Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Putin’s World: Why Russia’s Showdown with the West Will Worsen - John_Mauldin
2. Stocks Bull Market Grinds Bears into Dust, Is Santa Rally Sustainable? - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Gold and Silver 2015 Trend Forecasts, Prices to Go BOOM - Austin_Galt
4.Gold Price Golden Bottom? - Toby_Connor
5.Gold Price and Miners Soar on Huge Volume - P_Radomski_CFA
6.Stock Market and the Jaws of Life or Death? - Rambus_Chartology
7.Gold Price 2015 - EWI
8.Manipulated Stock Market Short Squeezes to Another All Time High - The China Syndrome - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Gold, Silver, Crude and S&P Ending Wedge Patterns - DeviantInvestor
10.Is the Gold And Silver Golden Rule Broken? - Michael_Noonan
Last 5 days
The Commodities Market Is Not Dying, It’s Just Hibernating - 19th Dec 14
The Price Of Gold And The Art Of War - 18th Dec 14
Euro Succumbs to ECB QE Expectations and FOMC - 18th Dec 14
John Williams: A Downhill Run for the U.S. Dollar in 2015 - 18th Dec 14
Outrage at Taliban Islamic Fundamentalists Massacre of 132 Pakistani School Children in the Name of God - 18th Dec 14
How Inflation Changes Retirement Benefit Choices - 17th Dec 14
The Real Reason It's Tough to Beat the Stock Market - 17th Dec 14
Russian Currency Crisis and Debt Defaults Could Create Contagion in West - 17th Dec 14
How to Profit From Russia's Stock Market Crash - 17th Dec 14
Russia Crisis - If You Put Your Money in the Bank Will You Get it Back? - 17th Dec 14
Crude Oil Price Crash, U.S. Employment and Economic Growth - 17th Dec 14
Opposing Forces At Play In Gold and Silver Precious Metals Complex - 17th Dec 14
Wall Street Will Always Find An Excuse For Not Raising U.S. Interest Rates - 17th Dec 14
Torture, Terror And Elite Schizophrenia In The UK - 16th Dec 14
Eurozone Conflict Will Bring a Major Stocks Buying Opportunity - 16th Dec 14
Viewing Russia From the Inside - 16th Dec 14
Gold and Silver Stocks Bottom - Are We There Yet? - 16th Dec 14
The Financial Industry Pigmen Win Again - 16th Dec 14
Crude Oil Price Epic Blowout - 16th Dec 14
Asian Stocks Markets: Sand In The Gears Of The Bull Market - 16th Dec 14
U.S. Dollar Trend Forecast 2015 - Video - 16th Dec 14
Silver Price Bottom? - 15th Dec 14
Gold Price Base Building Bullish Pattern - 15th Dec 14
Stock Market Probable Pop-n-Crash Today - 15th Dec 14
Stock Market Time for a Bounce - 15th Dec 14
Stock Market Euphoria: The Mother of All Ponzi Schemes - 15th Dec 14
Gold - The Weight of Time as Trend - 15th Dec 14
U.S. Dollar Collapse? USD Index Trend Forecast 2015 - 14th Dec 14
The Rushing Stocks Bear Market and How to Prepare - 14th Dec 14
Gold and Silver Dreaming of a White Christmas - 14th Dec 14
Cyprus-style Bank Bail-ins to Take Deposits and Pensions - The Global Bankers' Coup - 13th Dec 14
How To Renounce Your US Citizenship And Become Stateless - 13th Dec 14
Stock Market Downtrend Underway - 13th Dec 14
Gold And Silver - Wall Street, aka United States, Pulls Off Another Destructive Coup - 13th Dec 14
U.S. Congress Has Guaranteed the Secular Stocks Bear Market is Not Over - 13th Dec 14
Gold and Silver Starting to Show Bullish Signs - 13th Dec 14
Arab Spring II is Coming Fast - The Unintended Consequences of Lower Oil Prices - 13th Dec 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Dramatic Stock Market Selloff

Gold And Silver – Bullish Hopes In Bear Market, Trend Wins

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Apr 14, 2013 - 03:18 PM GMT

By: Michael_Noonan

Commodities

What happened?! is the question so many are asking about Friday's waterfall in prices. A better question is, "Why?" Outside of the insiders, no one really knows. Yes, there can be some fairly cogent explanations, lots of glib answers, but no one knows, for sure.

