Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Will Deutsche Bank Crash The Global Stock Market? - Clif_Droke
3.Gold Price In Excess Of $8000 While US Dollar Collapses - Hubert_Moolman
4.BrExit UK Economic Collapse Evaporates, GDP Forecasts for 2016 and 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Stocks Massive Price Correction - Zeal_LLC
6.Stock Market Predicts Donald Trump Victory - Austin_Galt
7.Next Financial Crisis Will be Far Worse than 2008/09 - Chris_Vermeulen
8.The Gold To Housing Ratio As A Valuation Indicator - Dan_Amerman
9.GDXJ Gold Stocks - A Diamond in the Rough - Rambus_Chartology
10.Gold Boom! End Game Nears As Central Banks Buying Up Gold Mining Companies! - Jeff_Berwick
Last 7 days
Donald Trump Post Debate Meltdown, Betfair Betting Market Points to Collapse in Odds of Winning - 30th Sept 16
Silver Way Undervalued - 30th Sept 16
Why Krugman, Roubini, Rogoff And Buffett Dislike Gold - 30th Sept 16
After the Debate, the Deluge? - 30th Sept 16
Has Dow Theory Lost its Relevance: Stock Market Ignored it and Rallied to New Highs - 30th Sept 16
Donald Trump Failing to Recover After 1st Debate Hillary Shimmy Loss - Betfair Betting Market - 30th Sept 16
BEA Revises Q2 2016 US GDP Growth Upward to 1.42% - 29th Sept 16
Could the OPEC deal set stage for the Next Stock Market Risk Rally? - 29th Sept 16
Why Trump Lost, Hillary Won the 1st U.S. Presidential Debate - 29th Sept 16
Is a Dollar Crash Imminent After the Senate Overrides Obama Veto on Saudi 9/11 Bill? - 29th Sept 16
2017: Gold and Silver's Year of "Public Recognition" - 29th Sept 16
Did Trump Win the 1st US Presidential Election Debate? - There's Something Happening Here... - 29th Sept 16
FED Goes from ZIRP to NIRP! - 29th Sept 16 - Chris_Vermeulen
Here’s Why You Should Be in Cash Right Now - 28th Sept 16
The Fed Put a 50% Tax on Your Retirement Plan - 28th Sept 16
Massive Chinese Debt And Why They Are On A Gold Buying Binge! - 28th Sept 16
Stocks Commodities and FX Markets Waiting Technically While Fundamental Data Neutral Poised - 28th Sept 16
This Commodity Has Perked Up its Investors' Portfolios - 27th Sept 16
Charting the Continuing Gold Market Correction - 27th Sept 16
Stock Market Crash and Recession Indicator Warning: Extreme Danger Ahead - 27th Sept 16
Financial Markets and FX Setups 27th Sept - 27th Sept 16
Crude Oil, Forex and Stock Market Trend Forecasts - 27th Sept 16
Why There is Trump - 27th Sept 16
Save Up to 70% in Shopping Expenses for Daily Items - 27th Sept 16
Gold’s Moving Averages and Long-Term Outlook - 26th Sept 16
September Stock Market - The Not So Silent Demise of Deutsche Bank - 26th Sept 16
SPX sell signal confirmed - 26th Sept 16
SPX is testing the next level of support - 26th Sept 16
Outrageously Entertaining US Presidential Campaign Final Stages - What Happens Next? - 26th Sept 16
BoJ, FOMC and Where To Now? - 26th Sept 16
Stock Market New All Time Highs Next - 26th Sept 16
Why Trump Will Win US General Election 2016 Prediction Forecast - 26th Sept 16
Martial Law Rolls Out Across the US As Jubilee Nears - 26th Sept 16
Stock Market More Correction Likely - 25th Sept 16
US Presidential Election Forecast 2016 - Trump Riding BrExit Wave into the White House - 25th Sept 16
US Economy GDP Growth Estimates in Free-Fall: FRBNY Nowcast 2.26% Q3, 1.22% Q4 - 24th Sept 16
Gold and Gold Stocks Corrective Action Continues Despite Dovish Federal Reserve - 24th Sept 16
Global Bonds: Why Our Analyst Says Things Just Got "Monumental" - 24th Sept 16
Where Did All the Money Go? - 23rd Sept 16
Pension Shortfalls Could Be 4X To 7X Greater Than Reported - 23rd Sept 16
Gold Unleashed by the Fed - 23rd Sept 16
Gold around U.S Presidential Elections - 23rd Sept 16
Here’s Why Eastern Europe Is Doomed - 23rd Sept 16
Nasdaq NDX 100 Big Cap Tech Breakout ? - 23rd Sept 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The Power of the Wave Principle

Jim Rogers Gold Price Forecast and the Agriculture Boom

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Apr 18, 2013 - 04:40 PM GMT

By: Money_Morning

Commodities

Garrett Baldwin writes: In October, legendary Quantum Fund manager Jim Rogers made a prediction about gold prices that left many gold bugs shaking their head.

Although Rogers admitted he wasn't going to be selling his hard assets, he predicted further consolidation and a near-term correction in the metals markets.


Predicting this short-term downturn, Rogers cautioned that gold had been on the rise for twelve consecutive years, a streak that was unparalleled. That was then.

This week, his prediction rang true as gold and silver prices took another huge hit. In the aftermath, gold prices are now down approximately 30% since reaching an all-time high in August 2011.

According to Rogers gold prices have even further to fall.

"I have repeatedly babbled about $1200-1300/oz., but that is just because that would be a 30-35% correction which is normal in markets," he told Business Insider this week. "But I am a hopeless market timer/trader."

Rogers cites four key forces fueling the current gold sell-off:

■India raised its gold import tax from 4% to 6%, which has limited the demand for gold in the world's largest market for the metal.
■Technical analysts and chartists have been arguing that prices would fall.
■The collapse of the Bitcoin over the past two weeks coincides with many of the digital currency's owners also owning gold.
■Finally, Rogers believes Germany's demand that Cyprus sell part of its holdings in gold to alleviate debt concerns added to the sell-off.

Naturally, Rogers can bask in the moment. His gold call was right on the money.

But it's the second part of his October recommendation that deserves attention as well. Although it didn't receive as much fanfare as his gold call, Rogers nailed another one that day.

At the same time, he was warning on hard commodities like gold and silver, he also said there was a huge opportunity in agriculture and soft commodities.

Now for anyone who has been paying attention, the agriculture sector remains a prime area for growth in a world where glaring fundamentals point to serious problems on the horizon in keeping people fed.

A State of Concern for Global Agriculture Markets
In fact, Rogers has been on a one-man crusade to raise alarm bells about the deteriorating state of the agriculture industry and has issued a call-to-arms for more individuals around the United States to study agribusiness.

Although grain prices did slip this week during the sharp commodity sell-off, agricultural commodities remain far better positioned to recover in the near term. Aside from the obvious observation that investors can't "eat gold", grain prices are supported by far greater economic forces than hard metals. All of them point toward rising prices.

Rogers' basic thesis has been quite simple: Demand is far outpacing food supply, farmers continue to retire around the world, and global inventories and feed stocks are now hovering at historic lows.

Add in lingering concerns about last season's crippling drought and potential food shortages in the future, and it's easy to understand why corn was a top performing asset in the second half of 2012 and will likely remain so for the better part of the decade.

And it's not just investors pointing out why food prices are likely heading north.

According to the United Nations, the world population is set to grow to nearly 9 billion by 2040, up from 7 billion today.

But the real driver of food demand stems from rising global wages and a three-billion-person expansion of the global middle-class, which points to exponential growth in demand for food.

According to U.N. estimates, the world will require a 50% increase in food production, a 45% increase in energy, and a 30% increase in water. But while these problems might scare the average person, such concerns have long been alleviated by the agricultural sector's resilience and unrivaled ability to innovate in order to meet new challenges.

And there are more ways to make money off these trends than just buying farmland.

The Best Way to Play the Ag Boom
It's not just grain production that offers investors an opportunity to make money off the land.

The agricultural sector is highly consolidated with specialty firms that emphasize technological innovation in order to meet the booming rise in demand for food.

One company poised for strong growth over the next decade is Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM).

A global pioneer in commodity production and value-added services, ADM's stock is up 17.5% since the start of 2013 and currently pays a 2.36% yield. The company owns ADM Alliance Nutrition, a leading producer of livestock feed ingredients. And it's the animal nutrition industry that's taking center stage with meat demand on the rise.

Companies with expertise in animal nutrition will be critical players in servicing the booming Asian markets where dietary transitions and a rising middle class has led to an explosion in demand for pork and other meat products.

More than half of the world's pigs-approximately 476 million-are in China, and pork production is now so central to the Chinese diet, that the government has created a strategic pork reserve to accompany its strategic reserves of oil and grains

But for those just looking to enter agriculture based on the knowledge and enthusiasm of Jim Rogers, look no further than the Rogers International Commodity Agriculture ETN (NYSE: RJA).

The Index represents 20 agricultural commodity futures contracts, and is comprised of commodities consumed in the global economy. The index's largest allocations are dedicated to corn, wheat, cotton, and soybeans.

The index is poised to capture growth in the coming decade, as global demand is being predicated by emerged economies like Brazil and China.

No, you can't eat gold. But you can buy invest in a farm and capture profits as demand outpaces supply in the global agriculture markets.

If you’re one of the investors who got slammed as gold plummeted this week, don’t panic. We asked our trading expert Shah Gilani what’s next for the yellow metal in the following report: Investing in Gold: Here's What to Do Now

Source :http://moneymorning.com/2013/04/17/jim-rogers-prediction-on-gold-prices-was-only-half-of-the-story/

Money Morning/The Money Map Report

©2013 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201, Email: customerservice@moneymorning.com

Disclaimer: Nothing published by Money Morning should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investent advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication, or after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Money Morning should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Money Morning Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife