Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Will Deutsche Bank Crash The Global Stock Market? - Clif_Droke
3.Gold Price In Excess Of $8000 While US Dollar Collapses - Hubert_Moolman
4.BrExit UK Economic Collapse Evaporates, GDP Forecasts for 2016 and 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Stocks Massive Price Correction - Zeal_LLC
6.Stock Market Predicts Donald Trump Victory - Austin_Galt
7.Next Financial Crisis Will be Far Worse than 2008/09 - Chris_Vermeulen
8.The Gold To Housing Ratio As A Valuation Indicator - Dan_Amerman
9.GDXJ Gold Stocks - A Diamond in the Rough - Rambus_Chartology
10.Gold Boom! End Game Nears As Central Banks Buying Up Gold Mining Companies! - Jeff_Berwick
Last 7 days
US Economy GDP Growth Estimates in Free-Fall: FRBNY Nowcast 2.26% Q3, 1.22% Q4 - 24th Sept 16
Gold and Gold Stocks Corrective Action Continues Despite Dovish Federal Reserve - 24th Sept 16
Global Bonds: Why Our Analyst Says Things Just Got "Monumental" - 24th Sept 16
Where Did All the Money Go? - 23rd Sept 16
Pension Shortfalls Could Be 4X To 7X Greater Than Reported - 23rd Sept 16
Gold Unleashed by the Fed - 23rd Sept 16
Gold around U.S Presidential Elections - 23rd Sept 16
Here’s Why Eastern Europe Is Doomed - 23rd Sept 16
Nasdaq NDX 100 Big Cap Tech Breakout ? - 23rd Sept 16
The Implications of the Italian Banking Crisis Could Be Disastrous - 22nd Sept 16
TwinLakes Theme Park Summer Super 6 FREE Return Entry for Real? - 21st Sept 16
Has the Silver Bullet Run Out of Fire Power? - 21st Sept 16
Frack Sand: The Unsung Hero Of The OPEC Oil War - 21st Sept 16
What’s Happening With Gold? - 21st Sept 16
Gold vs. Stocks and Commodities, Pre-FOMC - 20th Sept 16
BrExit UK Inflation CPI, RPI Forecast 2016, 2017 - 20th Sept 16
European banks may be more important than the Fed this week - 20th Sept 16
Gold, Silver, Stocks and Bonds Grand Ascension or Great Collapse? - 20th Sept 16
Mass Psychology in Action; Instead of Selling Gilead it is Time to Take a Closer Look - 20th Sept 16
Hillary - Finally Well Deserved Recognition for Deplorables - 20th Sept 16
Fascist Business Model: Reich Economics - 19th Sept 16
Multiweek Correction in Gold and Silver Markets Continues - 19th Sept 16
Stock Market May Turn Ugly This Week - 19th Sept 16
China Is Digging Itself into a Deeper Hole - 19th Sept 16
Yellen’s Footnote 8 Would Put Interest Rates on Autopilot - 19th Sept 16
Central Bank Digital Currencies: A Revolution in Banking? - 19th Sept 16
UK Government Surrenders to China / France to Build Nuclear Fukushima Plant At Hinkley Point C - 19th Sept 16
Stock Market Correction Already Over? - 18th Sept 16
American Economics - 18th Sept 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The Power of the Wave Principle

Silver Price Pushing On A String

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Sep 29, 2013 - 10:21 AM GMT

By: Michael_Noonan

Commodities

Little in the way of news has transpired in the past week that could have an impact on the silver market. The main stage has been set for some time, regarding all the known factors affecting silver, to date. There is no need to review any of them, at this point.

What can be noted is that the CFTC has reached the conclusion that the “alleged” manipulation by JPMorgan in the silver market, well documented and presented to the CFTC by Andrew Macguire, was much ado about nothing.. Just like lackey Eric Holder, chief law [un]enforcement official a the Dept of [no]Justice, has not been able to uncover any wrongdoing by Wall Street over the past 5 years, the CFTC ran into the same “bad luck” during its two-year investigation.


What this tells everyone with an interest in owning gold and silver is that the wheels are coming off the central bankers greed cart, and when that happens, silver will be at or above where most imagine it can go. Continue to buy and hold. It is just a matter of time. How much time will be irrelevant, once it everything falls apart, and fall apart it will.

Our latest view of the market was provided in “Central Bank Death Dance, Part I,” [here, if you did not read it]. It presents a less conventional outlook on what not enough people are taking into consideration in trying to understand why silver has not rallied strongly, based on otherwise very strong demand factors.

This article is more abbreviated for content, as a consequence, so we go directly to the charts, and even they have little to add as price moves in a sideways fashion.

The final close for the monthly chart is Monday, but unless price makes a dramatic move up or down, September has been an “inside range” bar. It has done little to erase the stronger August rally bar, and for that reason, a slight edge goes to the bulls. What is critical now is for demand to take over and rally price higher.

Sentiment aside, our expectation is for a more protracted sideways range in the months ahead. We could be wrong, but it is an “odds-on” assessment. As always, we let market activity make the final determination, as it always does.

Not much can be learned from the weekly and daily charts, so we skip to a few intra days to see if there are developing clues. The 90 minute chart shows a strong D/S, [Demand over Supply] day on high volume, 18 September. It did not go much higher, and it set up the upper bound for a TR to follow, unknown at the time.

A few days later, a counter-punch by S/D, [Supply over Demand], on even higher volume. This downside effort also failed to result in any further downside, and it held the lows of the D/S bar, a plus for the buyers.

Not much else can be said as price has since moved sideways for five more TDs, letting us know the buyers and sellers are in balance. What we also know is this form of balance inevitably leads to unbalance, and a directional move can be expected to follow as price moves further along the RHS of the TR, [Right Hand Side of Trading Range.]

Zooming down to a 60 minute chart does not offer a higher degree of clarity, but there are a few developments that appear more positive than otherwise. Keep in mind, this is an intra day chart, and the lasting effect is weaker than a higher time frame, weekly or daily.

The chart comments give what we see. As price moves further along the RHS of a TR, the market is closer to reaching an imbalance, and that is where some low-risk entries can be made, if the set-up is clear enough on the lower time frame charts.

The decline for the latter part of Friday was labored after the EUM rally early in the day. [Ease of Upward Movement]. We pay attention to the how of developing market activity, and the EUM is stronger than the labored “correction” that followed. If we had to take a stand, we would expect more upside on Monday, but that is just a non-committed “guess” because price can open lower. The market is not concerned about our “guesses,” anyway.

We remain lightly committed to the long side, but the sideways activity has not done much for the position. Plan accordingly and follow the market’s direction.

By Michael Noonan

http://edgetraderplus.com

Michael Noonan, mn@edgetraderplus.com, is a Chicago-based trader with over 30 years in the business. His sole approach to analysis is derived from developing market pattern behavior, found in the form of Price, Volume, and Time, and it is generated from the best source possible, the market itself.

© 2013 Copyright Michael Noonan - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Michael Noonan Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife