Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.US Dollar Crashes, Gold And Bitcoin Skyrocket As Economic Recovery Lie Is Exposed - Jeff_Berwick
2.Now Obama Warns Americans to ‘Be Prepared’ for Disaster… What Does He Know? - Jeff_Berwick
3.EU Referendum - Britain's Immigration / Migrant Crisis Explained - Nadeem_Walayat
4.EU Referendum - British People vs Establishment Elite, Vote LEAVE an Act of Defiance! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Prominent Billionaire Investors Warn of Financial Crash, Quietly Position Themselves - MoneyMetals
6.Bankers Warn of BrExit Financial Armageddon if British People Vote for Freedom - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bad U.S. Jobs Report Prompts Stocks Bear Market Rally Towards New All Time Highs! - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Gold And Silver – Friday May Have Marked A Pivotal Turnaround - Michael_Noonan
9.EU Referendum - British People vs Establishment Elite, the Illusion of Democracy and Freedom - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Felix Zulauf: Monetary Stimulation Creates Bubbles, Not Prosperity Nor Growth - GoldandLiberty
Free Silver
Last 7 days
Gold And Silver: Security, And BREXIT - 25th June 16
Dow, Euro & Brexit Recap - 25th June 16
Resistance Holding Gold Stocks after Brexit - 25th June 16
Venezuela vs. Ecuador (Chavismo vs. Chavismo Dollarized) - 25th June 16
Gold, Silver And PM Stocks Summer Doldrums Risk - 24th June 16
Here’s Why China “Economic Hard-Landing” Worries Are Overblown - 24th June 16
Jubilee Jolt: Markets Crash, Gold Skyrockets as Britain Takes Brexit - 24th June 16
BrExit Morning - New Dawn for Britain, Independence Day! - 24th June 16
LEAVE Wins EU Referendum - Sterling and FTSE Hit Hard, Pollsters, Bookies and Markets All WRONG! - 24th June 16
Trading BrExit - British Pound Plunges, FTSE Stock Futures Slump on LEAVE Shock Referendum Win - 24th June 16
EU Referendum Shock Results Putting BrExit LEAVE in the Lead Hitting Sterling Hard - 24th June 16
Final Opinion Poll Gives REMAIN 52% Lead, Bookmakers, Markets and Pollsters ALL Back REMAIN Win - 23rd June 16
Does BREXIT Matter? Outlook for Sterling - 23rd June 16
Keep Calm and Vote BrExit - Last Chance to Break Free of EU Superstate - 23rd June 16
Here’s the Foreign Policy Trump and Clinton Really Want - 23rd June 16
Details Behind Semiconductor Stocks Leadership - 23rd June 16
Trading BrExit - Stocks, Bonds, Sterling, Opinion Polls, Bookmaker Odds and My Forecast - 23rd June 16
BrExit Looks Set to Win EU Referendum, Final Opinion Polls Give LEAVE Lead Over REMAIN - 22nd June 16
Proof that the Gold Bears are Wrong - 22nd June 16
Here’s a Trillion-Dollar Investment Opportunity for Those Few with No Debt - 22nd June 16
BrExit to Save Europe from Climate Change Refugee Migration Apocalypse - 22nd June 16
Increase In U.S. Rig Count Will Not Cap Oil Prices - 22nd June 16
Are Copper and China Stocks Set to Rally? - 22nd June 16
SPX May Break Its Trendline - 22nd June 16
Believe it or Not: More Kids Live At Home Now than Since The Great Depression - 21st June 16
EU Referendum Latest Opinion Polls Show LEAVE Halting REMAINs Surge - 21st June 16
British Pound Outlook - BREXIT, Europe and You - Does your vote matter? - 21st June 16
Fascist Victory Behind the European Union - 21st June 16
EU Referendum Opinion Polls Analysis Shows Strong Momentum in REMAINs Favour - 21st June 16
Is It Time to Dump Gold and Buy Platinum? - 21st June 16
Could Central Bankers Be Gold and Silver's BIGGEST Allies? - 20th June 16
Words Still Mean Things – Brexit With Graham Mehl - 20th June 16
Baroness Warsi the Manchurian Candidate Quits LEAVE for REMAIN, Boris Johnson Next? - 20th June 16
FTSE Soars, Stock Markets Bounce on LEAVE Polls Surge, Bookmakers Widen BrExit Odds - 20th June 16
Brexit Would Trigger Devolution of Europe - 20th June 16
Stock Market Week Of Uncertainty - 20th June 16
Will Gold’s Bullish Price Chart Outperform Gold’s 5 Bearish Indicators? - 20th June 16
Bonds And Stocks At All-Time Highs: Are Markets Confused Or Broken? - 20th June 16
Silver Sleeping On the Job - 19th June 16
BrExit Odds Sink, REMAIN Polls Boost by Jo Cox Killing by Radical Right Extremist, Conspiracy? - 19th June 16
How Elliott Waves Tell You When to "Jump In" & When to "Jump Out" of Markets - 18th June 16
Stock Market Inflection Point During Bifurcation - 18th June 16
Gold And Silver – Insanity Is World “Norm.” Keep Stacking! - 18th June 16
Gold Stocks - Bull Markets that Follow Epic Bears - 18th June 16
The Fed Giveth and the Gold Bullion Banks Taketh Away… - 17th June 16
Brexit: "The Vote Heard Around the World" - 17th June 16
Gold Stocks Summer Breakout? - 17th June 16
Stock Investors Get Higher Returns and More Dividend Income - In Less Time With Less Risk - 17th June 16
How to Use the Gold-to-Silver Ratio? - 17th June 16
Inflation, Deflation & Associated Trading Prospects - 17th June 16
Overnight Markets Struggling to Stay Flat - 17th June 16
Gold Price Surges to Highest in Nearly Two Years On Central Bank and Brexit Haven Demand - 17th June 16
Stock Market Thinking Upside Down; Dow 18k Still Key - 17th June 16
Jo Cox MP Terror Attack Killing Claimed for "Britain First" - Witness Report - 17th June 16
Stock Market, Iron Ore, Bitcoin – Is Silver Next for Chinese Momentum Investors? - 16th June 16
EU Referendum Campaigning Suspended Following Shooting of MP Jo Cox, Suspect Named as Tommy Mair - 16th June 16
Why People are Migrating to the UK, Illegal Immigration, Housing Crisis Consequences - 16th June 16
Stocks Fluctuate Following Recent Decline - Bottom Or Just Pause Before Another Leg Down? - 16th June 16
The US Consumer-Driven Economy Has Hit a Brick Wall - 16th June 16
Bitcoin Price Going Parabolic Again, Now At $730 and Up 60%+ In Last Three Weeks - 16th June 16
China's Hard Landing Has Already Begun! - 16th June 16
Crude Oil Price - Oil Bears vs. Support Zone - 16th June 16
Central Bankers Are Wrong About Inflation and Deflation - 15th June 16
Alignment Of The Dow, Interest Rates, Debt and Silver Cycles Will Deliver A Fatal Blow - 15th June 16
Stock Market Bounce May be Over - 15th June 16
EU Referendum: Have the Bookmakers Got it Wrong? LEAVE Opinion Polls Lead - 15th June 16
Gold Price Rally - 15th June 16
How to Invest for Brexit Report - 15th June 16
Stock Market Short of the Decade? - 15th June 16
Stock Market Sell Off Coming! - 14th June 16
QE - The Good, Bad & Ugly - 14th June 16
This Demographic Shift Makes Our Social Security Useless - 14th June 16
Gold Stocks Ultimate Objective in a World of Monetary Transition - 14th June 16
Philosophy of the New World Order - 14th June 16
The Brexit Game - Boris Johnson vs David Cameron EU Referendum Zombies - 14th June 16
EU Referendum: LEAVE Opinion Poll Lead of 51% to 49% Whilst Bookmaker Odds Still Strongly Favour REMAIN - 14th June 16
George Soros Making Big Bets on Gold - 14th June 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

