Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Stock Market: "Relevant Waves Vs. Irrelevant News" - 10th Jul 20
Prepare for the global impact of US COVID-19 resurgence - 10th Jul 20
Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction - 10th Jul 20
Declaring Your Independence from Currency Debasement - 10th Jul 20
Tech Stocks Trending Towards the Quantum AI EXPLOSION! - 9th Jul 20
Gold and Silver Seasonal Trend Analysis - 9th Jul 20
Facebook and IBM Tech Stocks for Machine Learning Mega-Trend Investing 2020 - 9th Jul 20
LandRover Discovery Sport Service Blues, How Long Before Oil Change is Actually Due? - 9th Jul 20
Following the Gold Stock Leaders as the Fed Prints - 9th Jul 20
Gold RESET Breakout on 10 Reasons - 9th Jul 20
Fintech facilitating huge growth in online gambling - 9th Jul 20
Online Creative Software Development Service Conceptual Approach - 9th Jul 20
Coronavirus Pandemic UK and US Second Waves, and the Influenza Doomsday Scenario - 8th Jul 20
States “On the Cusp of Losing Control” and the Impact on the Economy - 8th Jul 20
Gold During Covid-19 Pandemic and Beyond - 8th Jul 20
UK Holidays 2020 - Driving on Cornwall's Narrow Roads to Bude Caravan Holiday Resort - 8th Jul 20
Five Reasons Covid Will Change SEO - 8th Jul 20
What Makes Internet Packages Different? - 8th Jul 20
Saudi Arabia Eyes Total Dominance In Oil And Gas Markets - 7th Jul 20
These Are the Times That Call for Gold - 7th Jul 20
A Reason to be "Extra-Attentive" to Stock Market Sentiment Measures - 7th Jul 20
The Beatings Will Continue Until the Economy Improves - 6th Jul 20
The Corona Economic Depression Is Here - 6th Jul 20
Stock Market Short-term Peaking - 6th Jul 20
Gold’s Major Reversal to Create the “Handle” - 5th July 20
Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve - 5th July 20
Overclockers UK Custom Build PC Review - 1. Ordering / Stock Issues - 5th July 20
How to Bond With Your Budgie / Parakeet With Morning Song and Dance - 5th July 20
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

Crude Oil Price Remains In Consolidation

Commodities / Crude Oil Mar 19, 2014 - 04:47 PM GMT

By: Nadia_Simmons

Commodities

Trading position (short-term, our opinion): Short. Stop-loss orders for crude oil and WTI Crude Oil (CFD): $102.95.

On Tuesday, crude oil gained 1.60% after information that a pipeline connecting Oklahoma storage with Gulf Coast refineries will be open sooner than previously expected. Thanks to this news, light crude rebounded, finishing the day above $99 per barrel.


Yesterday, Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD) informed that the expanded Seaway pipeline will be in service by late May or early June (as a reminder, the company had previously said the expansion would be completed by the end of the second quarter). The 500-mile, 30-inch diameter pipeline runs from storage hub Cushing, Okla. to the Gulf Coast and a new parallel pipeline is being built to expand Seaway's capacity from 400,000 barrels a day to 850,000 barrels a day. At this point it’s worth noting that supplies at Cushing have fallen for six straight weeks and stand at their lowest level since February 2012. Nevertheless, despite shrinking Cushing supplies, analysts expect that today’s EIA report will show that overall domestic crude stocks rose last week, amid lower demand due to seasonal refinery maintenance. If this increase is bigger than expected, it will likely have a negative impact on the price of light crude later in the day.

Having discussed the above, let’s move on to the technical changes in crude oil (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

On the above chart, we see that the very short-term situation has improved slightly as crude oil rebounded sharply and climbed above the 50-day moving average. Despite this corrective upswing, light crude still remains in a consolidation (marked with a blue rectangle). Additionally, the commodity reached the first declining resistance line (marked with red). If it encourages oil bears to act, we may see another attempt to move lower. If this is the case, the downside target will be the lower border of the consolidation range (around $97.55). However, if this line is broken, we may see further improvement and an increase to the 200-day moving average, which still serves as the major resistance (currently at $100.24). At this point it’s worth noting that this area is also reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement based on the recent decline (around $100.37). Please note that yesterday’s upswing materialized on relative small volume (similarly to what we saw in the previous week and also at the beginning of the month), which suggests that the buyers may not be as strong as it seems at first glance.

Having discussed the current situation in light crude, let’s take a look at WTI Crude Oil (the CFD).

On the above chart, we see a situation (just like in the case of crude oil) hasn’t changed much. Although the CFD rebounded yesterday, it still remains in a consolidation around the 200-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Therefore, what we wrote in our last Oil Trading Alert is still up-to-date.

(…) From this perspective, it seems that as long as this resistance is in play, a bigger corrective upswing is not likely to be seen and another attempt to move lower should not surprise us. Nevertheless, taking into account the fact that the CFD remains in a consolidation, we should consider two scenarios. On one hand, if oil bulls break above the nearest resistance and push the price above Wednesday high (which is currently reinforced by the 50-day moving average), we may see an upward move to around $101.60. On the other hand, if they fail and the CFD drops below Wednesday low, we may see a downward move not only to the first downside target (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement around $96.55), but even to around $95.45, where the 70.7% Fibonacci retracement and the Jan.27 low are. Looking at the position of the indicators, we see that they are still overbought, but there are no buy signals at the moment.

Summing up, although the very short-term outlook improved slightly yesterday, the overall situation hasn’t changed much as crude oil remains in the consolidation below the strong resistance zone created by the red declining resistance line, the 200-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Additionally, as mentioned earlier, yesterday’s upswing materialized on relative small volume, which suggests that another downswing can’t be ruled out.
 
Very short-term outlook: bearish
Short-term outlook: mixed with bearish bias
MT outlook: bullish
LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term, our opinion): Short. Stop-loss orders for crude oil and WTI Crude Oil (CFD): $102.95.

Thank you.

Nadia Simmons

Sunshine Profits‘ Contributing Author

Oil Investment Updates
Oil Trading Alerts

* * * * *

 

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Nadia Simmons and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Nadia Simmons and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Nadia Simmons is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Nadia Simmons’ reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Nadia Simmons, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules