Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Stock Market Crash and Recession Indicator Warning: Extreme Danger Ahead - Harry_Dent
2. Is This How World War III Begins, In Almost Complete Silence? - Jeff_Berwick
3.Trump Wins 2nd Presidential Debate, Betfair Betting Markets Odds Bounce - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Why Krugman, Roubini, Rogoff And Buffett Dislike Gold - GoldCore
5.End of SPX Stock Market Correction Nears - Tony_Caldaro
6.Get Ready for the Future - Exponential Machine Intelligence Mega-trend towards Singularity - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Housing Market Bubble II – It’s Happening Again! - Andy_Sutton
8.FTSE BrExit Stock Market Panic Crash Resolves towards New All Time Highs - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Can Trump Still Win Despite Opinion Polls, Bookmakers and Pundits all Saying Hillary has Won? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Gold’s, Miners’ Stops Run - Zeal_LLC
Last 7 days
A Lot of Reasons to Stay Stock Market Short - 28th Oct 16
Gold Stocks Winter Rally - 28th Oct 16
$50 Trillion in Cash Is Sitting on the Sidelines Today - 28th Oct 16
Can Donald Trump, The Terminator Still Win the Election Despite, Pollsters, Bookies, Media and Pundits? - 28th Oct 16
How Big Is Your Gold and Silver Picture? - 28th Oct 16
Gold and Silver Connecting the Dots - 28th Oct 16
The Next Big Shoe to Drop – Student Loans - 27th Oct 16
The Twists and Turns of the Greenback - 27th Oct 16
Obamacare Is Draining Our Financial Reserves - 27th Oct 16
Brexit II: Is Donald Trump a False Flag? - 27th Oct 16
“Chindia” Buying Gold on Dips, 20% Corrections Are “Non Events” - 27th Oct 16
4 Incredible Market Forecasts You Have to See to Believe - 26th Oct 16
Silver Prices in an Exponential Financial System - 26th Oct 16
Rigged Election: Hillary and Trump Caught Partying Like BFF’s With Kissinger at Jesuit Gala - 26th Oct 16
The Current Message of Yield Curves: Inflation or Deflation? - 25th Oct 16
Broken Central Banks: 4 Quick Pix - 25th Oct 16
Government Stimulus is an Oxymoron, Debt to GDP - 25th Oct 16
Where Will Crude Oil Price Head Next? - 25th Oct 16
Diamonds in the Gold and Silver Mining Stocks - 25th Oct 16
Trump’s Gettysburg Address against the New World - 25th Oct 16
This Past Week in Gold - 24th Oct 16
Can Gold Continue To Rise, Since The Usd Is Moving Higher Too? - 24th Oct 16
Why are Americans Avoiding the Stock Markets; Fear or Lack of Money? - 24th Oct 16
The US Is NOT a Low-Tax Jurisdiction - 24th Oct 16
Stocks, Crude Oil and EURUSD Trend Forecasts - 24th Oct 16
Stock Market Another Month to Go? - 24th Oct 16
Large Sell-off in Stock Market Looming - 24th Oct 16
Ungovernability - 24th Oct 16
Stock Market Boredom Before The Storm - 24th Oct 16
Establishment Mainstream Media Elite Buys US Election for Hillary Clinton, Time Running Out for Trump - 23rd Oct 16
Inflation About To Explode Higher - 22nd Oct 16
Still waiting for SPX uptrend to kick off - 22nd Oct 16
Will a Rising US Dollar Crush Gold’s Fledgling Bull? - 22nd Oct 16
Why The Global Economy Will Disintegrate Rapidly Back to Olduvai Gorge - 22nd Oct 16
GLD Bleeds Out; Weekly Gold Update - 22nd Oct 16
Stock Market Investment Success Through the “Investment Rule of 72” - 21st Oct 16
The Final Bottom in Gold - WHEN - 21st Oct 16
Gold Green Lights Upleg - 21st Oct 16
Demand for US Mints Silver Eagles has ‘Returned with a Vengeance’ - 21st Oct 16
Central Bankers Can't Stop The Death Blow Of The Post US Election Recession - 21st Oct 16
The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid: Golden Opportunity for Frontier Asia - 21st Oct 16
Have You Taken These 4 Simple Steps to Improve Your Trading? - 21st Oct 16
The Stock Market is an Accident Waiting to Happen - 20th Oct 16
It's Rally Time for Gold and Silver Equities - 20th Oct 16
Cashless Society – Risks Posed By The War On Cash - 20th Oct 16
China's insane Housing Market Will Tumble and Crash in 2017 - 20th Oct 16
Donald Trump Bounces Going into 3rd and Final US Presidential Election Debate - 20th Oct 16
Attention Please: Phase Two of the Gold and Silver Train Now leaving the Station. All Aboard? - 19th Oct 16
How to Successfully Trade a Stock Market Crash - Black Monday October 19th 1987 - 19th Oct 16
Tesla, Apple and Uber Push Lithium Prices Even Higher - 18th Oct 16
Silver, Debt, and Deficits – From an Election Year Perspective - 18th Oct 16
UK Property Market: Slow Growth Does Not Equate To Decline - 18th Oct 16
Trump Election Victory is in Your Power - 18th Oct 16
Stock Market More to Come! - 18th Oct 16
This Past Week in Gold and Silver - 17th Oct 16
A Falling Stock Market Cannot Be Allowed - Financial Repression Is Now “In-Play”! - 17th Oct 16
Commodities, Forex and Stock Market Trend Forecasts - 17th Oct 16
Stock Market Crash..or No Crash? - 17th Oct 16
A perspective on risk rally – Risks abound but Stock Market is Confident - 17th Oct 16
Bank of England Blames Brexit for Sterling Drop Inflation, Masks QE Money Printing Cause - 17th Oct 16
From Piety to Pride to Pity, America's Racial Divide - 17th Oct 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The Power of the Wave Principle

The Fed Has Set Us Up For the Stock Market Crash of 2013

Stock-Markets / Financial Crash Feb 25, 2013 - 06:51 PM GMT

By: Graham_Summers


Having pumped the system with liquidity non-stop since the Crash of 2008, the Fed now realizes it’s in big trouble and needs to manage down expectations of further stimulus.

As we noted earlier this year, the Fed, while attempting to appear committed to endless money printing via its QE 3 and QE 4 programs, was in fact decidedly split on whether to commit to more as well as the risks inherent to additional QE. Indeed, the Fed FOMC minutes indicate that some Fed members were concerned about whether QE even worked as a monetary policy.

Below are the notes from the Fed’s December 2012 FOMC minutes (the meeting during which the Fed announced QE 4). I’ve added highlights to emphasize the shift in tone.

With regard to the possible costs and risks of purchases, a number of participants expressed the concern that additional purchases could complicate the Committee’s efforts to eventually withdraw monetary policy accommodation, for example, by potentially causing inflation expectations to rise or by impairing the future implementation of monetary policy.

Participants also discussed the implications of continued asset purchases for the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Depending on the path for the balance sheet and interest rates, the Federal Reserve’s net income and its remittances to the Treasury could be significantly affected during the period of policy normalization.

 Participants noted that the Committee would need to continue to assess whether large purchases were having adverse effects on market functioning and financial stability. They expressed a range of views on the appropriate pace of purchases, both now and as the outlook evolved. It was agreed that both the efficacy and the costs would need to be carefully monitored and taken into account in determining the size, pace, and composition of asset purchases.

There are three key implications here:

1)   The Fed acknowledged that QE causes inflation expectations to rise (red text)

2)   The Fed was divided on the efficacy of QE (green text)

3)   The Fed was not committed to employing QE forever despite its public declarations to that effect (blue text)

This shift in tone went largely unnoticed by the media. However, the implications are very serious. By way of explanation, let’s quickly review the Fed’s primary moves in the post-Crisis era.

In 2008 the Fed had its back against the wall in terms of saving the system. Since that time every new Fed intervention (verbal or monetary) has been aimed at propping up the Too Big To Fail Banks and pushing the stock market higher.

The first wave of this came via QE 1 and QE 2 in which the Fed collectively monetized nearly $2 trillion in assets. However, once QE 2 ended in 2011, we noted the Fed began to realize that it could get the “positive” effects of additional stimulus (higher asset prices) without actually having to engage in more stimulus, simply by issuing verbal interventions at critical moments.

Thus, between QE 2’s end (June 2011) and the start of QE 3 (September 2012), the Fed became increasingly reliant on verbal intervention as opposed to actual money printing.

During this period, any time the markets began to dip, a Fed official, usually an uber-Dove such as NY Fed President Bill Dudley or Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, would indicate that the Fed was ready to act aggressively if need be and VOOM the markets would take off again.

This changed in May 2012, when the entire financial system began to implode courtesy of Spain (see our issue The “C” Word for an explanation of this). At that time the Fed switched back into aggressive monetary policy mode, first promising to provide more QE before launching QE 3 in September 2012 and then QE 4 in December 2012.

Unlike previous QE programs, which had definitive timelines, QE 3 and QE 4 were open-ended, meaning that they can continue forever. This was the Great Global Rig we referred to earlier this year. And while it did push the stock market higher, it did next to nothing for the US economy.

Which brings us to today. The US economy is contracting sharply again (without the massaged data inflation, real GDP growth would have been -1% last quarter) right as stocks close in on new all-time highs (the S&P 500 and Dow) or have already broken to new highs (the Russell 2000).

This is happening at a time when earnings are falling (despite companies booking profits), the economy is slowing, and stocks are closing in on all-time highs.

In plain terms, the stock market has become totally detached from economic realities. There is a term for when asset prices become detached from fundamentals, it’s called “A BUBBLE.”

THIS is the reason the Fed is beginning to shift its tone. It realizes it has blown another bubble and that we’re likely headed for another Crash. And this time around the Fed will be totally out of ammo to stop it. Unlike 2008 which was just a warm-up, this will be the REAL CRISIS featuring full-scale systemic failure.

So if you have not already taken steps to prepare for systemic failure, you NEED to do so NOW. We’re literally at most a few months, and very likely just a few weeks from the economy taking a massive downturn, potentially taking down the financial system with them. Think I’m joking? The Fed is pumping hundreds of BILLIONS of dollars into financial system right now trying to stop this from happening.

I’ve already alerted Private Wealth Advisory  subscribers to 6 trades that will all produce HUGE profits as this mess collapses.

We’ve also taken steps to prepare our loved ones and personal finances for systemic risk with my Protect Your Family, Protect  Your Savings,  and Protect Your Portfolio Special Reports.

With a total of 20 pages, these reports outline:

1) how to prepare for bank holidays 2) which banks to avoid 3) how much bullion to own 4) how much cash is needed to get through systemic crises 5) how much food to stockpile, what kind to get, and where to get it

And more…

If you’re an individual investor (not a day trader) looking for the means of profiting from all of this… particularly the US going over the fiscal cliff… then you NEED to check out  my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter.

Click Here Now!!!

Graham Sumers

Chief Market Strategist

Good Investing!

PS. If you’re getting worried about the future of the stock market and have yet to take steps to prepare for the Second Round of the Financial Crisis… I highly suggest you download my FREE Special Report specifying exactly how to prepare for what’s to come.

I call it The Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival Kit. And its 17 pages contain a wealth of information about portfolio protection, which investments to own and how to take out Catastrophe Insurance on the stock market (this “insurance” paid out triple digit gains in the Autumn of 2008).

Again, this is all 100% FREE. To pick up your copy today, got to and click on FREE REPORTS.

Graham also writes Private Wealth Advisory, a monthly investment advisory focusing on the most lucrative investment opportunities the financial markets have to offer. Graham understands the big picture from both a macro-economic and capital in/outflow perspective. He translates his understanding into finding trends and undervalued investment opportunities months before the markets catch on: the Private Wealth Advisory portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 three of the last five years, including a 7% return in 2008 vs. a 37% loss for the S&P 500.

Previously, Graham worked as a Senior Financial Analyst covering global markets for several investment firms in the Mid-Atlantic region. He’s lived and performed research in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the United States.

© 2013 Copyright Graham Summers - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Graham Summers Archive

© 2005-2016 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife