Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Will Gold Price Breakout? 3 Things to Watch… - Jordan_Roy_Byrne
2.China Invades Saudi Oil Realm: PetroDollar Kill - Jim_Willie_CB
3.Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast, Paypal FUD Fake Cryptocurrency Warning - Nadeem_Walayat
4.The Stock Market Trend is Your Friend ’til the Very End - Rambus_Chartology
5.This Isn’t Your Grandfather’s (1960s) Inflation Scare - F_F_Wiley
6.GDX Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - Zeal_LLC
7.US Housing Real Estate Market and Banking Pressures Are Building - Chris_Vermeulen
8.Return of Stock Market Volatility Amidst Political Chaos and Uncertain Economy - Buildadv
9.Can Bitcoin Price Rally Continue After Paypal Fake FUD Attack? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Warning Economic Implosion on the Horizon - Chris_Vermeulen
Last 7 days
What’s Bitcoin Really Worth? - 20th Apr 18
Stock Market May "Let Go" - 20th Apr 18
Overwhelming Evidence Against Near Stock Market Grand Supercycle Top - 20th Apr 18
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi's Want $100 for ARAMCO Stock IPO - 20th Apr 18
The Incredible Silver Trade – What You Need to Know - 20th Apr 18
Is War "Hell" for the Stock Market? - 19th Apr 18
Palladium Bullion Surges 17% In 9 Days On Russian Supply Concerns - 19th Apr 18
Breadth Study Suggests that Stock Market Bottom is Already In - 19th Apr 18
Allegory Regarding Investment Decisions Made On Basis Of Government’s Income Statement, Balance Sheet - 19th Apr 18
Gold – A Unique Repeat of the 2007 and How to Profit - 19th Apr 18
Abbeydale Park Rise Cherry Tree's in Blossom - Sheffield Street Tree Protests - 19th Apr 18
The Stock Market “Turn of the Month Effect” Exists in 11 of 11 Countries - 18th Apr 18
Winter is Coming - Coming Storms Will Bring Out the Best and Worst in Humanity - 18th Apr 18
What Does it Take to Create Living Wage Jobs? - 18th Apr 18
Gold and Silver Buy Signals - 18th Apr 18
WINTER IS COMING - The Ongoing Fourth Turning Crisis Part2 - 18th Apr 18
A Stock Market Rally on Low Volume is NOT Bearish - 17th Apr 18
Three Gold Charts, One Big Gold Stocks Opportunity - 17th Apr 18
Crude Oil Price As Bullish as it Seems? - 17th Apr 18
A Good Time to Buy Facebook? - 17th Apr 18
THE Financial Crisis Acronym of 2008 is Sounding Another Alarm - 16th Apr 18
Bombs, Missiles and War – What to Expect Next from the Stock Market - 16th Apr 18
Global Debt Bubble Hits New All Time High – One Quadrillion Reasons To Buy Gold - 16th Apr 18
Will Bitcoin Ever Recover? - 16th Apr 18
Stock Market Futures Bounce, But Stopped at Trendline - 16th Apr 18
How To Profit As Oil Prices Explode - 16th Apr 18
Junior Mining Stocks are Close to Breaking Downtrend - 16th Apr 18
Look Inside a Caravan at UK Holiday Park for Summer 2018 - Hoseasons Cayton Bay Sea Side - 16th Apr 18
Stock Market More Weakness? How Much? - 15th Apr 18
Time for the Gold Bulls to Show their Mettle - 15th Apr 18
Trading Markets Amid Sound of Wars - 15th Apr 18
Sugar Commodity Buying Levels Analysis - 14th Apr 18
The Oil Trade May Be Coming Alive - 14th Apr 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Lessons

Is This the Death Knell for the Stocks Bull Market?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Feb 11, 2013 - 09:51 AM GMT

By: Investment_U

Stock-Markets

Alexander Green writes: Well, it had to happen eventually. The average punter is finally returning to the stock market. (Or, as the little girl said in Poltergeist, “They’re baaa-aack.”)

We have more than just anecdotal evidence. TD Ameritrade, the Omaha-based online broker, registered an average 370,000 trades per day in January, up from 30,000 trades a day in December. And, according to data from TrimTabs Investment Research, investors funneled $55 billion into U.S. equity funds in January, the most ever for any month on record.


I have spoken to several brokers and money managers who also confirm that long-dormant clients are finally investing in stocks again. “They sense that the fiscal cliff was overhyped,” one broker told me. “The euro zone is not coming apart. And they are sick and tired of earning nothing on their income investments.”

Of course, there’s another big reason average investors are finally warming up to stocks again…

They’ve been missing the boat.

Signaling a Top?
Last week the Dow closed above 14,000 for the first time since the financial crisis hobbled the global economy. Small investors – having missed out on the last 7,500 points – don’t want to miss any more.

Some analysts say the return of the small investor is a signal that the bull market, already nearly four years old, may soon give up the ghost. They point to the Odd Lot Indicator.

An odd lot is an order for stock of less than 100 shares, or a round lot. Historically, small investors could not afford to buy a round lot so when odd lot orders started coming through, the pros recognized that smaller investors were buying into the market. That was viewed as the market top. Or as JFK’s father Joe Kennedy put it, when the shoeshine boy starts giving you stock tips it’s “time to get out.”

There is some evidence to back this view. For instance, a 25-year study published a few years ago in the Journal of Financial Economics found that if you had simply invested in the S&P 500 when equity fund flows were negative (redemptions exceeded new investments) and into 90-day Treasury bills when fund flows were positive (new investments exceeded redemptions) you would have substantially outperformed the market while spending nearly half the time in riskless T-bills.

Mutual fund flows just turned heavily toward equities. Does that mean the end is near?

Not Likely…
History shows that small investors are only a good indicator at market extremes. They tend to be wildly optimistic at market tops and wholly pessimistic at market bottoms. For two perfect examples, think about how they felt about real estate as an investment at the top of the housing bubble and stocks as an investment at the bottom of the financial crisis. Their instincts – based on greed and fear – were dead wrong.

The Odd Lot Indicator only works as a sell signal when valuations are high and sentiment is euphoric. Neither is the case today. The market sells for less than its average P/E ratio of 16. And while investors may be feeling a bit more positive lately, it’s hard to sense anything like euphoria out there.

When we do, it will indeed be time to trim back stock positions. But that is still a ways in the future. In the meantime, we should welcome new stock market investors – and their influx of cash that is pushing our shares higher.

Alex

Source : http://www.investmentu.com/2013/February/death-knell-for-the-bull-market.html

by Alexander Green , Oxford Club Investment Director Chairman, Investment

http://www.investmentu.com

Copyright © 1999 - 2013 by The Oxford Club, L.L.C All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Investment U, Attn: Member Services , 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore, MD 21201 Email: CustomerService@InvestmentU.com

Disclaimer: Investment U Disclaimer: Nothing published by Investment U should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Investment U should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Investment U Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules