Marc Lichtenfeld writes: Gold is supposed to act as a safe haven from crisis and a hedge against inflation. But lately, it hasn’t been either.
You would think with the bombastic manchild leader in North Korea threatening nuclear Armageddon and the usual problems in the Middle East, investors would flock to gold. But gold fell 10% in two days.
Even after the news of the bombing at the Boston Marathon broke, gold continued to slide. That was the most surprising twist in the plot. An attack on American soil should send investors scurrying to gold. Instead they sold it.
This isn’t what’s “supposed” to happen.
Just the Facts, Ma’am
Gold may make investors feel better in times of crisis and financial uncertainty, but it’s hard to argue with the fact that it’s a volatile asset. Since hitting a high in October, the precious metal is down 23%.
That’s why I say if you really want to be sure you’re keeping pace with inflation and own assets that can survive a crisis… forget gold.
You should be looking at Perpetual Dividend Raisers – the stocks that raise their dividends every year.
I’m sure many of you are thinking, stocks safer than gold? That’s ridiculous.
But look at the numbers over the last 40 years, starting right after the U.S. dollar left the gold standard:
Since 1973, long-term investors who went with dividend-paying stocks outperformed the folks piling into gold. An investor who held the S&P 500 for 10 years made an average of 159.3%, while those holding gold earned 86.7%.
What do these numbers tell us? They tell us that over long periods of time, investors are better off holding stocks than gold.
(This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t have any gold in your portfolio. The Oxford Club‘s Investment Director Alexander Green recommends you keep 5% of your portfolio in precious metals. I agree. It’s important to be diversified.)
Best Way to Beat Inflation? Crisis?
Over the past 40 years, inflation has pushed prices higher.
Something that cost $100 in 1973 will cost $524 today. In contrast, $100 worth of gold in 1973 is now worth $1,481. However, $100 worth of the S&P 500 is now worth $1,931 (including dividends received).
So stocks win that battle. They have done a better job outpacing inflation.
As far as which asset is the best hedge against crisis, there are lots of data to test against. We’ve certainly had our share of rough times over the past 40 years.
Think about how many times the spit has hit the fan since the early ’70s – Vietnam, Watergate, high inflation, gas shortages, the Cold War, Iran-Contra, 9/11, the dot-com collapse, the war in Iraq, the financial crisis, etc.
And through it all… stocks have performed better than gold.
The good news for gold bugs is that during the years gold rose in value, the shiny metal was a better performer than stocks. And during gold’s down years, it lost less value. But, as the table shows, gold had almost as many down years as positive years.
That’s a problem, particularly if you’re using it as a hedge.
So what’s an investor to do?
Simple. Buy stocks that raise their dividends every year. These solid companies, such as Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) and Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB), not only have been paying dividends every year, but have raised them every year for decades.
Johnson & Johnson, which has boosted its dividend for 50 years in a row, raised it an average of 11.7% per year over the past 10 years. That kind of boost is more than enough to outpace inflation and increase your buying power.
And just as appealing, Kimberly-Clark’s average dividend hike was 9.5% per year over the past 10 years.
These are well-established companies that have been doing their thing for generations. Could they have a bad year or two in the future? Of course.
But I’ll side with history here and assume the companies will continue to grow their businesses over the next decade – and every year deliver more cash back to shareholders than they did the previous year.
And as we’ve seen, these types of stocks more than weather the storm if you have a long-term view.
Gold has made a lot of money for investors over the years. But stocks have made a whole lot more.
Remember that the next time there’s a crisis.
Editor’s Note: History may not repeat itself, but it rhymes. And many investors forget why gold tanked in the early 1980s – as inflation was rising.
The answer? Interest rates.
As rates were pushed into double-digits by the Fed to fight rising inflation, investors and traders fled en masse into government-backed, double-digit-yielding bonds, CDs and savings accounts. Why hold a ton of gold when you can earn double digits in a liquid savings account?
Sure, gold eventually rebounded – explosively. But that was decades later… Do you have that much time?
The other thing many people are missing is that in our new digital age, any big rate fluctuations are going to transpire much sooner (in a matter of minutes) and faster (as soon as June 12) than most people (and their portfolios) are ready for.
That’s why Marc has spent almost two years researching the best way to handle this game-changing shift in the markets. And he’s convinced it’s going to make or break millions of people’s retirement lives.
The perpetual dividend-raising stocks he mentions above are part of his unique strategy. But there’s another special kind of income investment that Marc predicts will reap rewards as high as 164% when rates begin to tick up. These same “spread banks,” as he calls them, will also pay out thousands of dollars in extra income each month.
To see all of Marc’s work, click here.
Copyright © 1999 - 2011 by The Oxford Club, L.L.C All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Investment U, Attn: Member Services , 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore, MD 21201 Email: CustomerService@InvestmentU.com
Disclaimer: Investment U Disclaimer: Nothing published by Investment U should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Investment U should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.
Investment U Archive
© 2005-2013 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.