Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Election Forecast 2015 - Opinion Polls Trending Towards Conservative Outright Win - Nadeem_Walayat
2.UK Solar Eclipse - End Time Sign, Judgement Day, Doomsday! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Gold And Silver - When Will Precious Metals Rally? Not In 2015 - Michael_Noonan
4.Preparing for the Next Stocks Bear Market - Forecast 2015-2016 - Gary_Savage
5.Is a Stock Market Crash Imminent? - David Eifrig
6.Gold Price Slumps as US Dollar Soars, What's Next? - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Dollar Forex Pairs and Gold Chartology - Rambus_Chartology
8.Election Forecast 2015: The Day Labour Lost the General Election - Nadeem_Walayat
9.The ECB Should End QE Next Month - EconMatters
10.Silver Price Poised to Surge - Zeal_LLC
Last 5 days
Sheffield Hallam Election Battle 2015 - Lib Dems Go to War Whilst Labour Sleeps - 27th Mar 15
Gold Effect On Mining & Shale Wasteland - 27th Mar 15
How Stock Investors Should Play the 2016 Presidential Race - 26th Mar 15
MidEast Energy Alert: Why the Crisis in Yemen Could Get Ugly Very Fast - 26th Mar 15
Stock Market Downward Spiral of Dumbness - 26th Mar 15
The Monetary Approach Reigns Supreme - 26th Mar 15
Stock Market Large Gap Down, Despite the Algos' Push Back - 26th Mar 15
Crude Oil Surges, Gold price Spikes as Middle East Tensions Escalate - 26th Mar 15
The U.S. Housing Market Recovery Is Fabricated Optimism - 26th Mar 15
Why Yemen Is The Next Saudi-Iranian Battleground - 26th Mar 15
The Crude Oil Price Crash and China Economic Slow Down - 26th Mar 15
Global Financial Markets Are More Distorted Than Ever Before - 26th Mar 15
One More Stock Market Rally and Then a Huge Drop Expected - 26th Mar 15
Danger Will Robinson - Stock Market Crash Warning - 25th Mar 15
Learn the Basics of Corrective Elliott Waves - 25th Mar 15
Why CNBC Is Hazardous to Your Financial Health! - 25th Mar 15
Will Your Retirement Accounts Survive The Coming Tax Code "Revolution"? - 25th Mar 15
US Dollar - Americas Phoenix - 25th Mar 15
California’s Epic Drought: Only One Year of Water Left! - 25th Mar 15
What’s Wrong With Silver? - 25th Mar 15
SPX Futures Appear Weak. WTIC and Gold May Be at Max Retracement - 25th Mar 15
We’re at the Dawn of a “New Energy Age” - 25th Mar 15
A Very Weak U.S. Economic Recovery - 25th Mar 15
Zero UK CPI Inflation Rate Prompts Deflation Danger Propaganda For Fresh Money Printing - 25th Mar 15
Stock Market NYSE Hi-Lo Index Aggressive Sell Signal - 24th Mar 15
Palladium Commodity Price Forecast - 24th Mar 15
Bitcoin Price Gearing Up for a Fall - 24th Mar 15
Safety Deposit Boxes In UK Being Closed By ‏HSBC – Not Closing Gold Vaults - 24th Mar 15
Japan Short Term Gains And Long Term Disaster - 24th Mar 15
China's Fragile Evolution - 24th Mar 15
David Cameron Announces Resignation Even Before Being Re-elected, Handing Labour 6 Seats - 24th Mar 15
City of London's Ownership of American Colonies - 24th Mar 15
Stock Market Reversal May Have Begun - 24th Mar 15
Casey Gathers Top Gold Experts to Share Secrets for Making Money in Any Market - 24th Mar 15
Thoughts on The Current Crude Oil Market - 24th Mar 15
U.S. Economy Still on Life Support - What Your Governments Hiding From You... - 24th Mar 15
UK Election Forecast 2015 - Budget Bribes Fail, SNP Insurgency Catastrophe - Video - 24th Mar 15
Is Stock Market Minor Top Taking Hold? - 23rd Mar 15
Greece and EU Running Out of Time as Bank Runs Intensify - 23rd Mar 15
Stock Market Slightly Negative Expectations Following Last Week's Rally - 23rd Mar 15
This Rising Interest Rates Play Could Make You a Quick 55% - 23rd Mar 15
Platinum Commodity Price False Break Low - 23rd Mar 15
The Real Reason The American Dream is Unraveling - 23rd Mar 15
Election Forecast 2015 - Budget Bribes Fail to Impress Voters, Tory's Lose Seats in Opinion Polls - 23rd Mar 15
Silver Price Reliance During U.S. Dollar Rally - 23rd Mar 15
Gold Price Outlook Dramatic Improvement Following US Dollar Topping Action - 23rd Mar 15
Wall Street Doesn't Want You to Do This - 22nd Mar 15
The "Natural Interest Rate" Is Always Positive and Cannot Be Negative - 22nd Mar 15
Exploring The Gold Market: The Fed, The Charts. The COTS and GLD - 22nd Mar 15
Stocks Bull Market Continues - 22nd Mar 15
Gold And Silver - China's AIIB Spells U.s. Dollar Demise, Not Clear For Precious Metals - 22nd Mar 15
Cocoa Commodity Price Technical Outlook - 21st Mar 15
Yield Curve, Futures, Suggest No U.S. Interest Rate Hike Until December - 21st Mar 15
Three Iconic Stocks Are Poised for a Dive - 21st Mar 15
We're All Hedge Funds Now! - 21st Mar 15
Why Stock Market Seasonality May Be Critical in 2015 - 20th Mar 15
Yellen's Tiger Riding Dilemma Keeps Interest Rates Near Zero - 20th Mar 15
FOMC is boxed in, Gold and Silver - 20th Mar 15
Silver Price Poised to Surge - 20th Mar 15
Why Aren’t These Investors Worried About The Gold Price? - 20th Mar 15
Gold Price Downside $850/oz; Upside Jump to $2,000/oz on ‘Grexit’ - 20th Mar 15
Cheap Paper Money - Precious Metals Technical Outlook - 20th Mar 15
Best Cash ISA vs Budget 2015 Scrapping Tax on Savings Interest on First £1,000 - 20th Mar 15
GDXJ / Gold Ratio - 20th Mar 15
What the “Yellen Effect” Ultimately Means for Crude Oil - 20th Mar 15
Sharp Fall In USD Index And Its Implications - 20th Mar 15
UK Solar Eclipse - End Time Sign, Judgement Day, Doomsday! - 19th Mar 15
How Many Shale Oil Plays Make Money At $37 Per Barrel? - 19th Mar 15
Gold Price Rises 2.1% – Fed Signals Loose Monetary Policies to Continue - 19th Mar 15
The Hottest Investment Opportunities in Tech Stocks Sector Right Now - 19th Mar 15
China's Deflationary Economic Bust and Beyond: Anne Stevenson-Yang Presentation - 19th Mar 15
T-Mobile CEO: "Sprint couldn't give away service...their network is completely dead" - 19th Mar 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

US Economy Still on Life Support

The Price of Silver in the Age of Broken Promises

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Jan 25, 2013 - 04:33 PM GMT

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Commodities

The price of silver remains at the mercy of the big banks that make of the majority of the short side at COMEX — which is still the primary paper pricing mechanism for silver.

Could silver prices go above $50 and beyond this year — and then perhaps retest $50 as a floor?


Concentration Matters

Remember that it is the concentration that matters most for the price of silver. It does not matter if those large silver short positions are hedged or if a long exists for every short, since that is a fundamental aspect of market driven pricing.

All that matters is that one or two entities hold the majority of that short position and therefore they can and do influence prices. This is the same story that has been told over and over by Ted Butler and GATA for decades.

For comparison purposes, and even when the concentration is calculated without removing swaps, the current level of short market concentration eclipses the amount of silver which the Hunt brothers held long so many years ago and were subsequently persecuted for.

Silver Tests Major Moving Averages

If these dominating banks decide to let silver prices run through the closely watched technical moving averages — which it looks like they might — they could achieve this simply by covering their short positions. Such buying would push the market considerably higher and signal numerous weak longs to enter.  The market could get to $50 in hurry. 

The price of silver has already broken above its 200 day moving average and is now trading just below its 100 day moving average.  A break above the 100 day MA would typically be considered a bullish technical signal.

Silver remains severely undervalued and has been cheap for decades. Nevertheless, silver has continued its managed retreat from its April 2011 high of $49.77, although it has repeatedly held its value in the $26 region.

If silver’s next move up through $35 is shorted the entire way up by the big bullion banks — which will be clearly documented by the COT report — then the market will probably remain within the relatively tight $26-$37.50 trading range that it has been stuck in since September of 2011.

Timing the Silver Rally is Difficult

It remains challenging to time any of the silver rally scenarios or guess about when macro issues will finally start to affect the market price of silver, but higher prices for silver do seem more likely than not over the medium and long term.
 
The silver market has one or two concentrated shorts trading against a heterogeneous group of longs in the world's primary silver pricing mechanism. This seems both irrational and illegal, and it creates price moves contrary to where technical indicators say the market should trade.

Silver investors can become aware of the macro set up, the precariousness of the U.S. Dollar Ponzi scheme, and the competitive currency devaluations occurring around the world. It seems that central banks must print to save themselves, and this factor will continue to fuel investment demand for silver, despite deflationary pressures.

Money printing will fuel demand, but there were two lines in front of many coin shops during silver’s dramatic run up in 1980, with plenty of people in each line — as equal numbers bought and equal numbers sold.
 
Silver’s short term price has become a result of the COMEX shenanigans, while long term demand results from basic monetary flaws in the paper currency used to measure silver’s value.

Currency Debasement War Brightens Silver’s Future

It remains possible that if and when the currency debasement war picks up, it could trigger a sharp upside blow off event in silver.  Furthermore, the path to this rally is fairly certain. World governments are on a race to debase their currencies, which are essentially debt tickets or promises to pay with no intrinsic value.

Filling the world with these broken paper promises destroys faith, erodes savings and undermines the overall economic structure. The bust seems inevitable at some point, but the challenge lies in predicting when that will occur.

This makes long term price of silver forecasting rather difficult - outside of measuring relative purchasing power.

Although paper price manipulation discourages silver investment and the convenience of holding paper derivatives beckons, when the music stops, nine tenths of the law is possession. Having physical metal under your control then becomes the ultimate wealth preserver.

For more articles like this, and to stay updated on the most important economic, financial, political and market events related to silver and precious metals, visit www.silver-coin-investor.com

By Dr. Jeff Lewis

    Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, in addition to running a busy medical practice, is the editor of Silver-Coin-Investor.com and Hard-Money-Newsletter-Review.com

    Copyright © 2013 Dr. Jeff Lewis- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Dr. Jeff Lewis Archive

© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014