Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Amazon AMZN Stock PRIMEDAY SALE! Trend Analysis - 20th Apr 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: You May Not Believe My 2021 Targets - 20th Apr 21
Stock Market Phase Two Projection - 20th Apr 21
Are Precious Metals & Miners Starting A New Longer-Term Bullish Trend? - 20th Apr 21
Inflation: First the Gain, Then the Pain… - 20th Apr 21
8 Stock Market Indicators in 1: Here's the Message of the Panic/Euphoria Model - 19th Apr 21
Gold - You Can Win a Battle, but Still Lose the War - 19th Apr 21
Will Interest Rates Rally Further Push Gold Price Down? - 19th Apr 21
Gold Fireworks Doubt the Official Inflation Story - 19th Apr 21
YuanPay Team Discuss The Process Of Crypto Diversification - 19th Apr 21
Central Banks May Ramp Up Gold Buying - 18th Apr 21
How to Get Rid of Driveway Weeds With Just WATER! 6 Months later NO Weeds, Ultimate Killer! - 18th Apr 21
State of the European Markets - DAX, FTSE, CAC, AEX, SMI, IBEX 35, S&P/MIB, Euro Stoxx 50, RTS - 18th Apr 21
Einvestment Fund: What You Need To Know About Investments - 18th Apr 21
Google Alphabet (GOOG) AI Deep Mind Stock Trend Analysis - 17th Apr 21
Stocks and Bonds Inflationary Slingshot - 17th Apr 21
Best Smartphone Selfie Stick Tripod Review by ATUMTEK Works with Samsung Galaxy and Iphone - 17th Apr 21
How to Give Budgie's First Bath | Easy Budgie Bathing and Water Training with Lettuce - 17th Apr 21
Record-breaking Decrease in New Passenger Vehicle Sale in Europe - 17th Apr 21
US Stocks Climb A “Wall Of Worry” To New Highs - 16th Apr 21
Gold’s Singular Role - 16th Apr 21
See what Anatomy of a Bursting Market Bubble looks like - 16th Apr 21
Many Stock Market Sectors Are Primed For Another Breakout Rally – Are You? - 16th Apr 21
What Skyrocketing US Home Prices Say About Inflation - 16th Apr 21
Still a Bullish Fever in Stocks? - 16th Apr 21
Trying to Buy Coinbase Stock on IPO Day - Institutional Investors Freeze out Retail Investors - 15th Apr 21
Stocks or Gold – Which Is in the Catbird Seat? - 15th Apr 21
Time For A Stock Market Melt-Up - 15th Apr 21
Stocks Bull Market Progression Now Shows Base Metal Strength - 15th Apr 21
AI Tech Stocks Buy Ratings, Levels and Valuations - 14th Apr 21
Easy 10% to 15% Overclock for 5600x, 5900x, 5950x Using AMD Ryzen Master Precision Boost Overdrive - 14th Apr 21
The Current Cannabis Sector Rally Is Pointing To Another Breakout - 14th Apr 21
U.S. Dollar Junk Bond Market The Easiest Money in History - 14th Apr 21
The SPY Is Nearing Resistance @ $410… What Is Next? - 14th Apr 21
The Curious Stock Market Staircase Rally - 14th Apr 21
Stocks are Heating Up - 14th Apr 21
Two Methods in Calculating For R&D Tax Credits - 14th Apr 21
Stock Market Minor Correction Due - 13th Apr 21
How to Feed Budgies Cucumbers - Best Vegetables Feeding for the First Time, Parakeet Care UK - 13th Apr 21
Biggest Inflation Threat in 40 Years Looms over Markets - 13th Apr 21
How to Get Rich with the Pareto Distribution - Tesco Example - 13th Apr 21
Litecoin and Bitcoin-Which Is Better? - 13th Apr 21
The Major Advantages Of Getting Your PhD Online - 12th Apr 21
Covid-19 Pandemic Current State for UK, US, Europe, Brazil Vaccinations vs Lockdown's Third Wave - 12th Apr 21
Why These Stock Market Indicators Should Grab Your Full Attention - 12th Apr 21
Rising Debt Means a Weaker US Dollar - 12th Apr 21
Another Gold Stocks Upleg - 12th Apr 21
AMD The ZEN Tech Stock - 12th Apr 21
Overclockers UK Build Quality - Why Glue Fan to CPU Heat sink Instead of Using Supplied Clips? - 12th Apr 21 -
What are the Key Capabilities You Should Look for in Fleet Management Software? - 12th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Gold? - 12th Apr 21
UK Covd-19 FREE Lateral Flow Self Testing Kits How Use for the First Time at Home - 10th Apr 21
NVIDIA Stock ARMED and Dangeorus! - 10th Apr 21
The History of Bitcoin Hard Forks - 10th Apr 21
Gold Mining Stocks: A House Built on Shaky Ground - 9th Apr 21
Stock Market On the Verge of a Pullback - 9th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Unlimited? - 9th Apr 21
Most Money Managers Gamble With Your Money - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 Evolving Trends For Mobile Casinos - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Investing 2021 Analysis - 8th Apr 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 - Crash or Continuing Bull Run? - 8th Apr 21
Don’t Be Fooled by the Stock Market Rally - 8th Apr 21
Gold and Latin: Twin Pillars of Western Rejuvenation - 8th Apr 21
Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns – Which ETFs Will Benefit? Part II - 8th Apr 21
You're invited: Spot the Next BIG Move in Oil, Gas, Energy ETFs - 8th Apr 21
Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr US Dollar is Back - 8th Apr 21
Stock Market New S&P 500 Highs or Metals Rising? - 8th Apr 21
Microsoft AI Azure Cloud Computing Driving Tech Giant Profits - 7th Apr 21
Amazon Tech Stock PRIMEDAY SALE- 7th Apr 21
The US has Metals Problem - Lithium, Graphite, Copper, Nickel Supplies - 7th Apr 21
Yes, the Fed Will Cover Biden’s $4 Trillion Deficit - 7th Apr 21
S&P 500 Fireworks and Gold Going Stronger - 7th Apr 21
Stock Market Perceived Vs. Actual Risks: The Key To Success - 7th Apr 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Credit Crisis The Problem The Solution

Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008 Mar 23, 2008 - 03:26 AM GMT

By: Fake_Ben

Interest-Rates Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFirst, we must understand the problem, which is fractional banking. The problem with fractional banking is that cash ALWAYS has to be less valuable than other alternatives. Otherwise, there is an immediate desire to deleverage (to get into cash), and the whole interconnected banking system, with all its counterparty risk, comes crashing down. We are seeing this problem now.


Because raising interest rates makes cash more valuable, the system is inherently biased towards needing and encouraging lower and lower rates. Look at the trend in interest rates ever since Volcker left office: it's down, down, down, a touch up, down, down, a touch up, down, down, down. 

The deleveraging problem could have happened in 1995 (the year Greenspan uttered the words “irrational exuberance”), 1998 (Long-Term Capital, the Russian debt crisis), 2000 (the dot-com bust), or many other times in recent history. That is why the Fed has been running scared for so long. For two decades, the Fed and government have fought deleveraging by encouraging more leverage (mostly by lower interest rates, but also by deregulation, the allowance of off-balance sheet vehicles and the overnight sweeping of checking account, etc.).

However, the leverage can't go on forever. At a certain point, the leverage becomes ludicrous. The excess credit drives asset prices up to a point where the earnings on these assets do not justify the risk of acquiring them (3% rental yield for an apartment whose value is supported by a clearly overleveraged banking sector???). You know something is wrong when the most respected banks are 32 times leveraged (does that even count all the off-balance sheet agreements, the derivates, and the effects from any mark-downs on the asset side???).

So basically, as I pointed out in August, the U.S. is the subprime lender of the world (along with Europe!). Our entire banking system was then and is now obviously bankrupt.

When an entire banking system is bankrupt there are two options:

1) Preserve the value of the currency and let the banking system crumble. Honor contracts and force bankruptcies. Purge the system of its excesses through a massive depression.

DOWNSIDE: Massive unemployment and a serious contraction in the economy.

UPSIDE: Faith in the currency is maintained, the banking system is cleansed, and many decades of healthy, long-term economic growth can be built upon a solid foundation. [NOTE: Your average economist erroneously believes that the Fed's inaction during the Depression was the problem. The real problem, as it always is, was the Fed's previous allowance in the 1920s of excessive credit growth. Because of this lack of understanding, your average economist is not inclined to ascribe any long-term benefit to the Fed's purging the system of its excesses.]

2) Change the rules of the game. Have an activist government try to prevent bankruptcies. There are many ways to change the rules of the game: The Fed can start to monetize and retire assets, such as mortgages, corporate debt, etc. Alternatively, the U.S. government can have the Fed monetize its debt, and use the new money for public works programs or simply send the money directly to citizens. Such a process of rules changing will be highly contentious because it will favor certain segments of society over others. It will be extremely political. [For example, if Congress sends checks directly to people, the banking system will cry: inflation. If the Fed recapitalizes banks with cash, the people will cry: bailout].

DOWNSIDE:A loss of faith in the currency, especially among foreigners, who hold the currency (and its implied liabilities) but do not get the benefits associated with monetization (the money is only given to U.S. citizens or U.S. entities). Given that 70% of the entire world's central bank reserves are in dollars, such a loss of faith could have dramatic consequences. All the benefits the U.S. received from decades of printing U.S. dollars and sending them abroad for goods could quickly reverse, and we could see trillions of U.S. dollars come home, quickly diluting their value and causing hyperinflation and a run by everyone (including U.S. citizens) into anything but U.S. dollars.

UPSIDE: Although uncertain, this option is thought to be more likely to preserve economic growth and employment. It is considered to be less painful.

Given that our national psyche was so scarred by the Great Depression (Option 1), I fully expect our politicians to go for Option 2. It will be interesting to see if Option 2 works out any better. It certainly did not for Europe before World War II, which is why their central bank is taking such a divergent approach.

Unfortunately, there is no free lunch. Excessive credit and leveraged were not only allowed to occur, but were the explicit policy of our government. Now we must choose a way to deleverage: either by a recession or by inflation. The trick is to deleverage in such a way that neither foreigners nor citizens lose faith in the system. Can that be done? We shall soon find out! It's going to be a wild ride.

Given that we are on the inevitable path to changing the rules of the game (Optioin 2), my proposed solution is that it should be done in a clear, unified, upfront and immediate manner. We need to get people to understand the problem and solution quickly. If it is done in piecemeal fashion, markets will gyrate wildly as they have been doing (“We're headed for a major recession, sell everything” one day, followed by “The Fed will sink the dollar to prevent recession, go to commodities and stocks” the next day). Such wild gyrations are likely to cause a loss of faith in the system (“It is rigged,” “It's impossible to make money without knowing the next move out of Washington.”) Every time a minor solution is proposed, the market rallies sharply. But the market soon realizes the solution is not working and goes back downward, forcing politicians to come up with yet another solution. Given the enormity of the problem, the solution should be comprehensive from the start.

The real question to answer is: to whom does the new money the government will create go first? The banking sector or the people? A select group of people or all people? My take is that the only way to put together as comprehensive a deal as is needed is to be totally fair. Send each and every American, regardless of age, indebtedness, health, or any other measure, a check for $30,000. It's a one-time thing. Get the Fed to monetize the Federal government debt that will be created to issue the checks.

The Federal debt should have an infinite term and 0% interest (meaning it will always be on the government books, but never needs to be repaid). Will such a plan hurt the dollar? Probably. But maybe not. Will it be inflationary? Yes, but a lot of the money will be used to pay off debt, which will help deleverage the banking system and decrease money supply. Basically, what you are talking about is a plan to repartition the assets of a bankrupt banking sector in as painless a way as possible. But you are doing it in a creative, comprehensive, and quick manner, without having to run everything through the bankruptcy process.

I doubt such a plan would get very far, especially as all the people of Wall Street and all the establishment economists would fight it (mainly because it would be an equitable distribution of the value held by the banks, and it would --- in relative terms --- disempower the rich and make those less fortunate less beholden). However, it might be the only option for the banking class, and the best way to avoid a total collapse of the system. Through this solution, the banking sector may emerge better off than other alternatives.

While my solution is highly imperfect, I do believe it is the least worst compared to others. And it certainly is the most just.

By Charles Zentay
http:// www.FakeBen.com

FakeBen is a blog to monitor the Fed and its actions and encourage community participation. At FakeBen, we believe that the Fed policy of the last two decades has created a credit bubble as large as that created in the 1920s. This bubble will lead to either inflation, a recession, or both.

We believe that the Fed's policy of lowering interest rates to encourage more credit creation is misguided, will eventually lead to 0% interest rates, and will not solve the long-term problem, which is too much credit relative to GDP.

Copyright © 2008 by Charles Zentay. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Do your own due diligence.

Fake Ben Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Jeff
26 Sep 08, 15:31
using retirement accounts to solve credit crisis

About your idea of $30,000 for each person from the fed... what if the fed allowed anyone to remove any amount of tax-deferred retirement account (e.g. 401K), as long as they immediately use it to pay off debt.

Wouldn't this also accomplish similar positive ends?


bega
11 Oct 08, 23:50
Solution to recession

There is a good direction towards a long-term solution to this problem. Go to :http://parthardas.googlepages.com/financialmeltdowninamerica. It talks about the solution in US govt.'s targeted spending in national asset creation. happy reading.



04 Nov 08, 16:57
us bailout

Do you have any idea how much it would cost to supply the entire U.S. population with 30,000 dollars each?


Bobbie
30 Dec 08, 15:03
People helping each other

Agreed with changing the rules of the game and letting the banking industry crumble (or at least redefine itself).

I just found out about this idea on change.org:

http://www.change.org/ideas/view/solving_the_credit_crisis_from_the_bottom_up

Basically is people helping each other by lending money without intermediaries. Pretty neat idea.


Jerry Baldy
21 Aug 09, 21:25
Credit Crisis partial solution

February 23, 2009

Welcome to "A Better Tomorrow". This blog will provide an evolving discussion of the macro economic crisis we in America face today. We will define the crisis in general terms and we will suggest solutions as the main platform of the blog, we will also make comments on responses to the situation in the mainstream press at times and we will request reader input into this page in all areas of discussion. If at any time you wish to contact me, please feel free (my name is Jerry Baldy and my e-mail is gbaldy@cox.net.

Let us begin

The situation we have is an economy that produces approximately 11 Trillion dollars annually of GDP and has approximately 70 Trillion dollars in debt and growing (about 10 trillion already spent (accumulated budget deficits) and about 60 trillion promised in the form of Baby Boomer Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid obligations. There is no way the economy itself can support 70 Trillion dollars of Debt. In addition, the economy presently is in a severe contraction due to both governmental and banking mismanagement and corruption. This current set of circumstances has resulted in HUGE government bailouts (700 Billion Tarp, Paulson/Bush banking system bailout and 797 Billion Obama economic stimulus package and 500 billion for current budgetary considerations).Thus adding 2 Trillion to the 70 trillion aforementioned with more to come.

A COMMENT

Considering the circumstances there will be some appetite for future Treasury issuances in the short run and mid term (the additional two Trillion referred to above). But the longer range appetites ( reserves for Baby Boomer obligations of Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare) for U. S. Treasuries are more questionable and undoubtedly will be more, much more, expensive with yields paid by American taxpayers much higher and revenues received by American tax payers much lower. At some point perhaps there will be a currency devaluation. I never thought I would say that. Unless we devise a plan that will satisfy world markets that Americans can successfully address this Financial Crisis and the massive inflation that could follow in a sustainable way, very unpleasant consequences will occur. We need a plan that is based in reality not the program we are engaged in now, IT WON’T WORK.

Suggested Partial Solution

Fed/Treasury Partnership &

Direct Fed/Treasury Economic Stimulation:

A successful solution will require an understanding that a significant Federal Reserve and Treasury Department partnership is mandatory (a Keysian/Friedman partnership).

This Partnership is critical because the economy is fragile and continues to weaken and cannot grow us out of this set of circumstances. Further, confidence has been essentially lost in all governmental institutions and elected representatives with the possible exception of the Fed and Treasury.

The Treasury Department ( with Tim Giethner’s leadership along with Larry Summers and Paul Volker’s experience and intellectual horsepower) teamed with the Federal Reserve (with Ben Bernenke at the helm) have the human resources and balance sheets to lead us back to the path of prosperity. The Feds balance sheet should be used in a manner that maximizes monetary policy while utilizing the Treasury department as a partner temporarily until this Crisis has been resolved and a sustainable Economic policy is in place.

An example of this would be for the Federal Reserve Bank and the Treasury Department to partner. This partnership would be represented by a model that consists of equal contributions of 30 year U.S. Treasury Bonds Principle and Interest. These contributions would be the engine of the partnership supporting troubled commercial banks loan activity. The partnership would serve as a guarantor of the new loan activity for qualified banks and would be called the Fed/Treasury Partnership. The Fed/Treasury Partnership would have two functions the first would consist of contributed Treasury bond principle for use in stabilizing troubled banks and the second would be contributed Treasury Bond interest used for other Fed/Treasury purposes (discussed later). For the first part of the Fed/Treasury Partnership to be successful the bank in question must be free of toxic assets. To accomplish this, the troubled bank would quarantine all of its toxic paper. Proceeds from toxic paper would be used as a further cash infusion and/or a set aside for additional capital requirements into the bank. The troubled mortgage/other assets themselves would be would be left unadjusted, no Mark to Market valuations. Toxic asset valuations would remain at their cost basis on the banks books and would be represented on the balance sheet as troubled assets to be worked out. Asset valuation would take place at a more tranquil time and environment and be market driven. With this treatment of toxic assets completed a clean bank emerges to work with.

With the bank now clean of toxic asset effects the Fed and Treasury representatives can determine and guarantee (thru the Principle portion of the Fed/Treasury Partnership contribution) a sufficient amount of new loan activity to obtain stability and/or profitability. This will be expensive as the Partnership is guaranteeing virtually all new loans and will do so for a sufficient amount of time for bank recovery. Management of the partnership model “Principle Portion” should be managed by Federal Reserve Bank representatives. By the end of the Fed/Treasury Partnership intervention the bank will be profitable and in a better position to dispose of toxic assets in a reasonable market driven fashion. The problem banks will survive. The toxic assets will be sold in the free market. The bank will finally be removed from the Fed/Treasury Partnership umbrella to lend again and prosper. This process can and should be used in a Federal Reserve Bank Partnership with foreign Central Banks and /or appropriate foreign government agencies. This model can be very useful as global portal linkage in addressing the global aspects of the financial crisis.

The Interest Portion of the Fed/Treasury partnership model will be used to support strong banks (banks not suffering from toxic assets) to generate a more balanced and healthier overall banking system. Management of the interest portion of the partnership model should also be managed by Federal Reserve Bank representatives. The result of the interest portion of the Fed /Treasury partnership model would be to effectively expand strong banks product lines and profitability. This is accomplished by the Fed/Treasury partnership utilizing the model's on-going revenue stream (interest portion of the model) to underwrite new business Loan programs or Credit Card programs, asset purchase programs and other product line expansion that emerge as part of recovery. Other Product line expansion possibilities from the Fed/Treasury partnership on-going revenue stream (interest portion of the Fed/Treasury model) could be to allow mortgage warehouse lines for Jumbo’s mortgages, non-conforming mortgage loans or to purchase asset backed securities. Further product line expansions would include supporting Municipal Bond issuances nation wide and finally support our shadow lending industry (very important as this industry provides approximately 45% of all loan activity in the country). These and many other potential partnership activities would have the beneficial effects of generating confidence and attracting private capital back to the Capital Markets at an efficient cost basis.

These suggestions would begin the credit thawing process and would have a calming effect on financial markets. In addition to previously mentioned benefits of using the Fed/Treasury Partnership another important use is the Fed/Treasury Partnership is supporting Bank to Bank Lending. This could be a very, very important contribution of the Fed/Treasury partnership.

In addition to freeing up Credit Markets, instilling Investor confidence and reinvigorating asset securitization and eliminating the need for immediate Mark to Market accounting for toxic assets and reinstituting a secondary market for non-conforming mortgage loans (Jumbo’s and other collateralizations) and supporting Bank to bank lending while supporting the Municipal bond markets, Corporate Debt Market fluidity and reinvigorating the Shadow Lending Industry the model can be modified to stimulate the lower economy directly.

Direct Fed/Treasury Economic Stimulation:

Direct Fed/Treasury Economic Stimulation Program will be similar to the Fed/Treasury Partnership (described above). Both the Fed and Treasury will contribute 50% of partnership requirements into a model. These contributions will consist of both the Treasury and Fed contributing 30 Yr. U.S. Treasury Bonds, Principle and Interest into the model. However, one difference is that this stimulus would go directly to the lower economy and augment the work of the Fed/Treasury partnership in stabilizing and balancing the banking system.

Another difference is only in Interest Portion proceeds of the model are used as the program guarantee. The Principle Portion of the model is NEVER used. A further difference is this program is a for profit program for the Federal reserve bank. A fee structure, payment schedule and program time line will be established as part of program architecture with the Treasury managing the program.

One example of program use would be for the Direct Fed/Treasury Economic Stimulation Program to directly guarantee toxic loans sitting on troubled commercial banks books that have been quarantined. This would be a great help to the loan workout process as well as the banks mark to market problems. In addition, loans made by thrift banks that participate in the national Jumbo and/or non-conforming mortgage program financed by the Fed/Treasury Partnership (referenced above). This guarantee would encourage thrift institutions (thru stimulus program guarantees) to provide refinance and purchase credit to individual borrowers while the Fed/Treasury partnership encourages commercial banks to provide additional warehouse lines to thrift institutions. This approach would have the effect of creating seamless financing available for housing purchases and mortgage refinance activity, creating greater confidence and jobs in the mortgage, Construction, Real Estate and related service industries. Finally, this stimulus would minimize troubled bank losses of quarantined assets and help to stabilize the countries Real Estate price structure.

Another example would be for the Direct Fed/Treasury Economic Stimulation Program to directly subsidize small and medium size commercial (FDIC) banks not involved in toxic asset activity through direct loan guarantee programs designed for specific industries as determined by the treasury and Fed. This would make credit more available to a variety of small, medium and large businesses while creating confidence and jobs. Further, this program could be expanded to direct commerce lending with the amount, nature and duration of support determined by an industries or local economies as needed. In total the Direct Fed/Fed Treasury Stimulus would maximize the work of the Fed/Treasury partnership while supporting the growth of small business. The combination of these two initiatives is intended to augment current fiscal and monetary policy while lending flexibility to the crisis management plan now in place.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules