Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22
How to Profit from 2022’s Biggest Trend Reversal - 11th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Ready To Drop To 4400SPX? - 11th Jan 22
What's the Role of an Affiliate Marketer? - 11th Jan 22
Essential Things To Know Before You Set Up A Limited Liability Company - 11th Jan 22
NVIDIA THE KING OF THE METAVERSE! - 10th Jan 22
Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived - 10th Jan 22
The Meteoric Rise of Investing in Trading Cards - 10th Jan 22
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK! - 9th Jan 22
WARNING Failing NVME2 M2 SSD Drives Can Prevent Systems From Booting - Corsair MP600 - 9th Jan 22
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history - 9th Jan 22
NVME M2 SSD FAILURE WARNING Signs - Corsair MP600 1tb Drive - 9th Jan 22
Meadowhall Sheffield Christmas Lights 2021 Shopping - Before the Switch on - 9th Jan 22
How Does Insurance Work In Europe? Find Out Here - 9th Jan 22
MATTERPORT (MTTR) - DIGITIZING THE REAL WORLD - METAVERSE INVESTING 2022 - 7th Jan 22
Effect of Deflation On The Gold Price - 7th Jan 22
Stock Market 2022 Requires Different Strategies For Traders/Investors - 7th Jan 22
Old Man Winter Will Stimulate Natural Gas and Heating Oil Demand - 7th Jan 22
Is The Lazy Stock Market Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - 7th Jan 22
METAVERSE - NEW LIFE FOR SONY AGEING GAMING GIANT? - 6th Jan 2022
What Elliott Waves Show for Asia Pacific Stock and Financial Markets 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
Why You Should Register Your Company - 6th Jan 2022
4 Ways to Invest in Silver for 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
UNITY (U) - Metaverse Stock Analysis Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 5th Jan 2022
Stock Market Staving Off Risk-Off - 5th Jan 2022
Gold and Silver Still Hungover After New Year’s Eve - 5th Jan 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? - 5th Jan 2022

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Will the Stock Market S&P 500 Impact Gold Stocks?

Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013 Aug 21, 2013 - 04:49 PM GMT

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Commodities

With recoveries come questions. Will this last? Is this just setting up a bigger decline? The current recovery in the gold stocks has been both strong and broad based. It has occurred at a time when the stock market seems vulnerable. The stock market is up substantially since 2009. Yet, the most recent gains have resulted almost entirely from margin expansion rather than profit growth. Meanwhile, nominal GDP growth is the lowest ever (ex recessions). Gold stocks are up 16.8% in the last 13 days while the S&P 500 has declined by 3.4%. Should gold stock investors and speculators worry about the effect of a deeper decline or cyclical bear market on the mining sector? History says no.


The relationship between the gold stocks and the stock market is difficult to pinpoint as its quite scattered. At times the two markets can trend together and in either direction. Sometimes when the stock market is falling, gold stocks can rise. The reverse can also happen as has been the case for the past two years.

The determinant is the current correlation between the two markets. If the two markets are trending together then they will continue to trend together following a major trend change. Examples of this include the late 1920s to the mid 1930s and the mid 2000s to 2010. Yet if the two markets are negatively correlated (with the S&P 500 rising) then they will remain negatively correlated after the trend change. The following are important examples of that.

The gold stocks (red) and the S&P 500 were negatively correlated from 1972 to 1978. The gold stocks absolutely exploded to the upside from 1972-1974 while the S&P was in a bad bear market. As the bear market ended, gold stocks fell into a consolidation and a decline which closely resembles the most recent bear market. When the S&P 500 fell into a mild cyclical bear market, gold stocks emerged from their bottom.

Many market observers forget the period of the late 1990s. The gold stocks were in a nasty bear market as the Nasdaq went parabolic. The S&P 500 continued to rise into 2000. Similar to 1973-1975, the gold stocks exploded higher despite a severe bear market in general equities.

Finally, over the past two years the gold stocks declined nearly 70% while the S&P 500 advanced nearly 50%.

The stock market falls because of rising inflation or because of tighter credit or recessionary conditions. Rising inflation is usually a boon for metals prices but negative for general equities as it cuts into margins and hurts corporate profits. Currently corporate profit margins are at all-time highs while revenue growth is lacking. With the S&P trading at over 18x trailing earnings, the market is not cheap and therefore is vulnerable to rising rates and rising inflation. Moreover, common sense tells us that if gold stocks correct while the stock market gains, its quite unrealistic to expect gold stocks to continue to decline if the stock market declines. At present, if the economy nears recession and the stock market falls (for whatever reason), policy makers will act and it should benefit precious metals.

Technically, the gold stocks continue to follow a typical post-bottom rebound path and look very strong. The daily RSI of GDX is at a 10-month high as GDX consolidates around $30. We’d love to see GDX consolidate for a few weeks but it may break above $31 within days. There is an open gap at $34 while $38-$39 remains a strong target.

In summation, if you are a gold stock investor there is no need to worry about the stock market. History shows that some of the best gains in gold stocks (1972-1974 and 2000-2002) occurred during a bear market in stocks. Also, history shows that given the current negative correlation between the two markets, we should expect gold stocks to perform well if the stock market is in the very early stages of a bear market. Perhaps at somepoint the gold stocks will consolidate for several months when they are overbought or when the stock market is most vulnerable. That point is nowhere close. Stay bullish and look for continued gains in the coming weeks.

If you'd be interested in professional guidance in this endeavor, then we invite you to learn more about our service.

Good Luck!

Email: Jordan@TheDailyGold.com
Service Link: http://thedailygold.com/premium

Bio: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT  is a Chartered Market Technician, a member of the Market Technicians Association and from 2010-2013 an official contributor to the CME Group, the largest futures exchange in the world. He is the publisher and editor of TheDailyGold Premium, a publication which emphaszies market timing and stock selection for the sophisticated investor.  Jordan's work has been featured in CNBC, Barrons, Financial Times Alphaville, and his editorials are regularly published in 321gold, Gold-Eagle, FinancialSense, GoldSeek, Kitco and Yahoo Finance. He is quoted regularly in Barrons. Jordan was a speaker at PDAC 2012, the largest mining conference in the world.

Jordan Roy-Byrne Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in