Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Gold Price Trend Forecast, Where are the Gold Traders? - Bob_Loukas
2.Stocks Bear Market of 2017 Begins? Shorting the Dow At its Peak! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Betting on President Trump Leaving Office Early, Presidency End Date - Betfair Market - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Why Stock Market Analysts Will be Wrong About 2017 - Clif_Droke
5.Is This The Best Way For Investors To Play The Electric Car Boom - OilPrice_Com
6.Silver Price 2017 Trend Forecast Update - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Gold Price Set For Very Bullish 2017, Trend Forecast - Austin_Galt
8.10 Things I learned From Meetings With Trump’s Transition Team - - John_Mauldin
9.How Investors Can Profit From Trumps Military Ambitions - OilPrice_Com
10.Channel 4 War on 'Fake News', Forgets Own Alt Reality Propaganda Broadcasting - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Trump Relinquishes Control of Foreign Policy - 26th Feb 17
[Gratis] "Dark Money" Secrets Revealed! - 26th Feb 17
Stock Market SPX New All-time Highs Continue - 25th Feb 17
POWERFUL GOLD & SILVER COILED SPRINGS: Important Charts You Have To See - 25th Feb 17
Underperformance in Gold Stocks Argues for Interim Peak - 25th Feb 17
Watch What Happens When Silver Price Hits $26...  - 25th Feb 17
Gold Futures Buying Yet to Start - 25th Feb 17
When the Stock Market Flying Pig Tops - 24th Feb 17
Gold, Second Fed Hike and Interest Rates - 24th Feb 17
Bitcoin Price Hits Record High! - 24th Feb 17
Another Stock Market Bubble? Bring it On! - 24th Feb 17
What Investors Need To Know About U.S. Money Market Funds? - 24th Feb 17
When Was America’s Peak Wealth? - 24th Feb 17
The Oscars – Worth Their Weight in Gold? - 24th Feb 17
The Best Reasons to Buy Gold in the Age of Trump - 22nd Feb 17
Silver, The Return of Stagflation - 22nd Feb 17
Why EU BrExit Single Market Access Hard line is European Union Committing Suicide - 22nd Feb 17
Gold: Short End US Rates Matter More Than Long End Real Yields - 22nd Feb 17
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES: Example Of What Is Horribly Wrong With The U.S. Shale Oil Industry - 22nd Feb 17
Here’s Proof Rising Rates Are Good for Gold - 21st Feb 17
Gold and Silver Weekly Update - 21st Feb 17
US Dollar and Gold Battle of the Cycles - 21st Feb 17
NSA and CIA is the Enemy of the People - 21st Feb 17
Big Moves in the World Stock Markets - Big Bases - 21st Feb 17
Stock Market Uptrend Continues - 21st Feb 17
Brent Crude Oil Price Technical Update: Low Volatility Leads to High Volatility - 20th Feb 17
Trump’s Tax System Could Spark The Wave Of Self-Employment - 20th Feb 17
Here’s How to Stay Ahead of Machines and AI - 20th Feb 17
Warning Signs Of Instability In Russia - 20th Feb 17
Warning: This Energy Investment Could Wreak Havoc On Your Portfolio - 20th Feb 17
The Mother of All Financial Bubbles will be Unimaginably Destructive when it Bursts - 19th Feb 17
Gold’s Fundamentals Strengthen - 18th Feb 17
The Flynn Fiascom, the Trump Revolution Ends in a Whimper - 18th Feb 17
Not Nearly Enough Economic Growth To Keep Growing - 18th Feb 17
SPX Stocks Bull Market Continues to make New Highs - 18th Feb 17
China Disaster to Trigger Gold Run, Trump to Appoint 5 of 7 Fed Governors - 18th Feb 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

State of Global Markets 2017 - Report

How Will Tapering Affect Gold Bullion Investment?

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Sep 18, 2013 - 06:51 PM GMT

By: Jan_Skoyles

Commodities

Next week the FOMC will meet for one their eight scheduled meetings. It is this particular meeting that has had traders, market commentators and investors almost in frenzy as they try to predict the outcome. It seems everyone is convinced that tapering will go ahead, as of next week, and the gold bears believe that this will signal gold’s demise.


Given the drop in the gold price each time tapering is merely hinted at, one might not be surprised at this prediction. However, as we have learnt since April’s gold price drop, gold investors continue to stock up on gold regardless of what they pay for it. We believe the same will be the case if and when tapering begins.

Tapering will not stop gold buying

Our new research suggests that tapering, irrespective of the gold price’s response, will not have a negative effect on gold bullion investments.

A month ago we asked our clients and readers how tapering would affect their approach to their gold investments.

We gave them five options to choose from with their reply:

I will start selling heavily

I will sell a little

I will not change my holdings

I will buy more

I will buy lots more

The response was, in a word, bullish.

Gold investment and tapering poll

The belief that gold investing will cool-off once the Fed cuts back asset purchases has its roots in the theory that says investors only buy gold as a reaction to the FOMC’s decisions. But our data shows that this is a misunderstanding.

In fact, this only appears to be the case for just 6% of respondents. It was this small group who told us that they would sell their gold, should tapering begin.

We believe this is a fair representation of the general approach to physical gold investment. Just a small minority of investors believe the tapering of QE is not only the equivalent to unwinding but is also a guarantee that the negative repercussions of easy monetary policy will not come to fruition. It also suggests that this small group believe gold will not respond to the developments in other countries and on other central bank sheets.

Gold bulls

Over 55% of those polled told us that tapering would mean they would buy more gold. These individuals are likely to believe a combination of two factors; the first is that they believe any cut is trivial and that gold will not become irrelevant because of this decision; the second is that they do not just focus on one committee’s single decision when choosing their investments.

As we had expected our most popular answer, by just 2.17%, was ‘I will not change my holdings’. We had expected this as our experience of gold investors is that they pay very little attention to the short-term changes in the economy and statement. These individuals, like those increasing their holdings, believe gold is a long term investment. They are aware that the supply of this investment is stable compared to that of all other currencies in the world and one committee’s decision will not affect this simple fact.

Unlike the 6% mentioned above, the majority of respondents believe they still need to hold gold regardless of the FOMC’s actions.

They may believe that the Fed cannot exit, or taper, QE without causing irreparable damage to the markets. The very same markets that the US’s QE was designed to prop up.

Or they may hold gold because it’s what they hold regardless of a central bank’s decision. In the last few months this has been perfectly demonstrated. As we reported in earlier research, the nature of gold demand is changing. Rather than responding to new changes in the economy by moving away from gold, investors are instead moving away from paper gold and into physical gold.

Blinded by the Fed

Tapering is, like anything, a possibility. But it is not a wind-down of QE. Dollars will still be printed along with pounds, euro and yen. In April, Sprott Asset Management showed that the growth of central bank balance sheets and the gold price are highly (95%) correlated. It seems at present markets and commentators have become blindsided by the Fed and their actions. This is despite the results of those actions are yet to culminate and the decisions of other central banks.

Our research shows that the possible tapering by one central bank, is not enough to convince gold investors that their game is up. For starters, there are plenty of others to draw our attentions to. We are now seeing extraordinary decisions being made outside of the US: Mark Carney, of the Bank of England is clearly already adopting many of the Fed’s strategies; in Japan they are pursuing an aggressively loose monetary policy; and in the EU they have a ‘highly accommodative’ approach.

Our research shows that when it comes to gold bullion investing the majority of respondents are long-sighted enough to see further issues on the horizon.

The attitude of respondents to either maintain or increase their holdings suggests one of two things. They either expect more damage to come from the FOMC’s (and other central banks’) monetary policy actions or they do not hold gold because of the decision of one committee. Instead, they hold gold because it is a currency, not a commodity, and a relevant alternative at that.

Further research is required but I suspect the majority of respondents own gold as an alternative asset. They do not hold it because of a decision a central bank may or may not take, rather they hold gold because it is has endurance, it is a faceless currency with a limited supply and no end of fundamentals of which the Federal Reserve is just one of.

Our research shows that gold will not become irrelevant because of a few billion dollars. The Fed and its contemporaries will have to work a lot harder to convince investors that they do not need to hold gold.

Jan Skoyles contributes to the The Real Asset Co research desk. Jan has recently graduated with a First in International Business and Economics. In her final year she developed a keen interest in Austrian economics, Libertarianism and particularly precious metals.   The Real Asset Co. is a secure and efficient way to invest precious metals. Clients typically use our platform to build a long position and are using gold and silver bullion as a savings mechanism in the face on currency debasement and devaluations. The Real Asset Co. holds a distinctly Austrian world view and was launched to help savers and investors secure and protect their wealth and purchasing power.

© 2013 Copyright Jan Skoyles - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Jan Skoyles Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife