Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Stocks Bear Market Apocalypse Imminent Crash Gets Nuked Again - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold And Silver – A Reality Check - Michael_Noonan
3.The Killer Ape, Human Evolution, Artificial Intelligence and Extinction End Game - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Stock Market S&P 500 Volatility-Based Price Probability Range - Richard_Shaw
5.A Stocks Bear Market Is Now More Likely Than Not - Richard_Shaw
6.Money Supply and the Fed’s Serious Inflation Risks - Zeal_LLC
7.More Selling for Stock Market, Gold? - Brad_Gudgeon
8.Gold, Silver Precious Metals: a Critical Week Ahead - Rambus_Chartology
9.Gold Price Change in Character - Gary_Savage
10.Advice for Biotech Investors: 'Hold Your Powder' 'til Winter - TLSReport
Last 5 days
Putin’s “Endgame” in Syria - 10th Oct 15
Gold And Silver Trapped In A Low-End Trading Range - 10th Oct 15
Free Traders Educational Week - 10th Oct 15
Stock Market Rally May be Broken - 9th Oct 15
Gold Stocks Major Breakout - 9th Oct 15
Contrarian Investing - Being the 10th Man - 9th Oct 15
U.S. Can Expect Recession in 1-3 Years - 9th Oct 15
The Greater Economic Depression Deep State - 9th Oct 15
Financial Markets Calm Before the Storm? - 9th Oct 15
Stock Market History Calling, Says Performance will be Crappy for Another ~10 years! - 9th Oct 15
Why This Feels Like an Economic Depression for Most People - 9th Oct 15
Dr Copper Back from the Dead - Time to Buy or Blink - 8th Oct 15
Glencore Rout Blamed on Short Sellers Playing With CDS - 8th Oct 15
The Real Reason for the Refugee Crisis You Won’t Hear About in the Media - 8th Oct 15
US Stocks: The [Trend]Line Between Bull and Bear Market - 8th Oct 15
Bundesbank “Reassures” Re. Gold Bullion Reserves as Deutsche Bank Shocks With €6 Billion Loss Warning - 8th Oct 15
How Our Aversion To Change Leads Us Into Danger - 8th Oct 15
Moving Stem Cell Research Forward: Bernie Siegel of the Genetics Policy Institute - 8th Oct 15
Stock Market VERY IMPORTANT Turn Date - 7th Oct 15
The 5th Convergence…An Economic & Financial Superstorm That Will Devastate America - 7th Oct 15
Summers Grades Janet Yellen's Fed Performance 'Incomplete' - 7th Oct 15
Gold Versus Central Banks Paper Ponzi - 7th Oct 15
QE3 is Over Get Ready for QE4 - 7th Oct 15
How to Profit from Government Mandates in Biofuels - 7th Oct 15
A Key Oil Price Trend That Everyone Is Missing - 6th Oct 15
Stock Market Turn Appears to Have Been Made - 6th Oct 15
Designing a Dividend Growth Portfolio for a Specific Retirement Yield Objective - 6th Oct 15
Peter Schiff Predicts Gold Price Breakout - Video - 6th Oct 15
Theresa May Declares War on Immigration - Conference Speech Full Transcript - 6th Oct 15
Is Russia Plotting To Bring Down OPEC? - 6th Oct 15
Target Date Funds As Aid In Retirement Investment Portfolio Design - 6th Oct 15
Stocks Bear Market Apocalypse Imminent Crash Gets Nuked Again - 6th Oct 15
Redesigning Internet and Facebook to Explore Their Full Potentialities... - 5th Oct 15
Nightshades Curb Your Enthusiasm - 5th Oct 15
U.S. Recession Watch, High-Yield – Rising Defaults - 5th Oct 15
The Social Challenge to Find Humanity in Capitalism - 5th Oct 15
Fed Interest Rate Hike: "I don't care. It doesn't really make much of a difference" - 5th Oct 15
Gold Rose 2.2%, Silver Surged 5.4% After Poor Jobs Number On Friday - 5th Oct 15
Gold, Silver Precious Metals: a Critical Week Ahead - 5th Oct 15
Stock Market Correction Still in Force - 5th Oct 15
Gold Price Change in Character - 5th Oct 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Is a Bubble Developing in U.S. Housing Market?

Housing-Market / US Housing Mar 01, 2013 - 07:11 AM GMT

By: InvestmentContrarian


George Leong writes: Recently in these pages, I talked about how the government, the Treasury, and the Federal Reserve were creating an artificial economy that was supported by cheap money and low interest rates.

One of the major benefactors of this cheap money was the housing sector, which is now sizzling hot. The median price of an existing home in the U.S. was $173,600 in January, up 12.3% from an average of $154,600 a year earlier. (Source: United States Census Bureau web site, last accessed February 27, 2013.)

Driving the renewed buying in the housing sector has been the environment of near-zero interest rates. The Federal Reserve has been injecting additional liquidity into the economy and mortgage market via its $85.0 billion in monthly bond purchases. The problem is that the low interest rates and easy money have driven the excess buying of homes and investment properties, as speculators jump into the housing sector, looking for deals and driving up home prices.

My concern is that the buying may be creating another potential bubble in the housing sector. You may not believe it, but I view this as a possibility. Housing starts in January showed some stalling. And now, with the $1.2-trillion “sequestration” budgetary cuts set to take effect tomorrow, the automatic $85.0 billion in annual budget cuts could have a widespread impact on the country and the economy, including program cuts, job losses, and economic chaos. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has warned that the U.S. economy could contract by 1.3% in the first half of this year if the sequester is allowed to take hold.

So let’s assume the sequestration does occur. With the associated likelihood of slowing in the economy, the Fed may have little choice but to maintain its low interest rate policy. The aftermath could be more buying in the housing market, but given the expected impact on jobs and the economy, we could be set for softness in the housing sector.

Home prices, representing another key piece of the housing sector, are edging higher; the S&P/Case–Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, comprising the 20 largest U.S. metropolitan cites, increased a better-than-expected 6.8% in December, representing the eleventh straight up month.

While the higher prices suggest a healthier housing sector, I’m concerned with the fact that the rebound has largely been driven by low interest rates. What will happen to homeowners and speculators when interest rates begin to ratchet higher?

Here, you will have homeowners and investors, faced with higher payments, who may be forced to liquidate. The problem is that if many do this, it would create a bubble in the housing sector.

The chart of the SPDR S&P Homebuilders (NYSEArca/XHB) index below shows the upward trend in the housing market from the October 2011 bottom to its high just prior to the relapse. Technical indicators in the chart point to more potential downward moves to come.

Chart courtesy of

While I’m not saying a housing sector bubble is inevitable, I am saying that there is a chance it could happen. As such, you want to be prepared for this possibility.

An investment strategy is to buy exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in housing that make money when the sector weakens. A couple of examples of ETFs you might consider are ProShares Short Real Estate (NYSEArca/REK) and Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shrs (NYSEArca/DRV).


By George Leong, BA, B. Comm.

Investment Contrarians is our daily financial e-letter dedicated to helping investors make money by going against the “herd mentality.”

George Leong, B. Comm. is a Senior Editor at Lombardi Financial, and has been involved in analyzing the stock markets for two decades where he employs both fundamental and technical analysis. His overall market timing and trading knowledge is extensive in the areas of small-cap research and option trading. George is the editor of several of Lombardi’s popular financial newsletters, including The China Letter, Special Situations, and Obscene Profits, among others. He has written technical and fundamental columns for numerous stock market news web sites, and he is the author of Quick Wealth Options Strategy and Mastering 7 Proven Options Strategies. Prior to starting with Lombardi Financial, George was employed as a financial analyst with Globe Information Services. See George Leong Article Archives

Copyright © 2013 Investment Contrarians- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Investment Contrarians Archive

© 2005-2015 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History