What we do know for sure is that the market is always the final arbiter. Throughout the decline of the past nearly few years, there has been a continued glimmer of hope for a turnaround in recognition of the infinite printing of fiat, countries drowning in debt, and the only viable solution, at least in the Western world, has been more debt!


Who issues that debt? The central bankers, IMF, EU, Basel Committee, all unelected, non-represented factions that run the lives of the Western world under the sanction of the officially-elected-but moneychangers-beholding governments.

Friday, 12 April 2013, was a sign of desperation. It may become known or apparent at some point in the future, but if we strictly adhere to the message of current developing market activity, as displayed in the charts, almost all market surprises occur within the trend. As our Commentary title states, amidst all the bullish hopes for PMs to soar to considerably higher levels, the market trend wins, as it always does.

Our comments have not been immune to those hopes, as we have strongly advocated the purchase and holding of physical gold and silver, but the comments have also been qualified with the advice to not buy futures, simply because the charts were sending that very message. The advice to buy and hold physical gold and silver is as important as ever. We have no clue what prompted the Western central bankers to crush the markets lower, but it will ultimately fail, as history as amply proven.

"If you can keep your head when all around you are losing theirs... If you can trust yourself when all men doubt..." ~ Edited from Rudyard Kipling's "If"

The point is to keep a level head in what appears to be turmoil for the real turmoil is on the other side, the opposition to PMs as a known alternative to the issue of worthless fiat. We cannot say nothing has changed, for price just got lower, but the attempt to destroy whatever opposes fiat debt is obviously a high priority for central planners, and their message is very clear: they will stop at nothing to continue their fraud. Nothing.

Instead of trying to figure out the unknown, look at what is known for certain, and that is the results of the decision-makers who cannot hide their intent from the trail left behind, price and volume "footprints" for everyone to see, or for those who choose to see what too many overlook or ignore.

One point worth remembering is the charts reflect the paper market, and the paper market is in the total control of central banks, so you see what they want you to see, and what they want you to see is the apparent failure of PMs to do well. They are succeeding, to that extent. Everything else central planners are doing is failing, and there is little reason to believe they will succeed in this game plan, either.

The trend is always the number one factor, then the location of price within the trend. Gold is moving sideways, but still within an overall bullish condition, based upon the facts presented. The current location within the trend is neutral to slightly negative.


Insiders will never reveal their "hand," especially the central banking cabal, but we can read what they are doing, overall, by the clues left behind. Within the down channel, there was a definite clue in the weakness of the last rally that failed to reach the upper channel line. Weak rallies within a bear trend inevitably lead to lower prices. As we always say, one can never know how the market will unfold, and certainly no one was prepared for how current market activity unfolded on Friday.

Curiously, the overall volume for the week was not that strong. We construe that as an indication that the number of weak sellers and stops was not that great.

We presented this Bearish Spacing in our last commentary, when we stated: "Here is a closer "read" of developing market activity. The trend is down, and the bearish spacing is just that, bearish. The three points made on the chart are indisputable facts. You can have a contrary opinion, but opinions are not facts, no matter how strongly held."

The comment stresses opinions are not facts. The trend is very much a fact. [First par. after 2nd chart, plus 3rd chart, Comex Prices Manipulated? http://bit.ly/YYX5HV]

One truism to always keep in mind about the markets is: "Anything Can Happen." Friday was one of those days. Remember it in that context.


Silver is already under the 50% retracement from swing low to swing high, which is a general indication of a weaker trend. The bullish spacing is smaller than gold's, but price is holding support a little better.

As with gold, no one knows how much lower silver can go, and there is no evidence of a turnaround.


We certainly held out "hopes" for a turnaround in previous analyses, still not arguing against the tape for taking a long position in the futures, and as a consequence, did not even consider the short side. That is what a bias will do.

As pointed out below, given the manner of how price unfolded within the TR, it cannot be a surprise that price continued lower. The extent of Friday's decline was a surprise, and it goes back to the importance of knowing, "Anything Can Happen."


All anyone can do is wait to see how the market reacts to Friday's sell-off. It never pays to guess or anticipate, and no one anticipated how price declined so much. Let the market inform us as to what the next development will be, for the market is never wrong, and the market never lies. Trust it.


By Michael Noonan

http://edgetraderplus.com

Michael Noonan, mn@edgetraderplus.com, is a Chicago-based trader with over 30 years in the business. His sole approach to analysis is derived from developing market pattern behavior, found in the form of Price, Volume, and Time, and it is generated from the best source possible, the market itself.

© 2013 Copyright Michael Noonan - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Michael Noonan Archive

© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014