Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Covid and Democrat Blue Wave Beats Gold - 15th Jan 21
On Regime Change, Reputations, the Markets, and Gold and Silver - 15th Jan 21
US Coronavirus Pandemic Final Catastrophe 2021 - 15th Jan 21
The World’s Next Great Onshore Oil Discovery Could Be Here - 15th Jan 21
UK Coronavirus Final Pandemic Catastrophe 2021 - 14th Jan 21
Here's Why Blind Contrarianism Investing Failed in 2020 - 14th Jan 21
US Yield Curve Relentlessly Steepens, Whilst Gold Price Builds a Handle - 14th Jan 21
NEW UK MOT Extensions or has my Car Plate Been Cloned? - 14th Jan 21
How to Save Money While Decorating Your First House - 14th Jan 21
Car Number Plate Cloned Detective Work - PY16 JXV - 14th Jan 21
Big Oil Missed This, Now It Could Be Worth Billions - 14th Jan 21
Are you a Forex trader who needs a bank account? We have the solution! - 14th Jan 21
Finetero Review – Accurate and Efficient Stock Trading Services? - 14th Jan 21
Gold Price Big Picture Trend Forecast 2021 - 13th Jan 21
Are Covid Lockdowns Bullish or Bearish for Stocks? FTSE 100 in Focus - 13th Jan 21
CONgress "Insurrection" Is Just the Latest False Flag Event from the Globalists - 13th Jan 21
Reflation Trade Heating Up - 13th Jan 21
The Most Important Oil Find Of The Next Decade Could Be Here - 13th Jan 21
Work From Home £10,000 Office Tour – Workspace + Desk Setup 2021 Top Tips - 12th Jan 21
Collect a Bitcoin Dividend Without Owning the King of Cryptos - 12th Jan 21
The BAN Hotlist trade setups show incredible success at the start of 2021, learn how you can too! - 12th Jan 21
Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold – How Much Are They Worth? - 12th Jan 21
SPX Short-term Top Imminent - 12th Jan 21
Is This The Most Exciting Oil Play Of 2021? - 12th Jan 21
Why 2021 Will Be the Year Self-Driving Cars Go Mainstream - 11th Jan 21
Gold Began 2021 With a Bang, Only to Plunge - 11th Jan 21
How to Test Your GPU Temperatures - Running Too Hot - GTX 1650 - Overclockers UK - 11th Jan 21
Life Lesson - The Early Bird Catches the Worm - 11th Jan 21
Precious Metals rally early in 2021 - 11th Jan 21
The Most Exciting Oil Stock For 2021 - 11th Jan 21
Financial Market Forecasts 2021: Navigation in Uncharted Waters - 10th Jan 21
An Urgent Message to All Conservatives, Right-Wingers and Patriots - 10th Jan 21
Despite Signs to the Contrary, Gold Price at or Near Top - 10th Jan 21 -
Ultimate Guide On The 6 Basic Types Of Index Funds - 10th Jan 21
Getting Vaccinated at TESCO - Covid-19 Vaccinations at UK Supermarket Pharmacies and Chemists - 10th Jan 21
Cheers for the 2021 Stock Market and These "Great Expectations" - 9th Jan 21
How to Plan Your Child With Better Education - 9th Jan 21
How To Find The Best Casino - 9th Jan 21
Gold Is Still a Bargain Buy - 8th Jan 20
Gold Price Set to Soar as Hyperinflation Looms - 8th Jan 21
Have Big Dreams? Here's How to Pay for Them - 8th Jan 21
Will the Fed Support Gold Prices in 2021? - 8th Jan 21
Stocks trading strategies for beginners - 8th Jan 21
Who is Buying and Selling Stocks in 2021 - 8th Jan 21
Clap for NHS Heroes 2021 as Incompetent Government Loses Control of Virus Again! - 8th Jan 21
Ultimate Gaming and Home Working PC System Build 2021 - 5950X, RTX 3080, Asus MB - Scan Computers UK - 7th Jan 21
Inflation the bug-bear looking forward through 2021 - 7th Jan 21
ESG ETF Investing Flows Drive Clean Energy to Fresh Highs - 7th Jan 21
5 Financial Market Surprises in 2021 - 7th Jan 21
Time to ‘Reset’ Your Investment Portfolio in 2021? - 7th Jan 21
Bitcoin Price Collapses almost 20% at the start 2021 - 7th Jan 21
Fed Taper Nervous Breakdown - 6th Jan 21
What Will the U.S. Dollar Ring in for 2021? - 6th Jan 21
Stock market frenzy- Ride the bandwagon but be sure to take along some gold coins - 6th Jan 21
Overclockers UK Custom Build Gaming System Review Heat Test and Final Conclusion - 6th Jan 21
Precious Metals Resuming Bull Market, Gold, Silver, GDX Trend Forecasts 2021 - 5th Jan 21
Trump’s Iran-COVID-Gate Anniversary  - 5th Jan 21
2021 May Be A Good Year For The Cannabis / Marijuana Sector - 5th Jan 21
Stock Market Approaching an Important Target - 5th Jan 21
Consumer Prices Are Not Reflecting Higher Inflation; Neither Is The CRB - 5th Jan 21
NEW UK Coronavirus PANIC FULL Lockdown Imminent, All Schools to Close! GCSE Exams Cancelled! - 4th Jan 21
The Year the World Fell Down the Rabbit Hole - 4th Jan 21
A Year Like No Other for Precious Metals… and Everything Else - 4th Jan 21
The Stocks Bull Market is Only Half Completed - 4th Jan 21
An In- Depth Look At Gold Price Trend - 4th Jan 21
Building America Back After a Dark Covid Winter - 4th Jan 21
America's Dark Covid Winter Ahead - 4th Jan 21
Buy a Landrover Discovery Sport in 2021? 3 Year Driving Review - 3rd Jan 21
Stock Market Major Peak in Early April 2021 - 3rd Jan 21
Travel and Holidays 2021 - Flight Knight Cabin Bag Review - 3rd Jan 21
�� Happy New Year 2021 Fireworks and Drone Light Show from London and Sheffied - BBC�� - 2nd Jan 2
The Next IMMINENT Global Catastrophe After Coronavirus - 1st Jan 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

The Investment Rule of 72 for Successful Stock Market Investing

InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest Nov 14, 2013 - 12:41 PM GMT

By: Christopher_Quigley

InvestorEducation

The issue of successful stock market investment affects us all. Even if we are not directly engaged in the industry, all of us will need some form of pension to fund our retirement. Whether we like it or not most of our retirement funds will find their way into the financial markets. For this very reason, the issue of pensions has moved politically centre stage, in particular the investment strategies used to direct pension funds. Due to mismanagement, mainly over the last decade, many retirement portfolios have become under-funded at best, or, at worst, totally bust. This situation is a direct result of the managed funds having been speculated rather than invested. Many cynics will say that the whole investment environment today has more of the characteristics of a casino than of a professional market of equities and, therefore, they doubt that one can ever achieve a faithful and fair return on capital. However, this view is erroneous. This essay sets out to explain how to achieve superior stock market investment returns through a simple yet powerful investment rule: “the rule of 72”. This rule is based on investment and not speculation yet if you faithfully apply it your returns, over time, will be worthwhile. Many believe that such degree of return is only possible through “speculative activity”. They are wrong and I will explain.


Benjamin Graham, the father of security analysis, and mentor of Warren Buffett, long believed in the stock market as a means to achieve financial freedom. The wealth he accumulated and the school of successful investment gurus he educated are testament to his insight and genius. The key to his formula has always been one simple concept: VALUE. His central message never changed and in a financial community which bores easily, his conservative investment style became "classical" and then "old fashioned". Graham ultimately derided the fads and trends that engulfed Wall Street and he eventually gave up trading and managing funds. However, his "baton" of value was spectacularly taken up by his acolyte, Warren Buffett, who went on to become the most successful investor of all time.

Buffett, like Graham, believes the policy of investing does not require high qualities of insight or forethought, as long as some simple rules are applied. In essence these simple rules are:

             1.         Safety of Capital

             2.         Adequacy of Return

An operation that does not seek both of the above is not an investment but a speculation.

Now in today's complex, volatile, media-driven and fast-moving market environment how does one actually apply these simple rules? The essential thing to realise is that when you buy an equity, you are purchasing part of a business. Investment is most intelligent when it is most business like. For my part, the best way to achieve this business-like goal is to focus on price, and through systematic analysis of this factor, the grail of value will be discovered.

Investment Filters

At Wealthbuilder, for pension purposes, we educate clients in how to review up to three thousand stocks every quarter. Using a number of filters, equity prospects are identified and compiled into watch lists. Then, through the use of basic technical analysis, appropriate buy-in and sell-out points are pinpointed. The main criteria that are used to filter these stocks are:

             1.         Financial Strength

             2.         Earnings Growth

             3.         Business Model Strength & Sustainability

             4.         Dividend Yield

             5.         Dividend Growth

             6.         Return On Capital

             7.         Price/Earnings Ratio

Of these seven elements, earnings growth and dividend yield are the most important. Why?

The big driver of investment returns over time is not figuring out which sector is going to do best, or which country will surpass the rest, or what investment style will be in vogue, or which consumer group will prevail. No, the biggest driver is:  EARNINGS GROWTH AND INVESTMENT INCOME RECEIVED AND RE-INVESTED. The facts are that with dividend yielding stocks, over a rolling twenty-year period, a significant element of your return will be based on income received. However, in the main, the major part of your gains will come from earning growth because the fundamental axiom of financial dogma is: “where earning go share price will eventually follow”.

Thus it is crucial to your investment success that you find those great companies that give great yet sustainable returns (earning growth plus good dividends) over the long term. The profile of such profit generating institutions can only come from companies in large markets with proven products or services, areas such as: financial services, consumer staples, healthcare, energy and insurance.

Our ideal growth targets?

Earnings growth in the 12% per annum range is our ideal goal. Add to this a dividend yield of 2% and you get our combined investment objective of 14% growth per annum. In summary our investment formula is as follows:

Financially Strong Businesses + Large Growing Sustainable Markets +

Growing Earnings + Good Dividend Yield + Good Dividend Growth =

                                           Superior Value

The rule of 72.

Why do we look for 14% growth? Well to understand this let me now introduce the rule of 72. The "Rule of 72is a simplified way to determine how many years an investment will take to double, given a set annual rate of interest. Thus by dividing 72 by the annual rate of return, investors can get a rough estimate of how long it will take for the initial investment to “double” itself.

For example, the rule of 72 states that $1 invested at 10% would take 7.2 years to turn into $2 (72/10 = 7.2).

Thus our target annual rate of return of 14% requires 5 years for “doublings” to take effect. (See example below using approximations):

Year 1.                         1000 X 1.14    =          1140

Year 2.                         1140 X 1.14    =          1300

Year 3.                         1300 X 1.14    =          1482

Year 4.                         1482 X 1.14    =         1689

Year 5.                         1689 X 1.14    =          1926

The average “pension investment” cycle is 20 years, therefore if you focus on the annual investment target of 14% you can get 4 “doublings” of your initial investment over the 20 year period. Thus through the “magic” of compounding a 100,000.00 dollar investment grows into a handsome pension fund of 1.6 million dollars after 4 such “doublings”.

Year 1-5.                     100,000.00 X 2           =          200,000.00

Year 6-10.                   200,000.00 X 2           =          400,000.00

Year 11-15.                 400,000.00 X 2           =          800,000.00

Year 16-20.                 800,000.00 X 2           =          1,600,000.00

We believe such returns are necessary because over the next 20 years, according, to John Williams of ShadowStats.Com, inflation will not be a benign 1-2% (see CPI rate) but 7-9% (see SGS rate) due to the ongoing Quantitative Easing policies being executed in the USA, Latin America, Canada, Japan, Britain and the EU.

Unless investors have an aggressive strategy to find and stay invested in superior companies giving annual growth rates in our target range their “life-styles” are going to be significantly altered by inflation going forward. Using the ShadowStats above, when we apply the rule of 72 to an annual 7% inflation rate we can reasonably estimate that over the next 20 years there will be two doublings of general price levels (72 divided by 7 is approximately 10. 20 years divided by 10 is 2). This will have a cathartic effect on future society. To be fore-warned is to be fore-armed. It is our opinion that the best way to protect yourself against this monetary crisis is to become a smart investor. Time is of the essence.

Conclusion

Despite appearing to be a complex matter, the path to investment success is quite simple, as pointed out by Graham all those years ago. The financial achievements of his students: Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Ed Anderson, Bill Ryane, Rick Guerin and Stan Perlmeter, are testament to the enduring power of his investment philosophy. By applying our earnings growth and dividend investment policy the average investor, using discipline and patience, has within his or her grasp the power formula to earn superior returns in the stock market and thereby win for themselves and their families financial freedom and independence.

By Christopher M. Quigley

B.Sc., M.M.I.I. Grad., M.A.
http://www.wealthbuilder.ie

Mr. Quigley was born in 1958 in Dublin, Ireland. He holds a Bachelor Degree in Accounting and Management from Trinity College Dublin and is a graduate of the Marketing Institute of Ireland. He commenced investing in the stock market in 1989 in Belmont, California where he lived for 6 years. He has developed the Wealthbuilder investment and trading course over the last two decades as a result of research, study and experience. This system marries fundamental analysis with technical analysis and focuses on momentum, value and pension strategies.

Since 2007 Mr. Quigley has written over 80 articles which have been published on popular web   sites based in California, New York, London and Dublin.

Mr. Quigley is now lives in Dublin, Ireland and Tampa Bay, Florida.

© 2013 Copyright Christopher M. Quigley - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Christopher M. Quigley Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules