Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Is the Stocks Bull Market Over? Dow Trend Forecast into End January 2015 - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver Stocks Apocalypse Now, Bear Market Review - Rambus_Chartology
3.NHS Baldrick Plan to Spread Ebola Across UK - Sheffield, Newcastle, Liverpool, London Hospitals - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Ebola Terror Threat Suicide Bio-Weapons Threatens Multiple 9/11's, Global Plague - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Second-Richest Man Says Mortgages Now a "No Brainer" - Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
6.Gold And Silver Still No End In Sight - Michael_Noonan
7.NHS Baldrick Plan to Spread Ebola Across UK - Sheffield, Newcastle, Liverpool, London Hospitals - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Gold Bug is Set to Bite Back - EWI
9.How Alibaba Could Capitalize on the EBay-PayPal Split - Frank_Holmes
10.The Consequences of the Economic Peace - John_Mauldin
Last 5 days
Gold And Silver Price - Respect The Trend But Prepare For A Reversal - 25th Oct 14
Ebola Has Nothing To Do With The Stock Market - 25th Oct 14
The Gallery of Crowd Behavior: Goodbye Stock Market All Time Highs - 25th Oct 14
Japanese Style Deflation Coming? Where? Fed Falling Behind the Curve? Which Way? - 25th Oct 14
Gold Price Rebounds but Gold Miners Struggle - 25th Oct 14
Stock Market Buy the Dip or Sell the Rally - 25th Oct 14
Get Ready for “Stupid Cheap” Stock Prices - 25th Oct 14
The Trend Every Nation on Earth Is Pouring Money Into - 25th Oct 14 - Keith Fitz-Gerald
Bitcoin Price Decline Stopped, Possibly Temporarily - 25th Oct 14
Bullish Silver Stealth Buying - 24th Oct 14
Blood in the Streets to Create the Gold Stocks Investor Opportunity of the Decade - 24th Oct 14
Swiss ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ Gold Initiative Campaigns Compete at Launches in Bern - 24th Oct 14
War And The Law Of Unintended Consequences - 24th Oct 14
Tesco Meltdown Debt Default Risk Could Trigger a Financial Crisis in Early 2015 - 24th Oct 14
Saudi Move to Cut Oil Prices Is Now Russia's Biggest Economic Threat - 24th Oct 14
US Stock Market Top Is Now In Sight - 24th Oct 14
New Profit Points in the Shifting Balance of Power, Welcome to Saudi America - 24th Oct 14
QE Failure & Folly Of Paper Mache, Treasury Bond Integrated Lifeline Patches - 24th Oct 14
U.S. Economy Faltering Momentum, Debt and Asset Bubbles - 23rd Oct 14
Annuities - Afraid Your Money Will Vanish before You Do? - 23rd Oct 14
What Debt Deleveraging? - 23rd Oct 14
How to Profit from Massive Spin-Offs with Just One Play - 23rd Oct 14
Evaluating Ebola as a Biological Weapon - 23rd Oct 14
Euro, USD, Gold and Stocks According to Chartology - 23rd Oct 14
Why You Should Always Be Invested in the Stock Market (Even Now) - 23rd Oct 14
Five U.S. Housing Market Warning Signs Point to Real Estate Market Downturn - 23rd Oct 14
The Better Short: Gold or Silver? - 23rd Oct 14
Focus on Graphite Companies with Green Energy and Technology Strategies - 22nd Oct 14
Crude Oil Price Hitting Bottom - 22nd Oct 14
Evidence of Another Even More Sweeping U.S. Housing Market Bust Already Starting to Appear - 22nd Oct 14
Gold Or Crushing Paper Debt Stocks Crash? - 22nd Oct 14
India Gold Demand Surges 450% and Bank of Russia Demand At 15 Year High - 22nd Oct 14
Bitcoin Stock Exchange Could Be "More Valuable than Alibaba" - 22nd Oct 14
Currency War - How to Profit from a Stronger U.S. Dollar - 22nd Oct 14
Banks Hold Treasuries and Make Loans- 22nd Oct 14
Gold and Silver Timing is Everything - 22nd Oct 14
Don't Get Ruined by These 10 Popular Investment Myths (Part VII) - 22nd Oct 14
Follow the Baby Boom to Biotech Stock Profits - 22nd Oct 14
Copper, Nickel and Zinc Won't Be Cheap for Long - 22nd Oct 14
How Will We Know That the Gold & Silver Price Bottom Is In? - 21st Oct 14
Is Gold as Dead as Florida Hurricanes? - 21st Oct 14
First Swiss Gold Poll Shows Pro-Gold Side In Lead At 45% - 21st Oct 14
The Similarities Between Germany and China - 21st Oct 14
The REAL Reason Why the Stock Market Turned Down - 21st Oct 14
Petrobras is a 'Scheme, Not a Stock' - 21st Oct 14
Stocks Bear Market Indicator Is Off the Mark - 20th Oct 14
Stock Market Ideal Turning Point is at Hand - 20th Oct 14
Investors Quit Complaining, The Environment is Perfect Right Now - 20th Oct 14
Ebola Armageddon Could Trigger a Rebirth in Gold and Silver Prices - 20th Oct 14
Gold vs Euro Risk Due To Possible Return of Italian Lira - Drachmas, Escudos, Pesetas and Punts? - 20th Oct 14
Stocks Rebounded Following Recent Sell-Off, But Will It Last? - 20th Oct 14
U.S. Responsible for West Africa Ebola Outbreak Says Liberian Scientist - 20th Oct 14
Stock Market Intermediate B Wave has Started - 20th Oct 14
Gold Stocks Analysis – FNV, CG, NCM, SBM - 19th Oct 14
Stock Market Primary IV Wave Counter Trend Rally - 19th Oct 14
Gold And Silver - Financial World: House Of Cards Built On Sand - 18th Oct 14
Anatomy of a Stock Market Sell-Off - 18th Oct 14
Why OPEC Has Declared an Oil War on Russia - 18th Oct 14
Gold and Silver Extreme Shorting Peaks - 18th Oct 14
Bitcoin Price Fall to $350? - 18th Oct 14
Tesco Supermarket Crisis Worse To Come as Customers Vanish! - 18th Oct 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stocks Epic Bear Market

Silver Price Correction Over, Seasonally Strong September Ahead

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Aug 14, 2013 - 09:58 AM GMT

By: Clive_Maund

Commodities

All the signs are that silver's long correction is now over and that it is beginning a major uptrend. The Commercials have cleared out most of their short positions, for a massive profit of course, meaning that the slate is wiped clean for the game to start over anew. Public opinion and sentiment towards silver remains rotten, which is exactly what you expect to see at a major low, with the investing public at large, having been duly "educated" by the mainstream media, harboring a negative attitude to silver and if anything inclined to short it. Lastly, seasonal factors couldn't be better - August and September are good months for gold which will have a positive influence on silver and September is traditionally the best month of the year for silver by far.


On its 1-year chart we can see that just today, silver broke clear above its 50-day moving average for the first time this year, after breaking out from its steep downtrend last month, and then being restrained in a tight bull Flag for some weeks with the price channeled between the upper boundary of the earlier downtrend and the falling 50-day moving average. This strongly bullish action could quickly lead to a dramatic short squeeze. The big gap between the 50 and 200-day moving averages shows the scope for a rapid recovery back towards the failed major support level at $26, although due to the strength of resistance at and above this level, getting clear above this level is going to be a tough assignment. Today's breakout move was preceded not just by a breakout from the downtrend but also by a substantial improvement in momentum, with the MACD indicator now almost at the zero line.

Silver Daily Chart

Silver's long-term chart reveals that we are at the perfect point for a reversal and a major new uptrend to start, with the price having reacted back to the strong support level shown. Although the price could theoretically drop back further to the long-term uptrend shown, other factors, notably the strong support level just mentioned, make it probable that the new uptrend will start from here. The potential major challenge on the way up will be getting above the strong and clearly defined resistance level at $26 and the red downtrend line shown, which are likely to be coincident when it tries it. Adam Hamilton's recent article "Silver Short Squeeze" details a massive record short position in silver held by futures speculators. If he is right - and I have no reason to doubt that he is - then we are likely to see a phenomenal rally by silver soon as these shorts engage in a panic buying frenzy to avoid being wiped out that could easily blow silver straight through the resistance at $26 like it wasn't there.

Silver Daily Chart 2

The latest COTs for silver remain strongly bullish, with the Commercials having largely flushed out their earlier big short position, for a whacking great profit as usual, while the cowed and beaten Large Specs are largely out and licking their wounds - this is the classic stuff of a major bottom.

Silver COT Chart

The long-term silver COT chart is also strongly bullish, with all readings at or close to cyclical extremes that accompany a major low.

Silver COT Chart 2

Chart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

The Public Opinion chart for silver below shows that the investing public hold it in very low esteem, and that has to be bullish.

Silver Public Opinion Chart

Chart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

The seasonality chart for silver shows that its best month of the year by far, September, is now close at hand, so it would appear that, taking everything into consideration, silver longs have plenty to look forward to in the near future.

Silver Seasonality Chart

Finally, anyone worrying that the impending interest rate spike will stop silver's ascent should go back to school - that school involving study of what happened in the late 70's. For the benefit of those readers who were in diapers at the time, I'll give you the shorthand version: gold and silver prices rose hand in hand with interest rates. The reason? - interest rates were rising because bonds and Treasuries were plunging, so these investments offered no serious competition to gold and silver - what good are high interest yields if the principal value of your investment is shrinking?

By Clive Maund
CliveMaund.com

For billing & subscription questions: subscriptions@clivemaund.com

© 2013 Clive Maund - The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maunds opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications.

Clive Maund Archive

© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014