Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Trying to Buy Coinbase Stock on IPO Day - Institutional Investors Freeze out Retail Investors - 15th Apr 21
Stocks or Gold – Which Is in the Catbird Seat? - 15th Apr 21
Time For A Stock Market Melt-Up - 15th Apr 21
Stocks Bull Market Progression Now Shows Base Metal Strength - 15th Apr 21
AI Tech Stocks Buy Ratings, Levels and Valuations - 14th Apr 21
Easy 10% to 15% Overclock for 5600x, 5900x, 5950x Using AMD Ryzen Master Precision Boost Overdrive - 14th Apr 21
The Current Cannabis Sector Rally Is Pointing To Another Breakout - 14th Apr 21
U.S. Dollar Junk Bond Market The Easiest Money in History - 14th Apr 21
The SPY Is Nearing Resistance @ $410… What Is Next? - 14th Apr 21
The Curious Stock Market Staircase Rally - 14th Apr 21
Stocks are Heating Up - 14th Apr 21
Two Methods in Calculating For R&D Tax Credits - 14th Apr 21
Stock Market Minor Correction Due - 13th Apr 21
How to Feed Budgies Cucumbers - Best Vegetables Feeding for the First Time, Parakeet Care UK - 13th Apr 21
Biggest Inflation Threat in 40 Years Looms over Markets - 13th Apr 21
How to Get Rich with the Pareto Distribution - Tesco Example - 13th Apr 21
Litecoin and Bitcoin-Which Is Better? - 13th Apr 21
The Major Advantages Of Getting Your PhD Online - 12th Apr 21
Covid-19 Pandemic Current State for UK, US, Europe, Brazil Vaccinations vs Lockdown's Third Wave - 12th Apr 21
Why These Stock Market Indicators Should Grab Your Full Attention - 12th Apr 21
Rising Debt Means a Weaker US Dollar - 12th Apr 21
Another Gold Stocks Upleg - 12th Apr 21
AMD The ZEN Tech Stock - 12th Apr 21
Overclockers UK Build Quality - Why Glue Fan to CPU Heat sink Instead of Using Supplied Clips? - 12th Apr 21 -
What are the Key Capabilities You Should Look for in Fleet Management Software? - 12th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Gold? - 12th Apr 21
UK Covd-19 FREE Lateral Flow Self Testing Kits How Use for the First Time at Home - 10th Apr 21
NVIDIA Stock ARMED and Dangeorus! - 10th Apr 21
The History of Bitcoin Hard Forks - 10th Apr 21
Gold Mining Stocks: A House Built on Shaky Ground - 9th Apr 21
Stock Market On the Verge of a Pullback - 9th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Unlimited? - 9th Apr 21
Most Money Managers Gamble With Your Money - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 Evolving Trends For Mobile Casinos - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Investing 2021 Analysis - 8th Apr 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 - Crash or Continuing Bull Run? - 8th Apr 21
Don’t Be Fooled by the Stock Market Rally - 8th Apr 21
Gold and Latin: Twin Pillars of Western Rejuvenation - 8th Apr 21
Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns – Which ETFs Will Benefit? Part II - 8th Apr 21
You're invited: Spot the Next BIG Move in Oil, Gas, Energy ETFs - 8th Apr 21
Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr US Dollar is Back - 8th Apr 21
Stock Market New S&P 500 Highs or Metals Rising? - 8th Apr 21
Microsoft AI Azure Cloud Computing Driving Tech Giant Profits - 7th Apr 21
Amazon Tech Stock PRIMEDAY SALE- 7th Apr 21
The US has Metals Problem - Lithium, Graphite, Copper, Nickel Supplies - 7th Apr 21
Yes, the Fed Will Cover Biden’s $4 Trillion Deficit - 7th Apr 21
S&P 500 Fireworks and Gold Going Stronger - 7th Apr 21
Stock Market Perceived Vs. Actual Risks: The Key To Success - 7th Apr 21
Investing in Google Deep Mind AI 2021 (Alphabet) - 6th Apr 21
Which ETFs Will Benefit As A Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns - 6th Apr 21
Staying Out of the Red: Financial Tips for Kent Homeowners - 6th Apr 21
Stock Market Pushing Higher - 6th Apr 21
Inflation Fears Rise on Biden’s $3.9 TRILLION in Deficit Spending - 6th Apr 21
Editing and Rendering Videos Whilst Background Crypto Mining Bitcoins with NiceHash, Davinci Resolve - 5th Apr 21
Why the Financial Gurus Are WRONG About Gold - 5th Apr 21
Will Biden’s Infrastructure Plan Rebuild Gold? - 5th Apr 21
Stocks All Time Highs and Gold Double Bottom - 5th Apr 21
All Tech Stocks Revolve Around This Disruptor - 5th Apr 21
Silver $100 Price Ahead - 4th Apr 21
Is Astra Zeneca Vaccine Safe? Risk of Blood Clots and What Side Effects During 8 Days After Jab - 4th Apr 21
Are Premium Bonds A Good Investment in 2021 vs Savings, AI Stocks and Housing Alternatives - 4th Apr 21
Penny Stocks Hit $2 Trillion - The Real Story Behind This "Road to Riches" Scheme - 4th Apr 21
Should Stock Markets Fear Inflation or Deflation? - 4th Apr 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

My Two Favorite Gold Mining Stocks

Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013 Apr 10, 2013 - 12:14 PM GMT

By: Money_Morning

Commodities

Martin Hutchinson writes: With the world's central bankers printing money like mad, you would think investing in gold mining stocks would be a no-brainer.

Yet despite these misguided policies, the Market Vectors Gold Mines Index (NYSE: GDX) is down 40% from its peak last September. Even worse, it's off 48% from its all-time highs in 2011.


Not even last Thursday's announcement that the Bank of Japan would buy $1.4 trillion in Japanese government bonds in 2013 and 2014 helped much-even though on a relative basis Japan's "stimulus" is more than double what Ben Bernanke has in mind.

So why all of the pain?...

And better yet, which gold mining stocks have fallen so far they are screaming buys right now?

Here's the answer to both questions....

Why Gold Miners are Down Right Now
First, there's the recent decline in gold prices. At today's price gold is close to 20% below its peak in the fall of 2011. In this case, it is simple: Lower gold prices = lower mining shares.

But even that doesn't quite explain the disparity between gold miners and the precious metal itself. The fall in miners' share prices has been much more pronounced than that of gold.

And it's not just their greater leverage to the price of gold that's responsible. Even in periods when gold prices have stabilized or shown moderate strength, gold mining shares have tumbled.

So what gives? The truth is not all gold miners are alike.

In fact, a substantial chunk of this can be put down to ineptitude and shareholder-unfriendliness among the mining companies themselves. For some, there have simply been too many equity raisings at fire sale prices. Too many new projects have run way over budget and resulted in existing shareholders being diluted to hell.

Take the Mount Milligan project of Thompson Creek Metals (NYSE:TC), for instance.

Because the project ran about 100% over the budgeted cost, the company was compelled to sell more than 50% of its projected output to "gold streaming" companies for a low price. It was then forced to carry out repeated dilutive equity issues which hammered the price.

Now even though Mount Milligan appears to be on track to open in September, TC shares are still standing at one quarter of their level two years ago.

Another problem for gold mining stocks is political risk.

Pan American Silver Corp. (Nasdaq: PAAS) for example, not only has almost 20% of its current production in Argentina, its largest capital expansion project in that country has been blocked by the regional government.

Likewise, Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY) has an exciting $8 billion project located on the Argentina-Chile border. The problem is Argentina recently began blocking capital exports and has already nationalized a number of companies.

And since mining projects require a massive commitment of capital before resources start to flow, and are relatively cheap and easy to operate once the capital has been spent, committing shareholder resources to the tender mercies of Argentina's Cristina Fernandez is not something anyone should risk.

Then there's plain old cost escalation.

For example, IAMGOLD Corp. (NYSE: IAG) is a promising and growing gold miner with projects in a spread of emerging markets with only moderate risks.

Yet its mining cost rose from $643 per ounce in 2011 to $731 per ounce in 2012.

And while that may sound great given current gold prices of just under $1,600 an ounce, the industry's calculation of mining costs includes nothing for head office or corporate overhead, so the reality is those figures are badly understated. Indeed, a recent analysis of IAMGOLD's true mining cost concluded that it had risen from $1,232 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2011 to $1,530 in the last quarter of 2012.

At that level, needless to say, it's barely worth bothering to operate and there's certainly nothing there for shareholders. What's clear is that high-cost miners and those with operations in risky countries are inferior investments to the metals themselves.

The Best Gold Mining Stocks
But that doesn't necessarily mean you need to scratch gold miners altogether.

The decline in gold miner share prices has been so great that those with low costs and political stability look cheap--- even compared to the metals.

So whether you buy gold and silver miners at this stage clearly depends on what you think gold and silver prices will do. (Here's a bet they are eventually headed higher.)

On balance, though I think the recommendation depends on where your portfolio is right now.

If you're holding lots of miners, all of them beaten down by losses, then you probably shouldn't buy any more - the investment maxim of not reinforcing failure is a good one.

If you want to prune a few miners from your current portfolio take another look at their mining costs and political risks and prune the high-cost miners and high-risk environments first. But don't sell out altogether; you may well be selling close to the bottom.

But on the other hand, if you have no miners or very few, you should probably load up now. At these prices, there's practically a fire sale going on.

In fact, here are two of my favorite gold miners right now:

■Primero Mining (NYSE:PPP): Primero is a gold and silver miner with two producing mines and a third project in Mexico. The company recently benefited from a favorable ruling in Mexico's tax court, which caused its stock price to jump and indicates that Mexico is a decent place to do business. Cash costs were $636 per gold equivalent ounce in 2012, down from $640 in 2011, and are expected to decline slightly in 2013. Earnings were 54 cents/share in 2012, and the company expects to expand production in 2013. Better yet, Primero trades at around book value and on a trailing P/E of 12 times.
■Freeport McMoran Copper and Gold (NYSE:FCX) Freeport is a larger, more diversified operation that mines copper and gold worldwide with big operations in the U.S. and Indonesia. It trades on 10 times historic earnings, 6.6 times projected earnings and at 1.7 times book value. Better yet, this one pays a hefty dividend yield of 3.8%.

So while gold miners as a group are certainly well-off their highs, at these levels a few select stocks have landed in the bargain bin.

Now I don't know about you, but that's one of my favorite places to shop.

Aside from gold, a massive global shortage is creating a huge opportunity in palladium right now. You might not realize this but palladium is 15 times rarer than platinum and 30 times rarer than gold.

That's creating an opportunity of its own for a small palladium miner that's currently trading under $2.00 a share. This same company is sitting on potentially $600-$700 billion of this precious metal at today's prices. To learn more about this company click here.

Source :http://moneymorning.com/2013/04/10/my-two-favorite-gold-mining-stocks/

Money Morning/The Money Map Report

©2013 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201, Email: customerservice@moneymorning.com

Disclaimer: Nothing published by Money Morning should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investent advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication, or after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Money Morning should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Money Morning Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules