Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Canada Real Estate Bubble - Harry_Dent
2.UK House Prices ‘On Brink’ Of Massive 40% Collapse - GoldCore
3.Best Cash ISA for Soaring Inflation, Kent Reliance Illustrates the Great ISA Rip Off - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Understanding true money, Pound Sterling must make another historic low, Euro and Gold outlook! - Marc_Horn
5.5 Maps That Explain The Modern Middle East - GEORGE FRIEDMAN
6.Gold Back With A Vengeance As Bitcoin Bubble Bursts - OilPrice_Com
7.Gold Summer Doldrums - Zeal_LLC
8.Crude Oil Trade & Nasdaq QQQ Update - Plunger
9.Gold And Silver – Why No Rally? Lies, Lies, And More Lies - Michael_Noonan
10.UK Election 2017 Disaster, Fake BrExit Chaos, Forecasting Lessons for Next Time - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Saving Illinois: Getting More Bang for Its Bucks - 24th Jul 17
3 Stocks Sectors That Will Win in The Fed’s Great Balance-Sheet Unwind - 24th Jul 17
Activist Investors Are Taking Over Wall Street, Procter and Gamble Might Never Remain the Same - 24th Jul 17
Stock Market Still on Track - 24th Jul 17
Last Chance For US Dollar To Rally - 24th Jul 17
UK House Prices Momentum Crash Warns of 2017 Bear Market - Video - 22nd Jul 17
Crude Oil, Gold, ETFs & more: Pro-grade Market Forecasts - 22nd Jul 17
Warning: The Fed Is Preparing to Crash the Financial System Again - 21st Jul 17
Gold / Silver Shorts Extreme - 21st Jul 17
GBP/USD Bearish Factors - 21st Jul 17
Gold Hedges Against Currency Devaluation and Cost Of Fuel, Food, Beer and Housing - 21st Jul 17
Is It Worth Investing in Palladium? - 21st Jul 17
UK House Prices Momentum Crash Threatens Mini Bear Market 2017 - 21st Jul 17
The Fed May Show Trump No Love - 20th Jul 17
The 3 Best Asset Classes To Brace Your Portfolio For The Next Financial Crisis - 20th Jul 17
Gold Stocks and Bonds - Preparing for THE Bottom - 20th Jul 17
Millennials Can Punt On Bitcoin, Own Safe Haven Gold For Long Term - 20th Jul 17
Trump Has Found A Loophole To Rewrite Trade Agreements Without Anyone’s Permission - 20th Jul 17
Basic Materials and Commodities Analysis and Trend Forecasts - 20th Jul 17
Bitcoin PullBack Is Over (For Now): Cryptocurrencies Gain Nearly A 50% In Last 48 Hours - 19th Jul 17
AAPL's 6% June slide - When Prices Are Falling, TWO Numbers Matter Most - 19th Jul 17
Discover Why A Major American Revolution Is Brewing - 19th Jul 17
iGaming – Stock Prices - 19th Jul 17
The Socionomic Theory of Finance By Robert Prechter - Book Review - 18th Jul 17
Ethereum Versus Bitcoin – Which Cryptocurrency Will Win The War? - 18th Jul 17
Accepting a Society of Government Tyranny - 18th Jul 17
Gold Cheaper Than Buying Greek Villas in 2012 - 18th Jul 17
Why & How to Hedge the Growing Risks of Holding Stocks - 18th Jul 17
Relocation: Everything You Need to do for a Smooth Transition Abroad - 17th Jul 17
A Former Lehman Brothers Trader: It’s Time To Buy Brick And Mortar Retailers - 17th Jul 17
Bank Of England Warns “Bigger Systemic Risk” Now Than 2008 - 17th Jul 17
Bitcoin Price “Deja Vu” Corrective Sequence - 17th Jul 17
Charting New Low in Speculation in Gold and Silver Markets - 17th Jul 17
Bitcoin Crash - Is This The End of Cryptocurrencies? - 17th Jul 17
The Fed's Inflation Nightmare Scenario - 17th Jul 17
Billionaire Investors Backing A Marijuana Boom In 2017 - 17th Jul 17
Perfect Storm - This Fourth Turning has Over a Decade of Continuous Storms to Come - 17th Jul 17
Gold and Silver Biggest Opportunity Since Late 2015, Last Chance at These Prices - 17th Jul 17
Stock Market More to Go - 17th Jul 17
Emerging Markets & Basic Materials Stocks Breaking Out Together - 16th Jul 17
Stock Market SPX Uptrending Again After Microscopic Correction - 15th Jul 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Crude Oil, Gold, ETFs & more: Pro-grade Market Forecasts

Silver Price is Following its 1970s Pattern

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Apr 12, 2013 - 03:37 PM GMT

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Commodities

The cyclical bear market in Silver is serving its purpose. Its correcting and digesting the 6-fold advance that took place in less than two and a half years. A similar correction took place in the mid 1970s that led to the parabolic move to $50. Amazingly, if you line up Silver’s performance from its 1971 low to 1980 high with Silver’s performance since its 2008 bottom, you’ll notice strong parallels.


(Note that the blue prices are rescaled). The initial bull run was stronger, lasted a few more months and that could be why the current correction is slightly deeper. Nevertheless, look at how similar the two are!

Its important to note that huge moves require long periods of digestion and correction. Commodities typically encounter near vertical moves that are sprung from deeply oversold conditions or multi-year consolidations. The two initial advances on the chart are quite similar and that is a reason why the ensuing corrections are similar.

Moving along, Silver is at an interesting juncture as it continues to hang above multi-year support at $26 amid persistent extreme bearish sentiment. This chart from Tiho Brkan shows that gross speculative short positions are at their highest levels in decades. The short positions are potential fuel for a sharp rebound.

Furthermore, last week public opinion (an amalgamation of a handful of surveys courtesy of sentimentrader.com) reached the lowest level since at least 2004.

Following its run in the early 1970s, it took Silver three and a half years to begin its next run and five years to make its next high. It has been about two years since Silver’s last peak. Huge advances require quarters and years of digestion. This is how markets work. It’s not manipulation or a fake market as some say.

The good news is the short-term outlook is favorable. Precious metals markets have yet to put in a bottom but each new day brings us closer. While Silver won’t touch $50 anytime soon (or even $40), a rebound to $35 would be quite substantial in percentage terms. Most Silver stocks would rise well over 50%.

The long-term trend and fundamentals remain intact for both Silver and Gold. Day traders and reporters will tell you there is no sovereign debt bubble or threat of inflation but, as Kyle Bass recently pointed out that can change very quickly. Remember the financial crisis? Look at the charts of financial stocks. They were fine for many years and then fell off a cliff within a year. There were people who, in the middle of 2008 thought we weren’t even going to have a recession! Most never learn.

I suspect the major catalyst will occur when governments lose control of their own bond markets. They have to continue to print money for years and it will be a major catalyst for Gold & Silver when bond markets go the other way. This could be the catalyst for Silver eventually breaking $50 and reaching triple digits. Currently, quality gold and silver miners (mostly not in GDX or GDX) are trading well off their highs and at their lowest valuations in quite a while.

If you'd be interested in professional guidance in this endeavor, then we invite you to learn more about our service.

Good Luck!

Email: Jordan@TheDailyGold.com
Service Link: http://thedailygold.com/premium

Bio: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT  is a Chartered Market Technician, a member of the Market Technicians Association and from 2010-2013 an official contributor to the CME Group, the largest futures exchange in the world. He is the publisher and editor of TheDailyGold Premium, a publication which emphaszies market timing and stock selection for the sophisticated investor.  Jordan's work has been featured in CNBC, Barrons, Financial Times Alphaville, and his editorials are regularly published in 321gold, Gold-Eagle, FinancialSense, GoldSeek, Kitco and Yahoo Finance. He is quoted regularly in Barrons. Jordan was a speaker at PDAC 2012, the largest mining conference in the world.

Jordan Roy-Byrne Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife