Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.U.S. Housing Bull Market Over? House Prices Trend Forecast Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Coming U.S. Economic Collapse Will Trigger a Revolution - Harry_Dent
3. Stock Market Crash a Historical Pattern? - Wim_Grommen
4.Global Panic - U.S. Federal Government Stockpiling Ammo – Here’s What We’re Going to Do - Shah Gilani
5.AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs - Aaron Smith
6.This is Your Economic Recovery With and Without Drugs - James_Quinn
7.Gold and Silver Price Getting Set To Explode Higher - Austin_Galt
8.The Something for Nothing Society - Lifecycle of Bureaucracy - Ty_Andros
9.Another Interesting Stock Market Juncture - Tony_Caldaro
10.Inflation vs the Deflationary Straw Man - Gary_Tanashian
Last 5 days
The ISIS Menace - Just What We Need, Another War - 27th Aug 14
The Risky Business of Methane-Rich “Fire Ice” - 27th Aug 14
CFR Recommends Policy Shift that is Very Bullish for Gold - 27th Aug 14
Ukraine Standoff Signals Global Power Shift - 27th Aug 14
Stock Market Panic Decline Begins - 27th Aug 14
The Monopoly of the Government Education Cartel - 27th Aug 14
How to Invest in Silver Today for Double-Digit Gains - 27th Aug 14
The Big Solar Energy Breakthrough We've Been Waiting For - 27th Aug 14
U.S. Empire’s Bumpy Ride - 27th Aug 14
Gold Market and the Interest Rate Trap - 27th Aug 14
Stock Market Staring Into the Great Abyss - 27th Aug 14
A Look at the Coming 30-year Inflation Cycle - 27th Aug 14
Forex Trading - Will USD/CHF Rally Above 0.9200? - 27th Aug 14
Europe’s Depressing Economy Dog Days of Summer - 27th Aug 14
How The Coming Silver Price Bubble Will Develop - 26th Aug 14
A Nation of Shopkeepers - Supply-Side (Voodoo) Economics? - 26th Aug 14
Stock Market Bear Tracks Abound In Wall Street - 26th Aug 14
65,000 U.S. Marines Hold up a Mirror to the Economy - 26th Aug 14
Bitcoin Market Provides Clues for Investors - 26th Aug 14
The Key to Trading Success - 26th Aug 14
Will The US Succeed in Breaking Russia to Maintain Dollar Hegemony?... - 26th Aug 14
Even Mainstream Academia Worried about Massive Bubbles in Markets - 26th Aug 14
Iraq and Syria Follow Lebanon's Precedent - 26th Aug 14
Colonization by Bankruptcy: The High-stakes Chess Match for Argentina - 26th Aug 14
Dow Stock Index On The Cusp - 26th Aug 14
Prohibition Laws and Agency Regulations - 26th Aug 14
Will Canadian Regulators be Able to Avoid Final Fatal TSX Venture Exchange (TSX-V) Crash? - 25th Aug 14
HUI Gold Mining Stocks Elliott Wave Projection - 25th Aug 14
Stock Market Uncertainty Resolved With New High - 25th Aug 14
Go Forth Multiply And Replenish The Earth - 25th Aug 14
Dollar Dumping: When Actions Speak Loudest - 25th Aug 14
A Plethora of Currency, Stocks and Precious Metals Chartology - 25th Aug 14
Why Isn’t Fed Monetary Pumping Helping the U.S. Economy? - 25th Aug 14
Myths About Money and Inflation - 25th Aug 14
The Fed Will Raise U.S. Interest Rates in March 2015 - 25th Aug 14
Gold Price Manipulation Still Alive - 25th Aug 14
The Ebola Outbreak: U.S. Sponsored Bioterror? - 24th Aug 14
Instigating War in Europe - Understanding Ukraine in 15 Minutes - 24th Aug 14
LNG Catalysts About to Hand You the investment Opportunity of the Decade - 24th Aug 14
Another Interesting Stock Market Juncture - 24th Aug 14
The West Set Up the ISIS Endgame - 24th Aug 14
Gold And Silver Low Prices Are NOT The Reason To Own Precious Metals - 24th Aug 14
U.S. Housing Bull Market Over? House Prices Trend Forecast Current State - 23rd Aug 14
Inflation vs the Deflationary Straw Man - 23rd Aug 14
U.S. Interest Rate Rise to Occur Mid-2015 According to Fed's Williams - 23rd Aug 14
Bitcoin Price Continuation of a Move up - 23rd Aug 14
Gold and Crude Oil Price on the Verge of Something Big - Hero's Rarely Win - 23rd Aug 14
Oxaloacetate Feeds and GROWS Brain Cells - Alzheimers Cure? - 23rd Aug 14
Gold Rising Interest Rate Fallacy - 22nd Aug 14
Jackson Hole: Myth of the All Powerful Central Banker Continues - 22nd Aug 14
Partying On In The Terror State - Thank God for Nuclear Weapons - 22nd Aug 14
The Something for Nothing Society - Lifecycle of Bureaucracy - 22nd Aug 14
Hitting The ISIS Panic Button In The Middle East - 22nd Aug 14
US Stock Indices 10-Year Consolidation Patterns ... Upside Breakouts? - 22nd Aug 14
Gold and Silver Price Getting Set To Explode Higher - 22nd Aug 14
Deflation's Final Curtain Call - Part II - 22nd Aug 14 - Clif_Droke
Gold Big Picture: Most Important - 22nd Aug 14
How the “Uncertainty Factor” Drives Crude Oil Prices - 22nd Aug 14
Inflation, Interest Rates, and Why You Should Own Gold - 22nd Aug 14
U.S. Interest Rates Can Rise States Fed President - 22nd Aug 14
Why Emotional Discipline is Key to Trading Success - 21st Aug 14
Getting the Most Value from Your “Geriatric Cruiser” - 21st Aug 14
Mafia Boss Claims Stocks A Bubble, Buy Physical Gold and Silver - 21st Aug 14
Outrage! On The Beheading of Our Media Brother James Foley - 21st Aug 14
Stock Market Crash a Historical Pattern? - 21st Aug 14
The Black Box Economy - 21st Aug 14
The Bond Market is taking Advantage of Janet Yellen`s Dovishness - 21st Aug 14
Meet Your Investment Manager - 21st Aug 14
Gold and Silver Trading Alert as U.S. Dollar Soars to New Highs - 21st Aug 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The Biggest lie in Stock Market History Revealed

Gold And Silver – Bullish Hopes In Bear Market, Trend Wins

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Apr 14, 2013 - 03:18 PM GMT

By: Michael_Noonan

Commodities

What happened?! is the question so many are asking about Friday's waterfall in prices. A better question is, "Why?" Outside of the insiders, no one really knows. Yes, there can be some fairly cogent explanations, lots of glib answers, but no one knows, for sure.

What we do know for sure is that the market is always the final arbiter. Throughout the decline of the past nearly few years, there has been a continued glimmer of hope for a turnaround in recognition of the infinite printing of fiat, countries drowning in debt, and the only viable solution, at least in the Western world, has been more debt!


Who issues that debt? The central bankers, IMF, EU, Basel Committee, all unelected, non-represented factions that run the lives of the Western world under the sanction of the officially-elected-but moneychangers-beholding governments.

Friday, 12 April 2013, was a sign of desperation. It may become known or apparent at some point in the future, but if we strictly adhere to the message of current developing market activity, as displayed in the charts, almost all market surprises occur within the trend. As our Commentary title states, amidst all the bullish hopes for PMs to soar to considerably higher levels, the market trend wins, as it always does.

Our comments have not been immune to those hopes, as we have strongly advocated the purchase and holding of physical gold and silver, but the comments have also been qualified with the advice to not buy futures, simply because the charts were sending that very message. The advice to buy and hold physical gold and silver is as important as ever. We have no clue what prompted the Western central bankers to crush the markets lower, but it will ultimately fail, as history as amply proven.

"If you can keep your head when all around you are losing theirs... If you can trust yourself when all men doubt..." ~ Edited from Rudyard Kipling's "If"

The point is to keep a level head in what appears to be turmoil for the real turmoil is on the other side, the opposition to PMs as a known alternative to the issue of worthless fiat. We cannot say nothing has changed, for price just got lower, but the attempt to destroy whatever opposes fiat debt is obviously a high priority for central planners, and their message is very clear: they will stop at nothing to continue their fraud. Nothing.

Instead of trying to figure out the unknown, look at what is known for certain, and that is the results of the decision-makers who cannot hide their intent from the trail left behind, price and volume "footprints" for everyone to see, or for those who choose to see what too many overlook or ignore.

One point worth remembering is the charts reflect the paper market, and the paper market is in the total control of central banks, so you see what they want you to see, and what they want you to see is the apparent failure of PMs to do well. They are succeeding, to that extent. Everything else central planners are doing is failing, and there is little reason to believe they will succeed in this game plan, either.

The trend is always the number one factor, then the location of price within the trend. Gold is moving sideways, but still within an overall bullish condition, based upon the facts presented. The current location within the trend is neutral to slightly negative.


Insiders will never reveal their "hand," especially the central banking cabal, but we can read what they are doing, overall, by the clues left behind. Within the down channel, there was a definite clue in the weakness of the last rally that failed to reach the upper channel line. Weak rallies within a bear trend inevitably lead to lower prices. As we always say, one can never know how the market will unfold, and certainly no one was prepared for how current market activity unfolded on Friday.

Curiously, the overall volume for the week was not that strong. We construe that as an indication that the number of weak sellers and stops was not that great.

We presented this Bearish Spacing in our last commentary, when we stated: "Here is a closer "read" of developing market activity. The trend is down, and the bearish spacing is just that, bearish. The three points made on the chart are indisputable facts. You can have a contrary opinion, but opinions are not facts, no matter how strongly held."

The comment stresses opinions are not facts. The trend is very much a fact. [First par. after 2nd chart, plus 3rd chart, Comex Prices Manipulated? http://bit.ly/YYX5HV]

One truism to always keep in mind about the markets is: "Anything Can Happen." Friday was one of those days. Remember it in that context.


Silver is already under the 50% retracement from swing low to swing high, which is a general indication of a weaker trend. The bullish spacing is smaller than gold's, but price is holding support a little better.

As with gold, no one knows how much lower silver can go, and there is no evidence of a turnaround.


We certainly held out "hopes" for a turnaround in previous analyses, still not arguing against the tape for taking a long position in the futures, and as a consequence, did not even consider the short side. That is what a bias will do.

As pointed out below, given the manner of how price unfolded within the TR, it cannot be a surprise that price continued lower. The extent of Friday's decline was a surprise, and it goes back to the importance of knowing, "Anything Can Happen."


All anyone can do is wait to see how the market reacts to Friday's sell-off. It never pays to guess or anticipate, and no one anticipated how price declined so much. Let the market inform us as to what the next development will be, for the market is never wrong, and the market never lies. Trust it.


By Michael Noonan

http://edgetraderplus.com

Michael Noonan, mn@edgetraderplus.com, is a Chicago-based trader with over 30 years in the business. His sole approach to analysis is derived from developing market pattern behavior, found in the form of Price, Volume, and Time, and it is generated from the best source possible, the market itself.

© 2013 Copyright Michael Noonan - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Michael Noonan Archive

© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014