Stock Market Best Offense Is A Good Defense

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Sep 03, 2013 - 05:59 AM GMT

By: Michael_Noonan

Stock-Markets

If you do not use stops in a market, do not complain about giving back profits or taking larger losses. That is the negative approach to handling one's portfolio, and for some reason, more the norm for stock investors/traders.

Change is inevitable, but it needs some direction. The use of stops will eliminate a lot of emotional decision-making and help shore up a weakness in strategy, but simply doing away with weakness does not ensure strength. Those areas which will improve overall performance need even greater development. The best way is to have a set of rules.


Every successful trader we know of not only has a set of rules, but they are also written down and reviewed weekly, if not daily. The rules need not be complicated, but they should be consistent, for consistency will have you acting in the same way under similar circumstances that ensures better performance results.

A set of rules develops out of your individual market approach and needs to fit your trading/investing style. One of the simplest is to always be in sync with the trend. This requires a knowledge and understanding of what constitutes a trend. Higher highs and higher lows is one easy measure. Some may employ a set of moving averages. Whatever the choice, it needs to be applied uniformly, instilling discipline by always adhering to your established and written rules.

Trend application will be evident in the following charts to better understand where the market is and what it may be telling us. There is a divergence of strength between the S&P and the NASDAQ, the latter showing more strength than the former. We start with the S&P monthly.

In addition to understanding trend, the concept of relative strength is a crucial part of knowing which stocks to hold and which to sell. Always stay with strength, and always sell weakness. That will become more apparent in the next chart.

The S&P has rallied into new high ground, but the bars have been overlapping since that event. The overlapping of bars indicates a struggle/balance between buys and sellers at a level where buyers should be in control.

This is where any holdings within this index should be reviewed, and marginal or poor performers should be weaned, for if they cannot do well as price enters new highs, they will not hold up very well if/when the market turns. Then, carefully monitor those that are profitable, and place a stop under a recent swing low or price level you would not want to see your stock go lower on you.

It will be worth watching to see if the low monthly close pattern of price reversal maintains itself for September, historically a month when prices are generally lower.

Here is where relative strength shines out. Compare the price location of the current high in the S&P, relative to its 2007 high, then look at where the NAS index is relative to its 2007 swing high. Tech stocks have been faring much better. Any holdings in tech stocks that have not kept pace with the index are relative weak performers, and one would not want to be holding onto weakness during a period of strength. It is just common sense.

You see greater detail on the weekly chart, and the 4 smaller rally bars leading up to the high shows a lack of demand. In new high ground, when price cannot rally in a stronger fashion, it raises a red flag. The trend is showing signs of being tired, not ending, but struggling. Marginal winners, and certainly all losers in one's portfolio deserve attention as to retention.

From the high, there was Ease of Downward Movement, [EDM], three weeks ago. One has to watch how the next rally responds to a retest. If it struggles on small ranges and weak volume, the market will be signaling more weakness can easily follow. Plan accordingly.

Stronger, again, compared to the S&P, the weekly NAS shows clearer signs of tiring by the overlapping of bars. Last week's bar was wide with a poor close, but it held support from the May swing high, [horizontal line]. The arrow pointing to the September 2012 swing high demonstrates why small range bars can be a clear warning, and one should heed them.

The detail from the daily shows why some concern was expressed for developing market activity on the weekly. The Axis Line acts as support when price is above and resistance when price is below. The latter August rally failed right at that level and produced an EDM bar which, interestingly, did not result in further downside movement. Price retested that low on Friday, [second bar from the end], and held, as the market has rallied on Monday.

The first test will be the small resistance dashed line, just under 1670. If price sails through it, the S&P should work higher. If not, stops become very important, or even selling some gains to lock in profits. It all depends upon one's objectives, and profit ranks high.

The struggle within the NAS is apparent. The strength of the monthly and weekly charts gives the benefit of any doubt to the up trend reasserting itself. If price breaks under the support area, around 3050, the daily trend turns down.

By Michael Noonan

http://edgetraderplus.com

Michael Noonan, mn@edgetraderplus.com, is a Chicago-based trader with over 30 years in the business. His sole approach to analysis is derived from developing market pattern behavior, found in the form of Price, Volume, and Time, and it is generated from the best source possible, the market itself.

© 2013 Copyright Michael Noonan - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Michael Noonan Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife