Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Fed Balance Sheet QE4EVER - Stock Market Trend Forecast Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Mega Trend Forecast - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold and Silver Precious Metals Pot Pourri - Rambus_Chartology
5.The Exponential Stocks Bull Market - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.America's 30 Blocks of Holes - James_Quinn
8.US Presidential Cycle and Stock Market Trend 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Dear Stocks Bull Market: Happy 10 Year Anniversary! - Troy_Bombardia
10.Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
In Just 45 Mins., Learn to Spot New Opportunities in ANY Market for FREE! - 25th April 19
If This Pattern Holds True, the US Economy Could Face the Worst Stagnation in History - 25th April 19
8 Reasons Why Investment in Education Always Pays Off - 25th April 19
Want To Earn A Safe 5% In Fixed Income? Buy Preferred Stocks - 24th April 19
Can Gold Price Rise Without a Rate Cut?  - 24th April 19
Silver’s Next Big Move - 24th April 19
How Can a College Student Invest Wisely? - 24th April 19
Prepare For Unknown Stock Market Price Action As New Highs Are Reached - 23rd April 19
Silver Plays a Small but Vital Role in Every Portfolio - 23rd April 19
Forecasting 2020s : Two Recessions, Higher Taxes, and Japan-Like Flat Markets - 23rd April 19
Gold and Silver Give Traders Another Buying Opportunity - 23rd April 19
Stock Market Pause Should Extend - 21st April 19
Why Gold Has Been the Second Best Asset Class for the Last 20 Years - 21st April 19
Could Taxing the Rich Solve Income Inequality? - 21st April 19
Stock Market Euphoria Stunts Gold - 20th April 19
Is Political Partisanship Killing America? - 20th April 19
Trump - They Were All Lying - 20th April 19
The Global Economy Looks Disturbingly Like Japan Before Its “Lost Decade” - 19th April 19
Growing Bird of Paradise Strelitzia Plants, Pruning and Flower Guide Over 4 Years - 19th April 19
S&P 500’s Downward Reversal or Just Profit-Taking Action? - 18th April 19
US Stock Markets Setting Up For Increased Volatility - 18th April 19
Intel Corporation (INTC) Bullish Structure Favors More Upside - 18th April 19
Low New Zealand Inflation Rate Increases Chance of a Rate Cut - 18th April 19
Online Grocery Shopping Will Go Mainstream as Soon as This Year - 17th April 19
America Dancing On The Crumbling Precipice - 17th April 19
Watch The Financial Sector For The Next Stock Market Topping Pattern - 17th April 19
How Central Bank Gold Buying is Undermining the US Dollar - 17th April 19
Income-Generating Business - 17th April 19
INSOMNIA 64 Birmingham NEC Car Parking Info - 17th April 19
Trump May Regret His Fed Takeover Attempt - 16th April 19
Downside Risk in Gold & Gold Stocks - 16th April 19
Stock Market Melt-Up or Roll Over?…A Look At Two Scenarios - 16th April 19
Is the Stock Market Making a Head and Shoulders Topping Pattern? - 16th April 19
Will Powell’s Dovish Turn Support Gold? - 15th April 19
If History Is Any Indication, Stocks Should Rally Until the Fall of 2020 - 15th April 19
Stocks Get Closer to Last Year’s Record High - 15th April 19
Oil Price May Be Setup For A Move Back to $50 - 15th April 19
Stock Market Ready For A Pause! - 15th April 19
Shopping for Bargain Souvenirs in Fethiye Tuesday Market - Turkey Holidays 2019 - 15th April 19
From US-Sino Talks to New Trade Wars, Weakening Global Economic Prospects - 14th April 19
Stock Market Indexes Race For The New All-Time High - 14th April 19
Why Gold Price Will “Just Explode… in the Blink of an Eye” - 14th April 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top 10 AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Gold And Silver - It Is Always About One Thing: Timing

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Sep 07, 2013 - 06:36 PM GMT

By: Michael_Noonan

Commodities

Is the current rally from the lows the result of:

A. Long lines to buy silver and gold coins world-wide
B. Unprecedented demand for those same coins, year over year
C. Drawdowns of physical gold/silver on COMEX
D. Central bank PM vaults about empty


E. Reneging on delivery by banks to gold customers
F. Deutsche Bank demanding repatriation of some of their gold, [unavailable]
G. Allocated gold accounts that have no allocated gold, [Paper promises instead]
H. China, Russia, India taking all offers by the tonne
I. Potential attack on Syria unilaterally by O[bomb]a J. All of the above
K. None of the above

We would take J. All of the above, and then add, is that all there is? Is that the best the gold and silver market can do in light of so many ultra-positive dynamic developments? Is there any powder left in the PM guru muskets to substantiate pie-in-the-sky-promises, all unfulfilled, as of Friday? How much more information will it take to propel gold up to the "lofty" 1438 level? [Not as much pie, and not as much sky.]

There is one exceptional chart that best captures the essence of the current PMs scenario within its 5,000 or whatever year history, and it lets all know that everything else is a symptomatic consequence. When you understand the implications of this chart, you then understand it is all a matter of timing. You can add to the above list as many other aspects relating to gold and silver, and when the list is complete, ask, "How is it working out for you?"

Credit to Incrementum for their great chart. It would be even more dramatic had it gone back to 1913, when the private banking cartel, aka Federal Reserve, took control of the US money supply. It has always been just a matter of time. Everything else is but a symptom.



The London fix has been replaced by the endless "guru fix' to supply the shot in the arm so necessary to sustain the belief of over-the-moon-prices. "So and so said gold is going to $5000 and silver to $300." And?

How many times have we heard it? The drum beats are again getting louder. Meanwhile, the market struggles to maintain a solid rally. "The paper market is not the real market!" Okay, where is the "real market?" Being neither Russia nor China, most people are paying "paper market" prices for the real physical.

It is not that the potential for much higher prices is unlikely or the messages are without merit. It is not as though we have not been drinking the same gold/silver Kool-Aid, for we bought gold over $1700 and silver over $45, [physical], and still own it, as well as still buying. No credit here for timing, on that score, although the buying was more than for price sensitivity. It was for the pragmatic purpose of actually having the metals, in hand, no matter where the price was. That has been covered numerous times, already.

This is why we only rely on charts to do all the "talking." The market is the chief Auditor of what the actual participants have to say. "Listen to what the market is saying about others, and not what others are saying about the market."

Another potential the weekly chart shows is from the late June low to the August swing high, price can easily correct to 1270 area and still keep the integrity of a potential bottoming formation intact. It is all about timing.



The chart comments adequately express what is developing near term. It is necessary that we admit to taking "stupid pills" when gold reached the August swing highs. Instead of realizing at least partial profits at an obvious resistance area, we ignored the clear message of the market and opted for "staying long" based on the "obvious" non-timing market belief that "reality" would set in. That was a misplaced "belief."

It is all about timing. Why didn't we read our own message?!



There are some positive short-term developments noted on the chart, but this lower time frame is subservient to the higher time frames. It does not look like a correction could go to the 1275 area, on this chart, but the weekly says it could happen, and we all need to be aware of the possibility. Let the market lead the way, then follow.



Silver continues to hold better than gold, for whatever reason. The gap we noted, when it occurred, is interesting to follow, just for drill, to see if it holds, [for a lifetime] or gets filled.

The whole world knows about that 26 resistance area, so expect some backing and filling when it is next approached.



The current activity on the right side is necessary to absorb all the selling from the left side box area. Since no one knows how any market will develop, we do not know how much time it will take for silver to spend whatever time is needed to successfully rally above the 25 area, which may also be a part of the more obvious 26 price level.



The intra day breakouts, D/S notations, are growing more than selling efforts, S/D. When, and how price approaches/overcomes/fails to overcome the immediate 24.60 area will provide important market feedback on the character of the silver rally.

Still long both metals.


By Michael Noonan

http://edgetraderplus.com

Michael Noonan, mn@edgetraderplus.com, is a Chicago-based trader with over 30 years in the business. His sole approach to analysis is derived from developing market pattern behavior, found in the form of Price, Volume, and Time, and it is generated from the best source possible, the market itself.

© 2013 Copyright Michael Noonan - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Michael Noonan Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules