Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Will UK Interest Rate Rises Crash House Prices? - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Full on Crash Alert for Major World Stock Markets... - Clive_Maund
3.Gold And Silver Market Bottoming? Big Rally Imminent? Reality Check Says NO - Michael_Noonan
4.The Coming Silver Price Rally Will Outperform All Previous Ones - Hubert_Moolman
5.The Trigger For The Upcoming Stock Crash - Harry_Dent
6.Imploding Department Store Results - James_Quinn
7.Dr. Copper is Speaking, are you Listening? ... - Rambus_Chartology
8.Pandemonium in the Stock Market, Dow falls 1,000 points in a week - EWI
9.Asia's Whirling Dervish of Devaluations Has Encircled China's Exports - Keith_Hilden
10.China Weakens the Yuan; Rattles Global Stock and Financial Markets - Gary_Dorsch
Last 5 days
Oil Stocks - Interim or Major Reversal? - 5th Sept 15
Establishment Survey +173K Jobs, Private Jobs +140,000; U.S. Unemployment Rate 5.1% - 5th Sept 15
Whipsaw the Stock Market Right Back With These Three Tech Plays - 5th Sept 15
Could a President Trump Put People Back to Work and Help the U.S. Dollar? - 5th Sept 15
Sturgeon Plays Politics with Syrian Refugee's, Solution Settle Migrants in Hungary and Poland - 5th Sept 15
Jeremy Corbyn’s “Quantitative Easing for People”: UK Labour Frontrunner’s Controversial Proposal - 4th Sept 15
Stock Market Third Wave - Elliott Waves Point to Market Probabilities - 4th Sept 15
Another Hysterically False BLS US Unemployment Report - 4th Sept 15
Bill Gross: Jobs Report Means ‘Fifty-Fifty’ Chance of Fed Sept Interest Rate Move - 4th Sept 15
Will The Government Confiscate Your Gold? - 4th Sept 15
Gold-Silver Ratio in Gear - 4th Sept 15
The Real Threat from China's Stock Market Crash - 4th Sept 15
The Stocks Bear Market Everyone Saw Coming - 4th Sept 15
Why September’s Stock Market Volatility Is a Huge Opportunity for Options Traders - 4th Sept 15
What IF Gold is Just in a Great Big Bull Consolidation Pattern ? - 4th Sept 15
This Stock Market VIX Chart Should Blow Your Mind - 3rd Sept 15
Eurodystopia: A Future Divided - 3rd Sept 15
Stock Market Prepares for the Next Decline - 3rd Sept 15
Europe Rethinks the Schengen Agreement - 3rd Sept 15
BP Oil Company Moves past Mistakes But Still Feeling Price Pinch - 3rd Sept 15
EU Migration Crisis and Population Density, Why Cameron is Right, England Really is Full - 3rd Sept 15
Stock Market Return to Crisis: Things Keep Getting Worse - 3rd Sept 15
Dow Theory Stock Market Sell Signal Examined - 3rd Sept 15
How OPEC’s Attempt to Save Face Affects the Crude Oil Market - 3rd Sept 15
Crude Oil Price Forecast 2015 and 2016 - Video - 3rd Sept 15
The Real Threat from China’s Stock Market Crash - 2nd Sept 15
How Our “Mixed Economy” Created These Mixed-Up Markets - 2nd Sept 15
'Gravity' Is Returning to Stocks and Bond Markets - 2nd Sept 15
OPEC Divorce And Self-Destruction Thanks To Saudi Crude Oil Strategy? - 1st Sept 15
The Beginning Of A New Financial / Stock Market Cycle - 1st Sept 15
Three Things Every Master Trader Knows About Trading Options - 1st Sept 15
Chinese Yuan Revolution? - 1st Sept 15
Take Advantage of Record-High Auto Sales… Before This Bubble Bursts - 1st Sept 15
Pondering Hitler's Legacy - 1st Sept 15
Mainstream Media Goes Berserk - 1st Sept 15
Your Decisive Stock Market Plan to Follow Whilst Most Investors Shiver With Fear - 1st Sept 15
Are There Stock and Financial Markets Investing Opportunities For The Remainder Of 2015 - 1st Sept 15
Crude Oil Price Forecast 2015 and 2016 - 1st Sept 15
REPO Window Hidden $Trillion QE Monthly Volume - 31st Aug 15
Silver and Warnings From Exponential Markets - 31st Aug 15
Stock Market Calls Fed’s Bluff - 31st Aug 15
Why Some ETFs Led the Stock Markets Down Last Week - 31st Aug 15
Stock Market Collapse - Take The Opportunity To Bail Before It’s Too Late! - 31st Aug 15
The Most Important Market Chart on The Planet - 31st Aug 15
Stock Market 50% Retracement - 31st Aug 15
Stock Market Crash Red Alert for 2nd Downwave... - 31st Aug 15
Independant Scotland 1 Year on, UK Civil War If the SNP Fanatics Had Succeeded - 30th Aug 15
Gold’s 7 Point Broadening Top - 30th Aug 15
The Day the Stock Market Shook the Earth: Takeaways From the Dow’s 1,000-Point Drop - 30th Aug 15
Gold Price Rally Marked by Short Covering - 30th Aug 15
Aging Stocks Bull Market - 29th Aug 15
Economic Destabilization, Financial Meltdown and the Rigging of the Shanghai Stock Market? - 29th Aug 15
The Stocks You Should Be Buying After the Market Drop - 29th Aug 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Global Stocks Slide

Gold Price Could Go to $700 or $3000

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Jun 24, 2013 - 03:36 PM GMT

By: WavePatternTraders

Commodities

That's the question that Gold traders and investors are asking themselves.

Gold has now reached a climax point that long term traders get to really find out if Gold is still in a bull market or finally in a long term bear market.

No matter how you look at it, Gold has been in a bear market for the past few years, whilst long term you could argue its still in an up trend, I think the decision about the direction of Gold being in a long term bull trend is about to be decided shortly.


In my opinion Gold going to $700 or $3000 will come from this area $1250-1300.

Let's face it, unless you have been living under a rock or something the funnymental guys have been completely ripped apart in their thesis that printing money equals Gold going higher.

But rather than face the choice of exiting long side positions at a loss they have made the classic trade mistake of adding to positions and doubling down, (trading mistake 101) and then praying that their thesis eventually works out, so much for the funnymentals, then rather admit they got it wrong, they come out with the Gold conspiracy stories about the bank cartels smashing it lower.

I am not suggesting there is not any corruption in the markets, but the fact that we trade price is all we need to know, as no matter if a market goes up or down, the trader/investor that understands this concept can take advantage of the markets.

Even if being short is a hedge against your physical long positions, it's got to be better than trying to talk a market higher and following a bunch of gold investors that have been caught long and big time loosing $$. Patterns will help decide entry and exits points in a market, NOT the funnymentals.

I think it's about time Gold bulls owned up to the fact they got their thesis wrong.

But I know they won't ever admit that, as that's going against any fundamental principle.

The dark side of technical analysis is always wrong? Or is it?

I hope readers of this article finally see the light and come over to the dark side and use technical analysis for your trading and investing, the fundamentals have no part in my trading ideas and nether should it be in yours.

Up or down it really should not make any difference, as long as you have access to take advantage of price action, making $$ is the basic concept of why we trade.

Getting back to the ideas.

Bull Case

The market needs to make a stand here and the bulls need to step up, or the market is in serious trouble and the long term trend is about to be confirmed as being broken.

I was initially looking for a pullback to around the $1500-1550 area, but that "take down" or whatever it was called, clearly decided that there was something else on the agenda. As I suspected it was in wave 4, as soon as the market broke down under $1550, the 38.2% retracement came into focus around $1450, but the market could not stop there as the selling exacerbated and it now sits at a point where this "supposed" wave 4 needs to stop and reverse.

The ideal target pullback for a 4th wave is a 38.2% retracement of wave 3, so that's around the $1450, but the fact it's now hitting the 50% retracement of wave 3, its now at the limits of what I consider of an acceptable 4th wave.

The book says wave 4 should not overlap with the top of wave 1, so technically that could come back to test the 2008 highs around $1040, but I don't consider the market to be in a 4th wave when it tends to exceeds more than 50% of a 3rd wave. So that area is $1300, which is why this area is important.

A breakdown or even failure to get back above $1400, would suggest the market is in serious trouble and the bull market is dead and targets of sub $1000 towards $700 will be seen over the coming months/years.

So far it's a 3 wave decline which is ok for now for the bull case, but if this area around $1300 does not hold, then it's likely to see much much lower and I am looking for well under $1000, so another 40-50% from current levels, if the bear case gets confirmed.

Bear Case

The bear case suggests the market is about to start to accelerate lower in what Elliotticians call a "3rd of 3rd", so we are unlikely to see a strong break above $1400-1425 and any bounce will be corrective and more downside is expected.

The good point the bears have is price has tried on a few occasions to get above $1425 and failed and whilst its under that area the bears are clearly in control, whilst the market can see small bounces and even potentially back test of $1425, the technical's are suggesting the trend is strong and likely to move lower.

The fact that we have not seen a strong reversal is not a good sign for the bulls.

Both ideas really suggest a bounce from the current levels as it appears short term there is a triangle, which I suspect it's a 4th wave of either idea, so the next bounce will confirm which idea long term traders need to be following.

I will say no matter what your bias is, price is the final arbiter and traders and investors that fail to respect that will be the ones getting hurt. If they have not been run over already.

As for me, I simply trade what I see, it's very easy if you remain biased to what price action suggests.

No need for any funnymentals just price and patterns.

Elliott Wave in the right makes sense

Until next time

Have a profitable week ahead.

Click here to become a member

You can also follow us on twitter

What do we offer?

Short and long term analysis on US and European markets, various major FX pairs, commodities from Gold and silver to markets like natural gas.

Daily analysis on where I think the market is going with key support and resistance areas, we move and adjust as the market adjusts.

A chat room where members can discuss ideas with me or other members.

Members get to know who is moving the markets in the S&P pits*

*I have permission to post comments from the audio I hear from the S&P pits.

If you looking for quality analysis from someone that actually looks at multiple charts and works hard at providing members information to stay on the right side of the trends and making $$$, why not give the site a trial.

If any of the readers want to see this article in a PDF format.

Please send an e-mail to Enquires@wavepatterntraders.com

Please put in the header PDF, or make it known that you want to be added to the mailing list for any future articles.

Or if you have any questions about becoming a member, please use the email address above.

If you like what you see, or want to see more of my work, then please sign up for the 4 week trial.

This article is just a small portion of the markets I follow.

I cover many markets, from FX to US equities, right the way through to commodities.

If I have the data I am more than willing to offer requests to members.

Currently new members can sign up for a 4 week free trial to test drive the site, and see if my work can help in your trading and if it meets your requirements.

If you don't like what you see, then drop me an email within the 1st 4 weeks from when you join, and ask for a no questions refund.

You simply have nothing to lose.

By Jason Soni AKA Nouf

© 2013 Copyright Jason Soni AKA Nouf - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

WavePatternTraders Archive

© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History