Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Putin’s World: Why Russia’s Showdown with the West Will Worsen - John_Mauldin
2. Stocks Bull Market Grinds Bears into Dust, Is Santa Rally Sustainable? - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Gold and Silver 2015 Trend Forecasts, Prices to Go BOOM - Austin_Galt
4.Gold Price Golden Bottom? - Toby_Connor
5.Gold Price and Miners Soar on Huge Volume - P_Radomski_CFA
6.Stock Market and the Jaws of Life or Death? - Rambus_Chartology
7.Gold Price 2015 - EWI
8.Manipulated Stock Market Short Squeezes to Another All Time High - The China Syndrome - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Gold, Silver, Crude and S&P Ending Wedge Patterns - DeviantInvestor
10.Is the Gold And Silver Golden Rule Broken? - Michael_Noonan
Last 5 days
The Price Of Gold And The Art Of War - 18th Dec 14
Euro Succumbs to ECB QE Expectations and FOMC - 18th Dec 14
John Williams: A Downhill Run for the U.S. Dollar in 2015 - 18th Dec 14
Outrage at Taliban Islamic Fundamentalists Massacre of 132 Pakistani School Children in the Name of God - 18th Dec 14
How Inflation Changes Retirement Benefit Choices - 17th Dec 14
The Real Reason It's Tough to Beat the Stock Market - 17th Dec 14
Russian Currency Crisis and Debt Defaults Could Create Contagion in West - 17th Dec 14
How to Profit From Russia's Stock Market Crash - 17th Dec 14
Russia Crisis - If You Put Your Money in the Bank Will You Get it Back? - 17th Dec 14
Crude Oil Price Crash, U.S. Employment and Economic Growth - 17th Dec 14
Opposing Forces At Play In Gold and Silver Precious Metals Complex - 17th Dec 14
Wall Street Will Always Find An Excuse For Not Raising U.S. Interest Rates - 17th Dec 14
Torture, Terror And Elite Schizophrenia In The UK - 16th Dec 14
Eurozone Conflict Will Bring a Major Stocks Buying Opportunity - 16th Dec 14
Viewing Russia From the Inside - 16th Dec 14
Gold and Silver Stocks Bottom - Are We There Yet? - 16th Dec 14
The Financial Industry Pigmen Win Again - 16th Dec 14
Crude Oil Price Epic Blowout - 16th Dec 14
Asian Stocks Markets: Sand In The Gears Of The Bull Market - 16th Dec 14
U.S. Dollar Trend Forecast 2015 - Video - 16th Dec 14
Silver Price Bottom? - 15th Dec 14
Gold Price Base Building Bullish Pattern - 15th Dec 14
Stock Market Probable Pop-n-Crash Today - 15th Dec 14
Stock Market Time for a Bounce - 15th Dec 14
Stock Market Euphoria: The Mother of All Ponzi Schemes - 15th Dec 14
Gold - The Weight of Time as Trend - 15th Dec 14
U.S. Dollar Collapse? USD Index Trend Forecast 2015 - 14th Dec 14
The Rushing Stocks Bear Market and How to Prepare - 14th Dec 14
Gold and Silver Dreaming of a White Christmas - 14th Dec 14
Cyprus-style Bank Bail-ins to Take Deposits and Pensions - The Global Bankers' Coup - 13th Dec 14
How To Renounce Your US Citizenship And Become Stateless - 13th Dec 14
Stock Market Downtrend Underway - 13th Dec 14
Gold And Silver - Wall Street, aka United States, Pulls Off Another Destructive Coup - 13th Dec 14
U.S. Congress Has Guaranteed the Secular Stocks Bear Market is Not Over - 13th Dec 14
Gold and Silver Starting to Show Bullish Signs - 13th Dec 14
Arab Spring II is Coming Fast - The Unintended Consequences of Lower Oil Prices - 13th Dec 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Dramatic Stock Market Selloff

Silver Price and COT Data

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Apr 25, 2013 - 04:42 PM GMT

By: DeviantInvestor

Commodities

The Commitment of Traders data is published every Friday. It lists the reportable positions of the commercial and non-commercial traders for silver contracts on the COMEX.

STOP! Yes, I know
•The data is manipulated. The same people who brought us LIBOR, flash crashes, high frequency trading, and the most recent gold and silver crash are the people who report the data.


•Experienced traders like Jim Sinclair understand the inner workings of this data far better than I, and it is my impression that he is skeptical of the value of the COT data.

•The data is subject to revision, errors, and occasional changes in definitions.

•Not everyone in the world is honest in their reporting (really?), and the regulation and enforcement might be a bit lax (really?).
But, given the above, let’s look at the data and USE WHAT WE HAVE.

•First: Take the non-commercial category and net the longs and shorts. Call this the non-commercial net longs.

•Second: Take the commercial category and net the longs and shorts (longs minus shorts – may be negative). Call this the commercial net longs.

•Third: Subtract the commercial net longs from the non-commercial net longs. This provides a rough estimate of the difference in commitment to silver between those two broad groups of traders on the COMEX. So what? Is it valuable? Does it tell us anything useful about probable future price changes?

Examine the graph. The COT non-commercial net longs less the commercial net longs (in the legend as “net long”) are shown in red. Pay attention to the red circles where the “net long” drops below 50,000.


The price of silver (in dollars) since 2005 is shown. Note the black circles that roughly correspond to the red circles. Each red circle (low in “net long”) was a buying opportunity, and silver subsequently rose in price. Some were excellent long-term opportunities, such as September 2005, August 2007, October 2008, and April 2009. Others, such as July 2011, October 2011, December 2011, and June 2012, were good but short-lived buying opportunities.

Conclusions
In spite of the supposed manipulation and distortion in the data, it does have some value indicating future price direction.

The data is better at picking price bottoms than tops. Do NOT trade using this data alone. NOW looks like a price bottom.

The data will probably NOT tell you if the current “bottom” is one in a series of lower lows in a bear market or if it is a multi-year bottom and the beginning of a new bull market.

My Opinion
This current bottom is more like the bottom in 2008 after that 55% washout than any other bottom in the past three decades. I expect that now is a significant bottom, and we will see substantially higher prices over the next several months and several years. Unfortunately, I also expected the same after the June 2012 bottom. So, we’ll wait and see… In the meantime, go back and review the fundamental case for silver and gold.

Read: Why Buy Silver? and Why Buy Gold?

GE Christenson
aka Deviant Investor

If you would like to be updated on new blog posts, please subscribe to my RSS Feed or e-mail

© 2013 Copyright Deviant Investor - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014