Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Scottish Independence YES Vote Panic - Scotland Committing Suicide and Terminating the UK? - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Your “Last, Best” Chance to Buy Apple Stock at a Bargain Price - Michael A. Robinson
3.Gold and Silver Price Ready To Go BOOM - Austin_Galt
4.Please Scotland, Blow Up The European Union - Raul_I_Meijer
5.Gold and Silver Potential Price Meltdown Scenario - Rambus_Chartology
6.Scottish Independence UK Catastrophe - The Balkanisation of Britain - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
7.The Truth About Where Gold Price Is Headed - Chris_Vermeulen
8.The Price Of Gold And The Art Of War Part I - Darryl_R_Schoon
9.World Stock Markets Are Topping - Dow, ASX, BSE, DAX and FTSE Analysis - Austin_Galt
10.Gold And Silver New World Order of Deceit, Debt, and War. PMs A Casualty - Michael_Noonan
Last 5 days
Why ECB QE Is Bearish For Gold Prices - 15th Sept 14
Property Rights and Property Taxes—and Countries That Don’t Have Them - 15th Sept 14
Junior Miners Breaking Out Higher Forecasting Gold and Silver Price Bottom? - 15th Sept 14
Stock Market Patiently Waiting for Mean Reversion - 15th Sept 14
A Closer Look at the US Dollar - 15th Sept 14
The Silver Price Sentiment Cycle - 15th Sept 14
Stock Market Correction Underway - 15th Sept 14
Marc Faber - “I Want To Be Diversified, I Want To Own Some Gold” - 15th Sept 14
The Myth of Nuclear Weapons - 15th Sept 14
US Dollar Forecast to Go Much Higher - 15th Sept 14
Analysis And Price Projection Of The Uranium Market - 15th Sept 14
Bank of England Panic! Scottish Independence Bank Run Already Underway! - 15th Sept 14
The Ethics of Entrepreneurship and Profit - 14th Sept 14
The Big Investor Opportunity in the Orbital Space Junkyard - 14th Sept 14
Kohl's and The Rest of The Retailers are in Deep Doo Doo - 14th Sept 14
Independent Scotland Will Disintegrate as Unionist Regions Demand Referendum's to Rejoin UK - 14th Sept 14
Stock Market Pullback Continues - 13th Sept 14
SNP Fanatics Warn of Day of Reckoning for Scottish Independence No Campaigners - 13th Sept 14
Scottish Independence Would Shake Up the Global System - 13th Sept 14
The World Order Becomes Disorder - 13th Sept 14
Is Geothermal Power About to Become The Next Great Battleground Over Fracking? - 12th Sept 14
Heavy Gold and Silver Shorting is Bullish - 12th Sept 14
Strong U.S. Dollar Undermines Gold and Silver - 12th Sept 14
Debt And The Decline Of Money - 12th Sept 14
Panic On The Streets Of London ... Can Scotland Ever Be The Same Again? - 12th Sept 14
Will The Real Silver Commercials Stand Up? - 12th Sept 14
If You Own Only One Investment, Make Sure This Is It - 12th Sept 14
Main Reason Why Scotland Will Vote NO to Independence, 70% Probability - 12th Sept 14
Better Days Ahead For U.S. Stock And Housing Market - 12th Sept 14
U.S. Meddling Dims Prospects for Ukraine Peace - 12th Sept 14
Is the Fed Preparing to Asset-Strip Local Governments? - 12th Sept 14
China Holds “Gold Congress” - Positioning Itself As Global Gold Hub - 11th Sept 14
Fire Ice Could be Energy's Magic Bullet or a Planet-killing Catastrophe - 11th Sept 14
The Mass Psychosis Of 9 /11 Will Never Be Healed - 11th Sept 14
Radical Islam's Crisis of Competing Caliphates - 11th Sept 14
Ukraine Crisis And Self-Determination - 11th Sept 14
Cameron and Miliband Desperately Attempt to Prevent Scotland Committing Suicide - 11th Sept 14
A Supply Crunch Points to Higher Uranium Prices - 11th Sept 14
The Myanmar Shadow - 11th Sept 14
Europe Takes the QE Baton - 11th Sept 14
Full Frontal Inflation - 11th Sept 14
Scottish Independence UK Catastrophe - The Balkanisation of Britain - Video - 10th Sep 14
Economic Reality of a Wealth Tax - 10th Sep 14
10 Year U.S. Treasury Short Best Place to be Remainder of 2014 - 10th Sep 14
Gold Bugs Shifting Sentiment - 10th Sep 14
Strong U.S. Dollar Weakens September Gold Price - 10th Sep 14
Here's Why Trendlines Are Your New Best Friend, Part 2 - 10th Sep 14
Gold, Stocks and US Dollar Long Cycles, Trend Changes - 9th Sep 14
AUDNZD Another Pullback Forex Trading Opportunity? - 9th Sep 14
A Better Way to Play Tesla’s Success in China - 9th Sep 14
The Price Of Gold And The Art Of War Part I - 9th Sep 14
What's With the Japanese Yen? - 9th Sep 14
Macro Factors Dominating Gold Price As US Dollar Outweighs Physical Demand And Investor Flows - 9th Sep 14
It's Time to Get a Bargain on Apple Stock - 9th Sep 14
Gold and Silver Potential Price Meltdown Scenario - 9th Sep 14
No Economy For Americans - 9th Sep 14
Did Putin Just Bring Peace to Ukraine? - 9th Sep 14
Suckering the Public on a War of Terror - 9th Sep 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Huge Stocks Bear Market

Gold And Silver – Bullish Hopes In Bear Market, Trend Wins

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Apr 14, 2013 - 03:18 PM GMT

By: Michael_Noonan

Commodities

What happened?! is the question so many are asking about Friday's waterfall in prices. A better question is, "Why?" Outside of the insiders, no one really knows. Yes, there can be some fairly cogent explanations, lots of glib answers, but no one knows, for sure.

What we do know for sure is that the market is always the final arbiter. Throughout the decline of the past nearly few years, there has been a continued glimmer of hope for a turnaround in recognition of the infinite printing of fiat, countries drowning in debt, and the only viable solution, at least in the Western world, has been more debt!


Who issues that debt? The central bankers, IMF, EU, Basel Committee, all unelected, non-represented factions that run the lives of the Western world under the sanction of the officially-elected-but moneychangers-beholding governments.

Friday, 12 April 2013, was a sign of desperation. It may become known or apparent at some point in the future, but if we strictly adhere to the message of current developing market activity, as displayed in the charts, almost all market surprises occur within the trend. As our Commentary title states, amidst all the bullish hopes for PMs to soar to considerably higher levels, the market trend wins, as it always does.

Our comments have not been immune to those hopes, as we have strongly advocated the purchase and holding of physical gold and silver, but the comments have also been qualified with the advice to not buy futures, simply because the charts were sending that very message. The advice to buy and hold physical gold and silver is as important as ever. We have no clue what prompted the Western central bankers to crush the markets lower, but it will ultimately fail, as history as amply proven.

"If you can keep your head when all around you are losing theirs... If you can trust yourself when all men doubt..." ~ Edited from Rudyard Kipling's "If"

The point is to keep a level head in what appears to be turmoil for the real turmoil is on the other side, the opposition to PMs as a known alternative to the issue of worthless fiat. We cannot say nothing has changed, for price just got lower, but the attempt to destroy whatever opposes fiat debt is obviously a high priority for central planners, and their message is very clear: they will stop at nothing to continue their fraud. Nothing.

Instead of trying to figure out the unknown, look at what is known for certain, and that is the results of the decision-makers who cannot hide their intent from the trail left behind, price and volume "footprints" for everyone to see, or for those who choose to see what too many overlook or ignore.

One point worth remembering is the charts reflect the paper market, and the paper market is in the total control of central banks, so you see what they want you to see, and what they want you to see is the apparent failure of PMs to do well. They are succeeding, to that extent. Everything else central planners are doing is failing, and there is little reason to believe they will succeed in this game plan, either.

The trend is always the number one factor, then the location of price within the trend. Gold is moving sideways, but still within an overall bullish condition, based upon the facts presented. The current location within the trend is neutral to slightly negative.


Insiders will never reveal their "hand," especially the central banking cabal, but we can read what they are doing, overall, by the clues left behind. Within the down channel, there was a definite clue in the weakness of the last rally that failed to reach the upper channel line. Weak rallies within a bear trend inevitably lead to lower prices. As we always say, one can never know how the market will unfold, and certainly no one was prepared for how current market activity unfolded on Friday.

Curiously, the overall volume for the week was not that strong. We construe that as an indication that the number of weak sellers and stops was not that great.

We presented this Bearish Spacing in our last commentary, when we stated: "Here is a closer "read" of developing market activity. The trend is down, and the bearish spacing is just that, bearish. The three points made on the chart are indisputable facts. You can have a contrary opinion, but opinions are not facts, no matter how strongly held."

The comment stresses opinions are not facts. The trend is very much a fact. [First par. after 2nd chart, plus 3rd chart, Comex Prices Manipulated? http://bit.ly/YYX5HV]

One truism to always keep in mind about the markets is: "Anything Can Happen." Friday was one of those days. Remember it in that context.


Silver is already under the 50% retracement from swing low to swing high, which is a general indication of a weaker trend. The bullish spacing is smaller than gold's, but price is holding support a little better.

As with gold, no one knows how much lower silver can go, and there is no evidence of a turnaround.


We certainly held out "hopes" for a turnaround in previous analyses, still not arguing against the tape for taking a long position in the futures, and as a consequence, did not even consider the short side. That is what a bias will do.

As pointed out below, given the manner of how price unfolded within the TR, it cannot be a surprise that price continued lower. The extent of Friday's decline was a surprise, and it goes back to the importance of knowing, "Anything Can Happen."


All anyone can do is wait to see how the market reacts to Friday's sell-off. It never pays to guess or anticipate, and no one anticipated how price declined so much. Let the market inform us as to what the next development will be, for the market is never wrong, and the market never lies. Trust it.


By Michael Noonan

http://edgetraderplus.com

Michael Noonan, mn@edgetraderplus.com, is a Chicago-based trader with over 30 years in the business. His sole approach to analysis is derived from developing market pattern behavior, found in the form of Price, Volume, and Time, and it is generated from the best source possible, the market itself.

© 2013 Copyright Michael Noonan - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Michael Noonan Archive

© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014