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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Investor Inflation Protection, and Profit, from Political Numbers

Economics / Inflation Dec 22, 2012 - 02:43 PM GMT

By: DeepCaster_LLC

Economics

As the miscreants in Washington negotiate solutions to the “fiscal-cliff” and debt-ceiling crises, trial balloons have been floated that agreement has been reached to use a new CPI measure—the C-CPI-U, which tends to understate inflation even more than the CPI-U—as way of deceptively reducing cost-of-living adjustments to Social Security, etc.  Not too surprisingly, public reaction appears to be turning increasingly negative, as the concept gets broader exposure in the popular press.


Public Furor Mounts Over Proposed Use of the C-CPI-U to Short-Change Social Security Recipients on Their Cost of Living Adjustments.  The chain-weighted CPI-U (C-CPI-U) is the fully substitution-based inflation series that is under serious consideration by those in Congress and the White House as a replacement for the CPI, with the goal of cutting Social Security cost-of-living adjustments (COLA) by stealth.  A fully-substitution-based inflation index used in COLA calculations would reflect lower inflation than would the CPI-U or CPI-W (used for Social Security), resulting in fraudulently- and artificially-reduced cost-of-living adjustments to social programs, retirement funds, etc.
If the people controlling the U.S. government were honest, they simply would tell the COLA recipients that payments were being cut as part of the effort to balance the budget.  Yet, no one in Washington has the political courage to suggest such a thing, openly, hence the regular deception that so often surfaces in the headline budget bargaining.  …
Reducing COLA by artificially reducing CPI reporting is not new.  Had the politicians not pursued similar policies successfully in the 1980s and 1990s, Social Security payments would be more than double current levels… annual SGS – CPI Inflation… (using) the 1980-based measure came in at 9.4% in November …” (emphasis added)
Shadowstats.com, “November CPI, Industrial Production”, 12/14/12

The proposed forced Investment of Present and Prospective Retirees 401(K) Assets in U.S. Treasury Paper about which we earlier wrote, is now followed by yet another prospective attack on Retirees Security, and indeed on the Wealth Security of those who hold $US Denominated Assets.

The Prospective Rigging of the CPI Calculation Protocol would , yet again, make the “Official” CPI even further removed from The Inflation Reality.

The Reality is that the current U.S. Inflation Rate, 9.4%, is already Threshold Hyperinflationary.

And, of course, Official Numbers-Rigging is not limited to the U.S. We have earlier noted Chinese and Eurozone Numbers-Rigging as well.

But the Key Point for Investors is understanding the Motivation behind Government and Mega-Banks pushing for e.g., Mandatory Government Securities Investment, and changing the way Inflation is calculated.

The Powers-that-Be in the Global Banking and Finance community know that the ever-increasing Money Printing – QE to Infinity – is already leading to increasing Price Inflation, which they wish to hide, and thus eventually to Massive Sales of Paper Treasury Securities (for which they wish to have Buyers, e.g., via 401(K) Funds).

Of course, Part and Parcel of The Powers’ attempt to extricate themselves from the Crises of their own making is the Ongoing, for years, Campaign by The Cartel (Note 1) to suppress the Price of Gold and Silver.

That is because increasing recognition of the legitimacy of Gold and Silver as Real Money tends to devalue their Paper Treasury Securities and Fiat Currencies.

Regarding the Ongoing Takedown of Gold and Silver Prices, the Advice of Precious Metals Guru, Jim Sinclair, is worth heeding.
Dear My Dear Extended Family,
Hi Jim,
How should I read the negative pressure over gold and gold stocks? What’s going to change this negative scenario?
Respectfully,
Arlen
Dear CIGA Arlen,
This is capitulation everywhere. This event has been a manufactured market move since $1800, with clearly planned and executed intervention. The gold price take downs during low volume periods internationally is a known price moving only tactic.
I simply shut off the machine because all the regular causes for the gold price will make themselves effective with time. A manufactured market event will not change the trend. Even the most professional can be reduced to sheeple by their emotions.
I refuse emotions and emotional people in a market context. To save yourself from all this that has happened and will continue to happen requires commitment and courage.
You have it or you do not. Admit who you are and act accordingly.
Like every mistake made by Westerners, what you see today is simply driving gold into Asian control.
Jim

“How To Read The Negative Pressure Over Gold And Gold Stocks”
Jim Sinclair, jsmineset.com, 12/18/2012

And
My Dear Extended Family,
You cannot fix the problems of the Western Economic system by breaking the telltale thermometer, which is the price of gold.
There is not one professional who does not know sales in extreme volume at a time of low activity internationally have but one purpose, and that is to reduce the price of gold.
Charts and TA in such a manipulated, manufactured market, as understood by you, are totally useless. This is a move of desperation by the Fed via the gold banks based on the false premise that attacking symptoms without meaningful economic intervention is going to cure the problem.
Gold is going to $3500 and above. The US dollar is headed to .7200 and lower.
We are once again giving away greatness by driving gold into the coffers of Asia at bargain process that a powerful academic bureaucrat has selected. It is just that simple.
Nobody said survival from the onslaught of the demons would be easy, but it will be successful.
Respectfully,
Jim

“A Move of Desperation By The Fed”

Jim Sinclair, jsmineset.com, 12/20/2012

And the Advice of brilliant Commodities Trader Dan Norcini is worth heeding as well.

“Nothing will unnerve the paper gold shorts more quickly and do more to undercut their confidence than to strip them of the real metal and force them to come up with more hard gold bullion to make good on deliveries. “Stand and Deliver or Go Home” should be the rallying cry of the gold longs to the paper gold shorts.”
Trader Dan Norcini

Regarding Official Political data, fortunately, there are Official as well as privately Numbers which tend to better reflect Economic and Financial Realities knowledge of which is essential for successful investing.

In China, for example, electricity usage is a better indicator of GDP than say their Massaged and Political GDP Numbers.

Generally, the Prices, Prospects and Trends of Essential Assets which get used, and get used up, are the very Best Indicators upon which to base wise Investment Decisions.

They are the best Indicators because, since they get used up, their prices are hardest to manipulate.

That is why we Metaphorically say that the Price of Crude Oil “tells the Truth”. Similarly, the Price of Essential Food Grains, Wheat, Corn and Soybeans, “Tell the Truth” about Inflation and Economic Activity generally, as well increasing demand the World’s 80 Million per year population growth.

For Profit, Protection and the Real Numbers which reflect Inflation and Economic Activity, track the Prices of the aforementioned Assets which get used up. Regarding our specific Recommendations for profit and protection, see Notes 2, 3 and 4.

Captain Hook’s advice regarding the $US is applicable to most Fiat Currencies.

“…Western central banks are having their bullion reserves run down to keep their scheming ways from being discovered, which will eventually cause the need for a price adjustment upwards. The bad news associated with this is unfortunately most Westerners will not participate because they neither understand nor own many precious metals, which will make surviving a financial meltdown difficult indeed.  

… “without a doubt the ‘big event’ that is coming down the pike eventually that will define the endgame for the American Empire is when it becomes apparent to everybody (including American’s themselves) the $ is on its way out as the world’s reserve currency, and they accelerate the sale of $ denominated and US based assets, which includes debt securities. (i.e. if they are held as investments.) This process is of course already well underway, with direct trade and petro-dollar exclusion deals between countries becoming increasingly common. But the real problem for the $ will come when it loses it’s safe haven status – that’s when there will be no saving the $ from the type of dramatic waterfall event implied possible by the Fibonacci resonance related projection… .

“First they will sell US assets, and then the $, with both of these conditions favorable for higher interest rates and precious metals prices. This is when the Dow to Gold ratio will reach unity, or lower, as the masses realize the emperor has no clothes, meaning the US is as much a financial basket case as Greece, and the only way to preserve one’s wealth is to exit fiat currency related economy(s).

“And there’s only one way to do that – in desired tangibles – with gold and silver at the top of the list.”

Captain Hook via Goldseek.com

For Protection against the Rapidly Eroding Purchasing Power of Fiat Currencies, favorably consider investing in Essential Assets which get used up and above all Buy Physical Gold and Silver and Quality Mining Shares on the Dips.

Best regards,

www.deepcaster.com
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© 2012 Copyright DeepCaster LLC - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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