Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
The Copper/Gold Ratio Would Change the Macro - 21st Oct 20
Are We Entering Stagflation That Will Boost Gold Price - 21st Oct 20
Crude Oil Price Stalls In Resistance Zone - 21st Oct 20
High-Profile Billionaire Gives Urgent Message to Stock Investors - 21st Oct 20
What's it Like to be a Budgie - Unique in a Cage 4K VR 360 - 21st Oct 20
Auto Trading: A Beginner Guide to Automation in Forex - 21st Oct 20
Gold Price Trend Forecast into 2021, Is Intel Dying?, Can Trump Win 2020? - 20th Oct 20
Gold Asks Where Is The Inflation - 20th Oct 20
Last Chance for this FREE Online Trading Course Worth $129 value - 20th Oct 20
More Short-term Stock Market Weakness Ahead - 20th Oct 20
Dell S3220DGF 32 Inch Curved Gaming Monitor Unboxing and Stand Assembly and Range of Movement - 20th Oct 20
Best Retail POS Software In Australia - 20th Oct 20
From Recession to an Ever-Deeper One - 19th Oct 20
Wales Closes Border With England, Stranded Motorists on Severn Bridge? Covid-19 Police Road Blocks - 19th Oct 20
Commodity Bull Market Cycle Starts with Euro and Dollar Trend Changes - 19th Oct 20
Stock Market Melt-Up Triggered a Short Squeeze In The NASDAQ and a Utilities Breakout - 19th Oct 20
Silver is Like Gold on Steroids - 19th Oct 20
Countdown to Election Mediocrity: Why Gold and Silver Can Protect Your Wealth - 19th Oct 20
“Hypergrowth” Is Spilling Into the Stock Market Like Never Before - 19th Oct 20
Is Oculus Quest 2 Good Upgrade for Samsung Gear VR Users? - 19th Oct 20
Low US Dollar Risky for Gold - 17th Oct 20
US 2020 Election: Are American's ready for Trump 2nd Term Twilight Zone Presidency? - 17th Oct 20
Custom Ryzen 5950x, 5900x, 5800x , RTX 3080, 3070 64gb DDR4 Gaming PC System Build Specs - 17th Oct 20
Gold Jumps above $1,900 Again - 16th Oct 20
US Economic Recovery Is in Need of Some Rescue - 16th Oct 20
Why You Should Focus on Growth Stocks Today - 16th Oct 20
Why Now is BEST Time to Upgrade Your PC System for Years - Ryzen 5000 CPUs, Nvidia RTX 3000 GPU's - 16th Oct 20
Beware of Trump’s October (November?) Election Surprise - 15th Oct 20
Stock Market SPY Retesting Critical Resistance From Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc - 15th Oct 20
Fed Chairman Begs Congress to Stimulate Beleaguered US Economy - 15th Oct 20
Is Gold Market Going Back Into the 1970s? - 15th Oct 20
Things you Should know before Trade Cryptos - 15th Oct 20
Gold and Silver Price Ready For Another Rally Attempt - 14th Oct 20
Do Low Interest Rates Mean Higher Stocks? Not so Fast… - 14th Oct 20
US Debt Is Going Up but Leaving GDP Behind - 14th Oct 20
Dell S3220DGF 31.5 Inch VA Gaming Monitor Amazon Prime Day Bargain Price! But WIll it Get Delivered? - 14th Oct 20
Karcher K7 Pressure Washer Amazon Prime Day Bargain 51% Discount! - 14th Oct 20
Top Strategies Day Traders Adopt - 14th Oct 20
AMD is KILLING Intel as Ryzen Zen 3 Takes Gaming Crown, AMD Set to Achieve CPU Market Dominance - 13th Oct 20
Amazon Prime Day Real or Fake Sales to Get Rid of Dead Stock? - 13th Oct 20
Stock Market Short-term Top Expected - 13th Oct 20
Fun Stuff to Do with a Budgie or Parakeet, a Child's Best Pet Bird Friend - 13th Oct 20
Who Will Win the Race to Open a Casino in Japan? - 13th Oct 20
Fear Grips Stock Market Short-Sellers -- What to Make of It - 12th Oct 20
For Some Remote Workers, It Pays to Stay Home… If Home Stays Local - 12th Oct 20
A Big Move In Silver: Watch The Currency Markets - 12th Oct 20
Precious Metals and Commodities Comprehensive - 11th Oct 20
The Election Does Not Matter, Stick With Stock Winners Like Clean Energy - 11th Oct 20
Gold Stocks Are Cheap, But Not for Long - 11th Oct 20
Gold Miners Ready to Fall Further - 10th Oct 29
What Happens When the Stumble-Through Economy Stalls - 10th Oct 29
This Is What The Stock Market Is Saying About Trump’s Re-Election - 10th Oct 29
Here Is Everything You Must Know About Insolvency - 10th Oct 29
Sheffield Coronavirus Warning - UK Heading for Higher Covid-19 Infections than April Peak! - 10th Oct 29
Q2 Was Disastrous. But What’s Next for the US Economy – and Gold? - 9th Oct 20
Q4 Market Forecast: How to Invest in a World Awash in Debt - 9th Oct 20
A complete paradigm shift will make gold the generational trade - 9th Oct 20
Why You Should Look for Stocks Climbing Out of a “Big Base” - 9th Oct 20
UK Coronavirus Pandemic Wave 2 - Daily Covid-19 Positive Test Cases Forecast - 9th Oct 20
Ryzen ZEN 3: The Final Nail in Intel's Coffin! Cinebench Scores 5300x, 5600x, 5800x, 5900x 5950x - 9th Oct 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Oil Trading Alert: Crude Oil Price Extends Declines

Commodities / Crude Oil Feb 04, 2014 - 05:03 PM GMT

By: Nadia_Simmons

Commodities

On Monday, crude oil lost 0.84% as weaker-than-expected U.S. and Chinese economic data fueled concerns over crude oil demand. Thanks to this news, light crude closed the day below $97 for the first time since Jan 27.

Data released over the weekend showed that China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index dropped to a six-month low, falling to 50.5 in January from 51.0 in December. This weaker-than-expected numbers raised questions about economic growth in the world's second largest oil consumer (after the U.S.) and weighted on the price of light crude.



On top of that, yesterday's data showed that U.S. manufacturing PMI dropped to 53.7 in January (from December's 55.0). Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management said that its manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 51.3 in January (a seven-month low), while analysts expected the index to moved down to 56.4. The above data added to recent worries about weakness in emerging markets and fueled concerns over crude oil demand sending crude oil below $97.

Having discussed the above, let's move on to the technical changes in the crude oil market (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).



In our last Oil Trading Alert, we wrote:

(...) crude oil extended its decline and (...) slipped below the previous high, which is not a positive signal - especially when we take into account the fact that Friday's drop materialized on relatively large volume. On top of that, the CCI and Stochastic Oscillator are overbought and close to generating sell signals. Connecting the dots, it seems that a bigger pullback is just around the corner.

As you see on the above chart, crude oil extended losses and approached the 50-day moving once again. If this strong support encourages buyers to push the order button, we will likely see a corrective upswing in the coming days. However, if it is broken, we will see further deterioration and the next downside target will be the Jan.27 low at $95.21. At this point it's worth noting that yesterday's downswing materialized on large volume, which confirms the strength of the sellers. Additionally, the CCI and Stochastic Oscillator generated sell signal, which supports the latter scenario.

Having discussed the current situation in light crude, let's take a look at WTI Crude Oil (the CFD).



Quoting our last Oil Trading Alert:

(...) the CFD formed a bearish engulfing pattern (...) such candlestick formation triggered a strong sell off at the end of December. From this perspective, it seems that if oil bulls do not manage to invalidate this bearish pattern, we may see similar price action in the coming days (...) the CCI and Stochastic Oscillator generated sell signals, which is another bearish sign (we saw similar situation in previous months and back then it had a negative impact on the price). Please note that the nearest support is the 50-day moving average (currently around $96.37), which corresponds to the Jan.29 low.

Looking at the above chart, we see that WTI Crude Oil extended its decline, dropped below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and reached the 50-day moving average. As you see on the daily chart, this strong support encouraged oil bulls to act and triggered a small (at least at the moment when these words are written) corrective upswing earlier today. Despite this growth, the CFD still remains below the previously-broken 200-day moving average, which serves as resistance. Additionally, sell signals remain in play supporting the bearish case.

At this point, we should consider two scenarios. On one hand, as long as the CFD remains above the 50-day moving average, further declines are limited and we may see another attempt to move higher (even to the 200-day moving average). On the other hand, we should keep in mind that oil bears have more favorable factors on their side and if the 50-day moving average is broken, we will see a drop to (at least) the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level based on the recent rally.

Summing up, the situation has deteriorated as the CCI and Stochastic Oscillator generated sell signals and crude oil declined (on large volume) to the 50-day moving average. As mentioned earlier, if this strong support encourages oil bulls to act, we will likely see a corrective upswing in the coming day (or days). However, if it is broken, we will see further deterioration and the next downside target will be the Jan.27 low at $95.21. Please note that the current situation in the CFD is similar to what we noticed in the case of light crude, and WTI Crude Oil doesn't give us any particular clues about future's moves in crude oil. Nevertheless, in both cases oil bears have more favorable factors on their side and it seems that further deterioration is just around the corner.

Very short-term outlook: mixed
Short-term outlook: bullish
MT outlook: bullish
LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term): In our opinion, there were no significant changes in crude oil that justify opening short or long positions at the moment. We will keep you informed should anything change, or should we see a confirmation/invalidation of the above.

Thank you.

Nadia Simmons

Sunshine Profits‘ Contributing Author

Oil Investment Updates
Oil Trading Alerts

* * * * *

 

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Nadia Simmons and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Nadia Simmons and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Nadia Simmons is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Nadia Simmons’ reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Nadia Simmons, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules