Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.BrExit House Prices Crash, Flat or Rally? UK Housing Market Affordability Crisis - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Stocks Bull Market Climbs Wall of Worry, Bubble? When Will it End? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Gold Price Is Now On Its Way To All-Time Highs - Hubert_Moolman
4.Deutche Bank Stock Price Crash - The EU Has Problems Far Beyond the Brexit - Harry_Dent
5.UK interest Rate PANIC CUT! As Banks Prepare to Steal Customer Deposits - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Gold and Silver Bull Phase 1 : Final Impulse Dead Ahead - Plunger
7.Central Bankers Fighting An Unprecedented Global Economic Slowdown - Gordon_T_Long
8.Putin Hacking Hillary for Trump, Russia's Manchurian Candidate? - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Stock Market Insiders Are Secretly Selling, Cycle Top Next Month - Chris_Vermeulen
10.Gold Sector - Is it time to Back up the Truck? – Mortgage the Farm? - Peter_Degraaf
Free Silver
Last 7 days
The Pro Hillary Supporter Challenge - 30th Aug 16
Semiconductor Stocks Sector, Updated - 30th Aug 16
Stagflation to Force People into Gold - 30th Aug 16
Late-August Calm a Breeding Ground for Gold Bullion Bank Shenanigans - 30th Aug 16
Stock Market Long View - 30th Aug 16
Fundamentals for Uranium look great; is the Uranium Market ready to soar? - 29th Aug 16
3 Ways to Profit from the Stressed-Out American Consumer - 29th Aug 16
Have The Markets Become Too Big to Fail? - 29th Aug 16
Pakistan Booming House Prices Housing Market Mania Kabza Mafia Warning! - 29th Aug 16
Post Yellen = Market Confusion - 28th Aug 16
Theresa May Instructs Police, NHS Gp's, Public Sector To Stop Racial Discrimination in Service Delivery - 28th Aug 16
Ignore Yellen and Buy the Dip in Precious Metals - 27th Aug 16
SPX Downtrend Should be Underway - 27th Aug 16
Unraveling the Secular Economic Stagnation Story - 27th Aug 16
The Precious Metals Sector and the Fed. . . - 27th Aug 16
Stock Market - All Is Calm, All Is Not Right - 27th Aug 16
Gold Junior Stocks Q2 2016 Fundamentals - 26th Aug 16
Buy Gold’s August Dip? Gold’s Monthly Sweet Spot In September - 26th Aug 16
The IMF’s Internal Audit Reveals Its Incompetence and Massive Rule Breaking - 26th Aug 16
Commodities Are the Best Bargain Now—Here’s What to Buy - 26th Aug 16
Why I Left Canada and Became A Citizen of the Dominican Republic - 26th Aug 16
The GLD vs GOLD - 26th Aug 16
Can Stocks Survive Without Stimulus? - 25th Aug 16
Why Putin Might Be on His Way Out - 25th Aug 16
Bond Guru Gary Shilling - The Bond Market Rally of a Lifetime - 25th Aug 16
A Zombie Financial System, Black Swans and a Gold Share Correction - 25th Aug 16
OPEC’s Output Freeze: What Has Changed Since Doha? - 25th Aug 16
Merkel Prepares For a Deliberate Crisis While White House Plans For a Disastrous Succession - 24th Aug 16
Suspicious Reversal in Gold Price - 23rd Aug 16
If Trump Can’t Pull Off a Victory, Expect a Civil War - 23rd Aug 16
Ceding ICANN and Internet Control to Globalists - 23rd Aug 16
How to Spot an Oversold Stock Market - 23rd Aug 16
Gerald Celente Sees Worst Market Crash, New Military Conflict, Gold Spike to $2,000/oz - 23rd Aug 16
EU Olympics Medals Table Propaganda Includes BrExit Britain - 22nd Aug 16
BrExit Win's Britain Olympics Success Freedom Dividend, Economy Next - 22nd Aug 16
Stock Market Top Forming, but Slowly - 22nd Aug 16
(Really) Alternative Banking Systems - 22nd Aug 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

US Economy - 3 Secret Charts

Junior Gold Mining Stocks Have Bottomed

Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014 Jan 16, 2014 - 07:22 PM GMT

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Commodities

There is no need to beat around the bush. Junior mining stocks have bottomed. The bear market is over. Sure we could be wrong. We’ve been wrong before and will be again. However, the evidence is too compelling and is growing by the day.


The TSX Venture (CDNX) is the market for juniors in Canada. The market consists of exploration companies focused on precious metals and other minerals, energy companies and some technology companies. It’s not a perfect indicator for the junior mining industry but it’s good enough for the experts. On Thursday the CDNX closed at a nine month high. No, that is not a misprint. The junior market reached a nine month high. It bottomed in late June, made a higher low in December and has surged 10% since.

For an American, GDXJ is the proxy for junior gold stocks or junior miners. I like to think of GDXJ as the “senior” or established juniors. The CDNX consists of many stocks trading under $1 and a $100M market cap while GDXJ is mostly comprised of companies in the $100M to $500M market cap range.

GDXJ declined 81% from its April 2011 peak to its December 2013 bottom. As we noted several weeks ago, GDXJ tried to penetrate its December low three times and failed. The market has since rallied back above the previous (June) low. Given the severity of the bear in terms of price and time, extreme negative sentiment and recent bullish price action I believe it is highly likely that the bottom is in.

Our frame of reference for the bear, the gold stock bear analogs chart continues to suggest that the bear market in senior gold stocks is all but over.

The juniors (both CDNX and GDXJ) peaked in April or five months before the senior gold producers. Hence, it makes sense that the juniors would bottom first. The assertion from the analogs chart (that the seniors may have bottomed or are very close) gives us further confidence that the juniors have bottomed.

Most of the stocks that we follow bottomed in June. The following chart, which was sent to premium subscribers is an equal weighted index of 15 of our favorite gold and silver stocks. The index bottomed in late June 2013 and made a strong higher low in December. It would have to decline 26% to test the June low.

Extreme bearish sentiment, compelling valuations and an extreme oversold condition can create a compelling contrarian opportunity. However, that opportunity can remain far fetched without some positive price action. We now have the positive price action that allows us to call a bottom in the mining stocks and strongly so in the junior gold stocks. The CDNX looks to have made a real double bottom and closed at a nine month high. GDXJ reversed course after failing to continue a breakdown when the time was ripe. Moreover, as evidenced by our top 15 index, the stronger and higher quality companies are showing leadership. The risk has shifted from getting caught in a final plunge to missing out on the rebound.

If you'd be interested in professional guidance in this endeavor, then we invite you to learn more about our service.

Good Luck!

Email: Jordan@TheDailyGold.com
Service Link: http://thedailygold.com/premium

Bio: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT  is a Chartered Market Technician, a member of the Market Technicians Association and from 2010-2013 an official contributor to the CME Group, the largest futures exchange in the world. He is the publisher and editor of TheDailyGold Premium, a publication which emphaszies market timing and stock selection for the sophisticated investor.  Jordan's work has been featured in CNBC, Barrons, Financial Times Alphaville, and his editorials are regularly published in 321gold, Gold-Eagle, FinancialSense, GoldSeek, Kitco and Yahoo Finance. He is quoted regularly in Barrons. Jordan was a speaker at PDAC 2012, the largest mining conference in the world.

Jordan Roy-Byrne Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife