Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
The Fed Follows Trump's Tweets, And Does The Right Thing - 24th Mar 19
Yield Curves, 2yr Yield, SPX Stocks and a Crack Up Boom? - 24th Mar 19
Risk/Reward in Silver Favors Buying Now, Not Waiting for Big Moves - 23rd Mar 19
Similarities Between Stock Market Today and Previous Bull Market Tops - 23rd Mar 19
Stock Market DOW Seasonal Trend Analysis - 23rd Mar 19
US Dollar Breakdown on Fed Was Much Worse Than It Looks - 23rd Mar 19
Gold Mid-Tier GDXJ Stocks Fundamentals - 23rd Mar 19
Which Currency Pairs Stand to Benefit from Prevailing Risk Aversion? - 23rd Mar 19
If You Get These 3 Things Right, You’ll Never Have to Worry About Money - 22nd Mar 19
March 2019 Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis - 22nd Mar 19
Turkey Tourist Fakes Market Bargains Haggling Top Tips - 22nd Mar 19
Next Recession: Finding A 48% Yield Amid The Ruins - 22nd Mar 19
Your Future Stock Returns Might Unpleasantly Surprise You - 22nd Mar 19
Fed Acknowledges “Recession Risks”. Run for the Hills! - 22nd Mar 19
Will Bridging Loans Grow in Demand and Usage in 2019? - 22nd Mar 19
Does Fed Know Something Gold Investors Do Not Know? - 21st Mar 19
Gold …Some Confirmations to Watch For - 21st Mar 19
UKIP No Longer About BrExit, Becomes BNP 2.0, Muslim Hate Party - 21st Mar 19
A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security - 20th Mar 19
The Secret to Funding a Green New Deal - 20th Mar 19
Vietnam, Part I: Colonialism and National Liberation - 20th Mar 19
Will the Fed Cut its Interest Rate Forecast, Pushing Gold Higher? - 20th Mar 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19
Tommy Robinson Looks Set to Become New UKIP Leader - 16th Mar 19
Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - 16th Mar 19
Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult - 16th Mar 19
UKIP Brexit Facebook Groups Reveling in the New Zealand Terror Attacks Blaming Muslim Victims - 16th Mar 19
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index - 16th Mar 19
Islamophobic Hate Preachers Tommy Robinson and Katie Hopkins have Killed UKIP and Brexit - 16th Mar 19
Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally - 15th Mar 19
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 - 15th Mar 19
Setting up a Business Just Got Easier - 15th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video - 15th Mar 19
Gold Warning - Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - Part 1 - 15th Mar 19
UK Weather SHOCK - Trees Dropping Branches onto Cars in Stormy Winds - Sheffield - 15th Mar 19
Best Time to Trade Forex - 15th Mar 19
Why the Green New Deal Will Send Uranium Price Through the Roof - 14th Mar 19
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? - 14th Mar 19
US Conservatism - 14th Mar 19
Gold in the Age of High-speed Electronic Trading - 14th Mar 19
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - 14th Mar 19
Why Walmart Will Crush Amazon - 14th Mar 19
2019 Economic Predictions - 14th Mar 19
Tax Avoidance Bills Sent to Thousands of Workers - 14th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

Oil Trading Alert: Crude Oil Price Extends Declines

Commodities / Crude Oil Feb 04, 2014 - 05:03 PM GMT

By: Nadia_Simmons

Commodities

On Monday, crude oil lost 0.84% as weaker-than-expected U.S. and Chinese economic data fueled concerns over crude oil demand. Thanks to this news, light crude closed the day below $97 for the first time since Jan 27.

Data released over the weekend showed that China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index dropped to a six-month low, falling to 50.5 in January from 51.0 in December. This weaker-than-expected numbers raised questions about economic growth in the world's second largest oil consumer (after the U.S.) and weighted on the price of light crude.



On top of that, yesterday's data showed that U.S. manufacturing PMI dropped to 53.7 in January (from December's 55.0). Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management said that its manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 51.3 in January (a seven-month low), while analysts expected the index to moved down to 56.4. The above data added to recent worries about weakness in emerging markets and fueled concerns over crude oil demand sending crude oil below $97.

Having discussed the above, let's move on to the technical changes in the crude oil market (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).



In our last Oil Trading Alert, we wrote:

(...) crude oil extended its decline and (...) slipped below the previous high, which is not a positive signal - especially when we take into account the fact that Friday's drop materialized on relatively large volume. On top of that, the CCI and Stochastic Oscillator are overbought and close to generating sell signals. Connecting the dots, it seems that a bigger pullback is just around the corner.

As you see on the above chart, crude oil extended losses and approached the 50-day moving once again. If this strong support encourages buyers to push the order button, we will likely see a corrective upswing in the coming days. However, if it is broken, we will see further deterioration and the next downside target will be the Jan.27 low at $95.21. At this point it's worth noting that yesterday's downswing materialized on large volume, which confirms the strength of the sellers. Additionally, the CCI and Stochastic Oscillator generated sell signal, which supports the latter scenario.

Having discussed the current situation in light crude, let's take a look at WTI Crude Oil (the CFD).



Quoting our last Oil Trading Alert:

(...) the CFD formed a bearish engulfing pattern (...) such candlestick formation triggered a strong sell off at the end of December. From this perspective, it seems that if oil bulls do not manage to invalidate this bearish pattern, we may see similar price action in the coming days (...) the CCI and Stochastic Oscillator generated sell signals, which is another bearish sign (we saw similar situation in previous months and back then it had a negative impact on the price). Please note that the nearest support is the 50-day moving average (currently around $96.37), which corresponds to the Jan.29 low.

Looking at the above chart, we see that WTI Crude Oil extended its decline, dropped below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and reached the 50-day moving average. As you see on the daily chart, this strong support encouraged oil bulls to act and triggered a small (at least at the moment when these words are written) corrective upswing earlier today. Despite this growth, the CFD still remains below the previously-broken 200-day moving average, which serves as resistance. Additionally, sell signals remain in play supporting the bearish case.

At this point, we should consider two scenarios. On one hand, as long as the CFD remains above the 50-day moving average, further declines are limited and we may see another attempt to move higher (even to the 200-day moving average). On the other hand, we should keep in mind that oil bears have more favorable factors on their side and if the 50-day moving average is broken, we will see a drop to (at least) the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level based on the recent rally.

Summing up, the situation has deteriorated as the CCI and Stochastic Oscillator generated sell signals and crude oil declined (on large volume) to the 50-day moving average. As mentioned earlier, if this strong support encourages oil bulls to act, we will likely see a corrective upswing in the coming day (or days). However, if it is broken, we will see further deterioration and the next downside target will be the Jan.27 low at $95.21. Please note that the current situation in the CFD is similar to what we noticed in the case of light crude, and WTI Crude Oil doesn't give us any particular clues about future's moves in crude oil. Nevertheless, in both cases oil bears have more favorable factors on their side and it seems that further deterioration is just around the corner.

Very short-term outlook: mixed
Short-term outlook: bullish
MT outlook: bullish
LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term): In our opinion, there were no significant changes in crude oil that justify opening short or long positions at the moment. We will keep you informed should anything change, or should we see a confirmation/invalidation of the above.

Thank you.

Nadia Simmons

Sunshine Profits‘ Contributing Author

Oil Investment Updates
Oil Trading Alerts

* * * * *

 

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Nadia Simmons and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Nadia Simmons and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Nadia Simmons is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Nadia Simmons’ reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Nadia Simmons, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules