Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021 - 20th July 19
MICROSOFT Cortana, Azure AI Platform Machine Intelligence Stock Investing Video - 20th July 19
Africa Rising – Population Explosion, Geopolitical and Economic Consquences - 20th July 19
Gold Mining Stocks Q2’19 Results Analysis - 20th July 19
This Is Your Last Chance to Dump Netflix Stock - 19th July 19
Gold and US Stock Mid Term Election and Decade Cycles - 19th July 19
Precious Metals Big Picture, as Silver Gets on its Horse - 19th July 19
This Technology Everyone Laughed Off Is Quietly Changing the World - 19th July 19
Green Tech Stocks To Watch - 19th July 19
Double Top In Transportation and Metals Breakout Are Key Stock Market Topping Signals - 18th July 19
AI Machine Learning PC Custom Build Specs for £2,500 - Scan Computers 3SX - 18th July 19
The Best “Pick-and-Shovel” Play for the Online Grocery Boom - 18th July 19
Is the Stock Market Rally Floating on Thin Air? - 18th July 19
Biotech Stocks With Near Term Catalysts - 18th July 19
SPX Consolidating, GBP and CAD Could be in Focus - 18th July 19
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis - 17th July 19
Financial Crisis Stocks Bear Market Is Scary Close - 17th July 19
Want to See What's Next for the US Economy? Try This. - 17th July 19
What to do if You Blow the Trading Account - 17th July 19
Bitcoin Is Far Too Risky for Most Investors - 17th July 19
Core Inflation Rises but Fed Is Going to Cut Rates. Will Gold Gain? - 17th July 19
Boost your Trading Results - FREE eBook - 17th July 19
This Needs To Happen Before Silver Really Takes Off - 17th July 19
NASDAQ Should Reach 8031 Before Topping - 17th July 19
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator - 16th July 19
Could Trump Really Win the 2020 US Presidential Election? - 16th July 19
Gold Stocks Forming Bullish Consolidation - 16th July 19
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like 1995 or 2007? - 16th July 19
Red Rock Entertainment Investments: Around the world in a day with Supreme Jets - 16th July 19
Silver Has Already Gone from Weak to Strong Hands - 15th July 19
Top Equity Mutual Funds That Offer Best Returns - 15th July 19
Gold’s Breakout And The US Dollar - 15th July 19
Financial Markets, Iran, U.S. Global Hegemony - 15th July 19
U.S Bond Yields Point to a 40% Rise in SPX - 15th July 19
Corporate Earnings may Surprise the Stock Market – Watch Out! - 15th July 19
Stock Market Interest Rate Cut Prevails - 15th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State July 2019 Video - 15th July 19
Why Summer is the Best Time to be in the Entertainment Industry - 15th July 19
Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks - 14th July 19
Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold - 14th July 19
The Problem with Keynesian Economics - 14th July 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Gold and Silver Stocks Sector New Uptrend - Juniors to Lead the Charge

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014 Feb 03, 2014 - 10:37 AM GMT

By: Clive_Maund

Commodities

We sold our Precious Metals sector holdings on Monday 27th January, which we had bought just a few weeks earlier, in order to sidestep a possible reaction. The reason for this was that both gold and silver had arrived at important trendline resistance and some of our juniors had become critically overbought after strong gains. Were we correct to sell at that point, in view of the building major uptrend across the sector?


The answer to that question depends on what you are looking at. With respect to gold and silver and leveraged ETFs in them, the answer is yes, as they have reacted back, although, thus far at least, the reaction back in gold is not large. With respect to stocks the picture is mixed as while most have reacted back, others have stood still and some have even started higher over the past several days. These latter may be "jumping the gun" however, as gold and silver have yet to break out of their downtrends.

The purpose of this article is to paint as complete and accurate a picture as possible of where we stand right now with respect to the outlook for gold and silver, Precious Metals stocks, and the broad stockmarket, before then going on to list, for subscribers, the strongest junior mining stocks then can be expected to race ahead once gold and silver do break out to the upside.

Let's start with gold. Our 8-month chart makes plain why we sold a week ago - it had then arrived at a classic target at the upper boundary of its intermediate downtrend in force from last August. It has since started to turn down again, and, with its moving averages still in bearish alignment, the probability is considered high that it will now react further towards the key support shown near its late June lows - but it shouldn't drop below these lows. One possibility that we should be aware of is that a small Head-and-Shoulders bottom has been forming in gold from mid-November. If true then gold could turn up soon and break out from the downtrend, perhaps without dropping back any further.

Gold 8-Month Daily Chart

The 2-year for gold is interesting as it shows that the situation is becomes technically "tight" with the price being squeezed into a corner between its falling downtrend line and the horizontal support originating at the June - July lows. Since these lines are rapidly converging it follows that we must have resolution of the current standoff soon, within 2 months absolute maximum, which will end with either a breakdown to lower levels, or a breakout marking the start of the major uptrend that we are expecting for reasons that will become clear as we continue. The 2-year chart also shows to advantage the potential Double Bottom that is completing with the June - July lows.

Gold 2-Year Daily Chart

The long-term 14-year chart for gold makes it very clear why it is at an excellent point to turn up, after its gruelling reaction of the past several years - it appears to be basing just above its long-term uptrend line. You can argue until the cows come home about the reasons for this long and deep reaction, but one thing is clear - while it was going on an awful lot of gold has made the long journey from western countries, whose banks are anxious to see a low gold price, to eastern powers like China who are going to sit on it, and probably use it to back their currencies when western currencies fail.

Gold 14-Year Daily Chart

Turning now to silver we can see on its 8-month chart that it has been considerably weaker than gold in the recent past, as after nudging sideways towards its downtrend line and finally touching it, it has dropped away and looks like it is headed for the support shown near the June - July lows, which is not far beneath and possibly lower to the trendline support shown on the 14-year chart farther down the page.

Silver 8-Month Daily Chart

As with gold, the 2-year chart shows the silver price being forced into a corner by the descending trendline converging with the horizontal support level, which will force either a breakdown or a breakout, within a little over 2 months, maximum.

Silver 2-Year Daily Chart

Unlike gold, silver has not yet arrived at its long-term uptrend support line shown on its 14-year chart, although it is already dug into strong support. What this means is that there is some chance that it will break below its June - July lows short-term before it turns up again, perhaps bottoming at about $16.50 - $17. Thus we should not be fooled in the event that it does break below its June- July lows, as any such move is likely to be "false" and followed by a rapid reversal to the upside.

Silver 14-Year Daily Chart

Turning now to mining stocks we see on the 2-year chart for the GDX ETF, which is a useful proxy, that it stalled after hitting its downtrend line a week ago, and may now react back some, especially as its moving averages are still in bearish alignment. However, this is not a weak chart. The marked convergence of the downtrend is strongly bullish, and the persistent high volume of recent months is a sign that it has been bottoming. It could now break out at any time, although our assessment is that a (probably minor) reaction is likely first. Other stocks indices like the HUI and XAU are already verging on breakouts, although so far by an unconvincing margin, so they could drop back.

Market Vectors Gold Miners 2-Year Daily Chart

Now this is where things start to get really interesting, for as we can see on the 2-year chart for the GDXJ, which is the ETF for the juniors, it has risen quite strongly this year, but unlike the larger stocks, it has risen on big record volume, which is a sure sign of a trend change. We had observed in mid-late December that the better junior mining stocks were absurdly oversold, and went ahead and bought a raft of them, which worked out very well. Juniors outperformed other larger mining stocks in the rally of recent weeks and dramatically outperformed gold. What we can infer from this is that juniors are going to lead stocks which are going to lead gold (and silver) in the early stages of the upcoming major sector uptrend, so if you are out to make as much money as possible this is where you should be. The fundamental reason for this simple - after being trampled into the dust, juniors mining stocks are amongst the most undervalued stocks it is possible to buy. Therefore when the sector recovers, the best of them are going to make stellar recovery moves. These are the ones which we are going to focus on in the early stages of the sector uptrend.

Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Daily Chart

The following 8-month chart of the GDXJ over gold shows the dramatic outperformance of juniors relative to gold on the recent runup, and makes it abundantly plain why they are the place to be during the early stages of the expected major PM sector uptrend.

GDXJ:Gold Daily Chart

If you have read all of the above you will know exactly where we stand in relation to the upcoming sector uptrend, and why juniors look set to - and already are - leading the charge. Don't be put off the best ones by them looking expensive compared to a month or so ago, although we may see better prices soon as detailed above - the sharp advance is a sign of strength, and if you think they look expensive on short-term charts, trying looking at their long-term charts and you should see that they have much further to go. Also, don't make the mistake of buying the ones that haven't moved on the grounds that they are cheaper - if they didn't move, it's probably for a reason - that they are duds, saddled with huge unpayable debts or whatever.

Alright, that's enough of the theory, time to get practical. Here's the list of the strongest junior Precious Metals stocks....

More follows for subscribers...

By Clive Maund
CliveMaund.com

For billing & subscription questions: subscriptions@clivemaund.com

© 2013 Clive Maund - The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maunds opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications.

Clive Maund Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules