Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Will Deutsche Bank Crash The Global Stock Market? - Clif_Droke
3.Gold Price In Excess Of $8000 While US Dollar Collapses - Hubert_Moolman
4.BrExit UK Economic Collapse Evaporates, GDP Forecasts for 2016 and 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Stocks Massive Price Correction - Zeal_LLC
6.Stock Market Predicts Donald Trump Victory - Austin_Galt
7.Next Financial Crisis Will be Far Worse than 2008/09 - Chris_Vermeulen
8.The Gold To Housing Ratio As A Valuation Indicator - Dan_Amerman
9.GDXJ Gold Stocks - A Diamond in the Rough - Rambus_Chartology
10.Gold Boom! End Game Nears As Central Banks Buying Up Gold Mining Companies! - Jeff_Berwick
Last 7 days
Gold’s Moving Averages and Long-Term Outlook - 26th Sept 16
September Stock Market - The Not So Silent Demise of Deutsche Bank - 26th Sept 16
SPX sell signal confirmed - 26th Sept 16
SPX is testing the next level of support - 26th Sept 16
Outrageously Entertaining US Presidential Campaign Final Stages - What Happens Next? - 26th Sept 16
BoJ, FOMC and Where To Now? - 26th Sept 16
Stock Market New All Time Highs Next - 26th Sept 16
Why Trump Will Win US General Election 2016 Prediction Forecast - 26th Sept 16
Martial Law Rolls Out Across the US As Jubilee Nears - 26th Sept 16
Stock Market More Correction Likely - 25th Sept 16
US Presidential Election Forecast 2016 - Trump Riding BrExit Wave into the White House - 25th Sept 16
US Economy GDP Growth Estimates in Free-Fall: FRBNY Nowcast 2.26% Q3, 1.22% Q4 - 24th Sept 16
Gold and Gold Stocks Corrective Action Continues Despite Dovish Federal Reserve - 24th Sept 16
Global Bonds: Why Our Analyst Says Things Just Got "Monumental" - 24th Sept 16
Where Did All the Money Go? - 23rd Sept 16
Pension Shortfalls Could Be 4X To 7X Greater Than Reported - 23rd Sept 16
Gold Unleashed by the Fed - 23rd Sept 16
Gold around U.S Presidential Elections - 23rd Sept 16
Here’s Why Eastern Europe Is Doomed - 23rd Sept 16
Nasdaq NDX 100 Big Cap Tech Breakout ? - 23rd Sept 16
The Implications of the Italian Banking Crisis Could Be Disastrous - 22nd Sept 16
TwinLakes Theme Park Summer Super 6 FREE Return Entry for Real? - 21st Sept 16
Has the Silver Bullet Run Out of Fire Power? - 21st Sept 16
Frack Sand: The Unsung Hero Of The OPEC Oil War - 21st Sept 16
What’s Happening With Gold? - 21st Sept 16
Gold vs. Stocks and Commodities, Pre-FOMC - 20th Sept 16
BrExit UK Inflation CPI, RPI Forecast 2016, 2017 - 20th Sept 16
European banks may be more important than the Fed this week - 20th Sept 16
Gold, Silver, Stocks and Bonds Grand Ascension or Great Collapse? - 20th Sept 16
Mass Psychology in Action; Instead of Selling Gilead it is Time to Take a Closer Look - 20th Sept 16
Hillary - Finally Well Deserved Recognition for Deplorables - 20th Sept 16
Fascist Business Model: Reich Economics - 19th Sept 16
Multiweek Correction in Gold and Silver Markets Continues - 19th Sept 16
Stock Market May Turn Ugly This Week - 19th Sept 16
China Is Digging Itself into a Deeper Hole - 19th Sept 16
Yellen’s Footnote 8 Would Put Interest Rates on Autopilot - 19th Sept 16
Central Bank Digital Currencies: A Revolution in Banking? - 19th Sept 16
UK Government Surrenders to China / France to Build Nuclear Fukushima Plant At Hinkley Point C - 19th Sept 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The Power of the Wave Principle

Stock Market Rally Should Boost Discounted Rare Earth and Uranium Miners

Commodities / Metals & Mining Feb 01, 2013 - 12:55 PM GMT

By: Jeb_Handwerger

Commodities

I notice with interest that the popular media is ignoring the World Trade Organization case against China for restricting exports of critical materials (REMX). This reduction of supply of the critical metals has a significant impact on the global economy.

These critical metals are not only crucial for your iPads and smartphones, but for our top secret, most advanced weaponry. Looking for substitutes for rare earths has proven to be a poor return on investment. For 50 years, they have been trying to find alternatives, only to find out that the chemical characteristics of rare earths are inimitable.


I have been a major proponent of advancing domestic strategic mines in the U.S. and Canada. Recently, the U.S. Department of Defense partnered with one of our rare earth recommendations to advance studies.

This move may show investors that the our national security is dependent on domestic critical rare earth production. I would not be surprised to see Canada make a similar move to support rare earth mining and development.

Global Production of Rare Earth Oxides 1950-2000

Recently during the quiet holiday season, China (FXI) announced that they were tightening exports again on critical materials. Rare earth export quotas for next year will drop again. China claims that they are cutting back because of the weak global economy.

Nevertheless, stealthily China continues to announce infrastructure plans within the country, and has been stockpiling these critical materials for their own domestic demand. For months, we have been predicting a rebound in China's economy as iron ore prices began rising.

Now we read headlines that China's exports are very strong, even with a rising yuan (CYB). Risk assets such as the rare earths miners and uranium miners (URA) should rally on this news. More smart money from the investment community is realizing that China is far from a hard landing. In fact, they may be in the midst of a powerful recovery.

Periodic Table of the Elements

Exports have jumped to a seven-month highs despite the debt issues in Europe and the United States. This rebound in China may be a spark for the undervalued junior miners (GDXJ), which have been in a downtrend for close to two years as economists predicted a Chinese hard landing.

Many investors have been concerned about the recent Fed minutes, which indicated some sort of exit plan from quantitative easing. These accommodative actions to expand the Fed's balance sheet to record levels have boosted bonds (TLT), the housing (XHB) and the financial markets (XLF) with easy money.

We may be witnessing capital flowing to growing economies such as China. All these actions over the past few years by Central Banks could be starting an inflationary cycle, which could boost the undervalued commodities such as uranium and industrial/strategic metals.

Rare Earth Uses for Auto Industry

China's equity markets are up around 20% in the past six months, far outpacing equity markets in Europe and the United States. Many do not realize yet that not only is China the world's biggest supplier, but their own economy has grown to a point where they may become the largest consumer of these materials as major industries continue to move their factories to China.

China continues to control the rare earth industry despite attempts from companies like Molycorp (MCP) and Lynas (LYSCF.PK) to begin production. Both companies have been plagued by delays and obstacles. Mining and refining rare earths is not an easy ballgame, as it requires advanced metallurgy and favorable geopolitics.

For decades, the world has been relying on cheap rare earths from China. Nevertheless, this will change rapidly over the next few years. The Chinese are especially short on the critical rare earths needed for permanent magnets, wind turbines, guided missiles and lighting, as they are building their own facilities to manufacture these finished products.

Molycorp and Lynas should be able to supply a large amount of light rare earths after they work out their issues. However, Lynas is still dealing with protestors in Malaysia, and Molycorp is dealing with delays and rising costs to start production. The disappointing performance in these two equities has hurt the entire sector.

In 2011 and 2012, we experienced a decrease in the price of the entire industrial metal sector as QE2 expired and the U.S. and European debt crisis intensified. However, we may be at a turning point for the undervalued rare earth and uranium miners as China leads a rebound.

Large amounts of quantitative easing in the U.S. were announced in the second half of 2012. The new Japanese government is also devaluing the yen to boost the Nikkei, while restarting nuclear plants. China is rebounding quickly, announcing infrastructure projects and starting construction on nuclear reactors. China is leading the world with building new reactors.

New Nuclear Reactors - Top 8 Countries

China's decreasing rare earth exports, combined with declining production and rapidly depleting heavy rare earth resources, could cause an even greater supply shortfall in 2013. China is consolidating the rare earth industry and cutting down on critical metal smuggling. This will help the Chinese have greater control of their own domestic production.

I will closely follow in my free newsletter both the critical heavy rare earth space and the uranium sector as Asia rebounds, as these metals are crucial for China's domestic needs. These rare metals are vital for our latest high tech devices, and there are only a few viable companies that can get into production in a timely manner.

In the rare earth mining sector, geopolitical support and infrastructure is crucial. In the uranium space, rising geopolitical tensions in Africa and the Middle East with Al Qaeda could cause increased interest in junior uranium developers in the Western Hemisphere.

Two ways of investing in these sectors is through the Rare Earth ETF (REMX) and the Uranium Miners ETF (URA). Both of these metals are critical for China's clean energy initiatives and Middle Eastern energy independence. The ETFs were poor performers in 2012 as fears of a slowdown in China increased. Now, they may represent bottoming situations, which I will be following closely for my readers.

Now, they may represent bottoming situations, which I will be following closely for my readers.

Subscribe to my free newsletter to get up to the minute updates on rare earths, uranium, gold and silver.

By Jeb Handwerger

Disclosure: I am long GLD, SLV. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

http://goldstocktrades.com

© 2013 Copyright Jeb Handwerger - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Jeb Handwerger Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife