Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.US Dollar Crashes, Gold And Bitcoin Skyrocket As Economic Recovery Lie Is Exposed - Jeff_Berwick
2.Now Obama Warns Americans to ‘Be Prepared’ for Disaster… What Does He Know? - Jeff_Berwick
3.EU Referendum - Britain's Immigration / Migrant Crisis Explained - Nadeem_Walayat
4.EU Referendum - British People vs Establishment Elite, Vote LEAVE an Act of Defiance! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Prominent Billionaire Investors Warn of Financial Crash, Quietly Position Themselves - MoneyMetals
6.Bankers Warn of BrExit Financial Armageddon if British People Vote for Freedom - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bad U.S. Jobs Report Prompts Stocks Bear Market Rally Towards New All Time Highs! - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Gold And Silver – Friday May Have Marked A Pivotal Turnaround - Michael_Noonan
9.EU Referendum - British People vs Establishment Elite, the Illusion of Democracy and Freedom - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Felix Zulauf: Monetary Stimulation Creates Bubbles, Not Prosperity Nor Growth - GoldandLiberty
Free Silver
Last 7 days
First the UK, then Scotland ... then Texas? - 26th June 16
Stocks Bear Market Resumes or Just More Noise - 26th June 16
Gold And Silver: Security, And BREXIT - 25th June 16
Dow, Euro & Brexit Recap - 25th June 16
Resistance Holding Gold Stocks after Brexit - 25th June 16
Venezuela vs. Ecuador (Chavismo vs. Chavismo Dollarized) - 25th June 16
Gold, Silver And PM Stocks Summer Doldrums Risk - 24th June 16
Here’s Why China “Economic Hard-Landing” Worries Are Overblown - 24th June 16
Jubilee Jolt: Markets Crash, Gold Skyrockets as Britain Takes Brexit - 24th June 16
BrExit Morning - New Dawn for Britain, Independence Day! - 24th June 16
LEAVE Wins EU Referendum - Sterling and FTSE Hit Hard, Pollsters, Bookies and Markets All WRONG! - 24th June 16
Trading BrExit - British Pound Plunges, FTSE Stock Futures Slump on LEAVE Shock Referendum Win - 24th June 16
EU Referendum Shock Results Putting BrExit LEAVE in the Lead Hitting Sterling Hard - 24th June 16
Final Opinion Poll Gives REMAIN 52% Lead, Bookmakers, Markets and Pollsters ALL Back REMAIN Win - 23rd June 16
Does BREXIT Matter? Outlook for Sterling - 23rd June 16
Keep Calm and Vote BrExit - Last Chance to Break Free of EU Superstate - 23rd June 16
Here’s the Foreign Policy Trump and Clinton Really Want - 23rd June 16
Details Behind Semiconductor Stocks Leadership - 23rd June 16
Trading BrExit - Stocks, Bonds, Sterling, Opinion Polls, Bookmaker Odds and My Forecast - 23rd June 16
BrExit Looks Set to Win EU Referendum, Final Opinion Polls Give LEAVE Lead Over REMAIN - 22nd June 16
Proof that the Gold Bears are Wrong - 22nd June 16
Here’s a Trillion-Dollar Investment Opportunity for Those Few with No Debt - 22nd June 16
BrExit to Save Europe from Climate Change Refugee Migration Apocalypse - 22nd June 16
Increase In U.S. Rig Count Will Not Cap Oil Prices - 22nd June 16
Are Copper and China Stocks Set to Rally? - 22nd June 16
SPX May Break Its Trendline - 22nd June 16
Believe it or Not: More Kids Live At Home Now than Since The Great Depression - 21st June 16
EU Referendum Latest Opinion Polls Show LEAVE Halting REMAINs Surge - 21st June 16
British Pound Outlook - BREXIT, Europe and You - Does your vote matter? - 21st June 16
Fascist Victory Behind the European Union - 21st June 16
EU Referendum Opinion Polls Analysis Shows Strong Momentum in REMAINs Favour - 21st June 16
Is It Time to Dump Gold and Buy Platinum? - 21st June 16
Could Central Bankers Be Gold and Silver's BIGGEST Allies? - 20th June 16
Words Still Mean Things – Brexit With Graham Mehl - 20th June 16
Baroness Warsi the Manchurian Candidate Quits LEAVE for REMAIN, Boris Johnson Next? - 20th June 16
FTSE Soars, Stock Markets Bounce on LEAVE Polls Surge, Bookmakers Widen BrExit Odds - 20th June 16
Brexit Would Trigger Devolution of Europe - 20th June 16
Stock Market Week Of Uncertainty - 20th June 16
Will Gold’s Bullish Price Chart Outperform Gold’s 5 Bearish Indicators? - 20th June 16
Bonds And Stocks At All-Time Highs: Are Markets Confused Or Broken? - 20th June 16
Silver Sleeping On the Job - 19th June 16
BrExit Odds Sink, REMAIN Polls Boost by Jo Cox Killing by Radical Right Extremist, Conspiracy? - 19th June 16
How Elliott Waves Tell You When to "Jump In" & When to "Jump Out" of Markets - 18th June 16
Stock Market Inflection Point During Bifurcation - 18th June 16
Gold And Silver – Insanity Is World “Norm.” Keep Stacking! - 18th June 16
Gold Stocks - Bull Markets that Follow Epic Bears - 18th June 16
The Fed Giveth and the Gold Bullion Banks Taketh Away… - 17th June 16
Brexit: "The Vote Heard Around the World" - 17th June 16
Gold Stocks Summer Breakout? - 17th June 16
Stock Investors Get Higher Returns and More Dividend Income - In Less Time With Less Risk - 17th June 16
How to Use the Gold-to-Silver Ratio? - 17th June 16
Inflation, Deflation & Associated Trading Prospects - 17th June 16
Overnight Markets Struggling to Stay Flat - 17th June 16
Gold Price Surges to Highest in Nearly Two Years On Central Bank and Brexit Haven Demand - 17th June 16
Stock Market Thinking Upside Down; Dow 18k Still Key - 17th June 16
Jo Cox MP Terror Attack Killing Claimed for "Britain First" - Witness Report - 17th June 16
Stock Market, Iron Ore, Bitcoin – Is Silver Next for Chinese Momentum Investors? - 16th June 16
EU Referendum Campaigning Suspended Following Shooting of MP Jo Cox, Suspect Named as Tommy Mair - 16th June 16
Why People are Migrating to the UK, Illegal Immigration, Housing Crisis Consequences - 16th June 16
Stocks Fluctuate Following Recent Decline - Bottom Or Just Pause Before Another Leg Down? - 16th June 16
The US Consumer-Driven Economy Has Hit a Brick Wall - 16th June 16
Bitcoin Price Going Parabolic Again, Now At $730 and Up 60%+ In Last Three Weeks - 16th June 16
China's Hard Landing Has Already Begun! - 16th June 16
Crude Oil Price - Oil Bears vs. Support Zone - 16th June 16
Central Bankers Are Wrong About Inflation and Deflation - 15th June 16
Alignment Of The Dow, Interest Rates, Debt and Silver Cycles Will Deliver A Fatal Blow - 15th June 16
Stock Market Bounce May be Over - 15th June 16
EU Referendum: Have the Bookmakers Got it Wrong? LEAVE Opinion Polls Lead - 15th June 16
Gold Price Rally - 15th June 16
How to Invest for Brexit Report - 15th June 16
Stock Market Short of the Decade? - 15th June 16
Stock Market Sell Off Coming! - 14th June 16
QE - The Good, Bad & Ugly - 14th June 16
This Demographic Shift Makes Our Social Security Useless - 14th June 16
Gold Stocks Ultimate Objective in a World of Monetary Transition - 14th June 16
Philosophy of the New World Order - 14th June 16
The Brexit Game - Boris Johnson vs David Cameron EU Referendum Zombies - 14th June 16
EU Referendum: LEAVE Opinion Poll Lead of 51% to 49% Whilst Bookmaker Odds Still Strongly Favour REMAIN - 14th June 16
George Soros Making Big Bets on Gold - 14th June 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

Gold And Silver – Bullish Hopes In Bear Market, Trend Wins

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Apr 14, 2013 - 03:18 PM GMT

By: Michael_Noonan

Commodities

What happened?! is the question so many are asking about Friday's waterfall in prices. A better question is, "Why?" Outside of the insiders, no one really knows. Yes, there can be some fairly cogent explanations, lots of glib answers, but no one knows, for sure.

What we do know for sure is that the market is always the final arbiter. Throughout the decline of the past nearly few years, there has been a continued glimmer of hope for a turnaround in recognition of the infinite printing of fiat, countries drowning in debt, and the only viable solution, at least in the Western world, has been more debt!


Who issues that debt? The central bankers, IMF, EU, Basel Committee, all unelected, non-represented factions that run the lives of the Western world under the sanction of the officially-elected-but moneychangers-beholding governments.

Friday, 12 April 2013, was a sign of desperation. It may become known or apparent at some point in the future, but if we strictly adhere to the message of current developing market activity, as displayed in the charts, almost all market surprises occur within the trend. As our Commentary title states, amidst all the bullish hopes for PMs to soar to considerably higher levels, the market trend wins, as it always does.

Our comments have not been immune to those hopes, as we have strongly advocated the purchase and holding of physical gold and silver, but the comments have also been qualified with the advice to not buy futures, simply because the charts were sending that very message. The advice to buy and hold physical gold and silver is as important as ever. We have no clue what prompted the Western central bankers to crush the markets lower, but it will ultimately fail, as history as amply proven.

"If you can keep your head when all around you are losing theirs... If you can trust yourself when all men doubt..." ~ Edited from Rudyard Kipling's "If"

The point is to keep a level head in what appears to be turmoil for the real turmoil is on the other side, the opposition to PMs as a known alternative to the issue of worthless fiat. We cannot say nothing has changed, for price just got lower, but the attempt to destroy whatever opposes fiat debt is obviously a high priority for central planners, and their message is very clear: they will stop at nothing to continue their fraud. Nothing.

Instead of trying to figure out the unknown, look at what is known for certain, and that is the results of the decision-makers who cannot hide their intent from the trail left behind, price and volume "footprints" for everyone to see, or for those who choose to see what too many overlook or ignore.

One point worth remembering is the charts reflect the paper market, and the paper market is in the total control of central banks, so you see what they want you to see, and what they want you to see is the apparent failure of PMs to do well. They are succeeding, to that extent. Everything else central planners are doing is failing, and there is little reason to believe they will succeed in this game plan, either.

The trend is always the number one factor, then the location of price within the trend. Gold is moving sideways, but still within an overall bullish condition, based upon the facts presented. The current location within the trend is neutral to slightly negative.


Insiders will never reveal their "hand," especially the central banking cabal, but we can read what they are doing, overall, by the clues left behind. Within the down channel, there was a definite clue in the weakness of the last rally that failed to reach the upper channel line. Weak rallies within a bear trend inevitably lead to lower prices. As we always say, one can never know how the market will unfold, and certainly no one was prepared for how current market activity unfolded on Friday.

Curiously, the overall volume for the week was not that strong. We construe that as an indication that the number of weak sellers and stops was not that great.

We presented this Bearish Spacing in our last commentary, when we stated: "Here is a closer "read" of developing market activity. The trend is down, and the bearish spacing is just that, bearish. The three points made on the chart are indisputable facts. You can have a contrary opinion, but opinions are not facts, no matter how strongly held."

The comment stresses opinions are not facts. The trend is very much a fact. [First par. after 2nd chart, plus 3rd chart, Comex Prices Manipulated? http://bit.ly/YYX5HV]

One truism to always keep in mind about the markets is: "Anything Can Happen." Friday was one of those days. Remember it in that context.


Silver is already under the 50% retracement from swing low to swing high, which is a general indication of a weaker trend. The bullish spacing is smaller than gold's, but price is holding support a little better.

As with gold, no one knows how much lower silver can go, and there is no evidence of a turnaround.


We certainly held out "hopes" for a turnaround in previous analyses, still not arguing against the tape for taking a long position in the futures, and as a consequence, did not even consider the short side. That is what a bias will do.

As pointed out below, given the manner of how price unfolded within the TR, it cannot be a surprise that price continued lower. The extent of Friday's decline was a surprise, and it goes back to the importance of knowing, "Anything Can Happen."


All anyone can do is wait to see how the market reacts to Friday's sell-off. It never pays to guess or anticipate, and no one anticipated how price declined so much. Let the market inform us as to what the next development will be, for the market is never wrong, and the market never lies. Trust it.


By Michael Noonan

http://edgetraderplus.com

Michael Noonan, mn@edgetraderplus.com, is a Chicago-based trader with over 30 years in the business. His sole approach to analysis is derived from developing market pattern behavior, found in the form of Price, Volume, and Time, and it is generated from the best source possible, the market itself.

© 2013 Copyright Michael Noonan - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Michael Noonan Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife