver-Coin-Investor.com and Hard-Money-Newsletter-Review.com

    Copyright © 2012 Dr. Jeff Lewis- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Dr. Jeff Lewis Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules