Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Election Forecast 2015 - Opinion Polls Trending Towards Conservative Outright Win - Nadeem_Walayat
2.UK Solar Eclipse - End Time Sign, Judgement Day, Doomsday! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Gold And Silver - When Will Precious Metals Rally? Not In 2015 - Michael_Noonan
4.Preparing for the Next Stocks Bear Market - Forecast 2015-2016 - Gary_Savage
5.Is a Stock Market Crash Imminent? - David Eifrig
6.Gold Price Slumps as US Dollar Soars, What's Next? - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Dollar Forex Pairs and Gold Chartology - Rambus_Chartology
8.Election Forecast 2015: The Day Labour Lost the General Election - Nadeem_Walayat
9.The ECB Should End QE Next Month - EconMatters
10.Silver Price Poised to Surge - Zeal_LLC
Last 5 days
David Cameron Election 2015 Debate Facts Check - Employment, Immigration, Debt & Deficit - 29th Mar 15
Stock Market About Ready to Crash! - 29th Mar 15
Reflections in a Golden Eye - Gold Market Rejection, Repatriation and Redemption - 28th Mar 15
Stock Market Inflection Point - 28th Mar 15
Gold And Silver - What Moved Price? Bab el-Mandeb And Uranus Square Pluto. What?! - 28th Mar 15
Stock Market Investment Parachutes; Do You Have Yours? - 28th Mar 15
Peak Gold Misunderstanding, is Gold About to Run Out? - 28th Mar 15
Deflation Watch: Key U.S. Economic Measures Turn South - 27th Mar 15
The Hard-Earned Truth About Recreational Real Estate - 27th Mar 15
Bitcoin Price Still in Important Territory - 27th Mar 15
Stocks Bear Market Conditions - Index Market Range Warning - 27th Mar 15
BEA Leaves Q4 2014 U.S. GDP Growth Essentially Unchanged at 2.22% - 27th Mar 15
Brazil Economy Victim of Vulgar Keynesianism - 27th Mar 15
Gold to Fuel Silver Price Upleg - 27th Mar 15
Gold and Silver Stocks Will Rise Again! - 27th Mar 15
Risk of ‘World War’ between NATO and Russia on Ukraine as Yemen Bombed - 27th Mar 15
FOMC Minutes Turned The Gold Tide - 27th Mar 15
Sheffield Hallam Election Battle 2015 - Lib Dems Go to War Whilst Labour Sleeps - 27th Mar 15
Gold Effect On Mining & Shale Wasteland - 27th Mar 15
How Stock Investors Should Play the 2016 Presidential Race - 26th Mar 15
MidEast Energy Alert: Why the Crisis in Yemen Could Get Ugly Very Fast - 26th Mar 15
Stock Market Downward Spiral of Dumbness - 26th Mar 15
The Monetary Approach Reigns Supreme - 26th Mar 15
Stock Market Large Gap Down, Despite the Algos' Push Back - 26th Mar 15
Crude Oil Surges, Gold price Spikes as Middle East Tensions Escalate - 26th Mar 15
The U.S. Housing Market Recovery Is Fabricated Optimism - 26th Mar 15
Why Yemen Is The Next Saudi-Iranian Battleground - 26th Mar 15
The Crude Oil Price Crash and China Economic Slow Down - 26th Mar 15
Global Financial Markets Are More Distorted Than Ever Before - 26th Mar 15
One More Stock Market Rally and Then a Huge Drop Expected - 26th Mar 15
Danger Will Robinson - Stock Market Crash Warning - 25th Mar 15
Learn the Basics of Corrective Elliott Waves - 25th Mar 15
Why CNBC Is Hazardous to Your Financial Health! - 25th Mar 15
Will Your Retirement Accounts Survive The Coming Tax Code "Revolution"? - 25th Mar 15
US Dollar - Americas Phoenix - 25th Mar 15
California’s Epic Drought: Only One Year of Water Left! - 25th Mar 15
What’s Wrong With Silver? - 25th Mar 15
SPX Futures Appear Weak. WTIC and Gold May Be at Max Retracement - 25th Mar 15
We’re at the Dawn of a “New Energy Age” - 25th Mar 15
A Very Weak U.S. Economic Recovery - 25th Mar 15
Zero UK CPI Inflation Rate Prompts Deflation Danger Propaganda For Fresh Money Printing - 25th Mar 15
Stock Market NYSE Hi-Lo Index Aggressive Sell Signal - 24th Mar 15
Palladium Commodity Price Forecast - 24th Mar 15
Bitcoin Price Gearing Up for a Fall - 24th Mar 15
Safety Deposit Boxes In UK Being Closed By ‏HSBC – Not Closing Gold Vaults - 24th Mar 15
Japan Short Term Gains And Long Term Disaster - 24th Mar 15
China's Fragile Evolution - 24th Mar 15
David Cameron Announces Resignation Even Before Being Re-elected, Handing Labour 6 Seats - 24th Mar 15
City of London's Ownership of American Colonies - 24th Mar 15
Stock Market Reversal May Have Begun - 24th Mar 15
Casey Gathers Top Gold Experts to Share Secrets for Making Money in Any Market - 24th Mar 15
Thoughts on The Current Crude Oil Market - 24th Mar 15
U.S. Economy Still on Life Support - What Your Governments Hiding From You... - 24th Mar 15
UK Election Forecast 2015 - Budget Bribes Fail, SNP Insurgency Catastrophe - Video - 24th Mar 15
Is Stock Market Minor Top Taking Hold? - 23rd Mar 15
Greece and EU Running Out of Time as Bank Runs Intensify - 23rd Mar 15
Stock Market Slightly Negative Expectations Following Last Week's Rally - 23rd Mar 15
This Rising Interest Rates Play Could Make You a Quick 55% - 23rd Mar 15
Platinum Commodity Price False Break Low - 23rd Mar 15
The Real Reason The American Dream is Unraveling - 23rd Mar 15
Election Forecast 2015 - Budget Bribes Fail to Impress Voters, Tory's Lose Seats in Opinion Polls - 23rd Mar 15
Silver Price Reliance During U.S. Dollar Rally - 23rd Mar 15
old Price Outlook Dramatic Improvement Following US Dollar Topping Action - 23rd Mar 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

US Economy Still on Life Support

Gold 1980 Top is Key Reference Point for Precious Metals Investors

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Dec 27, 2012 - 11:40 AM GMT

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Commodities

This essay is inspired by a question we received from one of our subscribers. On December 2012, we published an essay on gold and the dollar collapse in which we pointed out why you might profit from gold even if the U.S. dollar doesn't deteriorate completely. Today, we will elaborate on why we actually use the 1980 top in comparisons.

The fact that nobody really knows with absolute certainty where gold will really go from today onward makes people try to make their own guesses about what can happen with the yellow metal. One of the methods to do that is to look back into past situations and try to estimate if what is happening now is somehow similar to those past events.


In fact, history doesn't repeat itself precisely. What happened once doesn't come back in exactly the same way. Because of that the future is not something that is completely predictable and those who aim to predict it (for instance analysts and investment tools). But what happens now can be similar to what has happened before. J.R. Colombo wrote "'History never repeats itself but it rhymes,' said Mark Twain". It may be possible that some patterns repeat themselves. The same goes for everything that's happening with gold. And even if past patterns don't give you any certainty, sometimes they can limit the uncertainty.

The situation in the gold market today is different than that one in 1980 in a few important areas. Let us analyze that in more detail. The chart below presents U.S. inflation figures.

US Inflation 1970-2012

The red line represents official inflation data as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The gold line represents the inflation data calculated according to the methodology used in 1980. There is visible divergence between the two lines after 1980, and particularly after 1985.

Let's focus on the 1977-80 period. The annual inflation rate went up from 5.2% in January 1977 to 14.8% in March 1980. This rise was partially due to the deteriorating political situation in Iran, one of the OPEC nations. In early 1979, Iran saw a revolution which resulted in political power being shifted from the Shah of Iran to a religious leader, Ruhollah Khomeini. In the wake of the revolution, oil exports fell, curtailing global supply and driving prices of oil higher which, in turn, fueled the rise in prices of many other goods.

This is, however, only part of the story. OPEC countries increased oil supply to compensate for shortages but the oil crisis was exacerbated by an embargo on Iranian oil imposed by U.S. President Jimmy Carter following an incident in the U.S. Embassy in Teheran, where more than 60 U.S. citizens had been taken hostages. With the embargo in place and public panic about the availability of oil, buyers rushed to acquire oil while they could. Increased demand caused even further increases in prices, and so the cycle continued. This is quite important as it shows that the effects of adverse events can be worsened by crowd behavior.

From January 4, 1977 to January 21, 1980 the price of gold rose from $135.70 to $850 (526.4%), partially fueled by soaring inflation. Let's take a closer look at this bull market.

Gold 1977-1980

It is particularly worth noting that even though the bull market had started long before 1980, most significant appreciation (in dollar terms) occurred in December 1979 and January 1980 when prices went up from $428.25 (December 3, 1979) to $850 (January 21, 1980). In percentage terms, this last period is slightly less spectacular, but the point here is that the very end of the bull market saw the most significant appreciation in the yellow metal and that the price of gold followed a path of "exponential" growth during this period.

This period of exponential growth was partially triggered by the fact that on December 24, 1979 the Soviet army invaded Afghanistan starting what would escalate to a 10-year-long war. This event, combined with the abovementioned second oil crisis and soaring inflation in the U.S., sent commodity prices sky high. But, once again, this is not the whole story. Namely, inflation and the Soviet war in Afghanistan were decisive in triggering the final rally, but it were emotional reasons that made investors and speculators rush for gold and amplified the price moves.

It is also worth noting that, once the panic about inflation and the war in Afghanistan was over, gold retraced back to as low as $485.25 as soon as on March 27, 1980. So the craze started in December the previous year and lasted for only about four months. And this relatively short period seems to be defining how people perceive the 1980 bull market now.

Now, let's make a quick comparison between 1980 and the current bull market. Back in 1980 official inflation numbers were two-digit, while today they stand at approximately 0% (official data) or 4-10% (inflation calculated according to methodologies which were in place in 1980 or 1990). In 1980 the scare of the Soviet war in Afghanistan was an important factor. Today, the situation in Iraq has been getting less and less attention, particularly since the U.S. withdrew its military personnel from the country in December 2011.

So, there doesn't seem to be a war in the equation, and the current economic environment is deflationary rather than inflationary (official figures). On the other hand, alternative inflation figures suggest that that environment is not as deflationary as one might think. But, all in all, the situation today is in fact very different than it was in 1980. So why do we even use the 1980 top in comparisons?

First of all, even though we don't see inflation eating away at our pockets doesn't necessarily imply that there uncertainty about the economy is limited. Right now, with unemployment at 7.7% and with a debt pile larger than GDP and growing, the U.S. economy doesn't look deprived of uncertainty. To pay off such amounts of debt the economy either needs to start growing or the government can inflate the debt away. So, even though the inflation as seen in 1980 is definitely not here, it is at least possible (and in our opinion - likely) that it will materialize in the future.

Secondly, if the economic situation suddenly deteriorates, we could experience effects similar to the ones seen in 1980 because of the Soviet war in Afghanistan (unlikely but possible). Even if financial turmoil brought gold temporarily lower as in 2008, it seems conceivable that such an event would be followed by strong appreciation of both gold and silver.

Finally, and probably most importantly, even if we don't see considerable inflation or the deterioration of the dollar, we still seem to be in a long-term bull market. This bull market can continue to unfold as in the last decade, quite differently than the 1977-80 appreciation in gold but human emotions haven't changed that much since 1980. So, in the third phase of the bull market, when everybody would want to own gold, we might see a similar "exponential" price growth pattern. Actually, the events could play out a lot quicker than they did in 1980.

The 1980 serves as a reference point but right now the audience that might want to take interest in precious metals is a lot broader than it was back in 1980. As we pointed out in our essay on gold and the dollar collapse, right now there is no Iron Curtain to prevent people from Central and Eastern Europe to take part in the bull market. China and India are developing and investors from these countries may fuel the bull market as well. You can read more on that topic in our report on gold in India. What is more, right now it's a lot easier to manage your money than in was in 1980. Taking or reversing your positions in gold is a matter of seconds and minutes and not hours or days. Because of that, it is possible for any rally in the end stage of the bull market to be even more pronounced than it was in 1980.

To sum up, we use the 1980 top for comparisons not because the current economic situation is very similar to the one in 1979-80. In fact, it's very different in some crucial areas, but the key point is the same - the fundamental situation was positive for gold in 1970s and it is the case right now. We use because it seems that human nature and emotionality hasn't really changed since 1980. We still can see a period of "crazy buying" at the end of the bull market. What has changed, though, is the number of people that can participate in the bull market and the technological infrastructure. Because of that, the 1980 top can only be used as a general reference point and not as a precise target. The changes in the markets may make the final rally of this bull market significantly more volatile than it was in 1980.

Thank you for reading.

If you enjoyed this essay, we invite you to read our other free commentary on gold or to take a look at our gold reports.

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Founder, Editor-in-chief

Gold & Silver Investment & Trading Website - SunshineProfits.com

* * * * *

About Sunshine Profits

Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and best silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing.

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Przemyslaw Radomski Archive

© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014