Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Canadian Cannabis Stocks CRASH as Canopy Growth Hits a Dead End - 14th Dec 19
Retail Sector Isn’t Dead, and These 6% Dividend Paying Stocks Prove It - 14th Dec 19
Top 5 Ways to Add Value to Your Home - 14th Dec 19
Beware Gold Stocks Downside - 13th Dec 19
Fed Says No Interest Rate Hikes In 2020. What About Gold? - 13th Dec 19
The ABC’s of Fiat Money - 13th Dec 19
Why Jo Swinson and the Lib Dems LOST Seats General Election 2019 - Sheffiled Hallam Result - 13th Dec 19
UK General Election 2019 BBC Exit Poll Forecast Accuracy Analysis - 12th Dec 19
Technical Analysis Update: Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) - Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) - 12th Dec 19
Silver Miners Pinpoint the Precious Metals’ Outlook - 12th Dec 19
How Google Has Become the Worlds Biggest Travel Company - 12th Dec 19
UK Election Seats Forecasts - Tories 326, Labour 241, SNP 40, Lib Dems 17 - 12th Dec 19
UK General Election 2019 Final Seats Per Party Forecast - 12th Dec 19
What UK CPI, RPI INFLATION Forecasts for General Election Result 2019 - 11th Dec 19
Gold ETF Holdings Surge… But Do They Actually Hold Gold? - 11th Dec 19
Gold, Silver Reversals, Lower Prices and Our Precious Profits - 11th Dec 19
Opinion Pollsters, YouGov MRP General Election 2019 Result Seats Forecast - 11th Dec 19
UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 - 11th Dec 19
UK General Election 2019 - Tory Seats Forecast Based on GDP Growth - 11th Dec 19
YouGov's MRP Poll Final Tory Seats Forecast Revised Down From 359 to 338, Possibly Lower? - 10th Dec 19
What UK Economy (Average Earnings) Predicts for General Election Results 2019 - 10th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto's UK General Election Parliamentary Seats Forecast 2019 - 10th Dec 19
Lumber is about to rally and how to play it with this ETF - 10th Dec 19
Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 - 9th Dec 19
Long-term Potential for Gold Remains Strong! - 9th Dec 19
Stock and Financial Markets Review - 9th Dec 19
Labour / Tory Manifesto's Impact on UK General Election Seats Forecast 2019 - 9th Dec 19
Tory Seats Forecast 2019 General Election Based on UK House Prices Momentum Analysis - 9th Dec 19
Top Tory Marginal Seats at Risk of Loss to Labour and Lib Dems - Election 2019 - 9th Dec 19
UK House Prices Momentum Tory Seats Forecast General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Why Labour is Set to Lose Sheffield Seats at General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Gold and Silver Opportunity Here Is As Good As It Gets - 8th Dec 19
High Yield Bond and Transports Signal Gold Buy Signal - 8th Dec 19
Gold & Silver Stocks Belie CoT Caution - 8th Dec 19
Will Labour Government Spending Bankrupt Britain? UK Debt and Deficits - 7th Dec 19
Lib Dem Fake Tory Election Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam General Election 2019 - 7th Dec 19
You Should Be Buying Gold Stocks Now - 6th Dec 19
The End of Apple Has Begun - 6th Dec 19
How Much Crude Oil Do You Unknowingly Eat? - 6th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast - 6th Dec 19
Gold Price Forecast – Has the Recovery Finished? - 6th Dec 19
Precious Metals Ratio Charts - 6th Dec 19
Climate Emergency vs Labour Tree Felling Councils Reality - Sheffield General Election 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What Fake UK Unemployment Statistics Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 6th Dec 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

UK General Election Forecast 2019

Stock Markets Headed Lower into June-Sell in May and Go Away

Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets Apr 30, 2008 - 06:01 AM GMT

By: Donald_W_Dony

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe old stock trader's saying of “sell in May and walk away” appears to be unfolding right on schedule this year. And with the expected major low coming in June, for the next 2 months, investors may wish to sit on the sidelines to watch the show and keep their investing on hold. If the last three major lows (March 2007, August 2007 and January 2008) were any example, the trough in June could be quite interesting. No one can say that this market is boring.

Since 2007, North American equity markets have been moving to a dominant 5-month trading cycle. With recent significant lows in August 2007 and January 2008, the next anticipated trough in late June for U.S. markets (Chart 1) could hold some interesting consequences depending on how this low plays out. Let me explain.

Should the cycle low in late June break down below the 8,330 support line set in January for the NYSE Composite, and then this drop would signal that the bear market is gaining strength and lower numbers can be expected over the summer.
However, if the anticipated low in June holds at the 8330 level, then there is a slightly brighter picture developing for the equity markets. As technical models points to mild upward pressure beginning in July, the New York Stock Exchange Composite would likely find a bear reprieve over the summer until the gravitational pull begins again for the next major low in September.

The outcome of the late June trough will be greatly dictated by what happens in this month. If selling pressure builds in earnest, you can bet that the key 8330 will be broken. The opposite also applies. So, May is the guiding month. Watch it closely.

With so much negative talk about the U.S. economy pulling down Canada alone with it, why is this market advancing so high? It certainly is not because of the normal market leaders (financials and industrials) pushing up. Their performance lately has been anything but stellar. The reason for the rally is very finite. Commodities and particularly energy has allowed the S&P/TSX Composite (Chart 2) to move above the quagmire that has gripped most equity markets around the world. In fact, outside of Brazil and Mexico (both commodity-based markets) Canada's TSX is a bit of a poster child of performance.

But this de-linking of performance from the much larger U.S. markets (and for that matter, most global indexes) is very fragile. Because the lift that the S&P/TSX Composite is receiving is coming from such a narrow group of companies, this recent rise is more like a one legged jump. Any weakness in commodities could topple this energy heavy composite down faster than a tripped acrobat.

For those individuals who want to invest in the Canadian market, they will need to use a rife and certainly not a shotgun to be successful now. The strength is in materials, natural resources and that's it.

During this anticipated major cycle low coming in June, I expect the S&P/TSX Composite to pullback to the 13,400-13,650 zone. There is good solid support at this area. Technical models suggest that July appears to be a time to stabilize.

This article is part of the May newsletter. Additional research can be found on commodities, the economy and global equities in the up coming May newsletter. Go to and click on member login.

Your comments are always welcomed.

By Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA

COPYRIGHT © 2008 Donald W. Dony
Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA has been in the investment profession for over 20 years, first as a stock broker in the mid 1980's and then as the principal of D. W. Dony and Associates Inc., a financial consulting firm to present.  He is the editor and publisher of the Technical Speculator, a monthly international investment newsletter, which specializes in major world equity markets, currencies, bonds and interest rates as well as the precious metals markets.   

Donald is also an instructor for the Canadian Securities Institute (CSI). He is often called upon to design technical analysis training programs and to provide teaching to industry professionals on technical analysis at many of Canada's leading brokerage firms.  He is a respected specialist in the area of intermarket and cycle analysis and a frequent speaker at investment conferences.

Mr. Dony is a member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA).

Donald W. Dony Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules