Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
UKIP No Longer About BrExit, Becomes BNP 2.0, Muslim Hate Party - 21st Mar 19
A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security - 20th Mar 19
The Secret to Funding a Green New Deal - 20th Mar 19
Vietnam, Part I: Colonialism and National Liberation - 20th Mar 19
Will the Fed Cut its Interest Rate Forecast, Pushing Gold Higher? - 20th Mar 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19
Tommy Robinson Looks Set to Become New UKIP Leader - 16th Mar 19
Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - 16th Mar 19
Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult - 16th Mar 19
UKIP Brexit Facebook Groups Reveling in the New Zealand Terror Attacks Blaming Muslim Victims - 16th Mar 19
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index - 16th Mar 19
Islamophobic Hate Preachers Tommy Robinson and Katie Hopkins have Killed UKIP and Brexit - 16th Mar 19
Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally - 15th Mar 19
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 - 15th Mar 19
Setting up a Business Just Got Easier - 15th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video - 15th Mar 19
Gold Warning - Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - Part 1 - 15th Mar 19
UK Weather SHOCK - Trees Dropping Branches onto Cars in Stormy Winds - Sheffield - 15th Mar 19
Best Time to Trade Forex - 15th Mar 19
Why the Green New Deal Will Send Uranium Price Through the Roof - 14th Mar 19
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? - 14th Mar 19
US Conservatism - 14th Mar 19
Gold in the Age of High-speed Electronic Trading - 14th Mar 19
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - 14th Mar 19
Why Walmart Will Crush Amazon - 14th Mar 19
2019 Economic Predictions - 14th Mar 19
Tax Avoidance Bills Sent to Thousands of Workers - 14th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

Stock Market Uptrend May Have Topped

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Aug 10, 2013 - 06:16 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro


The week started off with a gap down on Monday, rallied back to within one point of the uptrend high, and then did not recover for the rest of the week. Disappointing after last week suggested some more upside potential. For the week the SPX/DOW were -1.30%, the NDX/NAZ were -0.80%, and the DJ World index lost 0.4%. Economic reports for the week had a slight positive bias. On the uptick: ISM services, the WLEI, the monetary base, and the trade deficit improved. On the downtick: consumer credit, wholesale inventories and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week, a busy one, will include Industrial production, Retail sales, the CPI/PPI, reports on Housing and Options expiration. Best to your week.

LONG TERM: bull market

When the Intermediate wave v uptrend began in June at SPX 1560 we expected one of two scenarios to unfold. First, if it was short lived and topped in July it should hit the 1699 pivot. It did that. Second, if it extended into August it should hit the OEW 1779 pivot. It extended into August by reaching SPX 1710 on the 2nd. Currently, however, it does not look like it will make it to that next pivot. If this is correct, and the uptrend has topped, Major wave 3 has ended and Major wave 4, probably a 10% correction, is underway.

We have been counting this bull market as a five Primary wave event during a Cycle wave [1]. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011, and Primary III has been underway since then. Primary I divided into five Major waves/trends, with a subdividing Major wave 1. Primary III is also following the same pattern, but both Major waves 1 and 3 have subdivided into five Intermediate waves/trends. Major waves 1 and 2 completed by mid-2012, Major wave 3 has been underway since then. Intermediate waves i and ii of Major 3 completed by late-2012, and Int. waves iii and iv by mid-2013. Intermediate wave v of Major wave 3 began at that point in time.

If this uptrend has concluded we should next see about a 10% correction for Major wave 4. Then an uptrend to new highs for Major wave 5 completing Primary III. Then after a Primary IV correction, a Primary V uptrend should end the bull market. We are still expecting this all to unfold by late-winter to early-spring of 2014.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may have topped

This Intermediate wave v uptrend began in mid-June at SPX 1560. We expected five Minor waves to unfold to complete the uptrend, which would also complete Major wave 3 of Primary III. Minor waves one through four were quite simple SPX: 1. 1627, 2. 1605, 3. 1699, and 4. 1676. Minor wave 5, however, has been quite complex. In the SPX it appears too choppy to count. In the DOW it looks like an ending diagonal triangle.

When the fifth wave of an uptrend is completing there are usually some negative technical signs suggesting a topping process is underway. We have them. The weekly chart posted earlier displays a double negative RSI divergence. The daily chart below, also displays a double RSI negative divergence and the MACD has turned down as well. Market breadth, as measured by the NYAD appears to have peaked on a negative divergence as well. The recent rise made a double top, and was weak like the previous Intermediate wave v’s.

When the decline began early in the week we posted some comments. The first thing to look for would be if the SPX loses the 1699 pivot range. Then if SPX 1685 and 1676 are also exceeded to the downside a downtrend is probably underway. By Wednesday morning the SPX had lost the 1699 pivot range, and had declined 25 points: 1710-1685. The largest decline since the uptrend began. But it held support at SPX 1685 and rallied back to 1700.

We had also noted the last downtrend started when three of four consecutive trading days had gap down openings. By Wednesday the SPX had displayed the same pattern. The last point we made was about the DOW. Should the DOW break 15,405 its Minor wave 4 low a downtrend is likely underway. The DOW held above that low on Wednesday, rallied with the SPX, but made a lower low on Thursday, then broke that level on Friday. The DOW appears to be leading to the downside. Medium term support is at the 1680 and 1628 pivots, with resistance at the 1699 and 1762 pivots.


As noted above. Minor waves 1-2-3-4 were quite simple and Minor wave 5 has been choppy and quite complex. We had first thought it ended around SPX 1700 with an ending diagonal. Then it shot right up to SPX 1710. Now again it appears to have formed a larger ending diagonal triangle. Only this time while the SPX has held support, the DOW has completely retraced the entire Minor wave 5 advance. This suggests the uptrend is over, and the market should follow the DOW lower.

Short term support is at the 1680 pivot and SPX 1658-1667, with resistance at the 1699 pivot and SPX 1717. Short term momentum ended the week below neutral. The short term OEW charts are negative with the reversal level SPX 1695.


The Asian markets were mostly lower on the week for a net loss of 1.6%. India, Indonesia and Japan are in confirmed downtrends.

The European markets were mostly higher on the week for a net gain of 1.1%. All indices remain in uptrends.

The Commodity equity group were mixed on the week for a net gain of 0.5%. All three indices here are in uptrends. Worldwide 85% of the indices we track are in uptrends.

The DJ World index is uptrending but lost 0.4% on the week.


Bonds appear to be uptrending and gained 0.6% on the week.

Crude remains in an uptrend but lost 1.0% on the week.

Gold is uptrending and gained 0.1% on the week.

The USD is downtrending and lost 1.0% on the week.


Monday: Budget deficit at 2:00. Tuesday: Retail sales, Export/Import prices and Business inventories. Wednesday: the PPI. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims, the CPI, the NY FED, Industrial production, the Philly FED and NAHB housing. Friday: Housing starts, Building permits, Consumer sentiment and Options expiration. Nothing on the FED’s agenda. Best to your weekend and week.


After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2013 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules