Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast - 1st Apr 20
Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? - 1st Apr 20
Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today - 1st Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 1st Apr 20
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion - 1st Apr 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves - 1st Apr 20
Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown - 1st Apr 20
P FOR PANDEMIC - 1st Apr 20
The Past Stock Market Week Was More Important Than You May Understand - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up - 31st Mar 20
Life, Religions, Business, Globalization & Information Technology In The Post-Corona Pandemics Age - 31st Mar 20
Three Charts Every Stock Market Trader and Investor Must See - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast - Video - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20
US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector - 30th Mar 20
Are Gold and Silver Mirroring 1999 to 2011 Again? - 30th Mar 20
Stock Market Next Cycle Low 7th April - 30th Mar 20
United States Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Forecasts Into End April 2020 - 29th Mar 20
Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World - 29th Mar 20
Expert Tips to Save on Your Business’s Office Supply Purchases - 29th Mar 20
An Investment in Life - 29th Mar 20
Sheffield Coronavirus Pandemic Infections and Deaths Forecast - 29th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 28th Mar 20
The Great Coronavirus Depression - Things Are Going to Change. Here’s What We Should Do - 28th Mar 20
One of the Biggest Stock Market Short Covering Rallies in History May Be Imminent - 28th Mar 20
The Fed, the Coronavirus and Investing - 28th Mar 20
Women’s Fashion Trends in the UK this 2020 - 28th Mar 20
The Last Minsky Financial Snowflake Has Fallen – What Now? - 28th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast Into End April 2020 - 28th Mar 20
DJIA Coronavirus Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 27th Mar 20
US and UK Case Fatality Rate Forecast for End April 2020 - 27th Mar 20
US Stock Market Upswing Meets Employment Data - 27th Mar 20
Will the Fed Going Nuclear Help the Economy and Gold? - 27th Mar 20
What you need to know about the impact of inflation - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity, Flattening the Curve and Case Fatality Rate Analysis - 27th Mar 20
NHS Hospitals Before Coronavirus Tsunami Hits (Sheffield), STAY INDOORS FINAL WARNING! - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Curve, Stock Market Crash, and Mortgage Massacre - 27th Mar 20
Finding an Expert Car Accident Lawyer - 27th Mar 20
We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession - 26th Mar 20
US Housing Real Estate Market Concern - 26th Mar 20
Covid-19 Pandemic Affecting Bitcoin - 26th Mar 20
Italy Coronavirus Case Fataility Rate and Infections Trend Analysis - 26th Mar 20
Why Is Online Gambling Becoming More Popular? - 26th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock Markets CRASH! - 26th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity and Flattening the Curve - 25th Mar 20
Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Stock Market Bottoms - 25th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Stock Market Trend Implications - 25th Mar 20
Pandemonium in Precious Metals Market as Fear Gives Way to Command Economy - 25th Mar 20
Pandemics and Gold - 25th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Hotspots - Cities with Highest Risks of Getting Infected - 25th Mar 20
WARNING US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic! - 24th Mar 20
Coronavirus Crisis - Weeks Where Decades Happen - 24th Mar 20
Industry Trends: Online Casinos & Online Slots Game Market Analysis - 24th Mar 20
Five Amazingly High-Tech Products Just on the Market that You Should Check Out - 24th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus WARNING - Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - 24th Mar 20
Rick Rule: 'A Different Phrase for Stocks Bear Market Is Sale' - 24th Mar 20
Stock Market Minor Cycle Bounce - 24th Mar 20
Gold’s century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 24th Mar 20
Big Tech Is Now On The Offensive Against The Coronavirus - 24th Mar 20
Socialism at Its Finest after Fed’s Bazooka Fails - 24th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock and Financial Markets CRASH! - 23rd Mar 20
Will Trump’s Free Cash Help the Economy and Gold Market? - 23rd Mar 20
Coronavirus Clarifies Priorities - 23rd Mar 20
Could the Coronavirus Cause the Next ‘Arab Spring’? - 23rd Mar 20
Concerned About The US Real Estate Market? Us Too! - 23rd Mar 20
Gold Stocks Peak Bleak? - 22nd Mar 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying, Empty Tesco Shelves, Stock Piling, Hoarding Preppers - 22nd Mar 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic as Government Start to Ramp Up Testing - 21st Mar 20
Your Investment Portfolio for the Next Decade—Fix It with the “Anti-Stock” - 21st Mar 20
CORONA HOAX: This Is Almost Completely Contrived and Here’s Proof - 21st Mar 20
Gold-Silver Ratio Tops 100; Silver Headed For Sub-$10 - 21st Mar 20
Coronavirus - Don’t Ask, Don’t Test - 21st Mar 20
Napag and Napag Trading Best Petroleum & Crude Oil Company - 21st Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - Government PANICs! Sterling Crashes! - 20th Mar 20
UK Critical Care Nurse Cries at Empty SuperMarket Shelves, Coronavirus Panic Buying Stockpiling - 20th Mar 20
Coronavirus Is Not an Emergency. It’s a War - 20th Mar 20
Why You Should Invest in the $5 Gold Coin - 20th Mar 20
Four Key Stock Market Questions To This Coronavirus Crisis Everyone is Asking - 20th Mar 20
Gold to Silver Ratio’s Breakout – Like a Hot Knife Through Butter - 20th Mar 20
The Coronavirus Contraction - Only Cooperation Can Defeat Impending Global Crisis - 20th Mar 20
Is This What Peak Market Fear Looks Like? - 20th Mar 20
Alessandro De Dorides - Business Consultant - 20th Mar 20
Why a Second Depression is Possible but Not Likely - 20th Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-bear-market-2020-analysis

Gold And Silver – All Fundamentals/Opinions Are Useless

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Jan 27, 2013 - 12:45 PM GMT

By: Michael_Noonan

Commodities

All general statements are untrue, [including the one above and this one].
There are exceptions to every general rule, so they cannot always be true.

There is truth to the consideration that all fundamentals and opinions are
useless in the markets, as they pertain to timing, and timing plays a huge
role when investing/trading. What fundamentals/opinions do is put one’s
belief system into a context with regard to the market[s]. If one wants to
profit from any belief, he/she is then pitted against the forces of the
marketplace in their exercise.


If you know about the fundamentals, to whatever degree you believe, and/or
if you have an opinion, from whatever source and however reliable or not, the
question then becomes, “What are you going to do about it?” Our premise
topic, fundamentals and opinions are useless, goes back to what we have stated
before:

It does not matter what others say about the market; what matters
is what the market says about others.

People are drawn to articles/information that reinforces their beliefs. Markets
force people to put aside their bias and deal with what is, or else deal with the
consequences if the bias/belief is in conflict. The market is, and always will be,
the final arbiter of all “facts” and “opinions.”

The market is composed of all the known [and not so well-known] facts that affect
supply and demand. “The gold held in New York and London is/may be gone.”
Fact or fiction? The Fed and London ain’t telling, or what they are telling is that
“belief” is untrue. Fiat currencies are being created at unprecedented levels. We
all know that is a fact, and many believe gold and silver will/should recognize that
fact and be priced accordingly, [but are not]. The fundamentals for silver supply and
demand are incredibly bullish. Few can deny that, the few being the Fed and JPM,
et al.

The market knows all of this! Yet, the price of both gold and silver are languishing
in protracted trading ranges. So how valuable are the fundamentals or opinions
about gold going to $5,000, or silver to $400, [pick your own number, as most
undoubtedly have one]?

For right now, and for the pat 18 months or so, the best information in the world,
the strongest opinions held have been “useless.” The charts, [the market translated
into a visual format], reflect the trading ranges, and current prices are just about
dead center within them. The middle of a trading range is where the level of knowledge
is at its lowest. It is a coin toss. Price can rally to the top of the range and still fail, or
it can decline to the bottom of the range and fail to go lower. Flip a coin!

Whatever your opinion of where the price of gold and/or silver should be, this is what
the market is saying about your “belief/opinion:”

[Monthly charts are not included as the month ends next week, and those charts will be
included next week. The discussion for gold is more general, and a little more detail is
given in the silver charts, as both are similar.]

The market is showing price to be in the middle of a lengthy trading range, [TR], and
until the TR is broken, up or down, one is spinning wheels in between. Last week, we
showed how the clustering of closes could signify support and a rally, or a pause before
continuing lower. The gold “rally” fizzled and has retraced back to the clustering. Will
it continue to act as support, or fail?

Not only is gold in the middle of the TR, it is also in the middle of a down channel. It
is anyone’s guess for now.

Let us add that the fundamentals are incredibly bullish, and within that context, we
continue to advocate buying the physical at any price, and buy consistently. Our
analysis pertains to trading/buying the futures. Regardless of the bullish context of
the fundamentals, the market is saying, “Not right now.” Until price rallies above
$1,800, it is not going reach whatever future expectation one may have, which is
all we are saying. For timing, any/all fundamental considerations are useless. For
positioning one’s self in the physical, now is the time. When gold/silver take off,
[even we have a bias], it will be fast and furious [opinion], with no looking back, but
that can be months, Quarters, possibly year[s] away.

The daily chart comments pretty much speak for themselves.

Last week, we noted a long position on the strength of the wide range, strong close bar,
6th bar from the end. The recommendation did not lead to much profit, but profits were
taken prior to the decline, based on developing market activity at the time.

While silver is weaker, relatively to gold, it is behaving relatively stronger of late. Note
how the weekly close is higher/above the clustering of closes, where gold is right at
the clustering location, [both still in the middle!].

As with gold, now is the time to continue accumulating [stacking, as it were] silver at
any price. Sales of the American Eagle are going through the roof and were recently
halted until 28 January. Why the government continues to sell them at all is beyond
us in comprehension, given it is part of the forces [of evil] endeavoring to suppress the
market’s alternative to the insidious issue of fiat.

For as much as an argument can be made that price is holding reasonably well within
the ongoing TR, the “fact” that silver failed to reach the upper channel line is a sign of
weakness. Yet, unlike gold, the decline in silver held above the wide range, strong close
bar where a long position was recommended. You can see the small range high at 32.50,
3rd bar from the end. It was the market’s message telling us that demand was weak. The
long position was liquidated profitably, before the decline set in. Love those messages!

Where will the decline stop? We have no clue, nor do we [or you] need to guess. Instead,
simply wait for developing market activity to indicate demand is overcoming supply. Why
guess when the best source of information will make some kind of factual declaration?!

Maybe price will hold potential support at the clustering of closes, maybe not. What is
more important is that the existing TR is telling everyone to wait, for those inclined to
heed the market’s message. Even on a shorter time frame, within the TR, the market is
STILL saying, price is not strong. Buy the physical, but not the futures.

Fundamental context matters for what side one chooses. The message from the market
matters the most for timing and implementing one’s belief. That is a fact that has never
changed and one that never will. Count on it!

[Just don't take it to the bank. Banks cannot be trusted.]

By Michael Noonan

http://edgetraderplus.com

Michael Noonan, mn@edgetraderplus.com, is a Chicago-based trader with over 30 years in the business. His sole approach to analysis is derived from developing market pattern behavior, found in the form of Price, Volume, and Time, and it is generated from the best source possible, the market itself.

© 2013 Copyright Michael Noonan - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Michael Noonan Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules