Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend - 29th Nov 24
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past - 29th Nov 24
Gold After Trump Wins - 29th Nov 24
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends - 27th Nov 24
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend - 27th Nov 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast to June 2025 - 24th Nov 24
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Silver Price Backwardation, Corrections and Perception Shifts

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Feb 22, 2013 - 06:03 PM GMT

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Commodities

The price of silver futures contracts have been regularly flirting with a state of backwardation ever since the 2008 Financial Crisis, which is a sign of a growing physical silver shortage.

A state of backwardation occurs when the front month silver futures contract commands a price premium to the subsequent months’ contracts.


On one hand, this situation could actually provide larger traders who own the physical silver with an opportunity to simultaneously sell it and purchase futures contracts to recover their metal holdings for a net profit.

Paper and Physical Silver Price Backwardation

A backwardation also tends to indicate that industrial and personal silver consumers need the metal more now, rather than later.

When a backwardation in the silver market is driven by perception on The Street, this phenomenon would actually reveal the true fate of larger traders with insufficient physical silver supplies available to profit from this apparently easy money.

Nevertheless, the silver futures market ceased being a physical market years ago when the overall short position became dominated by just a few bullion banks. Whether these players control 25% or 50% of the net shorts, this concentration influences the paper price.

People Will Pay Whatever it Takes for Silver

The price of silver will ultimately be driven by premiums, which are ultimately determined by demand at the retail level.  As confidence is lost in the futures market and shortages develop at physical metal dealers and scrap flows drop because they have already been panned out, an industrial panic will compete for the large (1000 ounce) silver bar supply.

Following the notable silver rally in 1980, the market saw a divergence in demand flow. One consisted of a reduction in demand for increasingly expensive silverware and silver jewelry, which fell out of favor as wealth declined and cultural preferences shifted.

In contrast, silver production and demand for use in electronics and other industry took off, although governments sold their stockpiles of silver cheap, indirectly debasing their paper currencies along the way.

Silver Price Corrections and Perception Shifts

The recent downward corrections in the price of silver make it look like the market is being pushed off a cliff by the concentrated shorts in order to influence the perception spectrum of retail investors.

Nevertheless, these downward moves do not seem to consist of reality-based corrections, because the price of silver was never too high. The price was just too high for the shorts and so it needed to be muscled lower.

If their large short positions become too deeply underwater, the threat of panic short-covering tends to raise its ugly head. Although the deep-pocketed bullion banks seem unlikely to cover their shorts quickly, a speculative buying panic will move money into each and every physical or derivative form of silver that exists.

Margin raising, coordinated dumping and halting futures trading would not stop the rally in silver once the market’s perception of the metal shifts along the spectrum from fear, disinterest and disdain towards curiosity, interest, action and — finally — greed.

For more articles like this, and to stay updated on the most important economic, financial, political and market events related to silver and precious metals, visit www.silver-coin-investor.com

By Dr. Jeff Lewis

    Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, in addition to running a busy medical practice, is the editor of Silver-Coin-Investor.com and Hard-Money-Newsletter-Review.com

    Copyright © 2013 Dr. Jeff Lewis- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Dr. Jeff Lewis Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in